TRENDS (I need your help!!)

[The Big Tease]

OK....I myself am a trend player through and through. I think with all sports...well they are pretty unpredictable. BUT, that is where this post comes in. There are certain ways that teams will react to certain situations. We need to be able to research these trends and post them on this thread. Each week we shoudl be able to take this list of trends that we have created and find a set of 3-4 games where the most trends falls for that particular team. I will start out by listing some trends and systems that are on Madjack's resource page.

PLEASE help in posting some of your valid trends on this thread and maybe we can come up with something that we can consistanly hit some winners with!!!

 

[GM]

Ok, I'll start. I've noticed Cincinnati has a tendency to lose almost every single week!

 

[The Big Tease]

**Bet on a home dog if it won its last game as a straight up dog. This is 73-37-3 since 1988

**Bet on an underdog of 7 or more in interconference games if the opponant has two consecutive divisional opponants next on the schedule.

**Bet against a team that has won and covered two stright games by scoring over 30 points and giving up less than 12 in those 2 games.

**Play a home dog that allowed 40 or more points in its previous game

**Bet on any home team that rushes on average of over 120 yds and gives up less than 100 yds per game rushing.

**Bet against teams that have covered 3 straight, and bet on teams that have failed to cover in three stright

**Bet on an underdog if it lost its last game stright up as a fav of 7 or more

**bet on an underdog that has a Pass per attempt average of 5.9 or less

 

[The Big Tease]

bet on a team playing at home that is coming off a road loss of more than 13 points.

 

[Skinar]

You sound like Dr Bob, which is not a bad thing. Actually, some of your trends have some validity I believe, there are psychological factors at work that involve not only the players but the bettors as well. For example, betting against a team that has covered three straight probably works because the public will be all over a team like that and cause an inflated line, with the opposite being true for a team that fails three times in a row. Dr. Bob takes this approach on all of his handicapping I believe and he has done pretty well over the years, he feels that the lines in general are pretty close as far as stats are concerned so he only looks for situations where the public misperceives the value in the line or where teams traditionally are in a 'let down' mode or just the opposite. Perhaps it was Dr. Bob who made the observation that teams who lose a star player tend to cover more often than not - which was the case with Philadelphia this Monday night.

The trick is separating the trends that are valid from the trends that are totally useless, such as 'Team X has covered every Tuesday night after a loss on Sunday for the past 10 years' (speaking of the NBA). Something like this sounds completely useless to me even if it has happened for the past 10 years.

Actually, I like your idea of building a library of such trends, the real trick would be to build some type of rules database that would recognize all matches, otherwise this could really take some time to find the hits.

Good Luck.

 

[The Big Tease]

skinar---i totally agree...some trends carry NO weight whatsoever. the only trends that i am looking for deal strictly with how a team reacts after a certain performance. No days of the week or day game versus night game crap. That stuff is for suckers. I think we can get a great list of trends goin here if we get people interested

 

[The Big Tease]

bet against a road favorite after a monday night win

 

[The Big Tease]

**Bet against a team that is attempting to cover as a road fav for the second stright game

**Bet against a team playing a third stright road game

**Bet against any team that has scored 90 or more points over the last 3 games combined.

**Bet on any underdog that scored 10 or less points its last game.

**Bet on any team that has scored 20 or less points in 3 stright games

**Bet against any team that just had their 4 or more game winning streak snapped

 

[The Big Tease]

bet on divisional road dogs of 3.5 pts or more

 

[The Big Tease]

OK....here is the system I will be using. I will research to see what teams fall into which trends, and each team will be awarded a pt value. if a team qualifys under a trend, they are awarded a point. If their opponant has a "negative trend" I will just award that point to that team as well.

With what is posted here right now I have these as plays.

1 point will be a lean
2 points will be a 1 star play
3 points will be a 2 star play and so on

3 STAR PLAY
MINNESOTA

2 STAR PLAYS
CAROLINA
PHILLY

1 STAR PLAYS
DALLAS
BUFFALO

LEANS
Arizona
San Fran
New Orleans
San Diego
Houston
Detroit
NY Giants
Cincinnati

 

[The Big Tease]

Also, Nolans trend of betting against road favs that won their last game straight up.

