Trends and Systems you play during the Year
- Thread starter jordan23
- Start date
Betting baseball is funny...Some bookies feel it's too much exposure (with teams being streaky), and don't even take it.
The nice part about baseball is that you just have to win the game.
The not so nice part is that you may have to lay some heavy chalk. Some people will not bet a favorite, no matter what. I have other friends who would never touch an underdog. Guess it is finding the happy medium. I agree with some of the aforementioned posts, that early lines = more exposure. However, the oddsmakers understand this, and won't take a huge beating. The trick is to focus on one team/division. Matchups, how they play each other, home/away, etc. Focus on that. Some good value there. Last year I thought I had a pretty good feel for the Red Sox. First game back from a road trip was always very shaky for them, no matter who the pitcher. Also found that bad teams w/in the division used to give them trouble (Bal, TB, Tor). Laying off the chalk in these situations wasn't a bad idea. However, there would always be value in say, a Yankees series, going against a great pitcher for the other side. I mean if you can get -120 or better on a Schilling or Pedro, it was time to react. Just some observations, wish everyone luck this season!
The nice part about baseball is that you just have to win the game.
The not so nice part is that you may have to lay some heavy chalk. Some people will not bet a favorite, no matter what. I have other friends who would never touch an underdog. Guess it is finding the happy medium. I agree with some of the aforementioned posts, that early lines = more exposure. However, the oddsmakers understand this, and won't take a huge beating. The trick is to focus on one team/division. Matchups, how they play each other, home/away, etc. Focus on that. Some good value there. Last year I thought I had a pretty good feel for the Red Sox. First game back from a road trip was always very shaky for them, no matter who the pitcher. Also found that bad teams w/in the division used to give them trouble (Bal, TB, Tor). Laying off the chalk in these situations wasn't a bad idea. However, there would always be value in say, a Yankees series, going against a great pitcher for the other side. I mean if you can get -120 or better on a Schilling or Pedro, it was time to react. Just some observations, wish everyone luck this season!
few more stolen from these articles
few more stolen from these articles
2-way Parlay big time winning teams last few months of season
"This strategy will revolve around three simple concepts:
1. Betting on the two best teams in each league for the last three months of the season.
2. Making your bets using a two team parlay system.
3. Being consistent with your betting strategy day in and day out for a month at time"
....................
Here's some strong trends from Last season that might hold true 2005.
when coming off being shutout, bet against:
Cinci as a home favorite
Cleveland as a home dog
Cubs as a road favorite
Plus, vs Left-hand starters, bet:
FL when a Home Favorite
SF when a HF
KC over when HF
against Houston as Home Underdog
Cinci as RF
AT as Road Underdog
FL over Road Underdog
KC under as Road Underdog
...............................
below are the articles...
Ron Raymond?s Vs. Lefties Theory
By Ron Raymond
Mar 3, 2005, 14:22
There?s a normal public perception that when a team is going up against a left-handed starter, the opposing team is at a disadvantage and totals bettors, normally think the UNDER is the route to go when playing the O/U. Granted, the southpaws do have some uniqueness to them and it?s even a greater advantage if you can throw out a left handed stopper for the final out. But lets look into the numbers and see if there should be a special advantage given to left-handed hurlers.
Since 1997, when a team is a home favorite vs. a left-handed pitcher, they are 2042-1479 SU for 57.9%. Also, the O/U was 1708 favoring the OVER and the UNDER came in 1659 times with 454 pushes. However, when a team is a home underdog vs. a lefty, they are 609-918-1 SU for 39.8% and the O/U total came in at 724O-735U-69P. I know you?re probably saying, where did that tie come from, but according to my numbers, the White Sox and Twins played to a 1-1 tie on October 3rd, 1999. Now, as far as road teams vs. southpaws do, road favorites are 743-548 SU for 57.5% with the O/U coming in at 614O-619U-58P. It?s tougher to support a road underdog vs. a lefty, as they are 1469-2208 SU for 39.9%, while the O/U is 1810O-1716U-151P.
In brief, home and road favorites have done ok vs. left-handed starters, as the favorites have a combined record of 2785-2027. Plus, there?s a slight edge to the OVER for the favorites, as the OVER came in 2322 times compared to 2278 for the UNDER with 512 pushes.
Here?s a list of teams to watch for this 2005 baseball season when they are in certain roles vs. left-handed starters. In fact, when doing the analysis of the home and road underdogs, what surprised me a bit was the lack of teams with winning records in this spot. Considering it?s a 30-team league, I assumed there would be more teams with a winning record, but you will see there are only a handful of teams with a winning record vs. lefties.
Home Favorites
? Atlanta: 91-50 SU
? Florida: 60-36 SU
? NYY : 116-57 SU
? Oakland : 94-48 SU
? San Francisco: 100-37 SU
? Seattle: 93-52 SU
? K.C.: 49O-29U-3P
Home Underdogs
? Chi Wsox: 18-16-1 SU
? Colorado: 23-22 SU
? Houston: 2-15 SU
? NYY: 3-2 SU
Road Favorites
? Arizona: 42-25 SU
? Atlanta : 62-31 SU
? Cincinnati : 18-8 SU
? L.A.Dodgers : 41-26 SU
? Oakland: 40-28 SU
? Pittsburgh: 3O7U2P
Road Underdogs
? Atlanta : 39-27 SU
? NYY : 26-21 SU
? Florida: 70O-55U-8P
? K.C.: 65O-95U-6P
? San Diego: 89O-68-7P
In conclusion, it proves the publics perception of Lefties vs. teams is a myth in certain aspects and maybe a rule of thumb to approach a left handed starter this season, is to take the favorites and the over. And, if you feel risky, take the dog and the under.
few more stolen from these articles
2-way Parlay big time winning teams last few months of season
"This strategy will revolve around three simple concepts:
1. Betting on the two best teams in each league for the last three months of the season.
2. Making your bets using a two team parlay system.
3. Being consistent with your betting strategy day in and day out for a month at time"
....................
