Tuesday August 7th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday August 7th 2007

yesterday: 3-3 +0.55
August: 29-23 +6.98
ml 12-10 +0.29
rl 4-1 +3.69
totals 7-6 -0.85
parlays 6-6 +3.85
system picks still 5-5 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-3 yesterday; 7-10 in August

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Phil 63% (-155)+2
Mets 61 (-141)+2
Cin 60 (-106)+8
cubs 56 (-115)+2
sd 65 (-145)+5 RL 50 (+115)+3
Col 56 (-116)+2
pitt 55 (+122)+9
Sf 53 (-147)-7 wash 47 (+139)+5
Det 55 (-175)-9 tb 45 (+167)+7
seat 58 (+100)+8
nyy 69 (-145)+9 RL 55 (+101)+5
Kc 61 (-103)+10
clev 59 (-125)+3
Tex 53 (-106)+1
Laa 57 (-113)+3

system totals

fla@Phil over10.5 65% (-118)+10 --ump N/A
atl@Mets un8.5 65 (+101)+15 --ump N/A
cubs@Hou ov9 65 (-115)+11 --ump Timmons is even
nyy@Tor ov10.5 65 (-105)+13 --ump Hernandez is even


Got a bit lucky on that one Texas game (Astros) so to hell with the Rangers. Went 2-1 on totals. Pushed one IF play and lost the other. Had light action so a light plus is acceptable; at least it was a plus. I like Tuesday's board, somewhat, so a 5th winning day in a row sounds plausible?

Reds, Padres, Yankees and Royals are system picks for Tuesday (I'll probably do ROI breakdowns so I'll save my comments on these until then). Apparent value, also, with the Pirates, Nationals, D'Rays and Mariners. Nats and D'Rays are the scary ones; check out Robertson's previous work vs the D'Rays (very bad), and his work lately in general, and maybe you can see where I'm coming from on that one. Pirates are a little less scary, especially the way the D'Racks are NOT hitting lefties (OPS under .700), but it's hard to say how Gorzelanny performs after his minor injury. Mariners I'll try as Trachsel is 0-4, in 4 vs, with an era over 8.

System totals are starting the month very slowly. I won't touch the Minute Maid game, after yesterday's pitcher's duel, and I'll actually drop the call a bit if Soriano is still out, meaning it won't be a system total. I'll pass on the Shea total as I'll be a Mets player AND both teams are swinging good lately. Might try the Philly total, though Moyer just owns the Marlins (5-0, 2.45 era in 5; includes 1 gem in '07); still, Marlins OPS vs L 50 points higher than vs R (near .820) and the Phillies OPS last 7 is near .900, and close to .850 at home for the season. The Jays total is a tough go; how will Clemens perform?...will Towers survive through 4?...I might totally spectate on this game and hope for a miracle (i.e. a Jays victory).

Will post plays and additional info as the caffeine and other mind-toys caress my borderline sanity.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

marlins ov5 -115 (+7)team great vs lefties but not against Moyer
Phillies ov5.5 -115 (+16)looks quite safe
braves un4 -110 (-10)Perez has been solid vs Braves before
Reds ov4.5 -130 (+5)moneyline looks better
cubs ov4.5 -120 (+11)could get this without Soriano; Williams hit hard by 'em before and has been nothing special lately
Cards un3.5 -115 (-15)maybe at a 4; Cards bats exploding yesterday is a turn-off
D'Backs un4.5 +100 (-9)Tom likely doesn't work long (recent injury) and Pitt's pen is nothing special; Pitt moneyline might be better
Giants un4.5 -115 (-7)Bacsik not looking too bad and Giants having real trouble with lefties
d'rays ov5 -105 (+9)team is solid vs lefties (OPS over .800) and has smoked Nate before; might be best on play on D'Rays Tuesday
Tigers ov5.5 -130 (+6)I think they'll need to score to win this one
seat ov5 -135 (+10)moneyline looks better, to me, as the M's aren't swinging so hot lately; Trachsel very poor career work vs M's
nyy ov6 +100 (+24)I have the Yanks sticks, for this contest, rated higher than any other team at any point this season (even them)
twins un4.5 -125 (-10)Twins have scored 4 or less in 13 of their past 14
indians ov5 -120 (+9)Danks is a flop as a 1st-round pick, and he's usually doing short outtings which should give the Indians a crack (or two) at the Chisox crappy pen


