Trying to hit 70% For the Year

[Fabulous]

I know this is a pretty lofty goal, but I'm going to track all of my NFL plays on this site and shoot for a 70% success rate. Here are my plays for Sunday:

Jacksonville - 6 2*
Pitt -4 2*
Philly -3 2*
Chicago +6 1*
Saint Louis over 42 1*
Philly under 42.5 1*
Pitt over 36.5 1*

Good luck to all.

 

[Fabulous]

I will include NCAAF in this as well:

Rutgers -16 2*
Rutgers under 49 1*
Penn State -16.5 1*

 

[Sam Bone]

70% WOW! Good Luck with that. If you're that good nobody will look at anyone elses threads.

I hope you do it. Over an entire season I always thought 58% or so would be good.

 

[el JB]

i keep dreamin that i go 51%

i keep dreamin that i go 51%

this Forum has helped my bad luck

 

[gjn23]

70% ?????

playing 7 nfl games a week + who knows how many college games????

sorry to say but you have no chance

 

[Sam Bone]

70% ?????

playing 7 nfl games a week + who knows how many college games????

sorry to say but you have no chance

My point exactly. No chance

Take a look at Vicc Inzagio's thread and you will see his 2006 record was 90-57. He is a good NFL capper and that is a great record. That's 90 wins out of 147 picks. That is about 61%. Not many of us is going to do any better than that.

 

[smurphy]

70% ?????

playing 7 nfl games a week + who knows how many college games????

sorry to say but you have no chance

Nothing is impossible. If you can dream it, you can do it. Are we AmeriCANS or AmeriCAN'TS ?

Go back to Russia with that negative attitude.:nono:

 

[gjn23]

Nothing is impossible. If you can dream it, you can do it. Are we AmeriCANS or AmeriCAN'TS ?

Go back to Russia with that negative attitude.:nono:

i dream of winning every bet i make.......i'm waiting for it to happen before i go back to russia.

come on...70%?????? only wayne root and brandon lang are that good!

:mj07:

 

[smurphy]

Yeah, I know. So maybe he needs to shoot for 70 in order to hit 57? Self-motivation kinda thing.:shrug:

 

[Agent 0659]

Fact is if you DO hit 70%, you are costing yourself money.

You would be far better off setting yourself a $$$ goal to chase. (let alone something realistic)

The highest winning percentage, is not the most profitable winning percentage. Pros rarely attain anything higher than a 56-57% win rate. Over the long term, a small advantage applied over and over is insanely effective. A profit is more assured with 200 bets and a 55% win rate than 50 bets with a 60% win rate. With the break even point at 53%, there is no reason to pass on any wager with an expectation of 55% or higher.

(No, I didn't make this up!)

GL

 

[smurphy]

Fact is if you DO hit 70%, you are costing yourself money.

You would be far better off setting yourself a $$$ goal to chase. (let alone something realistic)

The highest winning percentage, is not the most profitable winning percentage. Pros rarely attain anything higher than a 56-57% win rate. Over the long term, a small advantage applied over and over is insanely effective. A profit is more assured with 200 bets and a 55% win rate than 50 bets with a 60% win rate. With the break even point at 53%, there is no reason to pass on any wager with an expectation of 55% or higher.

(No, I didn't make this up!)

GL

:00x33

 

[SourDoughJoe]

WELL SAID AGENT!!! :clap:


GL,

SDJ

 

[Fabulous]

I never once stated that I would hit the 70% goal, I just said that is what I am shooting for. I know that is a very difficult feat, and I am not limiting myself to any certain number of plays. Last week I played NCAAF and went 16-3, which is the best week of my life in college football and that is 84%. Now I know how improbable it is to have that high of a percentage, so 70% is going to be a very lofty goal.

I have never posted for an entire season on this website and I have done some extensive handicapping this year to prepare for the season, so I thought I would see where it takes me. My goal is to make money, and if I make other people on this site money as well, then that is positive also.

Would I be happy if I hit somewhere in the 60%+ range? Absolutely. I may hit 40%, who knows. Good luck to all.

 

[sethseth]

I think it's good to be goal oriented by setting the 70% mark. The attitude to just do some work and see what happens is always less effective than the goal driven one. Probably most of the handicappers on here (including myself) just slog away at it and could do better if they set a goal.

 

[Fabulous]

Update: 2-1 67% +0.9 units

Rutgers came through, although it was much tougher than I thought it would be. Navy was really able to run the ball on the Rutgers defense, the interceptions cost them a chance to challange Rutgers for the win.

 

[Fabulous]

Minnesota Golden Gophers -8.5 2*

Miami Ohio was 101st in the country in rush defense last year, and not many teams run the ball as successfully as the Gophers do. They have a huge offensive line and a great back in Amir Pinnix who had almost 1,300 yards last season and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Minnesota is also 7-1 ATS hat home in September over the last 4 years.

 

[kneifl]

Smurphy always has a great attitude in the capping forums Having a positive attitude will make you $$ in the long run.

As for everyone else, let's lay off the guy and wish him the BEST OF LUCK and a profitable season.

Here's to you hopefully hitting your 70%:00x27 :00x27

kneifl

 

[IntenseOperator]

Smurphy always has a great attitude in the capping forums Having a positive attitude will make you $$ in the long run.

As for everyone else, let's lay off the guy and wish him the BEST OF LUCK and a profitable season.

Here's to you hopefully hitting your 70%:00x27 :00x27

kneifl

smurph gambles?

 

[jojoball]

Like your Hi/Lo bets.. alittle sqeemish about why more $ is on Tennessee vs the Jags.

 

[smurphy]

smurph gambles?

Compulsively.

Not good enough to provide sound info or bad enough to be a reliable fade. Pinnacle lost a steady source of cashflow when they denied my patronage. ....I might be able to provide some advice to anyone who wants to quit gambling but can't, but outside of that I'm not of much use around here.:shrug: Appreciate the outlet though.:SIB