07:10 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u6.5 -110 (PIT PIRATES vrs MIA MARLINS) ( G COLE -R / J FERNANDEZ -R )
08:05 PM MLB [908] CHI CUBS -220 ( ACTION /J ARRIETA -R )
08:10 PM MLB [909] STL CARDINALS -147 ( M LEAKE -R / W PERALTA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [930] NY METS -182 ( M LATOS -R / S MATZ -L )
1 unit bet pays 6.23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 6-52, -8.22 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...
Goood luck everyone!!
:firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The other day at Fangraphs, Paul Kastava tabbed Fernandez as this era's Nolan Ryan thanks to his obscene strikeout rate and elevated walk rate, though he's trimmed the walks his last two times out with just one in each after a string of seven straight with multiple free passes. Fernandez had an uncharacteristically high ERA through six starts at 4.28. He has quickly remedied that by reeling off four starts of a 1.00 ERA and WHIP with 43 Ks in 27 innings. He's obscenely good. Good luck, Pittsburgh!
I want you guys to realize what Jose Fernandez is doing right now. After last start's line of 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks, he now holds a K/9 of 13.35. He's nearly 2 full points above the next qualified starter (that would be Stephen Strasburg, you beautiful bastard), and if he were a reliever, it would rank #8 in the majors. That's absurd. Meanwhile, his FIP/xFIP sit at 2.31 and 2.49, he's walked just one batter in each of his last two starts and he fully deserves his spot as the 6th overall SP in fantasy
Shields is coming off yet another quality start in which he wasn?t backed up by much run support. The Padres right-hander has now tossed at least six innings in all 10 of his outings and owns a 1.83 ERA over his last three.
James Shields has quietly gotten back on track with a 2.33 ERA in his last six starts and just three homers allowed. He also has six or more strikeouts in each of his last four starts. He allowed 1.5 HRs per nine innings last year, which led to his near-4.00 ERA, but he's trimmed it to 1.0 this year -- more in line with his career mark. The Mariners are third in wRC+ against righties at 117, so Shields is more of contrarian play than an A-lineup guy. Let's be honest, he's never really an A-lineup guy anymore.
Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could be on the verge of rejoining the Red Sox after turning in a strong outing for Triple-A Pawtucket on Tuesday night.
Rodriguez allowed four hits and a run over seven innings, walking none and striking out seven. The performance was Rodriguez's first since he temporarily stopped his rehab assignment last week due to some recurring soreness in his right knee. But Rodriguez was fitted for a new brace a few days ago, and it seemed to give him added confidence. "Yeah, seven good innings," said Red Sox manager John Farrell. "Getting off the mound, he covered first base a couple times with a much more even gait to his run. He looked more comfortable with his delivery. We'll check him when he gets back here tomorrow, but he came out of tonight in good shape, physically."
But I?m going against Rodriguez here. The info I?ve gotten is that the Red Sox are a little concerned about a dip in velocity from where he was last season. The thought is that this isn?t a major worry, and it?s more a case of the southpaw just needing to get stronger. I can?t disagree with the idea of bringing him back right now even if he?s not yet 100%. The Red Sox had to bump Buchholz and even if he?s not at peak level right now, Rodriguez is probably an upgrade over the struggling righty. But that?s not to say he?s in go with form at the major league level right away.
It'd be cool if Arrieta's last outing in St. Louis (5 IP/4 ER) had some folks leaning away from him, but I doubt it will. When this is what qualifies as a bad start, you've reached unquestioned beast status. And for those a little worried -- and that word probably overstates it -- about his strikeout rate, he's notched 41 in his last 37 innings (10.0 K/9) after 26 in his first 31. The Dodgers are pretty weak against righties for a perceived good team, sitting 19th in wRC+.
Moscot will be activated from the DL and make his first start for the Reds since April 27. He?s been out with inflammation in his surgically-repaired left shoulder. In the third of three rehab starts in Triple-A, he worked six scoreless innings.
San Francisco vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +128
I'm not nominating the Braves to be a sudden playoff contender. I fully realize they are one of the worst teams in baseball. Adonis Garcia is their current clean-up hitter. That says enough about their 29th-ranked offense.
But a correction is due. The Braves' pitching is better than a 15-35 team and Atlanta has won three of its last four home games.
Atlanta beat San Francisco and Jeff Samardzija on Monday. The Braves are in good position to pull another upset today with a stronger pitching matchup going.
