Tuesday July 19 MLB Lines, Discussion, and Picks

bleedingpurple

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Where it is real F ing COLD
Jul 19 951 CINCINNATI REDS M LEAKE -R -118 o8?-115 -1?+135
7:05 PM 952 PITTSBURGH PIRATES J MCDONALD -R +108 u8?-105 +1?-155

Jul 19 953 SAN DIEGO PADRES T STAUFFER -R +131 o7-105 +1?-180
7:10 PM 954 FLORIDA MARLINS A SANCHEZ -R -141 u7-115 -1?+160

Jul 19 955 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS K LOHSE -R -104 o8-120 +1?-220
7:10 PM 956 NEW YORK METS D GEE -R -106 u8EV -1?+180

Jul 19 957 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES C LEE -L -157 o7?-110 -1?+105
8:05 PM 958 CHICAGO CUBS M GARZA -R +142 u7?-110 +1?-125

Jul 19 959 WASHINGTON NATIONALS J ZIMMERMN -R -149 o7?-105 -1?+110
8:05 PM 960 HOUSTON ASTROS J HAPP -L +139 u7?-115 +1?-130

Jul 19 961 ATLANTA BRAVES B BEACHY -R +128 o9-105 +1?-170
8:40 PM 962 COLORADO ROCKIES U JIMENEZ -R -138 u9-115 -1?+150

Jul 19 963 MILWAUKEE BREWERS Y GALLARDO -R -122 o9-105 -1?+130
9:40 PM 964 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS B ENRIGHT -R +112 u9-115 +1?-150

Jul 19 965 LOS ANGELES DODGERS R DE LA RO -R +130 o6?-110 +1?-180
10:15 PM 966 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS M BUMGARNR -L -140 u6?-110 -1?+160

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Jul 19 967 SEATTLE MARINERS M PINEDA -R +104 o7?EV +1?-210
7:05 PM 968 TORONTO BLUE JAYS B CECIL -L -114 u7?-120 -1?+175

Jul 19 969 OAKLAND ATHLETICS G MOSCOSO -R +128 o8?-120 +1?-170
7:05 PM 970 DETROIT TIGERS R PORCELLO -R -138 u8?EV -1?+150

Jul 19 971 BOSTON RED SOX K WEILAND -R -115 o10-115 -1?+140
7:05 PM 972 BALTIMORE ORIOLES J GUTHRIE -R +105 u10-105 +1?-160

Jul 19 973 NEW YORK YANKEES B COLON -R -107 o8?-115 -1?+140
7:10 PM 974 TAMPA BAY RAYS J HELLICKS -R -103 u8?-105 +1?-160

Jul 19 975 CLEVELAND INDIANS MASTERSON -R +113 o7?-105 +1?-210
8:10 PM 976 MINNESOTA TWINS F LIRIANO -L -123 u7?-115 -1?+175

Jul 19 977 CHICAGO WHITE SOX J PEAVY -R -119 o9EV -1?+135
8:10 PM 978 KANSAS CITY ROYALS D DUFFY -L +109 u9-120 +1?-155

Jul 19 979 TEXAS RANGERS A OGANDO -R -131 o7?EV -1?+125
10:05 PM 980 LOS ANGELES ANGELS T CHATWOOD -R +121 u7?-120 +1?-145
 

Woodson

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Yankees vs Tampa Bay 1st Five Innings - Lean Rays

Batastia Colon has gotten rocked his last two starts. I know because I lost good money on him. This is a good place for the Yankees to push for more pitching. His melt down could help management with trades before the deadline. Now certainly none of that comes into Colon pitching ability, but the Rays bats will light him up.

He lasted on 2/3 inning giving up 8 runs against the Blue Jays.

Hellickson (8-7, 3.21 ERA) was originally scheduled to pitch against the Yankees on July 8, but the game was rained out. This time around will mark the right-hander's first career start against New York.

"It has been a long time. I'm ready and excited to get back out there," Hellickson said. "It has kind of gone fast. But it has been a while."

His last time out against the Cardinals on July 3, Hellickson tossed 7 1/3 innings, giving up three runs on six hits for the win.



