09:00 PM SOC SEMIFINALS [26517] ARGENTINA -1-149 over USA, COPA AMERICA
07:05 PM MLB [951] SFO GIANTS -158 ( J CUETO -R / W BOSCAN -R )
07:10 PM MLB [964] CLE INDIANS -163 ( B SNELL -L / C KLUBER -R )
08:05 PM MLB [976] TEX RANGERS -184 ( A DESCLAFANI -R / C LEWIS -R )
1 unit bet pays 5.80 ....betdsi line
07:10 PM [954] MIA MARLINS -1.5 -120 ( B NORRIS -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
08:10 PM [966] HOU ASTROS -150 ( H SANTIAGO -L / C MCHUGH -R )
07:05 PM [970] BAL ORIOLES -170 ( L PERDOMO -R / T WILSON -R )
07:05 PM [972] TOR BLUE JAYS -200 ( P CORBIN -L / M ESTRADA -R )
1 unit bet pays 6.28 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-80, -7.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074 :drinky::mj06:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick who the Padres view as a part of their future rotation, is looking to build off his first win as a starter. He?s developed a solid sinker recently, which has upped his ground-ball rate to 56 percent this season.
Bosc?n has pitched 12.2 innings of relief for the Pirates this season and has performed well, allowing four runs in 12.1 innings, good for a 2.92 ERA to go along with a 1-0 record. He has made nine starts at Triple-A this season, posting a 3.33 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 48.2 innings of work.
Under is 13-3 in Estrada?s last 16 home starts, team has won his last 6 starts overall
Norris has exceeded expectations during the three starts he's made since returning to the rotation. The veteran hurler has displayed a livelier fastball and produced a more efficient strikeout/walk rate.
If we're going to give Kluber a pass based on his expected ERA, then we need to point out the opposite is occurring with Marco Estrada, as the Toronto Blue Jays right-hander checks in with a 2.58 ERA, considerably better than his 4.04 FIP and 4.54 xFIP. As a fly-ball pitcher, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) should be below average, but a 0.188 mark on the heels of 0.216 is inexplicable, especially since his hard-hit, medium-hit and soft-hit distribution is nothing special. He has allowed very few line drives, which keeps the BABIP low, but to date, research does not support this being a repeatable skill. Perhaps there's a reason Estrada is able to out-pitch his peripherals that will be unearthed as we collect better data, or perhaps he's another example of a pitcher who's lucky until his luck runs out...he actually has a history of outperforming his peripherals and I believe in his Changeup that is making all of this possible - to a degree.
James Paxton will be making his fifth start of the year and only his 35th career start. His ERA looks pretty solid, but when you take a deeper look at the numbers, it?s quite lucky he?s been able to keep it so low. He has a batting average against of .304 and his WHIP is 1.55. Those are numbers of someone with an ERA twice of what he has. Now either Paxton is fantastic with runners on base or in scoring position, or he?s just been lucky to not have been scored more upon. My guess is the latter. I don?t expect him to last very long on Tuesday.
Betcha didn?t know: The Diamondbacks have caught fire of late by winning four straight and six of their last eight games away from Chase Field. Arizona heads north of the border to face Toronto as Patrick Corbin heads to the mound for the D-backs. The home/road splits on Corbin are remarkable as Arizona owns an 0-7 record in his seven home starts, but a solid 5-2 mark on the highway as the D-backs are a +165 away underdog against the Blue Jays tonight.
Blake Snell will be making his third start of the year for the Rays. He?s given up only one earned run in each of his two starts, although he did give up five runs total in his latest start and took the loss in the game. The youngster is 23 and the Rays hope he can prove to them that he can break into the Rays starting lineup for years to come. In Triple A he threw 62 innings last year for 90 strikeouts, so he has some good stuff. We?ll see if that translates to the majors.
Aaron Nola - 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Why did we have to move on to this? I love me some Easy A, and he hasn't allowed 4 ER since the middle of April. This came against the Jays and you damn well should expect him to rebound next time out against the Twins.