Here's some strong trends from Last season that might hold true 2005.
when coming off being shutout, bet against:
Cinci as a home favorite
Cleveland as a home dog
Cubs as a road favorite
Plus, vs Left-hand starters, bet:
FL when a Home Favorite
SF when a HF
KC over when HF
against Houston as Home Underdog
Cinci as RF
AT as Road Underdog
FL over Road Underdog
KC under as Road Underdog
...............................
below are the articles...
Ron Raymond?s Vs. Lefties Theory
By Ron Raymond
Mar 3, 2005, 14:22
There?s a normal public perception that when a team is going up against a left-handed starter, the opposing team is at a disadvantage and totals bettors, normally think the UNDER is the route to go when playing the O/U. Granted, the southpaws do have some uniqueness to them and it?s even a greater advantage if you can throw out a left handed stopper for the final out. But lets look into the numbers and see if there should be a special advantage given to left-handed hurlers.
Since 1997, when a team is a home favorite vs. a left-handed pitcher, they are 2042-1479 SU for 57.9%. Also, the O/U was 1708 favoring the OVER and the UNDER came in 1659 times with 454 pushes. However, when a team is a home underdog vs. a lefty, they are 609-918-1 SU for 39.8% and the O/U total came in at 724O-735U-69P. I know you?re probably saying, where did that tie come from, but according to my numbers, the White Sox and Twins played to a 1-1 tie on October 3rd, 1999. Now, as far as road teams vs. southpaws do, road favorites are 743-548 SU for 57.5% with the O/U coming in at 614O-619U-58P. It?s tougher to support a road underdog vs. a lefty, as they are 1469-2208 SU for 39.9%, while the O/U is 1810O-1716U-151P.
In brief, home and road favorites have done ok vs. left-handed starters, as the favorites have a combined record of 2785-2027. Plus, there?s a slight edge to the OVER for the favorites, as the OVER came in 2322 times compared to 2278 for the UNDER with 512 pushes.
Here?s a list of teams to watch for this 2005 baseball season when they are in certain roles vs. left-handed starters. In fact, when doing the analysis of the home and road underdogs, what surprised me a bit was the lack of teams with winning records in this spot. Considering it?s a 30-team league, I assumed there would be more teams with a winning record, but you will see there are only a handful of teams with a winning record vs. lefties.
Home Favorites
? Atlanta: 91-50 SU
? Florida: 60-36 SU
? NYY : 116-57 SU
? Oakland : 94-48 SU
? San Francisco: 100-37 SU
? Seattle: 93-52 SU
? K.C.: 49O-29U-3P
Home Underdogs
? Chi Wsox: 18-16-1 SU
? Colorado: 23-22 SU
? Houston: 2-15 SU
? NYY: 3-2 SU
Road Favorites
? Arizona: 42-25 SU
? Atlanta : 62-31 SU
? Cincinnati : 18-8 SU
? L.A.Dodgers : 41-26 SU
? Oakland: 40-28 SU
? Pittsburgh: 3O7U2P
Road Underdogs
? Atlanta : 39-27 SU
? NYY : 26-21 SU
? Florida: 70O-55U-8P
? K.C.: 65O-95U-6P
? San Diego: 89O-68-7P
In conclusion, it proves the publics perception of Lefties vs. teams is a myth in certain aspects and maybe a rule of thumb to approach a left handed starter this season, is to take the favorites and the over. And, if you feel risky, take the dog and the under.
other article
other article
The Bounce Back after an 0-fer in MLB
By Ron Raymond
Mar 7, 2005, 12:47
The Bounce back theory in sports handicapping has different factors and elements, mainly because each sport is special in their own way and for various other reasons. In football, teams can get whipped by a non-conference opponent and not face that team for another 1, 2, or maybe 5 years down the road, depending on the schedule maker.
Nevertheless, aside from the ?revenge factor?, the team that just got smoked will be in ?gut-check? mode the following week and will want to get back on track during the ?bounce-back? game. Same thing for Basketball and Hockey, these sports are lucky in a sense, as they can rebound from a bad outing the very next night without having to think about their past performance for 7 days, as they normally play 2-3 games a week.
Baseball is a strange cat in itself, as ball clubs can get their revenge immediately if they swung cold bats the day or night before, but only if it?s still early in their series. But, each setting is different in baseball, as teams will not face the same starting pitcher each day. Plus, you might have to factor in a night vs. day games or if the teams are playing or coming off a double header. In fact, teams can psyche themselves out at the plate because they?re facing Randy Johnson, but the beauty about baseball, players take it as a personal challenge to get that first hit the next day and then hitting become contagious. In addition, there?s a good chance they won?t meet the same relievers as well due to over usage of their long or middle relievers during the week and maybe the closer is coming off his 4 straight saves in as many nights. Plus, another reason why teams pull ?o-fer?s? at the plate is because they are coming off a long western road trip, and to face a division foe on no days rest, can be tough on the body clock.
I?ve gone through the numbers on how a team does after being shutout in baseball, and I?m not surprised ?Favorites? have done moderately well in most of these findings. However, I?ve noticed in the totals, the OVER has a small edge in every role of the big picture, but not in team-to-team situations. Therefore, teams normally find their bats in the very next game.