FOR WEDNESDAY: The Yankees are a Major League-best 28-5 (.848) in day games in 2011.



WHY IM ON THE FENCE:


NYY Hitters AVG AB HR RBI
Robinson Cano .500 2 0 1
Francisco Cervelli .000 2 0 0
Chris Dickerson - - - -
Brett Gardner .000 2 0 0
Curtis Granderson .000 1 0 0
Derek Jeter .500 2 0 0
Andruw Jones - - - -
Brandon Laird - - - -
Russell Martin - - - -
Eduardo Nunez - - - -
Jorge Posada - - - -
Nick Swisher .000 1 0 0
Mark Teixeira .500 2 0 0
 

bleedingpurple

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A few games jump at me right away

Reds - Just think they get the job done. Like Leake over McDonald.

Nats - Well they are playing Houston and like the pitching matchup.

Brewers - Gallardo is a good pitcher even tough the stats do not reflect it.

Maybe the LA Dodgers?? :scared Have to look into this game further,

Tell you right now I am staying away from the Phillies for some time now. Had them parlayed with a few teams last night. Their pitching has been solid but they suck at the plate, showed signs against the Mets but they couldn't hit Lopez last night, plus their lineup is a little bit dinged.

The Twins bother me right now too. They can't hit either and rely on pitching. Liriano is one of the toughest pitchers to predict..

I see everyone is on that Boston over, I won' t tail cause my gut tells me not too.
 

Woodson

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I believe Philly gets back a big bat w Victorina coming off DL.

Also Hamel has had problems with the cubs in the past. Which is why I didn't play it last night. Lee will pitch better.
 

IE

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bullpen team concerns...they can kill a starter.
will only list key arms.

Orioles Michael Gonzalez 3 days in row worked...48 pitches.
Rockies Rafael Betancourt 3 days in row worked.
Pirates Daniel McCutchen 3 days in row worked.
Rays Kyle Farnsworth back to back days...55 high pressure situational pitches last 4 days.
 

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Phils Eye Bullpen Help, Doc Battles Heat


The buzz on the trade market for the past few weeks has centered on the Phillies? need for a right-handed bat, and Charlie Manuel has been among the biggest proponents of the notion.

But as the trade deadline looms ? now just 12 days away ? Manuel has amended his wish list just a bit.

?I think we can definitely could use a reliever, without a doubt,? Manuel said.

In fact, if Manuel can only add one dose of new blood to the Phillies? roster, his preference is for a bullpen arm ? not another bat.

Surprised? You probably shouldn?t be.

The Phillies? bullpen has been solid this season, but has endured a massive amount of attrition thanks to injuries. Closers Brad Lidge, Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson have all spent time on the disabled list, and seven different pitchers have been recalled from Lehigh Valley at some point this season to take a turn in the big-league pen.

While the Phillies have managed to overcome all that attrition for most of the season, the shortage of arms may be catching up with them.

Check out these numbers in the month of July:

Antonio Bastardo, 6 appearances, 1.42 ERA
Ryan Madson: 2 appearances, 5.40 ERA
Drew Carpenter: 3 appearances, 6.23 ERA
David Herndon: 3 appearances, 6.23 ERA
Mike Stutes: 6 appearances, 6.35 ERA
Juan Perez, 4 appearances, 6.75 ERA
Danys Baez, 3 appearances, 13.50 ERA

Obviously it?s a small sample size across the board, and there?s a good chance Madson rounds back into form and Stutes has certainly shown an ability to pitch effectively.

But the bottom line is that there isn?t much depth and there is a lot of uncertainty in the current Phillies bullpen.

Of course, Manuel isn?t just looking for any over-used or overpriced arm. And he?s not exactly willing to settle for a second-rate bat either.

?When I say a reliever or a bat, I?m talking about a good one,? Manuel said. ?If we?re going to get somebody, I?ll tell you like like I tell (Ruben), I want somebody good. I want somebody that?s going to help us. I don?t want what we?ve already got.?

The Phillies have been linked to San Diego relievers Heath Bell and Mike Adams, both of whom should fill Manuel?s standard for a good arm.

But the front office continues to downplay their efforts on the trade market, and there remains the possibility that only a minor deal gets done before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

?If our guys do what they?re capable of doing,? assistant GM Scott Proefrock said, ?we?ll be tinkering around the edges if we do anything.?

