07:10 PM [903] CHI CUBS -240 ( J LESTER -L / J LAMB -L )
07:05 PM [909] TEX RANGERS -116 ( C HAMELS -L / C SABATHIA -L )
08:10 PM [914] CHI WHITE SOX -181 ( K GIBSON -R / J QUINTANA -L )
07:10 PM [919] CLE INDIANS -210 ( C KLUBER -R / M WISLER -R )
08:40 PM [923] TOTAL o13-110 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs COL ROCKIES) ( J HAPP -L / E BUTLER -R )
1 unit bet pays 10.55 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-89, -16.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Texas Rangers are: 22-5 in Hamels? last 27 starts and 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Hamels has a 1.82 ERA in the month of June and has a dominant 1.64 ERA on the road this season, so I am confident he can contain the Yankees offense..Rangers offense kills left handed pitching, hitting .298 as a team with a 117 runs scored against lefties which is the second most of any team..
Cole Hamels has posted a fantastic 2.79 ERA this year. When matched with a 1.22 WHIP and 1.4 HR/9, it looks a little too low to be true. He seemed to get some good fortune when the homers were at their worst. In a four-start run from May 11th through May 27th, he allowed just a 4.32 ERA despite a 2.9 HR/9 because five of the runs he allowed were unearned. Perhaps some were legitimately unearned, but I see 31 hits and 8 homers in 25 innings and can't help but see the corresponding 4.32 as quite lucky. However, I'm less concerned about that going forward because he has tightened everything up in June. He has allowed just 22 hits and 3 homers in 34 2/3 innings this month, figures believable with a 1.82 ERA.
Archer suffered his Major League-leading 10th loss after being outdueled by Trevor Bauer. Tampa Bay?s ace has struggled this year, posting the worst hit and home run rates of his career along with his highest walk rate since 2012. His 108 strikeouts are second only to David Price in the American League, however, and with better luck he should turn his season around. Archer will have his hands full with a potent Red Sox lineup in his next start on June 28.
The first batter of the inning is hitting .404 (19-for-47) vs. Lamb this season, with a .491 on-base percentage. On Thursday vs. the Padres, the leadoff batter reached five of six innings as he labored much of the night in a no-decision.
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Chi-Cin-- Lester 4-15; Lamb 4-10
Tex-NY-- Hamels 3-15; Sabathia 0-12
Bos-TB-- Porcello 5-15; Archer 8-16
Mia-Det-- Conley 5-15; Pelfrey 8-14
Blt-SD-- Jimenez 6-14; Johnson 2-5
San Francisco is the only team to make Jon Lester look bad this year, which the Giants have done to plenty of pitchers. They got to Lester for five earned in just 2 2/3 innings. Since then, he's allowed just five earned in 36.3 innings of work with 40 strikeouts and five walks. The Reds have some lefty-mashing righties in their lineup as well as two key lefties who have been capable against southpaws in their career (though Joey Votto is struggling like never before against them), but Lester is matchup-proof. He has also fanned 7+ batters in six of his last seven starts.
Lester has pretty well dominated Cincinnati this season and he?s 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA on the road in 2016. Lamb, meanwhile, is 0-2 at home but does have a solid 3.58 ERA. Cubs win something like 4-2. Chicago is 11-3 in his past 14 vs. a lefty starter. The Reds are 1-4 in their past five vs. a southpaw.
The struggles of Zack Greinke have largely been overstated and confined to two 7 ER outings in April. In his other 14 starts, he has a 2.70 ERA in 96.7 innings. In his last 11 starts, he has a 2.58 ERA in 76 2/3 innings with 0.82 HR/9. He's allowed 11 homers this year, five in the two duds. The Phillies ambushed him for five first-inning runs, but he lasted six and went 3-for-3 with a homer and actually pulled a win in the 10-8 thriller. I'd be surprised if the Phillies posed much of a threat to Greinke on Tuesday.
