Tuesday 12/28

[Smitty]

Birmingham Bowl

houston (ML) 1 unit to win 1.
over (51.5) 3 units. went back and forth on the side a few times. houston feels like the "easy" pick, because who the hell knows if auburn will show up. they've dropped 5 straight, including the OT loss in the iron bowl. and houston has had a few pretty solid teams recently. however, i don't think this is one of them. the AAC was very top-heavy this year, and somehow houston avoided cincinnati during the regular season. i'm not super impressed by the rest of their conference wins. they went 3-1 out of conference, beating rice, grambling, and uconn. and losing to texas tech. also, dana holgorsen is 2-6 in bowl games.

wait a minute, i'm betting houston, right? *sigh* yeah, i am. it's bryan harsin's first year coaching at auburn. again, coaches have a terrible bowl record in their first year at a school. also, it's kind of a home game for auburn, as their campus is only about 2 hours from birmingham.

as far as the total, neither team has a great run game, and both teams are solid at stopping the run. i think we're going to see, pardon the expression, A LOT OF BALLS IN THE AIR. i may get old, but i'll never grow up.

 

[Smitty]

First Responder Bowl

First Responder Bowl

Air Force (ML) 6 units to win 6. easily my favorite play of the day. i just don't know how motivated louisville will be to stop the triple option. their run defense is already very weak - 95th in the country, allowing 4.5 yards/carry. on the other side of the ball, louisville is a little run heavy, although a lot of called passes turned into runs with cunningham. and AF is 8th in the country, allowing 3.16 yards/carry. i think AF can make louisville somewhat one-dimensional.

 

[LordofBalls]

Air Force is LEGIT! they play w/effort the entire gm... their option offense is very difficult to stop... they pass better than either Army/Navy... they WILL score pts, w/few turnovers..

got no idea bout Houston.. and Auburn usually doesn't show up well in these bowl gms as they don't seem to have much interest after the Bama game... but if they fall behind, they usually have enough athletes at the "talent" positions to be able to make some big plays.. so a sm/med play on OVER sounds the way to go...


wondering your take on NC St v UCLA tomorrow eve...?
Weather in low 50s, probable showers throughout the evening...
Ucla w.o their leading tackler (DB)... but offense is there... NC St no issues themselves

I've seen UCLA bout 5 times... they have a great OFFENSE! Thompson-Robinson verrry athletic at QB.. accurate passer, exceptionally fast when he takes off... have a Great TE.. Great RB.. and some brilliant play designs on offense...
barring excessive turnovers, I expect them to get a minimum of 30+pts... probably 40+ by themselves.
and
their defense doesn't have much of a pass rush usually, allowing opponents too much time to find a receiver and score some pts of their own.

OVER 60 for me... Ucla tt Over too (can't get it til tomorrow at my book)

Keep it going Smitty ~ always a pleasure :SIB

LoB

 

[Smitty]

Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl

texas tech (ML) 1 unit to win 2.7
under (58.5) 3 units. OMG, it's mike leach against the school that fired him!! that's the most fake excitement i can muster for this game. my least favorite bowl games are matchups of 2 mediocre teams from power 5 conferences. on paper, sure, miss st is by far the better team. but no way in hell am i going to root for mike leach in this game. i'm also not going to lose the vig. so just a small ML play.

the total feels about 6 or 7 points low, begging for an over bet. so, yeah, under i go. i'll probably lose this in the closing minutes when leach decides not to take a knee with 30 seconds left and a 17-point lead, just to show up his old school

 

[Smitty]

thanks, LoB. that's next on my list. couple quick thoughts... i hate chip kelly.... the last time i saw thompson-robinson was 2 years ago, and he was laughably bad (although i see he's cut his INTs in half, while raising his yards/att by a full yard)... and nc st's defense was pretty good this year. right up until they played good offenses.

 

[Smitty]

Holiday Bowl

Holiday Bowl

ucla (ML) 2 units to win 2.2
over (60) 4 units. i keep looking at nc st's last game. they gave up nearly 300 yards rushing to unc. but still scored 2 TDs in the last 1:35 to win by 4. so i have 2 questions. 1) after a win like that over their in-state rival, how focused are they on ucla? and 2) have they fixed their issues with the run defense?

i'm betting that the answer to both is no. i just don't see nc st slowing down the ucla offense.

on the other side of the ball, nc st has scored at least 28 points in 8 straight games. and there's nothing to indicate ucla's defense is capable of holding them under that #.

looks like a good ol' fashioned holiday bowl shootout. let's call it... ucla 45-37.

interesting note... apparently this is chip kelly's first bowl game that is not a bcs game.

 

[Smitty]

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

the bowl so lame, they didn't even bother giving it a name. just a sponsor. ok, ok, it started as the copper bowl and at one point was the cactus bowl.

wvu (ML) 3 units to win 4.7. i refuse to waste more than a few minutes on this garbage game, even if i'm still betting on it. i also refuse to bet on a team that lost to illinois and BOWLING GREEN this year. AT HOME!! oh, and minnesota is 0-3 in this bowl game.

neal brown, the wvu coach, is 4-0 SU in bowl games.

 

[PJ12]

Very happy to see you guys like the Force :0074 I had made a nice size wager on them myself. The Ville wont be able to handle them. I think AF wins big actually.

Always look forward to reading your posts Smitty (and LOB) you guys have a great New Year :toast:

Go Falcons

 

[PJ12]

Air Force (ML) 6 units to win 6. easily my favorite play of the day. i just don't know how motivated louisville will be to stop the triple option. their run defense is already very weak - 95th in the country, allowing 4.5 yards/carry. on the other side of the ball, louisville is a little run heavy, although a lot of called passes turned into runs with cunningham. and AF is 8th in the country, allowing 3.16 yards/carry. i think AF can make louisville somewhat one-dimensional.

I almost feel lucky. Great call :0074

 

[ejthree]

Nice work Smitty x34:

 

[Betone]

Good job Smitty :0074

 

[Smitty]

thanks, guys. got a little close for comfort until AF recovered the onside kick.

certainly didn't think it would be the passing game that was the difference for the falcons.

 

[rob22278]

Keep up the great work sir. Your AF and TT money line call made me add to my bets and made for a very profitable day! Thanks for the write ups and picks.

 

[Smitty]

Keep up the great work sir. Your AF and TT money line call made me add to my bets and made for a very profitable day! Thanks for the write ups and picks.

fantastic, i'm glad to hear it! and you are welcome. let's keep hitting some winners. :toast:

 

[ejthree]

Solid as usual..:0074