I don't think my thinking is flawed at all. Like I said before, if you look at the line purely based on the first 4 games then I guess you would think it's too high. That seems like awful simplistic thinking though, if you ask me. You don't think Vegas knows what they're doing when they put lines up? As well as GS has played the fact that the line is -9 tells me that Vegas is BEGGING for GS money. They probably expect, like I do, that Dallas will come out and play inspired ball tonight and run away with it. Sure they could lay an egg like Miami did the other day, but I wouldn't bet on it. I don't think this game has anything to do with the first 4 games or x's and o's or anything like that, it's about a team whose season is on the brink playing at home. Maybe they don't answer the bell, but I think they will.
As for GS winning tonight I suppose it's possible. However, the odds of that happening are astronomical. Of course they have an incentive to win and close out the series, but it's almost impossible to match the intensity of a team who is fighting for their lives when you would simply "like" to win and they "have" to win. After all, GS can lose tonight and still be up 3-2 AND get to play game 6 at home. Don't think for a second that isn't in the backs of their minds this whole game.
As I said a couple of days ago, I'd be surprised if Dallas wins by less than 14 or 15.