I would've bet on injury for Michael Wacha about a month ago. He looked horrible in a three-start run where he went four innings and allowed eight hits in each. He managed just a 1.3 K:BB ratio en route to a 12.00 ERA that could've been a lot worse if not for four unearned runs. He looks a lot like the guy before the three 4-inning starts or even better over the last month with a 3.34 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 2.7 K:BB ratio in 32 1/3 innings. He had a 3.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 2.7 K:BB ratio in 43 1/3 innings before the skid. His velocity is up a tick to 93.7 MPH and the changeup is on fire. He's using it 24 percent of the time over these last five starts with the opposition managing just a .361 OPS and 52 percent strikeout rate in 31 PA.
Oakland +128 over SAN FRAN
Baseball is a season of peaks and valleys. Almost every team will go through winning and losing streaks and every team will very likely end up winning 60 games and losing 60 games. There are few exceptions to that every year. So when a team like San Fran is whacking the ball and leading the majors in hitting over a 20-game stretch, regression is inevitable. The Giants are coming back down to earth and the A?s just happen to be the competition.
Oakland came in here last night and took the opener 8-3. That was against Jeff Samardzija and they do not take a step up in class here when facing Albert Suarez. Suarez is set to make his fifth start of the season and is coming off his first dominant start but he cannot be trusted for a repeat. Suarez?s 4.29/4.53 ERA/xERA split as a starter is significantly higher than his 2.87 ERA/3.54 xERA split as a reliever. Suarez is back in the rotation only because Matt Cain is back on the DL. Suarez is just a very average 26-year-old rookie that has spent a lot of time in the minors. Being an average pitcher, Suarez does not warrant being this high a price.
Kendall Graveman has one of the best groundball rates in MLB. Graveman?s velocity is also up across the board, which has contributed to a higher whiff rate and higher strikeout rate. Graveman?s swing and miss % has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. He?s a pitcher we are watching closely because he?s shown flashes in a handful of his starts. Graveman works with a bunch of average pitches, but advanced pitchability, plus control, maturity, and makeup all push the profile up, giving him the potential to eat up good innings in a forgiving home ballpark and in a park like the one he?ll pitch in here.
============================================
07:05 PM [909] TEX RANGERS -116 ( C HAMELS -L / C SABATHIA -L )
08:10 PM [914] CHI WHITE SOX -181 ( K GIBSON -R / J QUINTANA -L )
07:10 PM [919] CLE INDIANS -210 ( C KLUBER -R / M WISLER -R )
08:40 PM [923] TOTAL o13-110 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs COL ROCKIES) ( J HAPP -L / E BUTLER -R )
1 unit bet pays 10.55 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-89, -16.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Texas Rangers are: 22-5 in Hamels? last 27 starts and 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Hamels has a 1.82 ERA in the month of June and has a dominant 1.64 ERA on the road this season, so I am confident he can contain the Yankees offense..Rangers offense kills left handed pitching, hitting .298 as a team with a 117 runs scored against lefties which is the second most of any team..
Cole Hamels has posted a fantastic 2.79 ERA this year. When matched with a 1.22 WHIP and 1.4 HR/9, it looks a little too low to be true. He seemed to get some good fortune when the homers were at their worst. In a four-start run from May 11th through May 27th, he allowed just a 4.32 ERA despite a 2.9 HR/9 because five of the runs he allowed were unearned. Perhaps some were legitimately unearned, but I see 31 hits and 8 homers in 25 innings and can't help but see the corresponding 4.32 as quite lucky. However, I'm less concerned about that going forward because he has tightened everything up in June. He has allowed just 22 hits and 3 homers in 34 2/3 innings this month, figures believable with a 1.82 ERA.
Archer suffered his Major League-leading 10th loss after being outdueled by Trevor Bauer. Tampa Bay?s ace has struggled this year, posting the worst hit and home run rates of his career along with his highest walk rate since 2012. His 108 strikeouts are second only to David Price in the American League, however, and with better luck he should turn his season around. Archer will have his hands full with a potent Red Sox lineup in his next start on June 28.
