breakdown of system statistics
breakdown of system statistics
All-Star break stats breakdown
Side Calls: 745-558 (57.2%)
Totals: 195-147 (57.0%)
Sides breakdown:
All 50's: 404-320 (55.8%)
Low 50's; 51,52,53: 154-120 (56.2%)
Mid 50's; 54,55,56: 132-119 (52.6%)
High 50's; 57,58,59: 118-81 (59.3%)
All 60's: 287-206 (58.2%)
Low 60's; 60,61,62,63: 145-121 (54.5%)
Mid 60's; 64,65,66: 96-57 (62.7%)
High 60's; 67,68,69: 46-28 (62.2%)
All 70's: 51-31 (62.2%)
Low 70's; 70,71,72,73: 38-17 (69.1%)
Mid 70's; 74,75,76: 9-12 (42.9%)
High 70's; 77,78,79: 4-2 (66.7%)
80: 3-1 (75%)
High 60's and 70's need some improvement; June was a punishing month, for statistics (Interleague hurt), but July is starting off fairly well. High 60's are 9-3 (75%) to start July, so I'm getting some improvement where needed. 70+ have been scarce in July but are a so-so 2-1 so far; A's blowing a lead Sunday (with Blanton) was the losing 70 for July.
I need improvement at low 60's, too; a lot of system picks fall in that range (with lines -110 to -130); low 60's are 15-10 to start July (60%) so at least the stats are moving in the right direction.
I wish I could say that I was satisfied with these numbers.
Through May the statistics were great; 70's really rocked in May (88.5% winners).
May's total, for sides, was 249-170, which is 59.4% winners?pretty solid for ALL games.
July has started off 73-44, which is 62.4% winners?there's reason to expect that results will return to May's form.
System picks are a key part of my game.
Overall they're at 147-86 (63.1% winners).
May, again, had the best results at 52-23 (69.3% winners).
July has started out at 15-6?71.4% winners?so again there's reason for optimism.
I'm going to stick with it for now and, maybe, just be a little careful about posting really huge numbers; I'll need a large edge to both the pitching and the bats to produce any more 70's; that's really been the case, so far, there are just a number of teams that can't really be trusted with 70 calls; e.g. the Padres, because of their pathetic offense, or the Phillies, because of their bad bullpen. Big calls often are faced with heavy juice, and I want to try to limit the number of times that I am risking the extra coin.
My next project, for this short break, is to go over all of my picks and to see just how I have performed laying heavy chalk. I'm going to look at every play at greater than -150 for this purpose (-150 seems a good cut-off, as that has a 60% break-even-mark?-150 seems a tolerable limit?anything more and I better have a HUGE probability of hitting). I'll make note of whether of not they're system picks and also the edges I've declared at both pitching and at the plate. I'm probably looking at somewhere between 30-50 plays in that range, and I am very curious to see if they've been worthwhile.
My strategy may be a little different for the second half of the season.
:SIB