Here?s a breakdown of the numbers in different Home and Away situations.
Situations SU Winner OVER/UNDER
Home Favorites 341-259-1 295-279-27
Home Underdogs 144-167-0 173-127-11
Road Favorites 134-101-0 391-347-36
Road Underdogs 324-450 391-856-81
Here?s a team-by-team breakdown after being shutout.
Home Favorites:
- Cincinnati 4-12-1 SU
- Houston 4-1 SU
- K.C. 7-3 SU
- 21-7 SU
- Boston 5 over 14 under 1 p
- Oakland 11 over 3 under
- Philadelphia 12 over 5 under 3 p
Home Underdogs:
- Arizona 1-8 SU
- Chicago Cubs 0-5 SU
- Cincinnati 3-12 SU
- Houston 3-0 SU
- Cleveland 3-12 SU
- Houston 3-0 SU
- L.A.Dodgers 3-0 SU
- Oakland 7-3 SU
- Minnesota 3 under 7 over 1 p
- Oakland 2 over 8 under
Road Favorites:
- Arizona 7-3 SU
- Boston 7-3 SU
- Minnesota 0-3 SU
- Baltimore 1 over 7 under
- Boston 3 over 7 under
- Minnesota 0 over 3 under
- Wash/Mtl 3 over 0 under 1 p
Road Underdogs:
- Chicago Cubs 4-18 SU
- Detroit 13-30 SU
- San Francisco 8-3 SU
- Seattle 3-9 SU
- Cleveland 3 over 12 under 1 p
- Oakland 5 over 11 under
- San Francisco 8 over 3 under
other article
The Bounce Back after an 0-fer in MLB
By Ron Raymond
Mar 7, 2005, 12:47
The Bounce back theory in sports handicapping has different factors and elements, mainly because each sport is special in their own way and for various other reasons. In football, teams can get whipped by a non-conference opponent and not face that team for another 1, 2, or maybe 5 years down the road, depending on the schedule maker.
Nevertheless, aside from the ?revenge factor?, the team that just got smoked will be in ?gut-check? mode the following week and will want to get back on track during the ?bounce-back? game. Same thing for Basketball and Hockey, these sports are lucky in a sense, as they can rebound from a bad outing the very next night without having to think about their past performance for 7 days, as they normally play 2-3 games a week.
Baseball is a strange cat in itself, as ball clubs can get their revenge immediately if they swung cold bats the day or night before, but only if it?s still early in their series. But, each setting is different in baseball, as teams will not face the same starting pitcher each day. Plus, you might have to factor in a night vs. day games or if the teams are playing or coming off a double header. In fact, teams can psyche themselves out at the plate because they?re facing Randy Johnson, but the beauty about baseball, players take it as a personal challenge to get that first hit the next day and then hitting become contagious. In addition, there?s a good chance they won?t meet the same relievers as well due to over usage of their long or middle relievers during the week and maybe the closer is coming off his 4 straight saves in as many nights. Plus, another reason why teams pull ?o-fer?s? at the plate is because they are coming off a long western road trip, and to face a division foe on no days rest, can be tough on the body clock.
I?ve gone through the numbers on how a team does after being shutout in baseball, and I?m not surprised ?Favorites? have done moderately well in most of these findings. However, I?ve noticed in the totals, the OVER has a small edge in every role of the big picture, but not in team-to-team situations. Therefore, teams normally find their bats in the very next game.
Here?s a breakdown of the numbers in different Home and Away situations.
Situations SU Winner OVER/UNDER
Home Favorites 341-259-1 295-279-27
Home Underdogs 144-167-0 173-127-11
Road Favorites 134-101-0 391-347-36
Road Underdogs 324-450 391-856-81
Here?s a team-by-team breakdown after being shutout.
Home Favorites:
- Cincinnati 4-12-1 SU
- Houston 4-1 SU
- K.C. 7-3 SU
- 21-7 SU
- Boston 5 over 14 under 1 p
- Oakland 11 over 3 under
- Philadelphia 12 over 5 under 3 p
Home Underdogs:
- Arizona 1-8 SU
- Chicago Cubs 0-5 SU
- Cincinnati 3-12 SU
- Houston 3-0 SU
- Cleveland 3-12 SU
- Houston 3-0 SU
- L.A.Dodgers 3-0 SU
- Oakland 7-3 SU
- Minnesota 3 under 7 over 1 p
- Oakland 2 over 8 under
Road Favorites:
- Arizona 7-3 SU
- Boston 7-3 SU
- Minnesota 0-3 SU
- Baltimore 1 over 7 under
- Boston 3 over 7 under
- Minnesota 0 over 3 under
- Wash/Mtl 3 over 0 under 1 p
Road Underdogs:
- Chicago Cubs 4-18 SU
- Detroit 13-30 SU
- San Francisco 8-3 SU
- Seattle 3-9 SU
- Cleveland 3 over 12 under 1 p
- Oakland 5 over 11 under
- San Francisco 8 over 3 under
and the rest of the story
and the rest of the story
The Lazy Man's Method to Baseball Profits
By Corey Bachmeier
Now granted, it there were a TRUE Lazy Man?s Method to Betting and WINNING at betting baseball, we would all do it, become rich, and that would be the end of it.
Unfortunately it?s not that simple. What I would like to explore is a simple concept that you can incorporate into your betting strategy that hopefully can bring you some nice profits the latter part of the baseball season.