 

[GRIFFIN]

Patriots trends: Favorite on 1-8 ats
11-35 ats log as a non-division fav, and 2-12 ats as road fav of
>3 pts. 0-3 ats in detiot division this year

 

[british bulldog]

I have surfed many sites since the start of the football season and noting trends which I think will be worth while.

I am collating all these trends and my aim is to submit in pdf form and send to madjacks for all those interested to view and use.

I presume these are the type of trends you are looking for;

SINCE 1989 PLAY AGAINST A TEAM WHO HAS WON ITS PREVIOUS TWO GAMES SCORING AT LEAST 31 POINTS IN EACH OF THEM. THIS TREND IS 23-48-3.

This trend is 0-4 this season (all winners)

This trend throws up this week: play against NY Jets


Another trend

PLAY AGAINST ROAD FAVS AFTER 5 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE WINS. 38-19 ATS

If Baltimore covered the spread against Tennessee last Sunday (24th NOV.) this trend would have been successful. I did not note the line or do I know the score without searching.



My trend file which I am trying to produce will have trends for league and for teams, although teams change personnel on a regular basis I feel these do not hold as much credence as league trends.

Your thoughts please.

 

[GM]

Check out IE's page, there's a new one there, and it applies to the first game today.

Go against any team that won but didn't cover last week, and is favored again this week. 17-1 this year, and 10-0 when the favored team is on the road.

 

[GM]

Got some more for you...

Got some more for you...

Dug up a few more I had in an old file. Note, I can't vouch for how they have performed in the last season or so, but these were the records up to about the end of the '00 season. Sorry in advance for any of these which you already have, but I can't remember what is in this entire thread....

* Play on a road dog of 9 or more if both teams lost on the road last week (15-8, 65.2% since '90).

* Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).

* Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).

* Play on a home team that won it's last two games SU as a dog (40-22-1, 64.5% since '89).

* Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).

* Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).

* Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (31-13-1, 70.5% since '98).

* Play on a home dog when both teams scored 10 or less last week (49-30-1, 62% since '89).

* Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).

* Play on a Monday Night home team that was on the road last week if their opponent was at home last week (84-46-2, 64.6% since '80).

* Play on a Monday Night home team whose opponent won it's last game SU @ home (60-34-2, 63.8% since '85).

 

[GM]

By the way, it's being picky I know...

But these are all systems, not trends. Trends are team-specific (ie. New England is 5-18 in their last 23 games when blah blah blah...). Systems apply league-wide (ie. bet on a dog when this, or a home team when that, etc).

 

[The Big Tease]

I edited the name of the thread for ya GM,

Also, thanks for those that have contributed!! Hopefully there are more players like me that can use something like this!

We are 1-0 so far with Dallas!

 

[djv]

Please also rememebr when you get into trends. Make sure same coach is there. A team will trend as the coach coaches. And make sure when useing a trend it's useful not BS. As some one said above Team A has coverd second week of season for 16 in a row. Means Nothing. System plays that covers more then 5 years can be good. And starting with some from just 5/6 years back can be better then real old ones, due to free agency. The NFL has change a lot last 5/6 years. Nice tread. Good info.

 

[Statman02]

I was thinking about the now well known trend of the AFC W being 16/2/1 as dogs so I started checking the other divisions to see if they showed any trends.....here they are .....all this year:

AFC S 8/1 as home dogs.......Jax is 2/0.....plays pitt as HD this week

AFC S 6/17 as Fav.....Ind is 2/6...plays Hou this week

NFC W 6/16/1 as Fav....St L 2/7.....plays Phil......and SF 3/5/1...plays Sea

 

[The Big Tease]

we went 4-1 this week using these systems!!! And the game we lost...Minnesota we got screwed!!! I think I will keep with this for awhile