Trophee Lancome

[Stanley]

Trophee Lancome

The European Tour rolls into Paris and the result is an awkward marriage between haute couture and golf. Nick Faldo has dismissed it as a sham before now, but with Ryder Cup points at stake he's back. Surprisingly only Vijay Singh of the PGA Tour contingent are back this year. Two years ago David Duval, Fred Couples and Mark O'Meara all finished in the top-10, nevertheless there is a strong turnout from Europe's elite.

The course itself is not long - a par-71 at 6903 yards - when the emphases firmly on shot-making. Water is a factor on the front nine and trees and narrow fairways a factor on the back nine. The greens are just about the best in Europe with Mark O'Meara comparing them to those at Pebble Beach. With the exception of last year, this is a course on which only the best players can score well, with course form being especially important this week.

The top-two ranked are Colin Montgomerie and Lee Westwood, though both will probably be overlooked in value terms. Monty's putting is very poor at the moment and Westwood has a poor record on this course and intimated at the weekend that he has been having difficulty concentrating recently since moving house. Instead, the 1994 winner Vijay Singh may represent better value if odds of around 15/1 can be attained. He holds the tournament record and his recent win in Taiwan suggests that his injury worries are over. Other possibilities include Miguel Angel Jimenez who won this event in 1998 and was 10th in 196 and 1998 and Jarmo Sandelin who may not be in the best of form, but has a great record in this event. Any final plays will, as usual, be made after the tee-times have been announced and a better idea of the projected weather is formed.

Back with matchup plays tomorrow.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays:

Passing over Monty and Westwood as their single-figure odds can't be justified in value terms, so instead I'll opt for Darren Clarke, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Nick Faldo as the outright plays this week. Romero and Clarke were the best players on view last week by quite a margin, but Romero had the luck with holed fairway shots and chip-ins, while Clarke couldn't putt at all. They were described last week as the worst greens on Tour and so patience was needed, and this is something Clarke is not famous for. This week they about the best on Tour and if his putting stroke has not been destroyed by last week's antics, Clarke is in great form to make the 12/1 available at Ladbrokes look worth the play.

Jimenez showed some of his former form in Switzerland last week and on a course designed for the good ball-strikers he should be able to build on that. His record here is excellent as well: he won in 1998 ahead of Duval, Couples and O'Meara; he has also finished in the top-10 on two other occasions since 1996 and was 2nd in 1994. At 33/1 with Ladbrokes he is definitely worth an e/w punt.

It has been a long time since I laid money on Nick Faldo, but he looked in great form last week and has committed himself fully to gaining a Ryder Cup place before the end of the year. Motivated and rejuvenated he looks very attractive at 50/1 at Paddy Power where the e/w bet is paid on the first five places. His course form is excellent - he has only one round from twenty-four over par here in the 1990s and has been in the top-10 four times, finishing 17th and 25th on the other occasions. He is no fan of the side-shows here, but he would be a very popular winner and he is finally looking capable of being one again. To cap it all, he has an excellent draw being paired with Monty and Westwood and has Mark James in the group in front - time for some target golf!!!


Finding the lines very unfriendly this week, so just a couple of 72-hole plays so far:

Gary Orr to beat Andrew Coltart -115 @ the Starnet books
Orr currently stands top of the European Tour greens in regulation stats, so it is something of a surprise that his course form here is less than stellar, but an excellent opportunity to oppose a player whose 3-year record here reads missed cut, 57th, missed cut

Pierre Fulke to beat Patrik Sjoland -125 @ Easybets
The winner of this event last year, Fulke suffered an understandable reaction the week after winning the Scottish PGA three weeks ago, but his form had been excellent beforehand and should resume this week; Sjoland's game has been unreliable for 18 months

Eduardo Romero to beat Retief Goosen -111 @ DAS
Both very talented, but Goosen lacks self-belief to move into the higher tiers of world golf; Romero shouldn't be lacking any self-belief after last week and while he won't win again he should be too strong for the South African

 

[Stanley]

Injury update:

Colin Montgomerie is reportedly troubled by a back injury - the first time in his career. Even more of a reason to oppose him this week.

 

[Stanley]

Adding:

Eduardo Romero to beat Angel Cabrera -111 @ William Hill
Cabrera's power not necessary on this course and his very poor driving accuracy could be a problem this week; the stats shouldn't matter for Romero after last week's confidence-builder

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays:

Dean Robertson to beat Santiago Luna -111 @ DAS
Greg Owen to beat Miguel Angel Martin -111 @ DAS [2 units]

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-1 and -1.22 units

Split the plays today, though was surprised at the Owen loss. He was well ahead at the halfway stage, but came home in 43 to lose by four

Robertson had a comfortable nine-shot victory over Luna. Just one 72-hole play was decided at the cut: Pierre Fulke defeated Patrik Sjoland by a solitary shot as they finished the right sides of the cut line. Elsewhere, Orr trails Coltart by two, while Romero is one shot ahead of Cabrera and level with Goosen.

 

[Stanley]

A large weekend field, so once again they're playing in 3-balls and that means only DAS will have head-to-head matchups

Just one second round play:

Vijay Singh to beat Stephen Allan -167 @ DAS [2 units]

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 1-0-0 and +2.00 units

An easy win for Vijay and so they should be at that price

He beat Allan by seven shots. In the 72-hole plays, Orr now leads Coltart by one, but Romero trails to both Goosen and Cabrera now, by five and one shots respectively. The outright plays are looking a little promising: Jimenez and Faldo may need 65s tomorrow to gain top-5 spots, but with Darren Clarke in 2nd place behind Alex Cejka who has not won a tournament since 1995 - which was the last time he was leading after 54 holes - there's eery reason to be optimistic.

 

[Stanley]

4th round plays:

Phillip Price to beat Gary Evans -143 @ DAS
Nick Faldo to beat Raphael Jacquelin -125 @ DAS [3 units]
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Paul Lawrie -125 @ DAS

Would love to throw a couple of units at Monty [-222], but have already got burned today on one heavy favorite so will ignore my 'line' and leave it.

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 2-1-0 and +2.75 units for the day; 5-5-0 and +1.16 units for the week

Easy ten-shot victory for Price over Evans, while Faldo defeated Jacquelin by two shots. The only loss was with Jimenez whose 69 was no match to Lawrie's 67. The three remaining 72-hole plays all ended up as losses, though by only one shot for Orr to Coltart and Romero to Cabrera

Goosen won the event and in the process, Romero trailed home eight shots behind.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.50 units

Clarke never got his nose in front and finished 2nd, one shot behind Goosen, to pick up a small place win. Faldo shot 66 in the final round, but it was a day for lower scoring and he could never make up enough ground; he finished 12th. The other play, Jimenez, finished three shots further back in 24th position.

European Tour ytd:
Matchups/props: 92-69; +33.64 units
Outright plays: 10-27; +45.84 units