TUES 5/22 ~ Streak Tracking cont...

[LordofBalls]

Monday results:

W Streak Tms -
Mets W4th / +100
SD loss / -100
Doggers loss / -175
===== 1-2 day / 76-62 new.... -175 day

L Streak Tms -
Ariz L5th / +105
Det L4th / +100 < as stated yday, I did NOT play this as Twins were Big Faves, but I will track it!
======= 2-0 day / 75-60 new.... +205 day

OVERALL RESULTS: 3-2 day / 151-122 new record.... + $30 day / + $653 new
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TUESDAY SYSTEM PLAYS:

Win Streak Teams ~~
*Mets W4 (hm v Mia) ** double play v Mia
*A's W4 (hm v Sea) <-- no play... both on win streak
*Yanks W3 (@ Tex) ** double play v Tex
*Sea W3 (@ A's)

Losing Streak Teams ~~ big list today!
*Ariz L5 (@ Milw)
*Tor L4 (hm v Angels)
*Tigers L4 (@ Minn)
*KC L3 (@ StL) <-- StL is Big Fave @ -215 now, so gotta pass unless it drops below
*Tex L3 (hm v Yanks)
*Pitt L3 (@ Reds)
*Mia L3 (@ Mets)

The SYSTEM:
*Bet ON teams that have Won 3 games or more in a row to keep winning...
*Bet AGAINST teams that have Lost 3 games or more in a row to keep losing...
Tracking these results based on $100 (1u) bet/gm (to win 1u on fav, to risk 1u on dog)

***MY TWEAK to the System***
Do NOT play on Big Favorites of -200 or higher... these gms have cost 'the system' over 3k... simply "pass" on those gms and system up almost 40 units in 6 wks.. just sayin!

MY Thoughts on today's action:
*I give the Mets a shot... shaky pitchers
*Yankee bats always have a chance in Tex
*Historically, Angels and Tor both hit vs these SP's.. Over?
*hard to take Twins w/Lynn...

I'm just gonna play em... and then watch the nba game, see how it all turns out tomorrow


MY Personal Record starting 5/21 (Passing on big faves!) ... 2-2 / - $70 (frggn Doggers!)


Best o'Luck to ALL!!

LoLB

 

[Musca]

This is a system I use...

This is a system I use...

Have you considered tying in bet percentages and reverse line movement with it? I think it would allow you to drill down further... maybe?

Just an idea

 

[jng]

Have you considered tying in bet percentages and reverse line movement with it? I think it would allow you to drill down further... maybe?

Just an idea

Tighteners . . . the past couple years, Kenman (where the hell is Kenman, by the way??) looked at NL starting righties who were away favs and that's working little this year , too: http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query...e=NL+and+o:conference=NL&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

And in the AL too: http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query...e=AL+and+o:conference=AL&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

But . . . now we're actually getting into handicapping. Which takes much more time and skill than I have.

Someone find Kenman please.

 

[Musca]

I am not going to lie

I am not going to lie

I have about 3 things that I play pretty blindly... I like the streak system- I do that in every sport. Always bet ON a streak because you could win infintely but betting against a streak is the reverse you could lose infinitely.

I have been playing bet percentages and reverse line movement with some good results.

Then I like to play against a team and on the under when on a 2 series road trip and have to travel coast to coast home with the other team waiting on them... This is not a great description but look at Colorado vs La Dodgers last night. That was THE PERFECT setup of this system. The under hit and I hit a +180 dog. Over the years it has been a nice one. It was pointed out to me by Sonny from another forum... I think.

 

[LordofBalls]

Musca,

the difficulties with "bet %'s" is... who's numbers do u believe? what's the source?

Reverse line movement is easy to spot, but if it worked all the time, or most the time I'd guess it's already been looked at.

The thing about this streak system, is you don't have to look at that stuff...

Betting on win streak teams to keep winning
OR
Betting on losing streak teams to keep losing.....

seems to be pretty equal in the %'s.... where ya make $$ is there is a fair # of dogs involved.. and as we all know, the 'Best' teams in mlb still lose around 60 times.


RE:
The Doggers had to play in Washington Sunday... fly across the country, and play a div rival on Mon night...that is BRUTAL scheduling, and were a great 'go-against' that night.

If YOU would be so kind to maybe start a list of "situational" advantages that maybe we could use as a filter on this system?

I know most the SP's because of my research I do for my fantasy baseball leagues at the start of the yr... but NOthing is certain... or Kershaw and Scherzer, etc would never lose.

This wk, I'm finally jumping on the bandwagon w/jng (he's been making $$ on it for a month now)... I'm just gonna pass on the big faves, and see how the rest comes out.

HOPEfully, there will be a positive regression as we've lost bk about 800 or so in the last 3 wks or so.

GL Tonight!!

LoLB

 

[LordofBalls]

ps

I scan the other posters, and I don't see anyone with an "exceptional" win %...

I see some ppl that show profitable figures, but sometimes they bet 5 units or 8 units per gm... I haven't seen or heard of anybody that has been up close to 40 units playing 1 unit / gm...

Which is what this system would be since April 12th, IF you don't beg on the Big Favorites (that fall within the system).

I'd like to ride a winning train for a while

LoLB out!