That's the best looking ones, as far as system numbers go.
Yanks over looks the most promising.
Phillies and Indians over, and Twins under, also look good to me.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(Reds,padres,yankees,Royals)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Reds 60% (-106)+8

briefly:
--Reds a small edge at SP (though BP favours Lad)
--Reds a tiny edge at the plate, despite their poor work vs lefties--they've hit Mark before and Reds 7-day totals are much higher than the slumping Dodgers 7-day totals (or longer)
--Reds only 6-12 at home to lefties
--Dodgers 18-20 on the road to righties

-106 is 94.3 cents on the dollar
60 x 0.943 = 56.58
40 x -1......= -40
--------------------------------
.................16.58%


Not too shabby.
Arroyo is coming off a dog start, but 2 of his 3 before that were very good; I'm looking for a bounce-back game from him here.
Dodgers are fading fast.
Worth a try.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

padres 65% (-145)+5
(barely a pick...+5 at 65%)

briefly:
--a total mismatch at SP here; Peavy has righted the ship over his past 2, looking phenomenal
--bats are close to even, here, as Padres 7-day totals are respectable, for a change, while Cards, before Monday, were struggling some; Padres with the much softer opponent to hit off of
--Padres 18-14 on the road to righties
--Cards 19-15 at home to righties

-145 is 69 cents otd
65 x 0.69 = 44.85
35 x -1.....= -35
-------------------------------
..................9.85%


Price is keeping the ROI down.
Still...should be low-risk for the SP mismatch.
I had backed off of Peavy, as he was still commanding a high price even during his struggles, but I think that it's safe to back him again.
Yesterday's result isn't very encouraging, as far as backing the Padres goes, but I'll give it a shot.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

yankees 69% (-145)+9
(couple of pretty high calls for these visitors)

briefly:
--Yankees likely destroy Towers...again (he' 2-8, 5.03 era vs); team total over 6, at +100, looks like a gift
--Clemens has been shaky over his past 2 but has good numbers vs Jays; a bounceback game is likely, or at least good enough work to back all of the run-support that he'll get
--Yankees a massive edge at the plate for this contest

-145 is 69 cents otd
69 x 0.69 = 47.61
31 x -1.....= -31
-----------------------------
.................16.61%


That's a fantastic result for a 69% call; juice is up there, but not out-of-reach.
Any half-decent game by the Rocket will get the job done here.
I was thinking about avoiding the Yankees for this series, as a huge Jays fan, but I like the price on the Pinstripers here...I don't know what to do.
Jays had won 8 straight at home before yesterday, but the Yankees appear to be on a mission.
This one looks like a cinch.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Royals 61% (-103)+10
(should be the highest ROI...might make 20%)

briefly:
--Royals with a decent edge at SP (Twins have the BP edge)
--Bats comparable, but Twins sticks in a real funk for several weeks now (they've scored 4 or less in 13 of their past 14)
--Royals own a decent home-field advantage (though only 18-22 at home to righties) while the Twins don't travel that well (17-20 on the road to righties...could be worse)
--KC enjoyed a day of rest while the Twins were busy getting shut down by Byrd's complete game

-103 is 97 cents otd
61 x 0.97 = 59.17
39 x -1.....= -39
------------------------------
..................20.17%


The best of the lot, and not even the lowest probability, as I like this one slightly better than the Reds.
Bannister has been quite good, and quite consitent; I think that he is clearly the Royals best SP this season, even better than Meche.
I can't pass this up...not the way the Twins aren't hitting these days (OPS .648 past 7 days...KC not much higher, at .675, but Royals OPS at home is .760, or about 80 points higher than when they're on the road).
Looks good; just hope they can get to Boof.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Also-rans
(pirates,mariners)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

pirates 55% (+122)+9

briefly:
--I have Gorzelanny rated fairly low (for him) for this contest due to recent minor injury; still giving an edge at SP to Pitt
--D'Backs a much better pen
--D'Backs .686 OPS vs L
--Pirates .698 OPS vs R
--D'Backs 7-day OPS .614
--Pitt's 7-day OPS .917 (about the highest that I can recall it at)

55 x 1.22 = 67.1
45 x -1.....= -45
----------------------------
....................22.1%


Makes this play look worthwhile.
Owings was pretty good in his last but has been garbage for much of the season.
Trick, for this one, is to get Tom to go at least 6--hopefully 7; Pitt's iffy pen might be able to hold a lead if they've got one by then
Fairly low probability but the line is attactive.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

mariners 58% (+100)+8

briefly:
--giving a medium-sized edge to the SP here (Trachsel, not so hot lately, is 0-4, 8.05 era in 4 vs the M's)
--edge to M's bullpen
--giving a tiny edge to M's sticks in this one

58 x 1 = 58
42 x -1 = -42
-----------------------
..............16%


Quite acceptable.
M's prices are down as they've been losing quite a bit over the past few weeks, but I think that they can get it done here.
Weaver's past 2 have been nothing special, but it's not like he's returned to his early-season form or anything (in which case I wouldn't touch him).
Trachsel decent in his last but he's been a good fade for most of the season--those numbers vs opponent are what sells me on this play.
Looks promising.