The first batter of the inning is hitting .404 (19-for-47) vs. Lamb this season, with a .491 on-base percentage. On Thursday vs. the Padres, the leadoff batter reached five of six innings as he labored much of the night in a no-decision.
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Chi-Cin-- Lester 4-15; Lamb 4-10
Tex-NY-- Hamels 3-15; Sabathia 0-12
Bos-TB-- Porcello 5-15; Archer 8-16
Mia-Det-- Conley 5-15; Pelfrey 8-14
Blt-SD-- Jimenez 6-14; Johnson 2-5
San Francisco is the only team to make Jon Lester look bad this year, which the Giants have done to plenty of pitchers. They got to Lester for five earned in just 2 2/3 innings. Since then, he's allowed just five earned in 36.3 innings of work with 40 strikeouts and five walks. The Reds have some lefty-mashing righties in their lineup as well as two key lefties who have been capable against southpaws in their career (though Joey Votto is struggling like never before against them), but Lester is matchup-proof. He has also fanned 7+ batters in six of his last seven starts.
Lester has pretty well dominated Cincinnati this season and he?s 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA on the road in 2016. Lamb, meanwhile, is 0-2 at home but does have a solid 3.58 ERA. Cubs win something like 4-2. Chicago is 11-3 in his past 14 vs. a lefty starter. The Reds are 1-4 in their past five vs. a southpaw.
The struggles of Zack Greinke have largely been overstated and confined to two 7 ER outings in April. In his other 14 starts, he has a 2.70 ERA in 96.7 innings. In his last 11 starts, he has a 2.58 ERA in 76 2/3 innings with 0.82 HR/9. He's allowed 11 homers this year, five in the two duds. The Phillies ambushed him for five first-inning runs, but he lasted six and went 3-for-3 with a homer and actually pulled a win in the 10-8 thriller. I'd be surprised if the Phillies posed much of a threat to Greinke on Tuesday.
I would've bet on injury for Michael Wacha about a month ago. He looked horrible in a three-start run where he went four innings and allowed eight hits in each. He managed just a 1.3 K:BB ratio en route to a 12.00 ERA that could've been a lot worse if not for four unearned runs. He looks a lot like the guy before the three 4-inning starts or even better over the last month with a 3.34 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 2.7 K:BB ratio in 32 1/3 innings. He had a 3.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 2.7 K:BB ratio in 43 1/3 innings before the skid. His velocity is up a tick to 93.7 MPH and the changeup is on fire. He's using it 24 percent of the time over these last five starts with the opposition managing just a .361 OPS and 52 percent strikeout rate in 31 PA.
Oakland +128 over SAN FRAN
Baseball is a season of peaks and valleys. Almost every team will go through winning and losing streaks and every team will very likely end up winning 60 games and losing 60 games. There are few exceptions to that every year. So when a team like San Fran is whacking the ball and leading the majors in hitting over a 20-game stretch, regression is inevitable. The Giants are coming back down to earth and the A?s just happen to be the competition.
Oakland came in here last night and took the opener 8-3. That was against Jeff Samardzija and they do not take a step up in class here when facing Albert Suarez. Suarez is set to make his fifth start of the season and is coming off his first dominant start but he cannot be trusted for a repeat. Suarez?s 4.29/4.53 ERA/xERA split as a starter is significantly higher than his 2.87 ERA/3.54 xERA split as a reliever. Suarez is back in the rotation only because Matt Cain is back on the DL. Suarez is just a very average 26-year-old rookie that has spent a lot of time in the minors. Being an average pitcher, Suarez does not warrant being this high a price.
Kendall Graveman has one of the best groundball rates in MLB. Graveman?s velocity is also up across the board, which has contributed to a higher whiff rate and higher strikeout rate. Graveman?s swing and miss % has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. He?s a pitcher we are watching closely because he?s shown flashes in a handful of his starts. Graveman works with a bunch of average pitches, but advanced pitchability, plus control, maturity, and makeup all push the profile up, giving him the potential to eat up good innings in a forgiving home ballpark and in a park like the one he?ll pitch in here.
============================================