This strategy will revolve around three simple concepts:
1. Betting on the two best teams in each league for the last three months of the season.
2. Making your bets using a two team parlay system.
3. Being consistent with your betting strategy day in and day out for a month at time.
....In this article I will discuss the results during month of JUNE and how this simple method works.
Most bettors realize that betting on big favorites that are laying the big juice like -180, -200, -220, etc., is A BIG MISTAKE. It is just a bad and very easy way to lose your whole bankroll laying these types of numbers. Discussing these numbers and why you should stay away from them is a discussion in itself...
For the sake of this article we are going to look at the New York Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals. You can make very good arguments that these are the best two teams in baseball, and they did have the two best records in baseball at the end of July. You may be asking, how can I profit on these two teams if betting them as heavy favorites is a fundamental mistake in sports wagering? Here is how: You consistently use both teams in two team parlays.
Many people will tell you to avoid the parlay bet. I agree with that with anything over a two team parlay. Consistently betting the 3,4,5,10, etc., team parlay is not a good way to spend your bankroll, although I even from time to time will lay 10 dollars on a good 5 or 6 teamer, just for entertainments sake, but never more than that.
...This simple system works like this:
Consistently, day in and day out bet a two team parlay, in our example the Yankees and Cardinals, both to win. Because it is a parlay you will in most cases have bettor than even money odds. It?s like betting underdogs in every situation. It is approximately even money when both teams are -240 favorites, (i.e. bet 100 to win 100), which is rare. Below I have some payouts based on a $100 parlay bet. You can see what various payouts would be with different betting lines.
Team A Team B Payout
-110 -110 +264
-120 -120 +236
-130 -130 +213
-140 -140 +193
-150 -150 +177
-160 -160 +164
-170 -170 +152
-180 -180 +141
-190 -190 +132
-200 -200 +125
As you can see it?s essentially like betting on a fairly big underdog, except you betting with two top teams. For example, in the chart above if both teams were -150 favorites, and you were to bet $100 on the two team parlay, the payout would be just the same as betting the same amount on a +177 underdog to win.
So in our example of the Yankees and the Cardinals simply bet them in a two team parlay to win every day that they both play. Now, every team goes through losing streaks, but with top teams these streaks should hopefully few and far between, especially in the second half of the season when they are gearing up for the playoffs.
Below you will see how this system worked in the month of June with the Yankees and Cardinals. I am also going to track this system for the months of July, August, and September to see how the statistics play out.
June 2004
New York Yankees
18 ? 7 Record in June 2004 72%
62-36 Record as of July 26, 2004 63%
St. Louis Cardinals
19 ? 9 Record in June 2004 68%
63 ? 36 Record in June 2004 64%
Parlay Betting System
10 ? 14 Record in June 2004 42%
10 parlay wins = $2026
14 parlay loses = -$1400
PROFIT = $626
(Based on $100 bets)
Longest losing streak ? 3 parlay bets
Longest winning streak ? 4 parlay bets
As you can see above, for the month of June this system proved to be very profitable. It went 10-14, but the profit was roughly $600 dollars, not to bad for placing the same exact bet over and over for one month.
and the rest of the story
The Lazy Man's Method to Baseball Profits
By Corey Bachmeier
Now granted, it there were a TRUE Lazy Man?s Method to Betting and WINNING at betting baseball, we would all do it, become rich, and that would be the end of it.
Unfortunately it?s not that simple. What I would like to explore is a simple concept that you can incorporate into your betting strategy that hopefully can bring you some nice profits the latter part of the baseball season.
This strategy will revolve around three simple concepts:
1. Betting on the two best teams in each league for the last three months of the season.
2. Making your bets using a two team parlay system.
3. Being consistent with your betting strategy day in and day out for a month at time.
....In this article I will discuss the results during month of JUNE and how this simple method works.
Most bettors realize that betting on big favorites that are laying the big juice like -180, -200, -220, etc., is A BIG MISTAKE. It is just a bad and very easy way to lose your whole bankroll laying these types of numbers. Discussing these numbers and why you should stay away from them is a discussion in itself...
For the sake of this article we are going to look at the New York Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals. You can make very good arguments that these are the best two teams in baseball, and they did have the two best records in baseball at the end of July. You may be asking, how can I profit on these two teams if betting them as heavy favorites is a fundamental mistake in sports wagering? Here is how: You consistently use both teams in two team parlays.
Many people will tell you to avoid the parlay bet. I agree with that with anything over a two team parlay. Consistently betting the 3,4,5,10, etc., team parlay is not a good way to spend your bankroll, although I even from time to time will lay 10 dollars on a good 5 or 6 teamer, just for entertainments sake, but never more than that.
...This simple system works like this:
Consistently, day in and day out bet a two team parlay, in our example the Yankees and Cardinals, both to win. Because it is a parlay you will in most cases have bettor than even money odds. It?s like betting underdogs in every situation. It is approximately even money when both teams are -240 favorites, (i.e. bet 100 to win 100), which is rare. Below I have some payouts based on a $100 parlay bet. You can see what various payouts would be with different betting lines.
Team A Team B Payout
-110 -110 +264
-120 -120 +236
-130 -130 +213
-140 -140 +193
-150 -150 +177
-160 -160 +164
-170 -170 +152
-180 -180 +141
-190 -190 +132
-200 -200 +125
As you can see it?s essentially like betting on a fairly big underdog, except you betting with two top teams. For example, in the chart above if both teams were -150 favorites, and you were to bet $100 on the two team parlay, the payout would be just the same as betting the same amount on a +177 underdog to win.