It's Jake Peavy versus Matt Wisler. Peavy turns 35 today. He has been pitching in the big leagues for 15 years. The Braves are starting Matt Wisler, who is beginning to live up to his vast potential. He has pitched much better than Peavy this season. So this line is inflated based on Peavy's past reputation and Wisler being below-the-radar.
Peavy is close to the end of his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.57 ERA in his last six starts. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 0-3 with a 10.00 ERA. San Francisco is 1-4 in Peavy's last five away starts.
Wisler, on the other hand, has a 2.25 ERA in 36 innings this month holding foes to a .212 batting average during this span. Denard Span is the only Giant who has ever faced Wisler. So Wisler has the element of surprise on his side.
The Giants could be down two starters, too. Outfielder Angel Pagan already is out and third baseman Matt Duffy left yesterday's game after being hit by a pitch.
------------
Rangers +160
If you like value, you are going to have a hard time finding better value than the Rangers today. Texas is a big road dog against the Indians, but have every bit as good a chance of winning this game as Cleveland. The Rangers will send out Colby Lewis, who is 4-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 10 starts. Lewis has a 1.73 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 4 starts on the road. Indians will have their ace in Corey Kluber on the mound, but he's been hit or miss this season and is just 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 4 home starts.
Minnesota vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
Minnesota had won four in a row going into yesterday, but that win streak came to a halt w/ a 3-2 loss here in Oakland. Off a loss this year, the Twins are just 7-27. They had been 4-19 on the road before sweeping Seattle over the weekend, so what I'm trying to say is that this is not a good team. Go against them here.
Oakland has the second worst run differential (-49) in the American League (Twins worst), but they've now won three straight, all here at home. Six of the team's 10 wins this month have come at home. Eric Surkamp has not pitched very well for the A's thus far, but he's only gotten one shot to work at home. He was okay in that spot, allowing just two runs in 4 2/3 IP. So, I'll call for him to have one of his better starts of the year tonight. Minnesota has scored the fewest runs in the entire American League.
Tyler Duffy has been terrible his last two starts for Minnesota. He's allowed 11 ER in 12 1/3 IP. It was a fortunate win (7-5 over Kansas City) his last time out. I don't anticipate him getting that same kind of support here as the A's have allowed just 11 runs total the last four games. Behind Duffy is a terrible bullpen, one that has posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.448 WHIP on the road this year.
Minnesota -106 over OAKLAND
Every start for Eric Surkamp evokes the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. If he does, we shouldn't. Metrics are interminably... boring, and there is nothing to suggest anything but more of them. Surkamp gives up more line drives (34%) than groundballs (29%). In 22 innings, he has walked 14 batters and struck out 12. In five starts he has a 1.95 WHIP and an xERA of 6.95. He starts here because the A's have few options.
The reason that this number is so low is because the Twins seldom win games and because Tyler Duffey has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts after a solid first four. That the 25-year-old began the year in Triple-A, despite pitching to a 3.10 ERA in 58 rookie innings for an organization not exactly flush with big league pitching talent is quite telling that his numbers are better than he is. That?s fine but Duffey throws strikes and comes in with a BB/K split of 8/30 in 37 innings. This is a good park for him to look good in too. Minnesota?s offense is vastly superior to the A?s and this wager is all about fading Surkamp. Nuff said.
ATLANTA +118 over San Fran
Matt Wisler has seven pure quality starts in nine tries this season and you would be hard pressed to find a pitcher that has more. Wisler struggled in his rookie season last year with a 1.46 WHIP, 4.71 ERA and an ugly BB/K split of 40/72 in 109 innings. However, he came into the majors with a great pedigree. His transition to the majors was a tough one but something has clicked and he?s a different pitcher this year. Mainly, Wisler is throwing his secondary stuff for strikes. He?s walked just 15 batters in 61 innings. He pitching deep into games lately with 36 innings pitched over his last five starts in which he?s walked eight and struck out 27. Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season to the tune of an oppBA of .327 but this year they are batting a mere .196 against him. Wisler recorded a high number of strikeouts through much of his minor league career. He?s 30 starts into his major-league career and he?s now pitching with the same confidence he had in the minors. Big difference there.
