Tuesday and Thursday Bowls

[Smitty]

not sure how much i'll be able to get to a computer the next couple days, so posting these now.

Merry Christmas to all Madjackers.

Hawaii Bowl

Boise (+3) 1 unit. I don't love this play. don't even like it that much. but I gotta take 3 points from a team that lost their last 5 games of the season (albeit all to very good teams) and lost their last game to their in-state rival. and the way they lost that game.... after taking the lead for the 2nd time in the 4th quarter with 1:38 left, they let oregon go 83 yards in 9 plays for the winning touchdown. tough to bounce back from that one.

 

[Smitty]

Little Caesars Pizza Pizza Bowl

Little Caesars Pizza Pizza Bowl

pitt (+4) 2 units. I've come full circle on this one, mostly because of the line movement. about 60% on bg and the line has dropped. well, 3 logical explanations for this.

1) the mac is just terrible. their ATS record in bowls over the last few years is really bad, and they are already 0-2 this year.

2) the mac championship was the falcons' bowl game. I gotta figure that huge win made their season. it's actually possible they will be the less-motivated team in this game.

3) clearly the panthers will be out to avenge their loss to bg in 2008.

ok, maybe just the first 2.

over (50) 1 unit. I don't know that either team will be particularly fired up for this game. and I really wasn't very impressed by bg's defense. I think we're gonna see some points in this one.

 

[Smitty]

Poinsettia Bowl

Poinsettia Bowl

ah, the grandmommy of them all... the poinsettia bowl.

Utah st (+1.5) 4 units. absolutely love this play. (of course, I also loved fresno st) as soon as I saw this line, I knew I'd be hammering the aggies. I'd be a little surprised if they're not favored by game time.

only factor keeping this from being a 5-unit play - utah st is led by a first-year head coach. 1st-year head coaches are 40-69 ATS in bowl games since 1990, including a 1-4 mark last year.

let's start with the obvious - motivation. northern ill was looking forward to their second straight bcs game. no chance they are fired up to play utah st in the poinsettia bowl.

but you know what? even without the motivational edge, utah st would easily beat northern ill. the reason is their rush defense. the aggies give up 2.8/yards/carry. that's 3rd in the country. the huskies couldn't consistently sustain drives against bowling green. utah state's defense is MUCH better than bowling green's. I expect that defense to dominate this game.

on the other side of the ball, obviously the loss of chuckie keaton was huge for the aggies. but they bounced back to put together a solid season. I think they'll find a little less resistance to the ground game than in their last game. northern ill's defense is not very good.

the aggies should grind out a convincing win in this game.

under (58) 2 units. not much to add - the aggies should be able to contain lynch and, even as bad as northern ill's defense is, I don't think utah state is going to light them up. I expect they'll pound the ball on the ground to keep lynch on the sideline as long as possible.