NY METS -147 ( W CHEN -L / S MATZ -L )
TOTAL o9.5 -120 (SDG PADRES vrs ARI DBACKS) ( C FRIEDRICH -L / Z GODLEY -R )
TOR BLUE JAYS -155 ( C YOUNG -R / R DICKEY -R )
TB RAYS -180 ( T LINCECUM -R / J ODORIZZI -R )
TOTAL u8+100 (NY YANKEES vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( M TANAKA -R / C RODON -L )
1 unit bet pays 14.77 ....betdsi line
MIL BREWERS +150 ( Z DAVIES -R / G GONZALEZ -L )
TOTAL o7.5 -115 (MIA MARLINS vrs NY METS) ( W CHEN -L / S MATZ -L )
PIT PIRATES +130 ( S BRAULT -L / M LEAKE -R )
TOTAL o9.5 -120 (KC ROYALS vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( C YOUNG -R / R DICKEY -R )
CLE INDIANS -200 ( A SANCHEZ -R / C CARRASCO -R )
HOU ASTROS -145 ( T WALKER -R / D KEUCHEL -L )
BAL ORIOLES +136 ( C TIlLMAN -R / K MAEDA -R )
1 unit bet pays 116 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-96, -18.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9..after long dry spell, hit four teamer last night...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Jake Odorizzi has been a homebody so far. His work at the Trop is markedly better than on the road with a 3.10 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.7 K:BB ratio in 52.3 IP compared to 4.93, 1.43, and 2.2 on the road in 42 IP. The 10 1/3 IP difference comes despite just one extra start at home, further accentuating how much better he's been at home. Most players are better at home, so it's not that surprising, but this has become something of a pattern for Odorizzi. He's nearly two runs better at home for his career with a 2.98/4.78 home/road ERA split. The Angels bring in a better-than-you-think offense (12th in wRC+ v. RHP), but it's a nickel-and-dime offense as they also have the 25th-best ISO at .141.
Lincecum now holds a 1-2 record with a 6.75 ERA, 5.47 FIP and 5.15 xFIP through his first three starts this season. His sample size is very small of course, but his eight walks and 18 hits allowed through 13 1/3 innings are not a good sign. He does hold a .372 BABIP thus far, which should drop down as he logs more innings,
Mike Leake - 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Leake now has a 3.18 ERA over his last nine starts. Just sayin'. Yeah, what about his 4.11 FIP and 3.87 xFIP? Oh damn, and that 15% soft contact with a 35% hard contact..
Brault will make his Major League debut in place of the injured Jameson Taillon. The Bucs' No. 17 prospect missed time earlier this season with a strained hamstring. He is 2-3 with a 2.57 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, striking out 44 batters in 35 innings.
Steven Brault is being summoned from Triple-A Indianapolis where he was boasting an impressive 2.57 ERA but also a more telling 1.43 WHIP. The high number of base runners was a result of walking 15 in 35 frames. The 24-year old southpaw draws the St. Louis Cardinals for his major league debut, one of the top offenses in the league. Perhaps against a lesser lineup it would be worth banking on the unfamiliarity factor but the Redbirds are too explosive to chance using Brault.
Hottest team: Pirates (8-2 last 10)
Pittsburgh picked up its fifth consecutive win on its current road trip by knocking off St. Louis on Monday, 4-2. The Pirates avenged a three-game home sweep by the Cardinals in mid-June with Monday?s victory, as Pittsburgh has allowed 11 runs during its current hot streak. Left-hander Steven Brault makes his Major League debut on Tuesday for the Pirates as he owns a 2.31 ERA in nine minor league starts this season. The Bucs have won three of four meetings at Busch Stadium in 2016, while the team that has won the opener of each series this season has claimed the series.
Coldest team: Angels (2-8 last 10)
Los Angeles has dropped 12 of its past 14 games, but managed to score 21 runs in one of those victories on Saturday at Boston. The Angels fell to the Rays on Monday in the opener of their series at Tropicana Field, 4-2 as Los Angeles is 1-6 in its past seven away games. Former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum has been knocked around in his last two starts by allowing 17 hits and nine earned runs in losses to the Athletics and Astros. Following Monday?s setback, the Angels own an 0-4 record this season against the Rays, but face Tampa Bay right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who is winless in his last three trips to the mound.
Masahiro Tanaka hasn't gotten much run this year despite another strong season. His strikeout rate is down to a career-worst 7.1 K/9, but his 11 percent swinging strike rate is identical to what he did last year when he fanned 8.1 batters per game. He's up at 13 percent in his last three starts, yielding an 8.6 K/8 in that span. The once-hot White Sox offense has tumbled toward the bottom of the league with just a .709 OPS against righties. Their home run-friendly ballpark is a little bit concerning for Tanaka, but he has chopped his home run rate from 1.5 to 0.8 HR/9 this year while still holding a league average 11 percent HR/FB rate.
Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka (5-2, 3.35 ERA) will start on an extra day's rest against Chicago. Tanaka is 16-7 with a 2.84 ERA in his career when he pitches on five days' rest.
Sean Manaea's 5.40 ERA isn't good by any stretch, but the makeup of how he achieved is encouraging. After Boston obliterated him for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 IP, he was up at 11.37 through four starts, but the A's stuck with him and he chiseled it down to 6.02 over his next six before a DL stint cost him half of June. He returned with 5.7 scoreless innings against the Giants, giving him a 3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 IP since the Boston outing.
