Decided to take a boo at tomorrow's slate.
%'s might swing only a point or two based on Monday's action. e.g. if the chisox score a big total (6-8+) and manhandle the O's in their opener then you might want to add a couple of points to the probability.
Numbers in brackets are the break-even marks for the percents. The value indicator will be approximately +1 for every 5 points improvement on the lines (e.g. break-even mark for -105's is 52%, -110's is 53%, -115's is 54%, -120's is 55% etc.).
I could be way off on my assumed totals, but these are what I'm expecting. I've been off my recent moneyline expectations, too, but I may comment if I'm expecting some value based on the calls.
Zambrano@Snell cubs 70%(-230) RL 56(-125)
Martinez@Moyer Phillies 57%(-130)
Lowe@Balester dodgers 63%(-170)
...under8.5 65%(-180)
Olsen@Jurrjens Braves 51%(-104)
Arroyo@Rodriguez Astros 54%(-115)
Sheets@Wellemeyer Cards 58%(-135)
---Cards may very well be doggies, here; count me in if they are
Webb@Reineke d'backs 70%(-230) RL 55%(-120)
...under7.5 63%(-170)
De La Rosa@Palmer rockies 57%(-130)
---might be closer to +100, not too sure
Floyd@Burres chisox 64%(-175) RL 50(+100)
...over11 55%(-120)
---might be some value on the Pale Hose, here
Lee@Lambert Tigers 55%(-120)
...over8.5 61%(-155)
---Tigers likely dogs for this matchup; Lee's only bad game recently was against the Tigers; Lambert's MLdebut and I figure that the Claws will want to back him up strong, what with them already looking towards an '09 recovery; even money plus and I'll take a shot
Wakefield@Pettitte Yankees 56%(-125)
...over10 60%(-150)
---Wakefield coming off DL and has performed poorly against Yanks while Andy has been solid against 'Sox; Yanks no doubt will be favoured but if small then I will be tempted; call is this low as 'Sox are hitting as well as Yanks recently
Halladay@Shields jays 56%(-125)
...over8 55%(-120)
---might get close to even money for the Jays, in which case I'll give Doc a try
Millwood@Greinke rangers 56%(-125)
---Rangers will no doubt be dogs, here, and with a decent showing Monday I'll be tempted; edge is all sticks in this one, but Millwood coming off a solid effort
Smith@Lackey Angels 66%(-190) RL 52(-105)
...under8 64%(-175)
Baker@R-Smith twins 60%(-150)
That's the lot of them.
See if we get some reasonable lines for a change.
Playoff contenders are pricey right now.
Faves in general are pricey right now.
See you tomorrow.
%'s might swing only a point or two based on Monday's action. e.g. if the chisox score a big total (6-8+) and manhandle the O's in their opener then you might want to add a couple of points to the probability.
Numbers in brackets are the break-even marks for the percents. The value indicator will be approximately +1 for every 5 points improvement on the lines (e.g. break-even mark for -105's is 52%, -110's is 53%, -115's is 54%, -120's is 55% etc.).
I could be way off on my assumed totals, but these are what I'm expecting. I've been off my recent moneyline expectations, too, but I may comment if I'm expecting some value based on the calls.
Zambrano@Snell cubs 70%(-230) RL 56(-125)
Martinez@Moyer Phillies 57%(-130)
Lowe@Balester dodgers 63%(-170)
...under8.5 65%(-180)
Olsen@Jurrjens Braves 51%(-104)
Arroyo@Rodriguez Astros 54%(-115)
Sheets@Wellemeyer Cards 58%(-135)
---Cards may very well be doggies, here; count me in if they are
Webb@Reineke d'backs 70%(-230) RL 55%(-120)
...under7.5 63%(-170)
De La Rosa@Palmer rockies 57%(-130)
---might be closer to +100, not too sure
Floyd@Burres chisox 64%(-175) RL 50(+100)
...over11 55%(-120)
---might be some value on the Pale Hose, here
Lee@Lambert Tigers 55%(-120)
...over8.5 61%(-155)
---Tigers likely dogs for this matchup; Lee's only bad game recently was against the Tigers; Lambert's MLdebut and I figure that the Claws will want to back him up strong, what with them already looking towards an '09 recovery; even money plus and I'll take a shot
Wakefield@Pettitte Yankees 56%(-125)
...over10 60%(-150)
---Wakefield coming off DL and has performed poorly against Yanks while Andy has been solid against 'Sox; Yanks no doubt will be favoured but if small then I will be tempted; call is this low as 'Sox are hitting as well as Yanks recently
Halladay@Shields jays 56%(-125)
...over8 55%(-120)
---might get close to even money for the Jays, in which case I'll give Doc a try
Millwood@Greinke rangers 56%(-125)
---Rangers will no doubt be dogs, here, and with a decent showing Monday I'll be tempted; edge is all sticks in this one, but Millwood coming off a solid effort
Smith@Lackey Angels 66%(-190) RL 52(-105)
...under8 64%(-175)
Baker@R-Smith twins 60%(-150)
That's the lot of them.
See if we get some reasonable lines for a change.
Playoff contenders are pricey right now.
Faves in general are pricey right now.
See you tomorrow.