Tyler Duffey - 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. This is like seeing your ex-girlfriend's photos on your Facebook timeline. I THOUGHT I DEFRIENDED YOU.
Reds vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9?
Texas, is an easy home run park and the Reds pick up the DH for this interleague series. Cincinnati is on a 9-4-1 run over the total on the road, plus 11-4-1 over away against a right-handed starter. Anthony DeSclafani goes for the Reds with a good ERA, but don't be fooled: He's thrown only 8+ innings and has allowed 20 base runners! The Over is 18-7-1 in Reds last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Texas has a Top 11 offense and is 10-1-1 over the total in Colby Lewis' last 12 interleague starts. He has a great road ERA but it is 4.50 ERA in this park. And the Over is 18-7-1 in Lewis' last 26 starts with 4 days of rest.
Seattle at Detroit
Play: Under 8.5
The buy sign appears to be on Seattle's James Paxton who has looked very sharp over his last three starts. Paxton's velocity is way up (mid-90's) which has his strikeout rate just below 12 per nine innings. He's also managed to improve his command with a respectable six walks over 22 innings. Despite command and mechanical issues throughout his career, Paxton still flashes an impressive 3.13 ERA over 187 innings. After a slow start to the year, Justin Verlander has found his stride -- and his ability to miss bats with 64 strikeouts over his last 58.1 innings. He's no doubt been a bit fortunate with only 75 hits allowed in 93 innings, but he's pitched like a middle-of-the-rotation arm for much of the season and I don't see any major "red flags" that scream serious regression at this point. What should also help both starters tonight is umpire Mark Ripperger who over last four seasons has produced nearly 61% unders over a 74 game sample. In 13 games behind the dish this season, his games have averaged only 5.6 runs. We'll look that way for tonight's contest with 8.5 even money currently widely available.
Seattle Mariners + over Detroit Tigers
After showing some promise in a brief call-up in 2014 James Paxton proved not ready for primetime struggling at the big league level last season. At nearly age 28, patience may be wearing thin for the left-hander with a big-time arm but in four starts so far this season Paxton may be finally realizing his potential. His strikeout rate in the small sample is nearly 11.9 K/9 and he owns a 2.86 ERA. Paxton has taken two losses in his four starts but seven unearned runs have been factored in with some tough breaks in his first two starts back with the Mariners. Paxton owns a very low ERA and FIP despite a .403 BABIP that is sure to come down and with his swing-and-miss rate the ceiling is very high for Paxton to help the Mariners chase down a playoff spot.
Opposing Paxton will be one of the American League's best and most well known starters with Justin Verlander in the midst of a resurgent season. Verlander has been a big part of keeping the Tigers afloat at .500 so far this season but there is reason to be a little suspicious of the numbers for the former MVP and Cy Young winner. His BABIP is .271 as he has caught some breaks and his groundball rate is very similar to last season when the right-hander greatly struggled and well off the pace of his best seasons. Detroit has not been the strong hitting team vs. left-handed pitching that they generally have been in recent seasons, going just 8-10 this year vs. left-handed starters and batting 20 points worse as a team in those matchups.
In contrast the Mariners are one of the league's best scoring teams vs. right-handed pitching posting 5.3 runs per game. Seattle is in a bit of a slide having lost seven of the last nine games on this long road trip but in last night's lengthy game the Mariners out-hit the Tigers 19-14 despite the loss and Seattle's bullpen was preserved better than Detroit's with the Tigers having five relievers pitch at least an inning. Verlander is capable of another good outing but Seattle looks promising in a bounce-back spot with underdog pricing.
United States vs Argentina
Play: Argentina -1 -140
The minimum goal for USA was their presence in the semi-finals, and since fate brought them against the biggest favorites, Argentina, their work is cut out for them. To make matters worse, 3 players are unavailable for team USA due to suspension. Argentina are coming into this match in the back of a 4-1 easy win against Venezuela, and they are hoping they can win this tournament for the first time after 23 years and 3 failed finals.