He has two five-earned-run outings in that stretch, but both were a case of one bad inning as he pitched 6 2/3 and 7 IP in them. His one legitimately bad start during the stretch came at the hands of Texas (the Rangers have a tendency of doing that to pitchers, huh?) and it still only included two earned runs in 4 1/3 IP, but the A's had a big lead (10-2 going into the fifth)
Taijuan Walker assuaged concerns over the health of his foot when he returned with a 6 1/3 IP/1 ER effort against Baltimore after 10 days off. The 23-year old righty has flashed brilliance throughout the first half, but the bulk of his struggles have come on the road thanks to an ugly 2.7 HR/9 in the six starts away from Safeco. He loses a whopping three strikeouts per nine on the road, too, with 18 in the 26 1/3 IP compared to 57 in 55 2/3 home innings. Meanwhile, the Astros are scoring 5.1 runs per game since June 1st and 5.8 at home since the start of the season.
Seattle Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker has enjoyed a brief history of dominance over the Houston Astros, but his lingering health concerns might cloud his start against them on Tuesday night.
Walker (4-6, 3.29 ERA) has been battling right posterior tibial tendinitis for weeks, a condition that grew so severe in June that he departed starts at Tampa Bay on June 14 and at Boston five days later (despite tossing five scoreless innings) early due to discomfort.
He had his turn skipped in the rotation before returning last Thursday against Baltimore, against which he allowed one run on four hits with five strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings.
I'm not sure how much the projected Game Score machine knows about the league's adjustments to Dallas Keuchel. With his excellent 2014 and 2015 seasons no doubt in the equation, he still projects well, but consider just how similar his 2016 is to his horrible 2013: 5.13 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.7 K:BB, 1.2 HR/9, and 9.9 H/9 this year; 5.15, 7.2, 2.4, 1.2, and 10.8 in '13. Keuchel has pitched better of late (4.03 ERA in his past seven), but only compared to how horrid he was through his first 10 starts (5.92 ERA).
Tyler Chatwood off the DL for this game. Chatwood (8-4, 3.15), out since June 18 with a back strain, threw five shutout innings in a rehab start for the Class A Modesto Nuts on Thursday night, throwing 66 pitches. He had won five of his six previous starts for Colorado before the back strain forced him out of a 9-6 loss to Miami on June 18.
I want to acknowledge Tyler Chatwood's gaudy 1.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP on the road in 43 1/3 IP, but I can't confidently recommend him in DFS because of the meager 6.2 K/9 and 2.1 K:BB ratio that go with the impressive results. And while he is on the road, he gets the always dangerous San Francisco Giants, who feast off of contact (second-lowest strikeout rate v. RHP), Chatwood's specialty. His 84 percent contact rate is 12th-highest among qualified starters this year.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (5-0 last five)
Colorado?s offense has dried up recently on the west coast by scoring three runs in the last four games at Los Angeles and San Francisco. The Giants made several incredible defensive plays in Monday?s 3-1 victory over the Rockies, while Colorado?s lone run came on a balk. Colorado cashed six consecutive ?overs? to start its recent homestand before closing things out with an ?under? against Toronto. Since that ?under,? the Rockies have yet to hit the ?over? on its road trip against division foes, while facing Madison Bumgarner tonight on a 6 ? total at AT&T Park.
Brewers at Nationals
Play: Brewers
Big plus money game for us as the 36-46 Brewers face off with the 50-34 Nationals. Brewers won yesterday and the Nationals have been hit or miss with scoring runs lately and I believe we are getting a better pitcher today at nice plus money. Gio Gonzalez has struggled this season 4-7 with a 4.81 ERA and that's for a 1st place team. Last time out against this Brewers team he was tagged for 6 runs over three innings and I expect them to hit him again today. Zach Davies will be seeking redemption after being roughed up last time out but the 23 year old is overall solid before that. 68% on the road Nationals and this line is really moving the other way we will follow the sharps with a play on the Brewers
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (9-2 last 11)
Arizona continues to struggle at home after falling to San Diego on Monday, 8-4 to drop to 14-31 at Chase Field. The last five games on this homestand for the D-backs have seen the ?over? cash, while Arizona and its opponent have combined for at least nine runs in each of these contests. Arizona faces San Diego southpaw Christian Friedrich tonight, who owns a 7-1 mark to the ?over? in his past eight trips to the hill, while tossing seven scoreless innings the last time he pitched at Chase Field in a 10-3 blowout win in May.
Marlins / Mets Over 8
The Marlins and Mets continue their series on Tuesday after a wild one on Monday. With the two starters listed, this is a nice spot to back the Over here. Wei-Yin Chen goes for the Marlins, who sits with a 5.11 ERA on the season. Chen has struggled with allowing the long ball, while posting an ERA of 4.61 in 7 road starts.
The Mets counter with Steven Matz, who is battling through some injuries. Matz has been pitching through a bone spur in his elbow, but insists on going here Tuesday. Matz likely won't have the same stuff he's had, which should give the Marlins hitters some good opportunities to put some runs up.
Some trends to consider. Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in New York. Over is 35-15-2 in Cuzzis last 52 Tuesday games behind home plate.
Given the starters here, along with a home plate umpire that sees a lot of Overs, this is a nice spot given the total of only 8.