Atlanta?s 15 wins is the fewest in the majors so its stock is still very low. We talked about the Braves a couple of times last week, suggesting that they are getting great at bats and that the runs will follow. Well, the Braves have scored 19 runs over their past four games. They are playing .500 ball over their past 10 games and now they?re a dog at home to Jake Peavy after recently defeating Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, Aaron Nola and Adam Morgan.
One of the premier arms in baseball at one time, Peavy has seen his numbers gradually decline thanks to a myriad of injuries and just plain old age. Peavy put together somewhat of a renaissance season in 2015, however, as his 3.58 ERA was his lowest mark since 2009 but it was all luck-fueled. Peavy's K-rate continues to dive, as it's now in a three-year decline. He brings a 1.78 WHIP into this start with just three quality starts in 10 tries. There's little in Peavy's current skill set to suggest a major step forward at this point, let alone a simple repeat of 2015's lucky line. His great control and home park will keep him in games, but that's trumped by a nosediving three straight seasons of 4.00+ xERA. Peavy is playable when taking back a decent price but he is completely unplayable laying a tag, especially on the road.
St. Louis -1? +115 over MILWAUKEE
Over the past 20 games, Milwaukee has struck out 225 times. Nobody else is close to that mark and Mike Leake is sharp enough to know how to stay ahead of these fools and make them bat from behind in the count all night long. Leake is not going to dazzle anyone but he has elite control and an elite groundball rate. His ERA/xERA split of 3.90/3.85 is right in line with one another, confirming just how consistent Leake is and has been for years. Even if Leake is off his game here it should matter not because Wily Peralta is among the worst starters in the game.
Peralta is throwing harder this year at 94 MPH but his control is suffering because of it. Peralta has walked 10 batters over his last 27 innings and has now walked 22 in 52 frames. That?s not awful but it goes a bit deeper than that. You see, he?s falling behind just about every batter he faces. His first strike rate is just 54%, which means he has to come at guys with a fastball that is flat. His swing and miss rate is just 6%. Peralta cannot throw his off-speed stuff for strikes, so batters are just sitting on his fastball. He brings the worst WHIP (1.90) in baseball among starters with seven or more starts. He?s pitching with traffic every inning he?s out there and he?s tiring out quickly. He?s also been taken yard four times over his last 15.1 innings and has struck out just 35 batters all season long. A disciplined Cardinals team that is scoring a lot of runs lately figures to keep it going here.
08:05 PM MLB [908] CHI CUBS -220 ( ACTION /J ARRIETA -R )
08:10 PM MLB [909] STL CARDINALS -147 ( M LEAKE -R / W PERALTA -R )
07:10 PM MLB [930] NY METS -182 ( M LATOS -R / S MATZ -L )
1 unit bet pays 6.23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 6-52, -8.22 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...
Goood luck everyone!!
:firing: :toast: ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The other day at Fangraphs, Paul Kastava tabbed Fernandez as this era's Nolan Ryan thanks to his obscene strikeout rate and elevated walk rate, though he's trimmed the walks his last two times out with just one in each after a string of seven straight with multiple free passes. Fernandez had an uncharacteristically high ERA through six starts at 4.28. He has quickly remedied that by reeling off four starts of a 1.00 ERA and WHIP with 43 Ks in 27 innings. He's obscenely good. Good luck, Pittsburgh!
I want you guys to realize what Jose Fernandez is doing right now. After last start's line of 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks, he now holds a K/9 of 13.35. He's nearly 2 full points above the next qualified starter (that would be Stephen Strasburg, you beautiful bastard), and if he were a reliever, it would rank #8 in the majors. That's absurd. Meanwhile, his FIP/xFIP sit at 2.31 and 2.49, he's walked just one batter in each of his last two starts and he fully deserves his spot as the 6th overall SP in fantasy
Shields is coming off yet another quality start in which he wasn?t backed up by much run support. The Padres right-hander has now tossed at least six innings in all 10 of his outings and owns a 1.83 ERA over his last three.
James Shields has quietly gotten back on track with a 2.33 ERA in his last six starts and just three homers allowed. He also has six or more strikeouts in each of his last four starts. He allowed 1.5 HRs per nine innings last year, which led to his near-4.00 ERA, but he's trimmed it to 1.0 this year -- more in line with his career mark. The Mariners are third in wRC+ against righties at 117, so Shields is more of contrarian play than an A-lineup guy. Let's be honest, he's never really an A-lineup guy anymore.
Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could be on the verge of rejoining the Red Sox after turning in a strong outing for Triple-A Pawtucket on Tuesday night.