The initial goal for USA is reached, their presence in the semi-finals was a must, considering that they are the hosts of this year?s Copa America Centenario. In the quarter final against Ecuador, it didn?t take long for team USA to open the score, as they entered the match with very much enthusiasm and confidence. Clint Dempsey struck a nice header in the 22nd minute to open the score and after a few dangerous chances created by Ecuador, team US managed to double their goals in the 65th minute, when Dempsey served an easy goal to Gyasi Zardes who just pushed the ball in the back of the net. Ecuador pushed and managed to score in the 74th minute, which worried USA for a bit, as they were close to equalising at least three more times. Klinsmann will not be able to count on the services of Jermaine Jones after he was sent-off, and also Alejandor Bedoya and Bobby Wood who accumulated yellow cards.
Argentina were dominant in their game once again, after they overcame the obcstacle that was Venezuela fairly easily with 4-1. Argentina were up by 2-0 with two goals by Gonzalo Higuain before the half hour mark. In the final moments of the first half, goalkeeper Romero showed cold blood and deflected a penalty kick by Seijas. Argentina exploited their opponents mistakes, with Messi and Lamela scoring one goal each for the final 4-1. Lionel Messi was once again in the spotlight who scored a goal and handed out two assists. With his goal he is now tied in the first place of Argentina?s top scorers with legendary striker Gabriel Batistuta. Messi is also the player with the most assists(8.) in the history of the Copa America. Argentina will now be fully ready and prepared to play against USA, hoping to reach the final and contest their first Copa America trophy after 23 years. The last time they won was back in 1993, but they have reached the final three times ever since, having won none, with losses to Brazil in 2004 and 2007, and last year against Chile.
Argentina are plowing through every match with fierce spirit, and the coach and players feel that this year they have the perfect opportunity to capture this specific trophy after 23 years. They easily overcame Venezuela in their previous match and they will be looking to bring some momentum over to this game. On the other hand, USA will have the support of the fans, but they will be missing 3 key players in their squad. I think that USA?s campaign will end here, it will be a huge upset if it doesn?t. Messi and the Argentines have a grade A opportunity to reach the final and have hopes to finally capture the elusive Copa America.
07:05 PM MLB [951] SFO GIANTS -158 ( J CUETO -R / W BOSCAN -R )
07:10 PM MLB [964] CLE INDIANS -163 ( B SNELL -L / C KLUBER -R )
08:05 PM MLB [976] TEX RANGERS -184 ( A DESCLAFANI -R / C LEWIS -R )
1 unit bet pays 5.80 ....betdsi line
07:10 PM [954] MIA MARLINS -1.5 -120 ( B NORRIS -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
08:10 PM [966] HOU ASTROS -150 ( H SANTIAGO -L / C MCHUGH -R )
07:05 PM [970] BAL ORIOLES -170 ( L PERDOMO -R / T WILSON -R )
07:05 PM [972] TOR BLUE JAYS -200 ( P CORBIN -L / M ESTRADA -R )
1 unit bet pays 6.28 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-80, -7.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074 :drinky::mj06:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick who the Padres view as a part of their future rotation, is looking to build off his first win as a starter. He?s developed a solid sinker recently, which has upped his ground-ball rate to 56 percent this season.
Bosc?n has pitched 12.2 innings of relief for the Pirates this season and has performed well, allowing four runs in 12.1 innings, good for a 2.92 ERA to go along with a 1-0 record. He has made nine starts at Triple-A this season, posting a 3.33 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 48.2 innings of work.
Under is 13-3 in Estrada?s last 16 home starts, team has won his last 6 starts overall
Norris has exceeded expectations during the three starts he's made since returning to the rotation. The veteran hurler has displayed a livelier fastball and produced a more efficient strikeout/walk rate.