Seattle @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -5
This is a long road trip for Seattle. They are a young, rebuilding team with a poor road record. Seattle is short on depth and experience, last in the league in rebounding, and ninth in points. They've lost six of nine and head out on the road after a four-game homestand, losing the last game 83-78. That game was a pick 'em, part of a 3-8 ATS run. Seattle shot just 42% at home to Dallas and got outrebounded 38-28. The Storm are 4-9 ATS against the Eastern Conference, plus 7-20 ATS playing on three or more days of rest. That rebounding disadvantage will be a concern against an Atlanta squad that is second in the WNBA in rebounding. Atlanta is riding a five-game skid, but has played well, losing four times on the road. One was in double OT, and they lost two others by four and three points. Atlanta has excellent balance and frontcourt play, with forward Angel McCoughtry (19.6 points per game), Center Elizabeth Williams (13.1 points per game, 7.4 rebounds per game), and guard Tiffany Hayes (16.1 points per game). Hayes missed last week's loss at Seattle because of a hamstring injury, but returned with 32 points in Thursday's loss at top-ranked Los Angeles. The Dream are 10-3 ATS playing on one day of rest, plus 8-3 ATS against the Western Conference. They match up well as Seattle is 3-8 ATS against the Dream, including an 0-5 ATS run at Atlanta.
New York Yankees -109
The New York Yankees clearly have the edge on the mound tonight behind Masahiro Tanaka. They will also be motivated to avenge a loss in Game 1 of this series yesterday, and I look for Tanaka and company to get it done.
Tanaka is 5-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He has been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in seven starts. Tanaka is also 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against Chicago.
Carlos Rodon has been pretty inconsistent this season for the White Sox, going 2-6 with a 4.24 ERA and 1460 WHIP in 15 starts, including 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in eight home starts. Rodon is also 1-1 with an ugly 10.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two career starts against New York.
Tanaka is 21-6 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last two seasons. New York is 8-2 in Tanaka's last 10 starts overall. The White Sox are 3-8 in Rodon's last 11 starts.
Oakland -105 over MINNESOTA
Sometimes the betting line will tip us off as to which team is the smart bet and this is one of those times. The A?s are not known for their offense and Minnesota?s offense is actually ranked lower than Oakland?s. Sean Manaea is regarded as one of Oakland?s best starters behind Rich Hill. Despite those facts, the total on this game opened at 9?. That?s a big number and it suggests to us that one of these teams is likely to go off. We?re betting it?s the A?s because Manaea is emerging to elite status.
Manaea is a strong prospect who tapped into that upside in June. He posted the highest swinging strike rate of any AL pitcher in the month of June (15.3%) and he paired it with an elite 67% first-pitch strike rate and solid 34% ball%. All are numbers that supported the excellent command he posted in June: 9.0 K?s/9, 2.7 BB?s/9 and 45% grounders. With two off-speed strikeout pitches in his arsenal (20% swing and miss on slider, 19% swing and miss on changeup), Manaea has the goods to dominate. Improving his command against RH bats is the missing piece right now but that?s getting better too. Manaea is a 6'5", 245-pound lefty with a plus fastball that he throws on a downhill plane. He is especially dominant when he can repeat his delivery, which was absent early in the year. He?s a former #1 draft pick that was making short work of the Pacific Coast League batters last year, who were hitting just .232 against him. He was striking out 10.5 batters per nine too. This kid is damn good and he?s going to be here for a very long time.
Tommy Milone has started six games for the Twins this season. He is winless with a 6.23 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Milone is in the rotation because Pat Dean was sent back down to Rochester. Had things worked out with Dean, Milone would still be in the minors. Surrendering seven earned runs to the Yankees at home on June 17 might have been the trigger point for Dean, forcing the Twins to hope that Milone's newly found aggressive approach on the mound will be an improvement. Since being demoted to the bullpen, then passed over by 29 teams while on waivers, Milone produced outstanding numbers at Rochester (AAA), including a 4-0 record in seven starts with a 1.66 ERA. Compared to his 6.23 ERA with the Twins, that seems remarkable. Milone (86.9 velocity) will need to rely heavily on excellent defense and solid run support from the last-place Twins to replicate those numbers. Milone did the exact same thing last year. He got wrecked in four April starts and was sent down. He then shredded Triple-A for two months (3 BB/47 K in 39 IP) and returned to the Twins in the 2nd half with uneven results. Dude is up now to eat innings and the posted total says he?s not even worth watching from a distance.
Pittsburgh +141 over ST. LOUIS
We played the Pirates a couple of times this past weekend and cashed out both times but missed a couple of more opportunities including last night in the opener of this series. After a horrible month of June in which the Pirates had the second worst record in the majors, their stock is lower than it?s been for quite some time. Despite winning the opener in this series yesterday, sweeping the A?s and taking two of three from the M?s last week, the Pirates stock is still low so we?re going to keep buying until the market adjusts.
Mike Leake is decent but with underwhelming stuff, he?s way too big a risk in this price range. He has now made 26 career starts against Pittsburgh so they have the book on him for sure. Furthermore, Leake is just 1-3 through seven starts in his new home park where he owns a 4.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Leake has a 4% swing and miss rate, which means he relies heavily on the variances of batted balls in play and his defense, which incidentally has been one of the worst in MLB this season.
