Trying something

[Big Daddy]

I have been trying something the past week and have had some pretty good success with it. Not sure if it is just a run of good luck, or if there is actually something to it. I will be posting my plays the rest of the regular season (unless they really turn to crap) and see if there is something to it. What I have been doing is similar to what Nolan is doing, except where Nolan is playing 1st qtr and 1st half plays, I have been playing 1st qtr, 2nd qtr, and 3rd qtr in games with playoff-bound teams against non-playoff teams, especially if the playoff-bound team is at home. I do not play the 4th qtr, since that usually gets to be garbage time in these types of games.

Tonight's plays:

Minn 1st qtr -3
Minn 2nd qtr -2.5
Minn 3rd qtr -2.5

Port 1st qtr -4
Port 2nd qtr -3.5
Port 3rd qtr -3.5

All plays are for 2 units. My goal is to hit 2 out of 3 qtrs in each game. Lets see what happens.

 

[Big Daddy]

Yesterday we went 1-2 with the T-wolves and 1-1 and 1 push with Portland. Record after day 1 stands at 2-3 (-2.6 units). Not a good start.

Today, only 1 game fits the profile. NY at Sac.

Playing for 2 units each:

Sac 1st qtr -4
Sac 2nd qtr -3.5
Sac 3rd qtr -3.5

 

[nighthorse]

Nice twist to the theory, Big Daddy. You even got it right on the 4th qt. way to go!

 

[Big Daddy]

Thanks nighthorse.

System went 3-0 yesterday when the Knicks decided not to show up. This is what I am hoping for the rest of the season in these types of games. Record after day 2 of the experiment stands at 5-3 (+3.40 units)

3 games today fit the profile. Hou at Orl, Atl at Det, and Clips at Sea.

Again, playing 2 units on each:

Orl 1st qtr -2
Orl 2nd qtr -2
Orl 3rd qtr -2

Det 1st qtr -2
Det 2nd qtr -1'
Det 3rd qtr -2

Sea 1st qtr -2
Sea 2nd qtr -1'
Sea 3rd qtr -2

 

[Big Daddy]

A little bit of a setback yesterday going 4-5. Record after day 3 stands at 9-8 (+0.40 units).

Today 2 games fit the profile. Wash at NJ and Hou at Miami.

2 units each:

NJ 1st qtr -3
NJ 2nd qtr -3
NJ 3rd qtr -3

Mia 1st qtr -2
Mia 2nd qtr -1'
Mia 3rd qtr -1'

 

[wufdude]

Cool idea...Where do you get 3rd quarter lines before tip-off? I would think this would be based on half-time scores. Maybe I'm missing something...Thanks.

 

[Big Daddy]

I use Olympic for basketball. You can wager on each quarter before the game starts. Once game starts, you have to wait until halftime to get a 2nd half line.

 

[wufdude]

One thing that has gotten me with this has been favorites that jump out to big 1Q leads are not covering the 2Q (Orl, Sea yesterday and Char tonight) I guess it's tough to predict this but I just keeping losing juice.

 

[Big Daddy]

Got our 2 out of 3 with NJ yesterday, but Mia let us down by winning 1st qtr big, and then quitting the rest of the game and losing the 2nd and 3rd qtr. Ended up 3-3 on the day, for a 4-day total of 12-11 (-0.20 units). I'm going to continue to plug away and see if this can work.

Today, 3 games fit the profile: Atl at Char, Chi at Det, and SA at Den.

2 units each:

Char 1st qtr -2
Char 2nd qtr -2
Char 3rd qtr -2

Det 1st qtr -3
Det 2nd qtr -3
Det 3rd qtr -3

SA 1st qtr -5
SA 2nd qtr -4
SA 3rd qtr -4

 

[Big Daddy]

I need to make a correction on yesterday's results. I used the Houston at Miami game in my experiment, and it did not fit the profile. Somehow I had it in my head that Miami was a playoff team, and they are not. So for the purpose of accuracy for what I am doing, I can't use the results in that game in my record. So to update the results and be totally accurate, the record should be 2-1 yesterday for a total after day 4 of 11-9 (+2.20 units). Also I need to add one more game tonight since Miami at Boston fits the profile, and I had left that game off my earlier post. So adding:

Bost 1st qtr -3
Bost 2nd qtr -2'
Boston 3rd qtr -2'

2 units each.

Sorry for the mistake, but I want to be accurate with this system to see if there is any value in it.

 

[Big Daddy]

An awful day yesterday with the experiment, going 4-8 to bring our record after day 5 to 15-17 (-7.40 units). One thing I noticed about yesterday was that the 4 wins were all 1st quarter wagers, and we lost all 4 2nd Quarter and all 4 3rd quarter wagers. I went back to the beginning and found these results:

!st quarter wagers went an amazing 9-1 with 1 push.

2nd quarter wagers went 3-8

3rd quarter wagers went 3-8

Keep in mind this is only after 5 days and 11 games, so we will have to see if this trend continues, but so far, it looks like we get tremendous value in the 1st quarter. I am going to continue playing all 3 quarters in games that fit the profile until the end of the year so we can get a better idea what we can expect next season.

Only 1 game today fits: Houston at Dallas

2 units each:

Dal 1st qtr -3
Dal 2nd qtr -3
Dal 3rd qtr -3

 

[nighthorse]

A lot of the first quarter results have been too successful. Double digit leads in the first quarter. Becomes harder to maintain the killer instinct, or perhaps adjustments are made by the other team. (the situations where you got all three quarters right, the winning team BARELY covered each quarter, if my memory is correct, therefore the total lead never became TOO large).

In most situations, the bigger the lead, the harder it is to keep tacking on to it.

