Now I have guessed right 5 times and wrong 1 in the championship series.
To understand this game tonight we have to know what happen in the first game. Well that's pretty easy. NJ outplayed Bos. They also got the right calls at the right time which means they should have won going away. They didn't. NJ shot right at 50% while Bos shot 41. NJ hit right at 90% from the foul line while Bos hit 65. Bos fouled 4 more times than NJ but shot 1 more foul. Even with that, they were out-scored at the foul line by 6. Only lost by 7. They were out rebounded by 11 boards (that's bad) but won the offensive boards by 1. Let's look even closer at the scoring. This might be the key to the game. MacCulloch and the role players all shot over 50% scoring 49 of the 104. The other four starters shot just 41% and only scored half the points. That's a little out of line. That's the same per centage as Bos as a team shot. Now it boils down to what should we be able to depend on and what would it be reasonable to think will not happen again tonight?
What can we count on? Well, it would be safe to say that Mac won't get 14. That's 9 above his play-off ave and 6 above his season ave and enough to have won the first game. NJ won't be shooting 50% for the game and 90% from the foul line. Bos should be able to hit 41% again. Both Walker and Pierce were below their season ave but in line with their play-off ave. Paul Pierce will not shoot 53% from the foul line. Give him the other 4 he would usually have got and they at least pull the line. He's an 84% foul shooter. NJ role players won't get half the points. If they do then NJ loses big. Here's the big question mark. What will the refs do? The last game I assumed correctly that they would give the edge to NJ and they did. It didn't show up in the stats the next day but believe me the right call at the right time or no call at the right time can control a game and all you can do is bitch like a lot of people did last night.
A quick look at the total might give us a way to go there. In the last game NJ jumped to a 16 point cushion (totals) in the first qt. Ater that they actually lost 3 points. One 50 point qt won't get it tonight. They have to ave 47. In the last game, Bos scored 97 points for only the third time in the play-offs and NJ for the sixth time. I look for a little more d (not much) out of both teams. I don't look for 50% shooting for the game out of NJ and I don't look for 97 points out of Bos. That's what it will take to get this game over. Kidd will push the ball but maybe someone will get back on d for Bos. I don't see many changes in the game plan from either coach. Just more effort out of Bos.
Right now, it is either Bos and under or a pass for me tonight. By the way, that line coming out 1 to 1' points lower after NJ won is bothering me. What has changed since the first game? When I think I have the answer to that question I'll know what I want to do.
To understand this game tonight we have to know what happen in the first game. Well that's pretty easy. NJ outplayed Bos. They also got the right calls at the right time which means they should have won going away. They didn't. NJ shot right at 50% while Bos shot 41. NJ hit right at 90% from the foul line while Bos hit 65. Bos fouled 4 more times than NJ but shot 1 more foul. Even with that, they were out-scored at the foul line by 6. Only lost by 7. They were out rebounded by 11 boards (that's bad) but won the offensive boards by 1. Let's look even closer at the scoring. This might be the key to the game. MacCulloch and the role players all shot over 50% scoring 49 of the 104. The other four starters shot just 41% and only scored half the points. That's a little out of line. That's the same per centage as Bos as a team shot. Now it boils down to what should we be able to depend on and what would it be reasonable to think will not happen again tonight?
What can we count on? Well, it would be safe to say that Mac won't get 14. That's 9 above his play-off ave and 6 above his season ave and enough to have won the first game. NJ won't be shooting 50% for the game and 90% from the foul line. Bos should be able to hit 41% again. Both Walker and Pierce were below their season ave but in line with their play-off ave. Paul Pierce will not shoot 53% from the foul line. Give him the other 4 he would usually have got and they at least pull the line. He's an 84% foul shooter. NJ role players won't get half the points. If they do then NJ loses big. Here's the big question mark. What will the refs do? The last game I assumed correctly that they would give the edge to NJ and they did. It didn't show up in the stats the next day but believe me the right call at the right time or no call at the right time can control a game and all you can do is bitch like a lot of people did last night.
A quick look at the total might give us a way to go there. In the last game NJ jumped to a 16 point cushion (totals) in the first qt. Ater that they actually lost 3 points. One 50 point qt won't get it tonight. They have to ave 47. In the last game, Bos scored 97 points for only the third time in the play-offs and NJ for the sixth time. I look for a little more d (not much) out of both teams. I don't look for 50% shooting for the game out of NJ and I don't look for 97 points out of Bos. That's what it will take to get this game over. Kidd will push the ball but maybe someone will get back on d for Bos. I don't see many changes in the game plan from either coach. Just more effort out of Bos.
Right now, it is either Bos and under or a pass for me tonight. By the way, that line coming out 1 to 1' points lower after NJ won is bothering me. What has changed since the first game? When I think I have the answer to that question I'll know what I want to do.
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NICE TO GET THE DOUBLE!!! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!