A former two-way college player, Steven Brault has produced on the mound since being drafted in 2013 out of D-II Regis in Denver. He was the first player to be Rocky Mountain Conference first-team as a pitcher and outfielder. Brault played center field and hit .397, and his athleticism has helped him on the mound. In two pro seasons, he has logged a 2.61 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, yielding just five homers over 189 innings. Brault profiles as a command-and-control lefty with a fastball that ranges from 88-92 mph. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, and he also throws a slider. Brault has a solid delivery, fields his position well and changes speeds.
The Pirates traded Travis Snider to the Orioles for Brault and fellow lefthander Stephen Tarpley just before spring training last year. Snider was released by the Orioles in August (and subsequently re-signed with the Pirates), while Brault had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the Pirates system. Brault was a standout high school player in Grossmont, Calif., but he opted to play at the NCAA Division II level because he is a talented singer and Regis (Colorado) is one of the few schools that offer a vocal performance major. Brault has outstanding command of his pitches and pounds the bottom of the strike zone. That allows him to induce a healthy ratio of groundball outs and keep the ball in the park. He allowed just four home runs in 28 starts in 2015, which he finished with 90 innings at Double-A Altoona. Brault also knows how to swing the bat, as he went 7-for-16 (.438) in 2015, which makes him even more useful in the NL. Nobody really knows how a rookie making his first start will do. There is risk but there is also great upside because of the unknown and the price. Brault has the pitching know-how, the athletic ability and the makeup of an impact starter so we?re more than happy to put this gamble in play.
--------------
Steven Brault:
While some people may not know much about Brault, I have experienced first hand what he brings to the table. A few weeks ago, I had the opportunity to talk with Brault following a rehab start for the West Virginia Black Bears. The 24-year old sustained a strained hamstring on May 8, but has since returned to Indianapolis and should make a good first impression on Pirates fans seeing him for the first time.
Bucs have another ground ball pitcher
Brault primarily pitches to contact and relies on inducing ground ball outs. The Pirates have plenty of experience with ground ball pitchers, having had Charlie Morton on the roster for a number of years. In his rehab start for West Virginia on June 20, Brault induced six ground ball outs in four innings of work.
After a shaky return to the diamond in Indianapolis, Brault settled down in his last start on June 30 against the Toledo Mud Hens. In five shutout innings, Brault induced three groundball outs, but even some of the hits he allowed were still balls hit on the ground that snuck through some gaps.
Inducing ground ball outs and even fly outs are vital to Brault?s success as he doesn?t have lights out stuff that allows him to completely blow by hitters. He can easily rack up the strike outs, but he isn?t dependent on it. He is a pitcher that is much more focused on allowing his defense to help him out than on trying to strike everyone out.
Simply throwing strikes is key
Throwing pitches for strikes is an obvious path to success for any pitcher, at any level. However, for Brault in particular, he knows that it will lead to him having a successful outing. In fact, when I did talk to him, he had some things to say about his ability to throw strikes, particularly in his rehab start.
?It?s nice to be able to come in and be able to throw strikes because that?s what I do and that?s how I?m going to be effective,? Brault said. ?It?s good to have that already there and I can build forward on that.?
On that day, Brault threw 40 of his 53 pitches for strikes and showed tremendous command on the mound, another key for the left hander. In his first start back at Indy following his rehab, Brault got away from what usually makes him effective, throwing only 43 of his 77 pitches for strikes and allowing four runs (two earned) on five hits while walking two and striking out three in only 3.1 innings.
He was much better in his start against Toledo in which he threw 47 of his 72 pitches for strikes in five innings of work. The only trouble he had in this start was that he hit two batters and walked two, while striking out six, making his pitch count relatively high.
There is the possibility that Brault will throw a lot of pitches, becoming unavailable to pitch deep into a game. This season, he has yet to pitch more than six innings in a contest. However, if he?s throwing strikes or making guys chase at pitches out of the zone, at least he is being effective. Tonight, fans can expect this to be his focus.
Impressive arsenal of pitches
Aside from an ability to get ground ball outs and a focus on throwing pitches for strikes, Brault has himself a nice selection of pitches to use on the mound. He has a nice fastball that doesn?t exactly overwhelm a hitter, but he has a ton of command when using it and is effective. Brault also has a slider in his arsenal that he uses to fool hitters. Following his rehab start, he also discussed wanting to work on his delivery and his slider, a pitch that was initially giving him some issues.
?The main goal for me is be comfortable with my delivery again, which I did feel comfortable tonight,? Brault said. ?The only pitch I had a problem with a points was my slider. It was giving me a little bit of trouble just because it?s hard to kind of get everything back. All the timing together at the same time.?
Brault also has an average changeup, but it provides another good secondary off speed pitch that he can use to fool hitters.
Brault?s stuff isn?t overpowering by any means. The Pirates No. 17 prospect relies on pounding the strike zone and mixing his pitches well to have success over hitters. It will be a more difficult task to do this against major leaguers, but as long as Brault stays focused at the task at hand, he will be up for the challenge.
Impressive statistics in Minor Leagues
Despite battling his hamstring injury, Brault has put up stellar numbers at the minor league level this season. In nine total starts (Eight at Indianapolis, one at West Virginia), Brault is 2-3 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has also walked 15 batters while compiling 49 strikeouts in 39 innings pitched.
He has endured a trade early in his career and still been able to speed through the Pirates minor league system, compiling a career 27-17 record with a 2.51 ERA in 74 career minor league appearances.