In fact, the way Proefrock views things, the Phillies could be getting a lot of new blood around the deadline without having to pull the trigger on a single trade.

Jose Contreras will begin playing catch today, and he?s targeting a return in early to mid August.

Brad Lidge has one more rehab outing scheduled with Reading, but he could be back in the bullpen by the weekend.

Roy Oswalt will throw a bullpen session today, and if he can slide back into the rotation, that would move Kyle Kendrick back to the bullpen, too.

Add those potential additions to the return of Shane Victorino today and the theoretical return of Placido Polanco in the relatively near future, and the trade deadline is more about supplementing the team than dramatically altering it.

?I?ve said the last few days if we get everybody back healthy, even if it?s just five of the six, think about that from the state of the depth that we?d have back to Triple-A,? Proefrock said. ?We don?t have to give up anything for that.?

***

As for the overall trade market, Proefrock said things have been relatively quiet ? even beyond the Phillies? front office.

?From what I?ve been reading it seems to be pretty slow,? Proefrock said. ?I really haven?t seen anything that hasn?t been out there for a few weeks. I still think there?s not a lot of teams that are out of it or are bonafied sellers. I don?t think there?s anybody out there that really has to dump money either.?

Proefrock said he has regular conversations with members of other front office staffs, but that there remains a lot of uncertainty among which teams are looking to deal and, if they are, what they?re willing to settle for in return.

In other words, there?s a lot of teams waiting each other out, and that?s ground a sizable portion of the trade talk to a halt ? for now.

?Either everybody?s doing a good job of playing it close to the vest,? Proefrock said, ?or there?s just not much going on.?

***

All reports after the game last night were encouraging about Roy Halladay, and while it was a scary sight watching the righty leave the mound in the fifth inning last night, signs all point to him making his next start.

?Right now the way the doctors talk and the way Roy talks, I think a couple days and he?ll be fine,? Rich Dubee said.

During the game, however, not so much.

Halladay was experiencing dizziness and dehydration during the game but insisted on heading back out for the fifth. Once on the mound, however, he was having trouble even seeing the signs Carlos Ruiz was putting down.

Chooch was no doubt upset about the situation, and he didn?t speak to reporters after the game. Neither did Halladay, but he?ll chat today and said he ?absolutely? plans to make his next start, which is scheduled for Sunday.

And, as you might notice, that Sunday start means the Phillies will once again use the off day in their schedule (Thursday) to give their starters an extra day of rest. That?s not because of the heat issues Halladay suffered Monday. Dubee said that was the plan all along.






***

I can attest to the conditions at Wrigley last night. It was awful. But beyond just the soaring temperatures and oppressive humidity, Dubee offered one other potential explanation for Halladay?s struggles.

?I?m not making excuses but I?ve said it before ? you?ve got to have your All-Star game, and I understand that, but guys that go to the all-star game come back a little drawn,? Dubee said. ?It?s a busy three days. Look at Beltran with the flu. Doc tonight. That first week back, guys don?t respond too well. It?s just a hectic schedule.?

Obviously the ?Blame Bochy? contingent already had its share of supporters, but it probably wasn?t so much about Halladay?s two-inning workload in the game, but all the tweaks to his schedule that went along with it.

For one, we know Halladay is about as regimented a pitcher as there is in the big leagues, but the All-Star game plays havoc with that. From the changes to throw days to that hectic schedule Dubee complained of, the Midsummer Classic is not an ideal set-up for someone like Halladay.

Second, it may not have been that Halladay?s workload was too much on Tuesday ? but rather that it was too little.

Halladay threw just 19 pitches in the game ? which hardly amounts to a regular start. In fact, it was 12 fewer pitches than Halladay threw in the third inning alone Monday.

He threw his regular between-starts bullpen sessions, too, and obviously there are warm-up pitches that add to the overall total at the all-star game, but the fact remains that the last time he was asked to go deep into a meaningful ballgame was 10 days earlier.

Add the oppressive heat to a ramped-up workload, and perhaps Monday?s abridged outing shouldn?t have been a complete surprise.