So in our example of the Yankees and the Cardinals simply bet them in a two team parlay to win every day that they both play. Now, every team goes through losing streaks, but with top teams these streaks should hopefully few and far between, especially in the second half of the season when they are gearing up for the playoffs.
Below you will see how this system worked in the month of June with the Yankees and Cardinals. I am also going to track this system for the months of July, August, and September to see how the statistics play out.
June 2004
New York Yankees
18 ? 7 Record in June 2004 72%
62-36 Record as of July 26, 2004 63%
St. Louis Cardinals
19 ? 9 Record in June 2004 68%
63 ? 36 Record in June 2004 64%
Parlay Betting System
10 ? 14 Record in June 2004 42%
10 parlay wins = $2026
14 parlay loses = -$1400
PROFIT = $626
(Based on $100 bets)
Longest losing streak ? 3 parlay bets
Longest winning streak ? 4 parlay bets
As you can see above, for the month of June this system proved to be very profitable. It went 10-14, but the profit was roughly $600 dollars, not to bad for placing the same exact bet over and over for one month.
In choosing the two "best" teams thought it would be a good idea to look at Pinny's team win totals.
Currently...
Yankees 101
Red Sox 95 1/2
Cards 93
Looks like yanks/red sox parlays would be the way to go.
Currently...
Yankees 101
Red Sox 95 1/2
Cards 93
Looks like yanks/red sox parlays would be the way to go.
This one goes back to the early 80's by some guy, I forget his name from Long Beach who said you could make a small fortune betting exhibition and April baseball. Start with a large fortune. His idea was, it took 30-40 games for a current trend to take hold.
1st Game of 4 Game Series
1st Game of 4 Game Series
Posted at another Forum Last Year!
1st game of a 4 game series- Play AGAINST the ROAD Team
1. You Don't need to Play Daily, because they're mostly Mon, Thu, Fri.
2. Someone already tracked this last season (2003) and the win % was around 65-70% or so.
I have the record that was followed posted below. let's first discuss the results at 2004 from 4/8 - 6/3 it went 25-9 = 74% or on $100 wagers $1,738. It was not tracked in the forum past 6/4 (in other words the posts disappeared), and I myself stopped following it on 6/4? don't ask me why I just did
2001 60-56 -1040
2002 90-58 +2780
2003 88-59 +1730
2004 25-9, balance of year unknown?
The above is for all games every home team. Posted by a forum member
However note again that for last season 2004 I only have the results of 25-9 as posted above.
2004 as per forum posting!
17-4 ... Next Update May-15th
100/Unit record from *********.com
8-Apr CWS @ NYY W [+100]
9-Apr ANA @ TEX W [+138] 238
9-Apr CLE @ KC W [+100] 338
15-Apr MIL @ HOU L [-152] 186
16-Apr CIN @ CHC W [+100] 286
16-Apr DET @ CLE W [+100] 386
16-Apr NYY @ BOS W [+131] 517
19-Apr MON @ NYM W [+100] 617
19-Apr OAK @ SEA W [+100] 717
19-Apr SD @ SFO W [+100] 817
23-Apr CIN @ PIT L [-138] 679
26-Apr MON @ SD W [+100] 779
26-Apr SEA @ BAL RAIN - PPD
29-Apr TOR @ CHW W [+100] 879
29-Apr FLA @ SFO L [-100] 779
30-Apr CIN @ HOU W [+100] 879
30-Apr CHC @ STL W [+128] 1007
3-May BOS @ CLE W [+170] 1,177
6-May TB @ ANA [+100] 1,277
6-May TB @ ANA W [+100] 1,277
10-May NYM @ ARZ W [+100] 1,377
10-May NYM @ ARZ W [+100] 1,377
13-May BOS @ TOR W [+152] 1,529
14-May PHI @ COL L [-100] 1,429
Home team in first game of 4 game series is/was:
17-5 SU +11.4 units this season, average runs per game 5.6 - 3.7
86-61 SU +13.8 units last season, average runs per game 5.2 - 4.5
90-59 SU +18.3 units in 2002 season, average runs per game 4.8 - 4.2
In 2001 and 2000 it actually lost money (broke even in 2001, lost 17.3 units in 2000), so it obviously a trend that has developed the last couple of years. Hope it continues
Balance of Games not posted but schedule Was:
Remaining Schedule on first game of 4 game series :
20-May CHW @ MIN
21-May ARI @ FLA
21-May HOU @ CIN
27-May ATL @ PHI
28-May CHC @ PIT
31-May KC @ DET
31-May TB @ MIN
31-May STL @ PIT
31-May SF @ ARI
3-Jun PHI @ ATL
3-Jun FLA @ NYM
3-Jun CLE @ ANA
3-Jun TOR @ OAK
4-Jun SF @ COL
7-Jun STL @ CHC
15-Jun CHC @ HOU
21-Jun CLE @ CHW
21-Jun PIT @ HOU
21-Jun OAK @ ANA
21-Jun LA @ SF
28-Jun TOR @ TB
28-Jun FLA @ ATL
28-Jun MON @ PHI
28-Jun BAL @ KC