TOTAL o9.5 -120 (SDG PADRES vrs ARI DBACKS) ( C FRIEDRICH -L / Z GODLEY -R )
TOR BLUE JAYS -155 ( C YOUNG -R / R DICKEY -R )
TB RAYS -180 ( T LINCECUM -R / J ODORIZZI -R )
TOTAL u8+100 (NY YANKEES vrs CHI WHITE SOX) ( M TANAKA -R / C RODON -L )
1 unit bet pays 14.77 ....betdsi line
MIL BREWERS +150 ( Z DAVIES -R / G GONZALEZ -L )
TOTAL o7.5 -115 (MIA MARLINS vrs NY METS) ( W CHEN -L / S MATZ -L )
PIT PIRATES +130 ( S BRAULT -L / M LEAKE -R )
TOTAL o9.5 -120 (KC ROYALS vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( C YOUNG -R / R DICKEY -R )
CLE INDIANS -200 ( A SANCHEZ -R / C CARRASCO -R )
HOU ASTROS -145 ( T WALKER -R / D KEUCHEL -L )
BAL ORIOLES +136 ( C TIlLMAN -R / K MAEDA -R )
1 unit bet pays 116 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-96, -18.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9..after long dry spell, hit four teamer last night...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Jake Odorizzi has been a homebody so far. His work at the Trop is markedly better than on the road with a 3.10 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.7 K:BB ratio in 52.3 IP compared to 4.93, 1.43, and 2.2 on the road in 42 IP. The 10 1/3 IP difference comes despite just one extra start at home, further accentuating how much better he's been at home. Most players are better at home, so it's not that surprising, but this has become something of a pattern for Odorizzi. He's nearly two runs better at home for his career with a 2.98/4.78 home/road ERA split. The Angels bring in a better-than-you-think offense (12th in wRC+ v. RHP), but it's a nickel-and-dime offense as they also have the 25th-best ISO at .141.
Lincecum now holds a 1-2 record with a 6.75 ERA, 5.47 FIP and 5.15 xFIP through his first three starts this season. His sample size is very small of course, but his eight walks and 18 hits allowed through 13 1/3 innings are not a good sign. He does hold a .372 BABIP thus far, which should drop down as he logs more innings,
Mike Leake - 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Leake now has a 3.18 ERA over his last nine starts. Just sayin'. Yeah, what about his 4.11 FIP and 3.87 xFIP? Oh damn, and that 15% soft contact with a 35% hard contact..
Brault will make his Major League debut in place of the injured Jameson Taillon. The Bucs' No. 17 prospect missed time earlier this season with a strained hamstring. He is 2-3 with a 2.57 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, striking out 44 batters in 35 innings.
Steven Brault is being summoned from Triple-A Indianapolis where he was boasting an impressive 2.57 ERA but also a more telling 1.43 WHIP. The high number of base runners was a result of walking 15 in 35 frames. The 24-year old southpaw draws the St. Louis Cardinals for his major league debut, one of the top offenses in the league. Perhaps against a lesser lineup it would be worth banking on the unfamiliarity factor but the Redbirds are too explosive to chance using Brault.
Hottest team: Pirates (8-2 last 10)
Pittsburgh picked up its fifth consecutive win on its current road trip by knocking off St. Louis on Monday, 4-2. The Pirates avenged a three-game home sweep by the Cardinals in mid-June with Monday?s victory, as Pittsburgh has allowed 11 runs during its current hot streak. Left-hander Steven Brault makes his Major League debut on Tuesday for the Pirates as he owns a 2.31 ERA in nine minor league starts this season. The Bucs have won three of four meetings at Busch Stadium in 2016, while the team that has won the opener of each series this season has claimed the series.
Coldest team: Angels (2-8 last 10)
Los Angeles has dropped 12 of its past 14 games, but managed to score 21 runs in one of those victories on Saturday at Boston. The Angels fell to the Rays on Monday in the opener of their series at Tropicana Field, 4-2 as Los Angeles is 1-6 in its past seven away games. Former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum has been knocked around in his last two starts by allowing 17 hits and nine earned runs in losses to the Athletics and Astros. Following Monday?s setback, the Angels own an 0-4 record this season against the Rays, but face Tampa Bay right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who is winless in his last three trips to the mound.
Masahiro Tanaka hasn't gotten much run this year despite another strong season. His strikeout rate is down to a career-worst 7.1 K/9, but his 11 percent swinging strike rate is identical to what he did last year when he fanned 8.1 batters per game. He's up at 13 percent in his last three starts, yielding an 8.6 K/8 in that span. The once-hot White Sox offense has tumbled toward the bottom of the league with just a .709 OPS against righties. Their home run-friendly ballpark is a little bit concerning for Tanaka, but he has chopped his home run rate from 1.5 to 0.8 HR/9 this year while still holding a league average 11 percent HR/FB rate.
Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka (5-2, 3.35 ERA) will start on an extra day's rest against Chicago. Tanaka is 16-7 with a 2.84 ERA in his career when he pitches on five days' rest.
Sean Manaea's 5.40 ERA isn't good by any stretch, but the makeup of how he achieved is encouraging. After Boston obliterated him for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 IP, he was up at 11.37 through four starts, but the A's stuck with him and he chiseled it down to 6.02 over his next six before a DL stint cost him half of June. He returned with 5.7 scoreless innings against the Giants, giving him a 3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 IP since the Boston outing.