In fact, check out Doc?s numbers in his first post after making the all-star team throughout his career:

2002: vs. Boston ? 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H (did not pitch in A-S game)
2003: vs. Boston ? 9 IP, 1 ER, 4 H (did not pitch in A-S game)
2005: Did not pitch, injury before all-star break
2006: vs. Boston ? 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (2 innings in A-S game)
2008: vs. Tampa Bay ? 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (1 inning in A-S game)
2009: vs. Boston ? 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 H (2 innings in A-S game)
2010: vs. Chicago ? 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H (2/3 of inning in A-S game)
2011: vs. Chicago ? 4 IP, 3 ER, 7 H (2 innings in A-S game)

***

For what it?s worth, game-time temperature tonight is expected to be 87 degrees with a 30 percent chance of rain (i.e. a good bit of humidity).

On Wednesday, the game-time temperature is expected to be about 95 degrees with a high of 98.

Cliff Lee is on record as saying he doesn?t enjoy pitching in the heat. Vance Worley, who goes on Wednesday, has had conditioning concerns throughout his career, including just two months ago during a stint in the big-leagues.


And, of course, if the heat was too much for Halladay, it?s hard to have much confidence in anyone else.
 

Woodson

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C. Lee coming off the all-star break:

2010 at BOS he put in 9 innings with 2 ER (7 days rest and played in the AS game)

2009 against SEA he put in 9 innings with 1 ER (9 days rest and didn?t play in the AS game)

2008 at SEA he put in 9 innings with 2 ER (9 days rest and played in the AS game)

2007 against CHW he put in 5.1 innings with 7 ER (10 days rest and didn?t play in the AS game)

2006 at MIN he put in 5.2 innings with 2 ER (7 days rest and didn?t play in the AS game)

C. Lee against the cubs:

In 2011 he put in 8 innings with 1 ER against the Cubs at home June 11th.

In 2010 he put in 9 innings with 1 ER against the Cubs at home June 23rd.
 

Woodson

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Lee has had great success against the Cubs in his career, going 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts.
 

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D-backs: Enright returns to rotation




Right-handed pitcher Barry Enright will make his first start for the D-backs since May 4. After compiling a 1-3 record with a 6.49 ERA, Enright was sent down to Triple-A Reno in early May, where he went 8-2 with a 4.29 ERA in 12 starts for the Aces.

"He's more consistent with his pitches and not walking guys," Gibson said. "His arm's healthy -- we know what he can do, he did it last year. He got to the point where he was pressing. Sometimes it's just good to go down there.

"I think sometimes when, in his situation, you start worrying if you don't pitch good when you might get sent out and it's hard to deal with. We sent him down, and he could finally relax a little bit, work on his pitches, start trusting his stuff."
 

bleedingpurple

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That's right Lee struggled pitching in Texas last year. For me if I am going to lay 150 on the road, the Nats look to be the better option playing Houston and Happ. the Cub's Garza has pitched well of late, so I am locking in the

NATS for sure
 

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Slumping Mariners prepare for Jays, Bautista


On a nine-game losing streak, punchless Seattle opens a three-game series in Toronto on Tuesday against a Blue Jays squad that could be bolstered by the presence of slugger Jose Bautista. Bautista, who leads the majors with 31 homers, has been out since spraining his right ankle on a slide last Thursday against the Yankees. Bautista hit off a tee and played catch Sunday in hopes of returning Tuesday.

The Mariners, meanwhile, have lost nine games in the standings to Texas during their skid.



PITCHING MATCHUP: Mariners RH Michael Pineda (8-6, 3.03 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH Brett Cecil (2-4, 5.66 ERA).

Cecil has made three starts since being recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas, the last two impressive. He gave up four earned runs over 14 innings in those starts, striking out 12 and walking five. In his only career start against Seattle, Cecil allowed two runs over 6 1/3 innings for the win. Pineda, the rookie All-Star, has been hit hard in two of his last three outings. Still, he has 113 strikeouts in 113 innings and a sterling WHIP of 1.04. On April 12, in his only start against Toronto, Pineda went 7 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and one earned run in a 3-2 win. Pineda threw one perfect inning in the All-Star Game, striking out two.