I would at least consider dropping the 3rd qt. because if your team is successful in the 1st two quarters, you'll get a much more favorable line at halftime for the 3rd quarter (If you're still inclined to bet it at halftime).

Based on your results, I would cut back to the first quarter or half half.....perhaps both.


--------just some thoughts.

 

[MrChristo]

Interesting angle indeed!

I've noticed that the first quater is often successful, but team tend to drop off in the second, if they've done well in the first.

If I may make a suggestion, that betting on first quater, and the first half, not the second quarter.
I know it's a bit dependant, and if they get thumped in the first you're likely to lose both, but from what I've seen teams jump out to big 1/4 leads and then maintain it until half time :shrug:

Just a thought.

Nice idea

 

[Big Daddy]

Thanks for the input. Your ideas are appreciated. Will have to look hard at whether or not to play the 2nd and 3rd quarters the rest of the way. Yesterday we only had 1 game to play, and we won both 1st and 2nd quarter, but lost the 3rd. That leaves our overall record after day 6 at 17-18 (-5.60 units).

Record by quarters:

1st qtr 10-1-1
2nd qtr 4-8
3rd qtr 3-9

Going to give it another shot tonight. 4 games fit the profile. Wash at Philly, Atl at Tor, NY at Bos, and Clev at Char.

2 units each

Phil 1st qtr -2
Phil 2nd qtr -1'
Phil 3rd qtr -1'

Tor 1st qtr -1
Tor 2nd qtr -1
Tor 3rd qtr -1

Bos 1st qtr -3
Bos 2nd qtr -2'
Bos 3rd qtr -2'

Char 1st qtr -2
Char 2nd qtr -2
Char 3rd qtr -2

 

[Big Daddy]

A fairly successful day yesterday, going 7-5 for a 7 day total of 24-23 (-2.60 units). 1st quarters continue to be the hot play, going 3-1, while 2nd quarters and 3rd quarters both went 2-2.

Record by quarters:

1st qtr. 13-2-1
2nd qtr 6-10
3rd qtr 5-11

These 1st quarter results continue to amaze me. If a person only played the 1st quarter of these games at 2 units each, they would be up 21.60 units in just 1 week. 2nd and 3rd quarter plays continue to look like bad plays. We only have a few days left to see if the trends continue.

Unfortunately, none of the games today fit the profile, so there will be no plays today. See you tomorrow.

 

[Big Daddy]

Today, just like yesterday, no games fit the profile of what I am trying. Hopefully, the final 3 days of the season will give us a few more games that fit.

 

[Big Daddy]

Today we have 1 game that fits the profile: Chicago at Philly.

2 units each

Philly 1st qtr -3
Philly 2nd qtr -2'
Philly 3rd qtr -2'

I debated whether to play any more of these after watching some of the uninspired play this past weekend by some teams that are locked into their playoff position, but since Philly is now tied with Charlotte, this game is very important to them. For the purpose of the experiment, I will use a mythical 2 units on each quarter, however, in reality, I am going to play the 1st quarter for 5 units, since they have been doing so well, and the 2nd and 3rd quarters for 2 units each.

 

[Big Daddy]

Thought I had a nice 1st quarter win last night until Bulls hit a jumper with 1/10 of a second to go. Had to settle for a push. Oh well, at least it wasn't a 3 where it would have been a loss. Easy win on the 2nd quarter, but then Philly quit the rest of the way and we lost the 3rd. Overall record now stands at 25-24 (-2.80 units).

Record by quarters:

1st qtr 13-2-2
2nd qtr 7-10
3rd qtr 5-12

Only one game fits the profile tonight: Phoenix at San Antonio

Again, I had to debate whether to play it with all the uncertanty of who will play and for how long, or what players will be sitting in street clothes on the bench. However, in this game, San Antonio has now caught Dallas in the Midwest division, and I believe will want to play hard to try and get that #2 seed in the West. For the purpose of the experiment, I will play a mythical 2 units on the following:

SA 1st qtr -3
SA 2nd qtr -3
SA 3rd qtr -3

In reality, what I am actually playing for real money is the following:

SA 1st qtr -3 (5 units)
SA 1st half -6 (3 units)

Good luck. Only 1 day to go. Will have to see if there is any games on the last day that have any importance.

 

[Big Daddy]

Yesterday, we went 2-1 as San Antonio easily won the 1st and 2nd quarters while losing the 3rd. Record to date now stands at 27-25 (-1.00 units).

Record by quarters:

1st qtr 14-2-2
2nd qtr 8-10
3rd qtr 5-13

With this being the last day of the regular season, and teams resting players for the playoffs, I want to stress that I am not playing these for real money, since there is no way to predict how much effort we will see from teams tonight. However, just to see if the trends continue, we will play the following games that fit the profile for a mythical 2 units each. There are a bunch of games today that fit.

Tor 1st qtr -2
Tor 2nd qtr -2
Tor 3rd qtr -2

Bos 1st qtr -2
Bos 2nd qtr -2
Bos 3rd qtr -2

Char 1st qtr -3
Char 2nd qtr -2'
Char 3rd qtr -2'

Orl 1st qtr -2
Orl 2nd qtr -1'
Orl 3rd qtr -2

Minn 1st qtr -3
Minn 2nd qtr -2'
Minn 3rd qtr -2'

Sea 1st qtr -3
Sea 2nd qtr -2'
Sea 3rd qtr -2'

There will be some 1st quarter plays that I am actually going to wager on, since the 1st quarters have been so successful. I will be back later to post them after I have had more time to study them.

 

[Big Daddy]

Playing these tonight with the offshore:

Indy 1st qtr -3 (4 units)

Minny 1st qtr -3 (5 units)
Minny 1st half -5' (5 units)

Dallas 1st qtr -1 (3 units)

Seattle 1st qtr -3 (3 units)

Good luck everyone!!!!!