He has two five-earned-run outings in that stretch, but both were a case of one bad inning as he pitched 6 2/3 and 7 IP in them. His one legitimately bad start during the stretch came at the hands of Texas (the Rangers have a tendency of doing that to pitchers, huh?) and it still only included two earned runs in 4 1/3 IP, but the A's had a big lead (10-2 going into the fifth)
Taijuan Walker assuaged concerns over the health of his foot when he returned with a 6 1/3 IP/1 ER effort against Baltimore after 10 days off. The 23-year old righty has flashed brilliance throughout the first half, but the bulk of his struggles have come on the road thanks to an ugly 2.7 HR/9 in the six starts away from Safeco. He loses a whopping three strikeouts per nine on the road, too, with 18 in the 26 1/3 IP compared to 57 in 55 2/3 home innings. Meanwhile, the Astros are scoring 5.1 runs per game since June 1st and 5.8 at home since the start of the season.
Seattle Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker has enjoyed a brief history of dominance over the Houston Astros, but his lingering health concerns might cloud his start against them on Tuesday night.
Walker (4-6, 3.29 ERA) has been battling right posterior tibial tendinitis for weeks, a condition that grew so severe in June that he departed starts at Tampa Bay on June 14 and at Boston five days later (despite tossing five scoreless innings) early due to discomfort.
He had his turn skipped in the rotation before returning last Thursday against Baltimore, against which he allowed one run on four hits with five strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings.
I'm not sure how much the projected Game Score machine knows about the league's adjustments to Dallas Keuchel. With his excellent 2014 and 2015 seasons no doubt in the equation, he still projects well, but consider just how similar his 2016 is to his horrible 2013: 5.13 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.7 K:BB, 1.2 HR/9, and 9.9 H/9 this year; 5.15, 7.2, 2.4, 1.2, and 10.8 in '13. Keuchel has pitched better of late (4.03 ERA in his past seven), but only compared to how horrid he was through his first 10 starts (5.92 ERA).
Tyler Chatwood off the DL for this game. Chatwood (8-4, 3.15), out since June 18 with a back strain, threw five shutout innings in a rehab start for the Class A Modesto Nuts on Thursday night, throwing 66 pitches. He had won five of his six previous starts for Colorado before the back strain forced him out of a 9-6 loss to Miami on June 18.
I want to acknowledge Tyler Chatwood's gaudy 1.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP on the road in 43 1/3 IP, but I can't confidently recommend him in DFS because of the meager 6.2 K/9 and 2.1 K:BB ratio that go with the impressive results. And while he is on the road, he gets the always dangerous San Francisco Giants, who feast off of contact (second-lowest strikeout rate v. RHP), Chatwood's specialty. His 84 percent contact rate is 12th-highest among qualified starters this year.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (5-0 last five)
Colorado?s offense has dried up recently on the west coast by scoring three runs in the last four games at Los Angeles and San Francisco. The Giants made several incredible defensive plays in Monday?s 3-1 victory over the Rockies, while Colorado?s lone run came on a balk. Colorado cashed six consecutive ?overs? to start its recent homestand before closing things out with an ?under? against Toronto. Since that ?under,? the Rockies have yet to hit the ?over? on its road trip against division foes, while facing Madison Bumgarner tonight on a 6 ? total at AT&T Park.
Brewers at Nationals
Play: Brewers
Big plus money game for us as the 36-46 Brewers face off with the 50-34 Nationals. Brewers won yesterday and the Nationals have been hit or miss with scoring runs lately and I believe we are getting a better pitcher today at nice plus money. Gio Gonzalez has struggled this season 4-7 with a 4.81 ERA and that's for a 1st place team. Last time out against this Brewers team he was tagged for 6 runs over three innings and I expect them to hit him again today. Zach Davies will be seeking redemption after being roughed up last time out but the 23 year old is overall solid before that. 68% on the road Nationals and this line is really moving the other way we will follow the sharps with a play on the Brewers
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (9-2 last 11)
Arizona continues to struggle at home after falling to San Diego on Monday, 8-4 to drop to 14-31 at Chase Field. The last five games on this homestand for the D-backs have seen the ?over? cash, while Arizona and its opponent have combined for at least nine runs in each of these contests. Arizona faces San Diego southpaw Christian Friedrich tonight, who owns a 7-1 mark to the ?over? in his past eight trips to the hill, while tossing seven scoreless innings the last time he pitched at Chase Field in a 10-3 blowout win in May.
Marlins / Mets Over 8
The Marlins and Mets continue their series on Tuesday after a wild one on Monday. With the two starters listed, this is a nice spot to back the Over here. Wei-Yin Chen goes for the Marlins, who sits with a 5.11 ERA on the season. Chen has struggled with allowing the long ball, while posting an ERA of 4.61 in 7 road starts.
The Mets counter with Steven Matz, who is battling through some injuries. Matz has been pitching through a bone spur in his elbow, but insists on going here Tuesday. Matz likely won't have the same stuff he's had, which should give the Marlins hitters some good opportunities to put some runs up.
Some trends to consider. Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in New York. Over is 35-15-2 in Cuzzis last 52 Tuesday games behind home plate.
Given the starters here, along with a home plate umpire that sees a lot of Overs, this is a nice spot given the total of only 8.
