Trends that could be your friend during NCAA tourney action

[WildBillPicks7]

Teams that average more than 73 pts and allow less than 73 pts per game have made it to the Elite round and won the Nat'l Championship 15 out of last 16 years, only disruption was U Conn who won in 2014? Teams that follow this script: Arizona, Puke, Kansas, Coach Cal's one and doners, UNC, Ducks, Nova.

Fade #2 seeds favored by more than 18 pts vs an opponent who won SU the last game: Fades are Kentucky & L'ville

Teams with Head Coaches with best first round SU record favored less than 2 pts:


Michigan 7-2, currently -1
Michigan St 14-5, currently an underdog

#1 Seeds less than 20 pts are 8-1 off BB SU wins: none
#2 Seeds fav > 18 pts aare 0-14-2 ATS vs opponent off a SU win: Puke, L'ville, Kentucky
#3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 27-8-1 ATS: Florida State, Baylor, UCLA

#6 Seeds favored <5 pts are 22-7-2 ATS off a SU ATS Loss: Maryland, Cincy, Creighton
#9 Seeds favored are 3-10 ATS L 9 years: Vanderbilt

Best ATS records in 1st round:

Butler, Oregon, Nova, VCU, Xavier, Iowa St, Purdue, Nevada, UNC-Wilm, Wichita St, UCLA, West Virginia


Worst ATS records in 1st round:

Cincy, Okie State, North Carolina, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Arizona, Creighton, Duke, St Mary's, Marquette (Wake Forest & Providence both LOST)


Best Straight Up record in 2nd round:

Michigan St, Florida, L'ville, Wisky, Baylor, Marquette, Arizona, West Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier

Best ATS Record in 2nd round:

Arizona, Florida, Lv'ille, Baylor, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Xavier, West Virginia, Marquette, Duke, Michigan, Wisky

Worst teams ATS record in 2nd round:

Arkansas, Creighton, Maryland, Virginia, Notre Dame, Villanova, UCLA

 

[Subcloser]

Great numbers thanks for posting...forgive me but not sure about the #1 seed historical trend with Nova (#1 Seeds less than 20 pts are 8-1 off BB SU wins: Villanova)...???

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Great numbers thanks for posting...forgive me but not sure about the #1 seed historical trend with Nova (#1 Seeds less than 20 pts are 8-1 off BB SU wins: Villanova)...???

U R Correct Sub, there shouldn't have been a #1 seed posted team. All are/were over 20 pt favs.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

A #12 has beaten a #5 team SU in each of last 5 seasons, make that 6 with Middle Tenn opening as a +1 dog steaming to -1 1/2 fav in less than 24 hrs, beat Minnesota by 9 pts Straight up!!

:0074

VCU primed for St Mary's? compare strength of schedules, only edge for St Mary's is they are playing this game in Salt Lake City at the Salt Palace, however, VCU has been there for 3 days to get used to the altitude and court.

Major money move on ML and pts on this matchup, St Mary's opened -4 1/2.

GL!!

 

[T]

Bill do you like Mich St vs UM ?

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Bill do you like Mich St vs UM ?

Izzo lost in opening round last yr to Middle as a big fav, they are dogs this time, this time of year Izzo's team plays great however, losing Eron Harris really hurts them, Jim is clutch this time of year as well, he's got some kids for the Canes that matchup well vs Sparty and bench depth aids Canes as well.

I took Canes -1 when the line came out. Sparty is 5-12 Su on the road, the U is 7-9 on the rd.

Both teams on paper is a pick em. #8 seed vs #9 seed, 8's usually dominate or win with lines are less than 3 1/2 pts.

GL!!:0008

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Teams that average more than 73 pts and allow less than 73 pts per game have made it to the Elite round and won the Nat'l Championship 15 out of last 16 years, only disruption was U Conn who won in 2014? Teams that follow this script: Arizona, Puke, Kansas, Coach Cal's one and doners, UNC, Ducks, Nova.

Fade #2 seeds favored by more than 18 pts vs an opponent who won SU the last game: Fades are Kentucky & L'ville

Teams with Head Coaches with best first round SU record favored less than 2 pts:


Michigan 7-2, currently -1
Michigan St 14-5, currently an underdog

#1 Seeds less than 20 pts are 8-1 off BB SU wins: none
#2 Seeds fav > 18 pts aare 0-14-2 ATS vs opponent off a SU win: Puke, L'ville, Kentucky
#3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 27-8-1 ATS: Florida State, Baylor, UCLA

#6 Seeds favored <5 pts are 22-7-2 ATS off a SU ATS Loss: Maryland, Cincy, Creighton
#9 Seeds favored are 3-10 ATS L 9 years: Vanderbilt

Best ATS records in 1st round:

Butler, Oregon, Nova, VCU, Xavier, Iowa St, Purdue, Nevada, UNC-Wilm, Wichita St, UCLA, West Virginia


Worst ATS records in 1st round:

Cincy, Okie State, North Carolina, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Arizona, Creighton, Duke, St Mary's, Marquette (Wake Forest & Providence both LOST)


Best Straight Up record in 2nd round:

Michigan St, Florida, L'ville, Wisky, Baylor, Marquette, Arizona, West Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier

Best ATS Record in 2nd round:

Arizona, Florida, Lv'ille, Baylor, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Xavier, West Virginia, Marquette, Duke, Michigan, Wisky

Worst teams ATS record in 2nd round:

Arkansas, Creighton, Maryland, Virginia, Notre Dame, Villanova, UCLA

Team in bold/black followed the trend, teams bold/red failed to follow the trend in day 1.

One trend I didn't post and missed, Maryland was 1-6 as a fav >2 and <7 pts, Xavier was 3-1 as a fav or dog <3.

Today added trends, Marquette 1-8 fav or dog of 5 pts or less

S Carolina 0-3 L 3 in tourney

Seton Hall 2-10 line is less than 4 pts vs opp off Loss (Arkansas lost to Kentucky in SEC Chmp)

Louisville is just 2-10 as fav 22 pts or less

Okie St 0-4 L4, Michigan is 9-3 as favs less than 6 pts

Kentucky 0-3 L3 in first round as fav

Dayton is 4-1 dog more than 5 pts / Wichita St is 7-1 vs #9-#11 seeds, 1-4 as a fav

Baylor is 1-3 L4

Michigan St 6-2 as dog <5 pts, Miami under Larrananga is 22-2 Su as fav

Oregon is 4-0 in 1st round

Rhode Island is 3-1 as a dog of more than 7 pts they are now currently a fav, Creighton is 1-8 L9

Kent is 0-3 L3, UCLA is 5-0 vs opp off SU W, 6-1 as DD fav in 1st rd

Cincy is 1-5 L6, Kansas St was 1-5 as Dogs now 2-5 as dogs winning play in , they finished as 1 1/2 pt favs vs Wake Forest and lastly K State is 1-4 playing #4 seeds or higher now 2-4 after beating Wake Forest.

 

[IX_Bender]

Fla St is bolded as to following the #3 seed trend but they infact, did not cover.

Thanks for the info/trends though.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Dogs were 9-7 yesterday, last yr 6-10, day 1 of 1st round, totals went, 14-4 over.