If we're going to give Kluber a pass based on his expected ERA, then we need to point out the opposite is occurring with Marco Estrada, as the Toronto Blue Jays right-hander checks in with a 2.58 ERA, considerably better than his 4.04 FIP and 4.54 xFIP. As a fly-ball pitcher, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) should be below average, but a 0.188 mark on the heels of 0.216 is inexplicable, especially since his hard-hit, medium-hit and soft-hit distribution is nothing special. He has allowed very few line drives, which keeps the BABIP low, but to date, research does not support this being a repeatable skill. Perhaps there's a reason Estrada is able to out-pitch his peripherals that will be unearthed as we collect better data, or perhaps he's another example of a pitcher who's lucky until his luck runs out...he actually has a history of outperforming his peripherals and I believe in his Changeup that is making all of this possible - to a degree.
James Paxton will be making his fifth start of the year and only his 35th career start. His ERA looks pretty solid, but when you take a deeper look at the numbers, it?s quite lucky he?s been able to keep it so low. He has a batting average against of .304 and his WHIP is 1.55. Those are numbers of someone with an ERA twice of what he has. Now either Paxton is fantastic with runners on base or in scoring position, or he?s just been lucky to not have been scored more upon. My guess is the latter. I don?t expect him to last very long on Tuesday.
Betcha didn?t know: The Diamondbacks have caught fire of late by winning four straight and six of their last eight games away from Chase Field. Arizona heads north of the border to face Toronto as Patrick Corbin heads to the mound for the D-backs. The home/road splits on Corbin are remarkable as Arizona owns an 0-7 record in his seven home starts, but a solid 5-2 mark on the highway as the D-backs are a +165 away underdog against the Blue Jays tonight.
Blake Snell will be making his third start of the year for the Rays. He?s given up only one earned run in each of his two starts, although he did give up five runs total in his latest start and took the loss in the game. The youngster is 23 and the Rays hope he can prove to them that he can break into the Rays starting lineup for years to come. In Triple A he threw 62 innings last year for 90 strikeouts, so he has some good stuff. We?ll see if that translates to the majors.
Aaron Nola - 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Why did we have to move on to this? I love me some Easy A, and he hasn't allowed 4 ER since the middle of April. This came against the Jays and you damn well should expect him to rebound next time out against the Twins.
Tyler Duffey - 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. This is like seeing your ex-girlfriend's photos on your Facebook timeline. I THOUGHT I DEFRIENDED YOU.
Reds vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9?
Texas, is an easy home run park and the Reds pick up the DH for this interleague series. Cincinnati is on a 9-4-1 run over the total on the road, plus 11-4-1 over away against a right-handed starter. Anthony DeSclafani goes for the Reds with a good ERA, but don't be fooled: He's thrown only 8+ innings and has allowed 20 base runners! The Over is 18-7-1 in Reds last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Texas has a Top 11 offense and is 10-1-1 over the total in Colby Lewis' last 12 interleague starts. He has a great road ERA but it is 4.50 ERA in this park. And the Over is 18-7-1 in Lewis' last 26 starts with 4 days of rest.
Seattle at Detroit
Play: Under 8.5
The buy sign appears to be on Seattle's James Paxton who has looked very sharp over his last three starts. Paxton's velocity is way up (mid-90's) which has his strikeout rate just below 12 per nine innings. He's also managed to improve his command with a respectable six walks over 22 innings. Despite command and mechanical issues throughout his career, Paxton still flashes an impressive 3.13 ERA over 187 innings. After a slow start to the year, Justin Verlander has found his stride -- and his ability to miss bats with 64 strikeouts over his last 58.1 innings. He's no doubt been a bit fortunate with only 75 hits allowed in 93 innings, but he's pitched like a middle-of-the-rotation arm for much of the season and I don't see any major "red flags" that scream serious regression at this point. What should also help both starters tonight is umpire Mark Ripperger who over last four seasons has produced nearly 61% unders over a 74 game sample. In 13 games behind the dish this season, his games have averaged only 5.6 runs. We'll look that way for tonight's contest with 8.5 even money currently widely available.