Seattle @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -5
This is a long road trip for Seattle. They are a young, rebuilding team with a poor road record. Seattle is short on depth and experience, last in the league in rebounding, and ninth in points. They've lost six of nine and head out on the road after a four-game homestand, losing the last game 83-78. That game was a pick 'em, part of a 3-8 ATS run. Seattle shot just 42% at home to Dallas and got outrebounded 38-28. The Storm are 4-9 ATS against the Eastern Conference, plus 7-20 ATS playing on three or more days of rest. That rebounding disadvantage will be a concern against an Atlanta squad that is second in the WNBA in rebounding. Atlanta is riding a five-game skid, but has played well, losing four times on the road. One was in double OT, and they lost two others by four and three points. Atlanta has excellent balance and frontcourt play, with forward Angel McCoughtry (19.6 points per game), Center Elizabeth Williams (13.1 points per game, 7.4 rebounds per game), and guard Tiffany Hayes (16.1 points per game). Hayes missed last week's loss at Seattle because of a hamstring injury, but returned with 32 points in Thursday's loss at top-ranked Los Angeles. The Dream are 10-3 ATS playing on one day of rest, plus 8-3 ATS against the Western Conference. They match up well as Seattle is 3-8 ATS against the Dream, including an 0-5 ATS run at Atlanta.
New York Yankees -109
The New York Yankees clearly have the edge on the mound tonight behind Masahiro Tanaka. They will also be motivated to avenge a loss in Game 1 of this series yesterday, and I look for Tanaka and company to get it done.
Tanaka is 5-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He has been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in seven starts. Tanaka is also 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against Chicago.
Carlos Rodon has been pretty inconsistent this season for the White Sox, going 2-6 with a 4.24 ERA and 1460 WHIP in 15 starts, including 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in eight home starts. Rodon is also 1-1 with an ugly 10.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two career starts against New York.
Tanaka is 21-6 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last two seasons. New York is 8-2 in Tanaka's last 10 starts overall. The White Sox are 3-8 in Rodon's last 11 starts.
Oakland -105 over MINNESOTA
Sometimes the betting line will tip us off as to which team is the smart bet and this is one of those times. The A?s are not known for their offense and Minnesota?s offense is actually ranked lower than Oakland?s. Sean Manaea is regarded as one of Oakland?s best starters behind Rich Hill. Despite those facts, the total on this game opened at 9?. That?s a big number and it suggests to us that one of these teams is likely to go off. We?re betting it?s the A?s because Manaea is emerging to elite status.
Manaea is a strong prospect who tapped into that upside in June. He posted the highest swinging strike rate of any AL pitcher in the month of June (15.3%) and he paired it with an elite 67% first-pitch strike rate and solid 34% ball%. All are numbers that supported the excellent command he posted in June: 9.0 K?s/9, 2.7 BB?s/9 and 45% grounders. With two off-speed strikeout pitches in his arsenal (20% swing and miss on slider, 19% swing and miss on changeup), Manaea has the goods to dominate. Improving his command against RH bats is the missing piece right now but that?s getting better too. Manaea is a 6'5", 245-pound lefty with a plus fastball that he throws on a downhill plane. He is especially dominant when he can repeat his delivery, which was absent early in the year. He?s a former #1 draft pick that was making short work of the Pacific Coast League batters last year, who were hitting just .232 against him. He was striking out 10.5 batters per nine too. This kid is damn good and he?s going to be here for a very long time.
Tommy Milone has started six games for the Twins this season. He is winless with a 6.23 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Milone is in the rotation because Pat Dean was sent back down to Rochester. Had things worked out with Dean, Milone would still be in the minors. Surrendering seven earned runs to the Yankees at home on June 17 might have been the trigger point for Dean, forcing the Twins to hope that Milone's newly found aggressive approach on the mound will be an improvement. Since being demoted to the bullpen, then passed over by 29 teams while on waivers, Milone produced outstanding numbers at Rochester (AAA), including a 4-0 record in seven starts with a 1.66 ERA. Compared to his 6.23 ERA with the Twins, that seems remarkable. Milone (86.9 velocity) will need to rely heavily on excellent defense and solid run support from the last-place Twins to replicate those numbers. Milone did the exact same thing last year. He got wrecked in four April starts and was sent down. He then shredded Triple-A for two months (3 BB/47 K in 39 IP) and returned to the Twins in the 2nd half with uneven results. Dude is up now to eat innings and the posted total says he?s not even worth watching from a distance.
Pittsburgh +141 over ST. LOUIS
We played the Pirates a couple of times this past weekend and cashed out both times but missed a couple of more opportunities including last night in the opener of this series. After a horrible month of June in which the Pirates had the second worst record in the majors, their stock is lower than it?s been for quite some time. Despite winning the opener in this series yesterday, sweeping the A?s and taking two of three from the M?s last week, the Pirates stock is still low so we?re going to keep buying until the market adjusts.
Mike Leake is decent but with underwhelming stuff, he?s way too big a risk in this price range. He has now made 26 career starts against Pittsburgh so they have the book on him for sure. Furthermore, Leake is just 1-3 through seven starts in his new home park where he owns a 4.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Leake has a 4% swing and miss rate, which means he relies heavily on the variances of batted balls in play and his defense, which incidentally has been one of the worst in MLB this season.