28-Jun TEX @ SEA
28-Jun SD @ ARI
5-Jul NYM @ PHI
5-Jul TEX @ CLE
5-Jul CHW @ OAK
8-Jul PIT @ MON
8-Jul DET @ MIN
8-Jul CIN @ MIL
8-Jul HOU @ LA
8-Jul COL @ SD
8-Jul ARI @ SF
15-Jul BAL @ TB
15-Jul MON @ ATL
15-Jul PHI @ NYM
15-Jul NYY @ DET
15-Jul MIN @ KC
15-Jul MIL @ CHC
15-Jul STL @ CIN
15-Jul BOS @ ANA
15-Jul CLE @ SEA
15-Jul LA @ ARI
15-Jul SF @ COL
23-Jul KC @ CLE
26-Jul PHI @ FLA
26-Jul NYM @ MON
26-Jul ARI @ HOU
26-Jul CHC @ MIL
26-Jul ATL @ PIT
26-Jul LA @ COL
26-Jul SF @ SD
29-Jul BAL @ NYY
29-Jul CHW @ DET
29-Jul SEA @ ANA
29-Jul OAK @ TEX
2-Aug CLE @ TOR
5-Aug SEA @ TB
6-Aug TEX @ BAL
6-Aug TOR @ NYY
6-Aug CLE @ CHW
6-Aug ANA @ KC
6-Aug OAK @ MIN
9-Aug COL @ PHI
16-Aug PIT @ STL
19-Aug ATL @ LA
23-Aug LA @ MON
23-Aug SD @ NYM
23-Aug BAL @ OAK
23-Aug MIN @ TEX
26-Aug DET @ BOS
26-Aug NYY @ TOR
26-Aug CHW @ CLE
26-Aug KC @ SEA
27-Aug SF @ ATL
30-Aug FLA @ NYM
30-Aug PIT @ MIL
6-Sep TB @ NYY
6-Sep PHI @ ATL
6-Sep KC @ DET
6-Sep CHW @ TEX
9-Sep MIL @ CIN
9-Sep HOU @ PIT 5-GM
9-Sep BOS @ SEA
9-Sep SD @ COL
10-Sep MIN @ DET
13-Sep MON @ FLA
13-Sep ATL @ NYM
13-Sep TEX @ OAK
13-Sep COL @ ARI
13-Sep SD @ LA
14-Sep ANA @ SEA
16-Sep CHC @ CIN
20-Sep STL @ MIL
23-Sep KC @ CHW
23-Sep MIN @ CLE
27-Sep CIN @ CHC
27-Sep SEA @ OAK
27-Sep ANA @ TEX
27-Sep COL @ LA
29-Sep TOR @ BAL
30-Sep FLA @ PHI
30-Sep CHW @ KC
30-Sep MIL @ STL
1st Game of 4 Game Series
Posted at another Forum Last Year!
1st game of a 4 game series- Play AGAINST the ROAD Team
1. You Don't need to Play Daily, because they're mostly Mon, Thu, Fri.
2. Someone already tracked this last season (2003) and the win % was around 65-70% or so.
I have the record that was followed posted below. let's first discuss the results at 2004 from 4/8 - 6/3 it went 25-9 = 74% or on $100 wagers $1,738. It was not tracked in the forum past 6/4 (in other words the posts disappeared), and I myself stopped following it on 6/4? don't ask me why I just did
2001 60-56 -1040
2002 90-58 +2780
2003 88-59 +1730
2004 25-9, balance of year unknown?
The above is for all games every home team. Posted by a forum member
However note again that for last season 2004 I only have the results of 25-9 as posted above.
2004 as per forum posting!
17-4 ... Next Update May-15th
100/Unit record from *********.com
8-Apr CWS @ NYY W [+100]
9-Apr ANA @ TEX W [+138] 238
9-Apr CLE @ KC W [+100] 338
15-Apr MIL @ HOU L [-152] 186
16-Apr CIN @ CHC W [+100] 286
16-Apr DET @ CLE W [+100] 386
16-Apr NYY @ BOS W [+131] 517
19-Apr MON @ NYM W [+100] 617
19-Apr OAK @ SEA W [+100] 717
19-Apr SD @ SFO W [+100] 817
23-Apr CIN @ PIT L [-138] 679
26-Apr MON @ SD W [+100] 779
26-Apr SEA @ BAL RAIN - PPD
29-Apr TOR @ CHW W [+100] 879
29-Apr FLA @ SFO L [-100] 779
30-Apr CIN @ HOU W [+100] 879
30-Apr CHC @ STL W [+128] 1007
3-May BOS @ CLE W [+170] 1,177
6-May TB @ ANA [+100] 1,277
6-May TB @ ANA W [+100] 1,277
10-May NYM @ ARZ W [+100] 1,377
10-May NYM @ ARZ W [+100] 1,377
13-May BOS @ TOR W [+152] 1,529
14-May PHI @ COL L [-100] 1,429
Home team in first game of 4 game series is/was:
17-5 SU +11.4 units this season, average runs per game 5.6 - 3.7
86-61 SU +13.8 units last season, average runs per game 5.2 - 4.5
90-59 SU +18.3 units in 2002 season, average runs per game 4.8 - 4.2
In 2001 and 2000 it actually lost money (broke even in 2001, lost 17.3 units in 2000), so it obviously a trend that has developed the last couple of years. Hope it continues
Balance of Games not posted but schedule Was:
Remaining Schedule on first game of 4 game series :
20-May CHW @ MIN
21-May ARI @ FLA
21-May HOU @ CIN
27-May ATL @ PHI
28-May CHC @ PIT
31-May KC @ DET
31-May TB @ MIN
31-May STL @ PIT
31-May SF @ ARI
3-Jun PHI @ ATL
3-Jun FLA @ NYM
3-Jun CLE @ ANA
3-Jun TOR @ OAK
4-Jun SF @ COL
7-Jun STL @ CHC
15-Jun CHC @ HOU
21-Jun CLE @ CHW
21-Jun PIT @ HOU
21-Jun OAK @ ANA
21-Jun LA @ SF
28-Jun TOR @ TB
28-Jun FLA @ ATL
28-Jun MON @ PHI
28-Jun BAL @ KC
28-Jun TEX @ SEA
28-Jun SD @ ARI
5-Jul NYM @ PHI
5-Jul TEX @ CLE
5-Jul CHW @ OAK
8-Jul PIT @ MON
8-Jul DET @ MIN
8-Jul CIN @ MIL
8-Jul HOU @ LA
8-Jul COL @ SD
8-Jul ARI @ SF
15-Jul BAL @ TB
15-Jul MON @ ATL
15-Jul PHI @ NYM
15-Jul NYY @ DET
15-Jul MIN @ KC
15-Jul MIL @ CHC
15-Jul STL @ CIN
15-Jul BOS @ ANA
15-Jul CLE @ SEA
15-Jul LA @ ARI
15-Jul SF @ COL
23-Jul KC @ CLE
26-Jul PHI @ FLA
26-Jul NYM @ MON