Seattle Mariners + over Detroit Tigers
After showing some promise in a brief call-up in 2014 James Paxton proved not ready for primetime struggling at the big league level last season. At nearly age 28, patience may be wearing thin for the left-hander with a big-time arm but in four starts so far this season Paxton may be finally realizing his potential. His strikeout rate in the small sample is nearly 11.9 K/9 and he owns a 2.86 ERA. Paxton has taken two losses in his four starts but seven unearned runs have been factored in with some tough breaks in his first two starts back with the Mariners. Paxton owns a very low ERA and FIP despite a .403 BABIP that is sure to come down and with his swing-and-miss rate the ceiling is very high for Paxton to help the Mariners chase down a playoff spot.
Opposing Paxton will be one of the American League's best and most well known starters with Justin Verlander in the midst of a resurgent season. Verlander has been a big part of keeping the Tigers afloat at .500 so far this season but there is reason to be a little suspicious of the numbers for the former MVP and Cy Young winner. His BABIP is .271 as he has caught some breaks and his groundball rate is very similar to last season when the right-hander greatly struggled and well off the pace of his best seasons. Detroit has not been the strong hitting team vs. left-handed pitching that they generally have been in recent seasons, going just 8-10 this year vs. left-handed starters and batting 20 points worse as a team in those matchups.
In contrast the Mariners are one of the league's best scoring teams vs. right-handed pitching posting 5.3 runs per game. Seattle is in a bit of a slide having lost seven of the last nine games on this long road trip but in last night's lengthy game the Mariners out-hit the Tigers 19-14 despite the loss and Seattle's bullpen was preserved better than Detroit's with the Tigers having five relievers pitch at least an inning. Verlander is capable of another good outing but Seattle looks promising in a bounce-back spot with underdog pricing.
United States vs Argentina
Play: Argentina -1 -140
The minimum goal for USA was their presence in the semi-finals, and since fate brought them against the biggest favorites, Argentina, their work is cut out for them. To make matters worse, 3 players are unavailable for team USA due to suspension. Argentina are coming into this match in the back of a 4-1 easy win against Venezuela, and they are hoping they can win this tournament for the first time after 23 years and 3 failed finals.
The initial goal for USA is reached, their presence in the semi-finals was a must, considering that they are the hosts of this year?s Copa America Centenario. In the quarter final against Ecuador, it didn?t take long for team USA to open the score, as they entered the match with very much enthusiasm and confidence. Clint Dempsey struck a nice header in the 22nd minute to open the score and after a few dangerous chances created by Ecuador, team US managed to double their goals in the 65th minute, when Dempsey served an easy goal to Gyasi Zardes who just pushed the ball in the back of the net. Ecuador pushed and managed to score in the 74th minute, which worried USA for a bit, as they were close to equalising at least three more times. Klinsmann will not be able to count on the services of Jermaine Jones after he was sent-off, and also Alejandor Bedoya and Bobby Wood who accumulated yellow cards.
Argentina were dominant in their game once again, after they overcame the obcstacle that was Venezuela fairly easily with 4-1. Argentina were up by 2-0 with two goals by Gonzalo Higuain before the half hour mark. In the final moments of the first half, goalkeeper Romero showed cold blood and deflected a penalty kick by Seijas. Argentina exploited their opponents mistakes, with Messi and Lamela scoring one goal each for the final 4-1. Lionel Messi was once again in the spotlight who scored a goal and handed out two assists. With his goal he is now tied in the first place of Argentina?s top scorers with legendary striker Gabriel Batistuta. Messi is also the player with the most assists(8.) in the history of the Copa America. Argentina will now be fully ready and prepared to play against USA, hoping to reach the final and contest their first Copa America trophy after 23 years. The last time they won was back in 1993, but they have reached the final three times ever since, having won none, with losses to Brazil in 2004 and 2007, and last year against Chile.
Argentina are plowing through every match with fierce spirit, and the coach and players feel that this year they have the perfect opportunity to capture this specific trophy after 23 years. They easily overcame Venezuela in their previous match and they will be looking to bring some momentum over to this game. On the other hand, USA will have the support of the fans, but they will be missing 3 key players in their squad. I think that USA?s campaign will end here, it will be a huge upset if it doesn?t. Messi and the Argentines have a grade A opportunity to reach the final and have hopes to finally capture the elusive Copa America.
