Tuesday Bowls

Smitty

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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I'm not supposed to start losing bowl games until tomorrow. wtf? shitty day yesterday.

Independence, sorry, Advocare V100 Bowl

Arizona (-7.5) 1 unit. hard to really love this game, but I think carey is the best running back in the game and arizona has a better chance of balancing out the running game with a successful passing attack.

over (56.5) 2 units. I know each game is an independent event but, wow, it's tough to play an over right now. 12 straight unders is ridiculous. I think this one is as simple as this... if you like arizona, play the over. if you like bc, play the under.
 
Smitty

Smitty

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Sun Bowl

Sun Bowl

virginia tech (ML) 3 units to win 7.5. I really think the ML is the way to go with this one. the whole key to VT is logan thomas. when he's playing well, the hokies can play with just about anyone in the country. when he's playing like shit (which he does often), they can lose to just about anyone. so if he's going to have a good game today, I fully expect VT to win the game. if he doesn't, they'll get blown out. I just don't see them losing a close game today.

I'm also counting on VT's defense to shut down the run and forcing hundley to pass.

IF IF IF thomas is good today, VT should win this game.

under (47) 2 units. I like the under, but it's also a hedge for me. if we get bad thomas today, VT will have a very difficult time putting up any points.
 
Smitty

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl

rice (+7) 2 units. tough one for me. I had a big play on rice in the conf usa championship game and they came through in a big way. BUT... that was a huge game for them. not only their first conference championship for a senior-laden team, but it was a revenge game as well. now I really don't expect a letdown in a bowl game against an sec team. a win would be a great way for these seniors to go out. but they'll have to play at least that well to keep this one close.

McHargue is going to have to play the game of his life, both throwing the ball and running it, to give the owls' ground game a chance to get established. in their only game against an SEC opponent this year, he played ok in the season opener against texas a&m, completing 18 of 29 for 180, with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. more importantly, he ran 9 times for 78 yards. he'll probably need to do a lot of that today.

I gotta play the team with the huge motivational edge, even if they may need to play a nearly perfect game to have success against an average SEC team.
 
Smitty

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Chick-fil-A Bowl

Chick-fil-A Bowl

duke (+13) 2 units. obviously I am counting on duke to bounce back from that thrashing against fsu. they were completely outclassed in that game (who wasn't outclassed by fsu this year?). but this is a much better matchup. texas a&m's defense is very weak against the run, allowing 5.3 yards/carry. the loss of duncan certainly hurts the blue devils' ground game, but snead is a very capable backup, averaging 6 yards/carry (duncan averaged 5.1). throw in connette in the red zone, and duke should be able to run the ball today. that will open things up for boone, who needs to get back to how he was playing before the florida st game.

one interesting note on a&m.... they played 4 games away from home this year. they were 0-4 ATS.
 
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