A former two-way college player, Steven Brault has produced on the mound since being drafted in 2013 out of D-II Regis in Denver. He was the first player to be Rocky Mountain Conference first-team as a pitcher and outfielder. Brault played center field and hit .397, and his athleticism has helped him on the mound. In two pro seasons, he has logged a 2.61 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, yielding just five homers over 189 innings. Brault profiles as a command-and-control lefty with a fastball that ranges from 88-92 mph. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, and he also throws a slider. Brault has a solid delivery, fields his position well and changes speeds.
The Pirates traded Travis Snider to the Orioles for Brault and fellow lefthander Stephen Tarpley just before spring training last year. Snider was released by the Orioles in August (and subsequently re-signed with the Pirates), while Brault had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the Pirates system. Brault was a standout high school player in Grossmont, Calif., but he opted to play at the NCAA Division II level because he is a talented singer and Regis (Colorado) is one of the few schools that offer a vocal performance major. Brault has outstanding command of his pitches and pounds the bottom of the strike zone. That allows him to induce a healthy ratio of groundball outs and keep the ball in the park. He allowed just four home runs in 28 starts in 2015, which he finished with 90 innings at Double-A Altoona. Brault also knows how to swing the bat, as he went 7-for-16 (.438) in 2015, which makes him even more useful in the NL. Nobody really knows how a rookie making his first start will do. There is risk but there is also great upside because of the unknown and the price. Brault has the pitching know-how, the athletic ability and the makeup of an impact starter so we?re more than happy to put this gamble in play.
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Steven Brault:
While some people may not know much about Brault, I have experienced first hand what he brings to the table. A few weeks ago, I had the opportunity to talk with Brault following a rehab start for the West Virginia Black Bears. The 24-year old sustained a strained hamstring on May 8, but has since returned to Indianapolis and should make a good first impression on Pirates fans seeing him for the first time.
Bucs have another ground ball pitcher
Brault primarily pitches to contact and relies on inducing ground ball outs. The Pirates have plenty of experience with ground ball pitchers, having had Charlie Morton on the roster for a number of years. In his rehab start for West Virginia on June 20, Brault induced six ground ball outs in four innings of work.
After a shaky return to the diamond in Indianapolis, Brault settled down in his last start on June 30 against the Toledo Mud Hens. In five shutout innings, Brault induced three groundball outs, but even some of the hits he allowed were still balls hit on the ground that snuck through some gaps.
Inducing ground ball outs and even fly outs are vital to Brault?s success as he doesn?t have lights out stuff that allows him to completely blow by hitters. He can easily rack up the strike outs, but he isn?t dependent on it. He is a pitcher that is much more focused on allowing his defense to help him out than on trying to strike everyone out.
Simply throwing strikes is key
Throwing pitches for strikes is an obvious path to success for any pitcher, at any level. However, for Brault in particular, he knows that it will lead to him having a successful outing. In fact, when I did talk to him, he had some things to say about his ability to throw strikes, particularly in his rehab start.
?It?s nice to be able to come in and be able to throw strikes because that?s what I do and that?s how I?m going to be effective,? Brault said. ?It?s good to have that already there and I can build forward on that.?
On that day, Brault threw 40 of his 53 pitches for strikes and showed tremendous command on the mound, another key for the left hander. In his first start back at Indy following his rehab, Brault got away from what usually makes him effective, throwing only 43 of his 77 pitches for strikes and allowing four runs (two earned) on five hits while walking two and striking out three in only 3.1 innings.
He was much better in his start against Toledo in which he threw 47 of his 72 pitches for strikes in five innings of work. The only trouble he had in this start was that he hit two batters and walked two, while striking out six, making his pitch count relatively high.
There is the possibility that Brault will throw a lot of pitches, becoming unavailable to pitch deep into a game. This season, he has yet to pitch more than six innings in a contest. However, if he?s throwing strikes or making guys chase at pitches out of the zone, at least he is being effective. Tonight, fans can expect this to be his focus.
Impressive arsenal of pitches
Aside from an ability to get ground ball outs and a focus on throwing pitches for strikes, Brault has himself a nice selection of pitches to use on the mound. He has a nice fastball that doesn?t exactly overwhelm a hitter, but he has a ton of command when using it and is effective. Brault also has a slider in his arsenal that he uses to fool hitters. Following his rehab start, he also discussed wanting to work on his delivery and his slider, a pitch that was initially giving him some issues.
?The main goal for me is be comfortable with my delivery again, which I did feel comfortable tonight,? Brault said. ?The only pitch I had a problem with a points was my slider. It was giving me a little bit of trouble just because it?s hard to kind of get everything back. All the timing together at the same time.?
Brault also has an average changeup, but it provides another good secondary off speed pitch that he can use to fool hitters.
Brault?s stuff isn?t overpowering by any means. The Pirates No. 17 prospect relies on pounding the strike zone and mixing his pitches well to have success over hitters. It will be a more difficult task to do this against major leaguers, but as long as Brault stays focused at the task at hand, he will be up for the challenge.
Impressive statistics in Minor Leagues
Despite battling his hamstring injury, Brault has put up stellar numbers at the minor league level this season. In nine total starts (Eight at Indianapolis, one at West Virginia), Brault is 2-3 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has also walked 15 batters while compiling 49 strikeouts in 39 innings pitched.
He has endured a trade early in his career and still been able to speed through the Pirates minor league system, compiling a career 27-17 record with a 2.51 ERA in 74 career minor league appearances.