Rodriguez allowed four hits and a run over seven innings, walking none and striking out seven. The performance was Rodriguez's first since he temporarily stopped his rehab assignment last week due to some recurring soreness in his right knee. But Rodriguez was fitted for a new brace a few days ago, and it seemed to give him added confidence. "Yeah, seven good innings," said Red Sox manager John Farrell. "Getting off the mound, he covered first base a couple times with a much more even gait to his run. He looked more comfortable with his delivery. We'll check him when he gets back here tomorrow, but he came out of tonight in good shape, physically."
But I?m going against Rodriguez here. The info I?ve gotten is that the Red Sox are a little concerned about a dip in velocity from where he was last season. The thought is that this isn?t a major worry, and it?s more a case of the southpaw just needing to get stronger. I can?t disagree with the idea of bringing him back right now even if he?s not yet 100%. The Red Sox had to bump Buchholz and even if he?s not at peak level right now, Rodriguez is probably an upgrade over the struggling righty. But that?s not to say he?s in go with form at the major league level right away.
It'd be cool if Arrieta's last outing in St. Louis (5 IP/4 ER) had some folks leaning away from him, but I doubt it will. When this is what qualifies as a bad start, you've reached unquestioned beast status. And for those a little worried -- and that word probably overstates it -- about his strikeout rate, he's notched 41 in his last 37 innings (10.0 K/9) after 26 in his first 31. The Dodgers are pretty weak against righties for a perceived good team, sitting 19th in wRC+.
Moscot will be activated from the DL and make his first start for the Reds since April 27. He?s been out with inflammation in his surgically-repaired left shoulder. In the third of three rehab starts in Triple-A, he worked six scoreless innings.
San Francisco vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +128
I'm not nominating the Braves to be a sudden playoff contender. I fully realize they are one of the worst teams in baseball. Adonis Garcia is their current clean-up hitter. That says enough about their 29th-ranked offense.
But a correction is due. The Braves' pitching is better than a 15-35 team and Atlanta has won three of its last four home games.
Atlanta beat San Francisco and Jeff Samardzija on Monday. The Braves are in good position to pull another upset today with a stronger pitching matchup going.
It's Jake Peavy versus Matt Wisler. Peavy turns 35 today. He has been pitching in the big leagues for 15 years. The Braves are starting Matt Wisler, who is beginning to live up to his vast potential. He has pitched much better than Peavy this season. So this line is inflated based on Peavy's past reputation and Wisler being below-the-radar.
Peavy is close to the end of his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.57 ERA in his last six starts. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 0-3 with a 10.00 ERA. San Francisco is 1-4 in Peavy's last five away starts.
Wisler, on the other hand, has a 2.25 ERA in 36 innings this month holding foes to a .212 batting average during this span. Denard Span is the only Giant who has ever faced Wisler. So Wisler has the element of surprise on his side.
The Giants could be down two starters, too. Outfielder Angel Pagan already is out and third baseman Matt Duffy left yesterday's game after being hit by a pitch.
------------
Rangers +160
If you like value, you are going to have a hard time finding better value than the Rangers today. Texas is a big road dog against the Indians, but have every bit as good a chance of winning this game as Cleveland. The Rangers will send out Colby Lewis, who is 4-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 10 starts. Lewis has a 1.73 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 4 starts on the road. Indians will have their ace in Corey Kluber on the mound, but he's been hit or miss this season and is just 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 4 home starts.
Minnesota vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
Minnesota had won four in a row going into yesterday, but that win streak came to a halt w/ a 3-2 loss here in Oakland. Off a loss this year, the Twins are just 7-27. They had been 4-19 on the road before sweeping Seattle over the weekend, so what I'm trying to say is that this is not a good team. Go against them here.
Oakland has the second worst run differential (-49) in the American League (Twins worst), but they've now won three straight, all here at home. Six of the team's 10 wins this month have come at home. Eric Surkamp has not pitched very well for the A's thus far, but he's only gotten one shot to work at home. He was okay in that spot, allowing just two runs in 4 2/3 IP. So, I'll call for him to have one of his better starts of the year tonight. Minnesota has scored the fewest runs in the entire American League.
Tyler Duffy has been terrible his last two starts for Minnesota. He's allowed 11 ER in 12 1/3 IP. It was a fortunate win (7-5 over Kansas City) his last time out. I don't anticipate him getting that same kind of support here as the A's have allowed just 11 runs total the last four games. Behind Duffy is a terrible bullpen, one that has posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.448 WHIP on the road this year.