26-Jul ARI @ HOU
26-Jul CHC @ MIL
26-Jul ATL @ PIT
26-Jul LA @ COL
26-Jul SF @ SD
29-Jul BAL @ NYY
29-Jul CHW @ DET
29-Jul SEA @ ANA
29-Jul OAK @ TEX
2-Aug CLE @ TOR
5-Aug SEA @ TB
6-Aug TEX @ BAL
6-Aug TOR @ NYY
6-Aug CLE @ CHW
6-Aug ANA @ KC
6-Aug OAK @ MIN
9-Aug COL @ PHI
16-Aug PIT @ STL
19-Aug ATL @ LA
23-Aug LA @ MON
23-Aug SD @ NYM
23-Aug BAL @ OAK
23-Aug MIN @ TEX
26-Aug DET @ BOS
26-Aug NYY @ TOR
26-Aug CHW @ CLE
26-Aug KC @ SEA
27-Aug SF @ ATL
30-Aug FLA @ NYM
30-Aug PIT @ MIL
6-Sep TB @ NYY
6-Sep PHI @ ATL
6-Sep KC @ DET
6-Sep CHW @ TEX
9-Sep MIL @ CIN
9-Sep HOU @ PIT 5-GM
9-Sep BOS @ SEA
9-Sep SD @ COL
10-Sep MIN @ DET
13-Sep MON @ FLA
13-Sep ATL @ NYM
13-Sep TEX @ OAK
13-Sep COL @ ARI
13-Sep SD @ LA
14-Sep ANA @ SEA
16-Sep CHC @ CIN
20-Sep STL @ MIL
23-Sep KC @ CHW
23-Sep MIN @ CLE
27-Sep CIN @ CHC
27-Sep SEA @ OAK
27-Sep ANA @ TEX
27-Sep COL @ LA
29-Sep TOR @ BAL
30-Sep FLA @ PHI
30-Sep CHW @ KC
30-Sep MIL @ STL
I like terryrays system, I may give that a try later on and hope that a couple of teams pull ahead and are worthy of that distinction..........RRC, the system calls for plays the last three months of the season, tho. So we don't "know" who those teams are, yet. So, Pinny's early win totals don't come into play here, I don't think.
Now, I do have a sure fire, lock,outlaw type, bet the ranch system that hasn't failed the past 5 years. It WILL produce winners on a regular season basis & I can almost guarantee it.
All you have to do is bet against THE HITMAN's plays. While I hit football very good & very steadily (I honestly can't remember my last losing year) and at least break even on basketball, I rarely have a winning baseball season, somehow finding a way to come up minus units probably 8 or 9 of the past 10 years. (Fantasy bases excluded, although I don't play anymore, I had a winner & a second & a fourth in the 5 years I played, turning a worthwhile profit). I follow the general rules, lay off of big faves, don't bet any parlays above 2-3 teamers, play hotter teams & pitchers, I just find a way somehow to come up minus units. I get a lot of bad breaks I guess, that don't even out. This puzzles me, as they say bases is the easiest to make $ at. I usually go down more than the vig by the end of the season. And, yes, I have curtailed my betting amounts to maybe 1/4 of a good football bet. Maybe this season it will be for only "chump change" or "pizza money" I'm not sure.I don't even know why I play, I guess it's because it is a long summer with not much else going on, & I refuse to get involved with horses on a steady basis.........the takeout is just tooooo much to go up against unless you have decent or inside info.
I won't clutter up this serious thread anymore........but, you guys wanted systems, so I gave you one ! So, if I start posting plays on a regular basis....................y'all will know what to do.
Now, I do have a sure fire, lock,outlaw type, bet the ranch system that hasn't failed the past 5 years. It WILL produce winners on a regular season basis & I can almost guarantee it.
All you have to do is bet against THE HITMAN's plays. While I hit football very good & very steadily (I honestly can't remember my last losing year) and at least break even on basketball, I rarely have a winning baseball season, somehow finding a way to come up minus units probably 8 or 9 of the past 10 years. (Fantasy bases excluded, although I don't play anymore, I had a winner & a second & a fourth in the 5 years I played, turning a worthwhile profit). I follow the general rules, lay off of big faves, don't bet any parlays above 2-3 teamers, play hotter teams & pitchers, I just find a way somehow to come up minus units. I get a lot of bad breaks I guess, that don't even out. This puzzles me, as they say bases is the easiest to make $ at. I usually go down more than the vig by the end of the season. And, yes, I have curtailed my betting amounts to maybe 1/4 of a good football bet. Maybe this season it will be for only "chump change" or "pizza money" I'm not sure.I don't even know why I play, I guess it's because it is a long summer with not much else going on, & I refuse to get involved with horses on a steady basis.........the takeout is just tooooo much to go up against unless you have decent or inside info.