That's a look at what the system likes.
I like pretty much the same, but I'm also interested in the Phillies and the Mets; Moyer's great numbers vs Marlins and Vanden Hurk shitiness are the attraction in that one (not to mention the Phillies 7-day OPS of .811 vs the Marlins at .760). Mets game looks like a big mismatch at SP, to me, while I have the sticks fairly even for that one (Braves only 8-13 on the road to lefties, and have had their share of trouble with Perez before).


My 5-day winning streak is so close that I can taste it.
I want it bad.

 

[Riskbreaker]

nice work EP! gl extending your streak.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks, man...GL with the Nats and D'Rays plays...I think that they're smart moves (so does my system) but I guess that I don't have the nards to try 'em here. I think I'll like the Nats better tomorrow (Redding-Cain)...D'Rays, too, now that I think of it (Shields-Durbin).

Time to post my picks and then plummet my pillow.

Abracadabra!...Good Karma BEHOLDETH!!!

:00hour :00hour :SIB :00hour :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

system picks

Reds -106 1.06/1
padres -145 2.9/2
yankees -145 2.9/2
Royals -103 2.06/2

other picks

Phillies -155 1.55/1
Mets -141 2.11/1.5
mariners +100 1/1

totals

yankees over 6 +100 1/1

9-team IF bet
1.pirates 0.5/0.58
2.Phillies over5.5 0.57/0.5
3.yankees over6 0.5/0.5
4.Royals 0.55/0.5
5.Reds 0.65/0.6
6.mariners 0.6/0.6
7.Mets 1.15/0.8
8.d'rays over5 0.73/0.7
9.Rangers 0.75/0.7
0.5 to win max.5.48


I think that's it for today. Taking a break on the totals.
Yankees look the most probable; Towers era may suffer, here.
Cards DID put up 7 zeros, to go along with the 10-spot they scored, so maybe Peavy can shut 'em down today. Reyes has been decent lately but is a loser.
I'd like to try that Twins team total under 4.5, but the -125 price tag is more than I'm paying for the moneyline so I'll just hope I'm playing it right; game total under 9 looks quite possible but I'll stick with what I've got and hope that Boof gets bopped.

Quick look at Wednesday: Brewers with Gallardo over Francis as Jeff has horrible numbers against the Brewers including one this year; need a reasonable price as Francis has been sharp lately while Brewers not winning much?I'd pay up to -120, actually, but it should be cheaper than that. Braves (Smoltz-Lawrence) look good tomorrow; there'll be juice on this one; I'd try it up to maybe -130. If the Cubs are near even money (Zambrano-Oswalt) then I'd try them, but Carlos may be juicier than Oswalt right now, in the eyes of the linesmakers, and I think I'd have to pass at -110 or more?Oswalt has been pretty sharp lately, Soriano just went on the DL, and Carlos is coming off of a game he had to leave early due to dehydration?a game in which he walked 7 Mets over 5+ innings. Nationals might be worth a shot at big-dog-coin as Redding has been stellar; Cain is 0-2 in 3 vs the Nats (4.35) but has been solid his past couple; total will be a safer play, I think. Orioles (Guthrie-Hernandez) will certainly be worth a shot if it's even money to -110?O's have hit Hernandez before, and hard, but I think I pass at -125 or higher. Twins will have the high call (Santana-Perez) but the line will be near -200, negating any value; maybe the runline, at -120 or better, especially if the Twins score some runs tonight?for a change. Indians have beaten on Garland before, including once in '07, while Sabathia has been great vs the Chisox, including one in '07; if it's as cheap as -140 then I probably try the Indians?maybe up to -150 if the Indians have their way with the Pale Hose tonight. Anything I didn't mention is going to be in the mid-to-low 50's, meaning very tough calls. Phillies will be at 60% if they win and if it's Kendrick (as opposed to Lohse).

That Philly game (vs Willis) and Anaheim (Lester-Moseley) look like they might be system overs. Houston (at 8.5 min.), San Fran (8.5) , Baltimore (9) and Detroit (9.5 or higher) might be system unders; give me decent umps in Houston and San Fran because those look the best to me.

Time for me to pack it in.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Now that's what I'm talkin' about!

System picks:

:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour -0


Gets my winning streak up to

:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour days.


August Rocks!
:weed:

 

[Riskbreaker]

:thumb: