trying a new method of picking games

[KotysDad]

I've toyed with this the past couple years and had marginal success, so I'm gonna post a play this week with it. The kiss of death I'm sure, but we'll see. Anyway, here is what I'm doing.....

This idea is this. Take a game for example...Indy @ Houston. Lets say the actual game line was Indy -1. You'd have to believe everyone and their brother would be shouting "Indy's a lock. Vegas is giving money away this week." Of course we know Vegas doesnt do that, so when I see a game like this I try to bite the bullet and go the other way, as hard as it may be.

Now, lets look at the other extreme. Let's say Indy -10 was the actual line. Most people would say "How can a 2-0 team at home be getting that many points....way too many points. Gimme Houston!!". So again, I bite the bullet and go the other way.

So what am I getting at? I start at the two extremes and try to whittle the line down a point where I think "Joe Square" would be stumped. Then I look at the game and if the line is higher than my "number", I take the favorite. If the line is less than my "number" I take the dog.

Of course, my method for settling on my "number" is totally subjective. I dont claim to use anything but common sense to come up with this number.

So...I did this for about 6 games this week. The other games I couldnt get a feel for so I let them go. I actually settled on a number of 5.5 for the Indy/Hou game, so a line of Indy -6 is too close so I passed. I was within 1 point of 4 of the other 5 games too, so I passed on those.

But there is one game I didnt pass on. My number for Wash/NYG was 7 (again, totally subjective) Wash is -3.5, so my pick is....

NY Giants +3.5 (Win)

:shrug:

Gonna try this each week and see how it goes.

 

[Morris]

Lost me on this one. Your # for the Wash/Gia game is 7. Therefore you think Wash should be -7. The actual line is Wash -3'. If you think Wash is 7 points better than the Giants why take the Giants only getting 3'?

 

[KotysDad]

I dont think the line should be 7. I think 7 is where "Joe Square" would be stumped. The lower the number from 7, the more Joe Square likes the Skins, so I go the other way.

I guess it's just a more formal way of being a contrarian. You have to look at my extreme examples with Indy pk and indy -10 to understand why I like the Giants.

 

[Agent 0659]

Sounds similar to the Billy Blastoff system.

 

[KotysDad]

Sounds similar to the Billy Blastoff system.

Yes, it's the same principle except he probably had some computer spitting out his "numbers", whereas I just do it subjectively based on what I follow, read in the papers and hear on tv.

 

[BadAngel]

Kotysdad, not a bad thought. I capped the NFL this week and that is 1 of the 4 sides I came up with so far. That looks like a sucker line for Wash. I like the NYG too. Good luck.

BA

 

[Bellagio]

Sounds pretty good.

 

[hedgehog]

Sounds similar to the Billy Blastoff system.

just what I was thinking. I wonder where that guy is these days?

 

[KotysDad]

Let's try this again.

Week 4 picks (in order of confidence)

Oakland Raiders +4

San Diego Chargers -11.5

Philadelphia Eagles -3

 

[Agent 0659]

just what I was thinking. I wonder where that guy is these days?

I remember a thread where he quit or something, I think he even sold the software....:shrug:

 

[spang]

Sounds similar to the Billy Blastoff system.

Just remember, to fully get the maximum benefits from the Billy Blastoff system, one must include the mysterious Q factor into the mix. The Q factor
is truly the key to a long life,happiness and profitable handicapping.

 

[hawkeye]

The Q stood for QUACK!!

 

[spang]

The Q stood for QUACK!!

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:


Thanks for the amstel light on the keyboard, I about choked to death when I read that. Yeah, he was a real piece of work.

 

[Agent 0659]

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

 

[KotysDad]

I like Q-factors? :shrug:

 

[Senor Capper]

:00x9

 

[justin22g]

i always try to handicap games... especially for college ball... i get a list of games on sunday or monday before lines come out and i set my own lines... then i bet in favor... it has done pretty well for me... but im no handicapper!

 

[BGFalcon]

Billy Blastoff was actually Carl Spackler posting under an alias.

 

[ezpickin]

Green Bay laying a meager point at hapless Minny HAS to be at the top of the "this line makes no sense" picks...your system should spit out the Vikes as the pick of the week...

 

[KotysDad]

Green Bay laying a meager point at hapless Minny HAS to be at the top of the "this line makes no sense" picks...your system should spit out the Vikes as the pick of the week...

You're probably right, but I didnt come up with a "number" for this one simply because I didnt feel like I had a good enough impression or how good or bad the Vikings really are. It's probably obvious to some, but for whatever reason I havent been paying much attention to their games.

There are still a few teams I just dont have a good feel for either because I havent read anything about them or just havent been paying close enough attention for whatever reason, so instead of trying to guess at a number based on other factors, I totally pass on it.

Another thing is.....Green Bay totally mystifies me for a few reasons, so I dont even attempt to gauge what others might think about their level of play.

You'll probably notice that most of my games will involve eastern teams and an occasional high profile team (like San Diego).


I prefer this method to alot of others, but my biggest problem is getting "good" at setting my initial numbers. Some games I feel confident about the number I set in my head,and others I come up a number but really dont have much confidence in it for some reason (call it intuition). :shrug: When that happens I try to totally disregard the game.

For now just having fun with it,and not betting too much $ on any one game.