I won't clutter up this serious thread anymore........but, you guys wanted systems, so I gave you one ! So, if I start posting plays on a regular basis....................y'all will know what to do.
when over under is 7 usually goes under. i know this cause everythime the o/u is 7 i bet the over and more than likely it goes under. is it just me or does this happen alot?!?!
First up Hi to you all and I hope you all have a profitable baseball season.
I have worked on numerous systems, trends and angles whilst I have been ill and what holds good for one year invariably goes bad the next.
I have several solid systems which to be honest I don't use but continue to track. They have held the "test of time", that being, had winning seasons, every season for at least the last five years.
One of my favourites is as follows;
Note: All my trends/systems start from May onwards. That way most clubs have had at least 15 games, so in affect starters have pitched three starts each.
Play UNDER with road American League teams that have an on base percentage of .360 or worse on the season and where the posted total is 10 or higher.
372-264 since 1997 (+82.4 units)
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (146-105, +30.6 units).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (268-190, +59.9 units).
For all those that wager on baseball don't let the bad beats get :mj16:
I have worked on numerous systems, trends and angles whilst I have been ill and what holds good for one year invariably goes bad the next.
I have several solid systems which to be honest I don't use but continue to track. They have held the "test of time", that being, had winning seasons, every season for at least the last five years.
One of my favourites is as follows;
Note: All my trends/systems start from May onwards. That way most clubs have had at least 15 games, so in affect starters have pitched three starts each.
Play UNDER with road American League teams that have an on base percentage of .360 or worse on the season and where the posted total is 10 or higher.
372-264 since 1997 (+82.4 units)
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (146-105, +30.6 units).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (268-190, +59.9 units).
For all those that wager on baseball don't let the bad beats get :mj16:
Gone through my folders of various systems and dug out a few more. It's not worth giving out systems that only come up with 10 or so plays a season. It's a lot of hard work for little return.
Play UNDER the posted total with a red hot hitting team batting .333 or better over their past 5 games in the second half of the season. 178-113 since 1997.
Play against road teams with a money line of +100 to +150 inclusive with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and has a tired bullpen having pitched 13 or more innings over their last 3 games. 104-38 (+49.8 units) since 1999.
Play on any team with an excellent bullpen posting an ERA of 3.00 or less on the season and is facing an opponent with a starter that has an ERA of 3.70 or better on the season. 176-124 (+64.1 units) since 1999.
slight variation to that of above;
Play on all teams that are favoured -100 to -150 inclusive with an excellent bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.00 or less on the season and is playing against an opponent with an average bullpen with an ERA ranging between 3.75 to 4.50 on the season. 149-79 (+53 units) since 1999.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
Play UNDER the posted total with a red hot hitting team batting .333 or better over their past 5 games in the second half of the season. 178-113 since 1997.
Play against road teams with a money line of +100 to +150 inclusive with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and has a tired bullpen having pitched 13 or more innings over their last 3 games. 104-38 (+49.8 units) since 1999.
Play on any team with an excellent bullpen posting an ERA of 3.00 or less on the season and is facing an opponent with a starter that has an ERA of 3.70 or better on the season. 176-124 (+64.1 units) since 1999.
slight variation to that of above;
Play on all teams that are favoured -100 to -150 inclusive with an excellent bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.00 or less on the season and is playing against an opponent with an average bullpen with an ERA ranging between 3.75 to 4.50 on the season. 149-79 (+53 units) since 1999.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
Great ones British Bulldog. Have any others. Anyone else have any. Great work guys. We all gotta work together.
Just back from hospital a couple of days ago. On the road to recovery which is a relief. I can tell you all, there were some bloody scary moments along the way. All I need now is some nice warm weather.
Anyway it appears that I am now the only one contributing to this thread and unless some others are prepared to share some of their secrets then few are going to benefit.
Anyway, here's a few more for APRIL GAMES ONLY . Remember, I allow atleast 10 games to have been played before stepping in.
Playing against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after having lost 6, or 7 of their last 8 games in April are 42-57 (+27.6 units) since 1997.
Playing against road favorites with a win percentage of 62% or better for the season when playing another winning team in April are 22-43 last 2 seasons.
Playing against road favorites of -175 or less after their bullpen allowed 4 or more runs in their last game are 10-22 last few years in April.
Playing UNDER the posted total with all teams allowing 3.3 or less runs per game on the season in April games and has a posted total of 8.5 to 10 inclusive are 49-17 last five seasons.
Anyway it appears that I am now the only one contributing to this thread and unless some others are prepared to share some of their secrets then few are going to benefit.
Anyway, here's a few more for APRIL GAMES ONLY . Remember, I allow atleast 10 games to have been played before stepping in.
Playing against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after having lost 6, or 7 of their last 8 games in April are 42-57 (+27.6 units) since 1997.
Playing against road favorites with a win percentage of 62% or better for the season when playing another winning team in April are 22-43 last 2 seasons.
Playing against road favorites of -175 or less after their bullpen allowed 4 or more runs in their last game are 10-22 last few years in April.
Playing UNDER the posted total with all teams allowing 3.3 or less runs per game on the season in April games and has a posted total of 8.5 to 10 inclusive are 49-17 last five seasons.