Minnesota -106 over OAKLAND
Every start for Eric Surkamp evokes the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. If he does, we shouldn't. Metrics are interminably... boring, and there is nothing to suggest anything but more of them. Surkamp gives up more line drives (34%) than groundballs (29%). In 22 innings, he has walked 14 batters and struck out 12. In five starts he has a 1.95 WHIP and an xERA of 6.95. He starts here because the A's have few options.
The reason that this number is so low is because the Twins seldom win games and because Tyler Duffey has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts after a solid first four. That the 25-year-old began the year in Triple-A, despite pitching to a 3.10 ERA in 58 rookie innings for an organization not exactly flush with big league pitching talent is quite telling that his numbers are better than he is. That?s fine but Duffey throws strikes and comes in with a BB/K split of 8/30 in 37 innings. This is a good park for him to look good in too. Minnesota?s offense is vastly superior to the A?s and this wager is all about fading Surkamp. Nuff said.
ATLANTA +118 over San Fran
Matt Wisler has seven pure quality starts in nine tries this season and you would be hard pressed to find a pitcher that has more. Wisler struggled in his rookie season last year with a 1.46 WHIP, 4.71 ERA and an ugly BB/K split of 40/72 in 109 innings. However, he came into the majors with a great pedigree. His transition to the majors was a tough one but something has clicked and he?s a different pitcher this year. Mainly, Wisler is throwing his secondary stuff for strikes. He?s walked just 15 batters in 61 innings. He pitching deep into games lately with 36 innings pitched over his last five starts in which he?s walked eight and struck out 27. Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season to the tune of an oppBA of .327 but this year they are batting a mere .196 against him. Wisler recorded a high number of strikeouts through much of his minor league career. He?s 30 starts into his major-league career and he?s now pitching with the same confidence he had in the minors. Big difference there.
Atlanta?s 15 wins is the fewest in the majors so its stock is still very low. We talked about the Braves a couple of times last week, suggesting that they are getting great at bats and that the runs will follow. Well, the Braves have scored 19 runs over their past four games. They are playing .500 ball over their past 10 games and now they?re a dog at home to Jake Peavy after recently defeating Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, Aaron Nola and Adam Morgan.
One of the premier arms in baseball at one time, Peavy has seen his numbers gradually decline thanks to a myriad of injuries and just plain old age. Peavy put together somewhat of a renaissance season in 2015, however, as his 3.58 ERA was his lowest mark since 2009 but it was all luck-fueled. Peavy's K-rate continues to dive, as it's now in a three-year decline. He brings a 1.78 WHIP into this start with just three quality starts in 10 tries. There's little in Peavy's current skill set to suggest a major step forward at this point, let alone a simple repeat of 2015's lucky line. His great control and home park will keep him in games, but that's trumped by a nosediving three straight seasons of 4.00+ xERA. Peavy is playable when taking back a decent price but he is completely unplayable laying a tag, especially on the road.
St. Louis -1? +115 over MILWAUKEE
Over the past 20 games, Milwaukee has struck out 225 times. Nobody else is close to that mark and Mike Leake is sharp enough to know how to stay ahead of these fools and make them bat from behind in the count all night long. Leake is not going to dazzle anyone but he has elite control and an elite groundball rate. His ERA/xERA split of 3.90/3.85 is right in line with one another, confirming just how consistent Leake is and has been for years. Even if Leake is off his game here it should matter not because Wily Peralta is among the worst starters in the game.
Peralta is throwing harder this year at 94 MPH but his control is suffering because of it. Peralta has walked 10 batters over his last 27 innings and has now walked 22 in 52 frames. That?s not awful but it goes a bit deeper than that. You see, he?s falling behind just about every batter he faces. His first strike rate is just 54%, which means he has to come at guys with a fastball that is flat. His swing and miss rate is just 6%. Peralta cannot throw his off-speed stuff for strikes, so batters are just sitting on his fastball. He brings the worst WHIP (1.90) in baseball among starters with seven or more starts. He?s pitching with traffic every inning he?s out there and he?s tiring out quickly. He?s also been taken yard four times over his last 15.1 innings and has struck out just 35 batters all season long. A disciplined Cardinals team that is scoring a lot of runs lately figures to keep it going here.