ABOUT THE BLUE JAYS (47-49): Toronto, coming off a four-game split with the Yankees, ranks fourth in the AL with 452 runs and 107 homers. Reliever Jason Fraser made his 453rd career appearance for Toronto on Sunday, moving him past Duane Ward for No. 1 alltime among Jays pitchers. Designated hitter Eric Thames has gone 0-for-8 with four strikeouts the past two games.

ABOUT THE MARINERS (43-52): Seattle has scored 15 runs in the past 10 games. The Mariners have 55 homers as a team, not quite half of Toronto?s total. Seattle has gone nine straight games without a homer, the second-longest streak in team history behind a 15-game drought in 1983. Opponents have outhomered Seattle 14-0 during the Mariners? skid. Ichiro Suzuki doesn?t look as if he?ll reach 200 hits for a 12th straight year. He?s got 102, on pace for 176.
 

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Weather for Camden Yards

82 ? good chance thunderstorms
Humidity 74%
 

Woodson

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That's right Lee struggled pitching in Texas last year. For me if I am going to lay 150 on the road, the Nats look to be the better option playing Houston and Happ. the Cub's Garza has pitched well of late, so I am locking in the

NATS for sure

Excellent Points. I;ll look at the NATS after lunch.

:0074
 

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The Roof

Architects from the HOK Sports Facilities Group recommended early on that a retractable roof would be appropriate for the Texas climate. Since building the first retractable-roof ballpark - the Skydome in 1989 - designers have crafted several kinds of retractable roofs. Some, for instance, open only over a Small central section. The roof at Minute Maid Park, however, retracts completely off the ballpark to reveal the largest open area of any retractable roofed baseball stadium in existence today. A total of 50,000 square feet of glass in the west wall of the retractable roof give fans a view of the Houston skyline, even when the roof is in the closed position.
 

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not sure if they will win the game,

but do like

2 team totals:

florida team total over 3? -120

atlanta team total over 4 -110
 

Woodson

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Hot pitchers
-- Leake is 3-0, 2.13 in his last four road starts. McDonald is 2-0, 3.93 in his last six starts.
-- Stauffer is 3-1, 3.12 in his last four starts.
-- Lee is 5-1, 1.41 in his last seven starts. Garza has a 1.54 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Zimmerman is 4-1, 1.48 in his last eight starts.
-- Jimenez is 2-1, 2.70 in his last five starts. Beachy is 2-0, 2.74 in his last four starts.
-- Giants won last four Bumgarner starts (1-0, 2.73). de la Rosa has a 1.80 RA in his last three starts, but is winless in his last five starts.

-- Cecil has a 2.57 RA in his last two starts.
-- Moscoso is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five big league starts.
-- Masterson is 3-0, 2.05 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- ASanchez is 0-1, 4.76 in his last five starts.
-- Gee is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts. Lohse is 1-3, 5.40 in his last four outings.
-- Happ is 0-7, 5.52 in his last ten starts.
-- Enright is 1-3, 6.49 in six starts this season. Gallardo is 1-2, 8.57 in his last four road starts.

-- Pineda is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
-- Porcello has a 10.27 RA in his last five starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-4, 8.07 in his last five starts. Weiland allowed six runs in four IP in his major league debut, also vs Baltimore.
-- Hellickson is 1-4, 4.88 in his last five starts. Colon allowed 13 runs in 6.1 IP in his last two starts.
-- Liriano has a 6.55 RA in his last four starts.
-- Peavy is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts. Duffy is 0-2, 4.57 in his last four starts.
-- Ogando has a 6.94 RA in his last five starts; Texas scored 46 runs in his last four wins. Angels lost Chatwood's last four home starts (0-3, 6.86).

Totals
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven McDonald starts.
-- Six of last eight Sanchez starts went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Lohse starts.
-- Nine of Philly's last eleven road games went over the total.
-- Five of Happ's last six starts went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Beachy starts stayed under the total.
 

bleedingpurple

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WagerType:pARLAY (6 TEAMS)
Date: Team:
Jul 19 MLB [951] TOTAL o8?-115 (CINCINNATI REDS vrs PITTSBURGH PIRATES) [M LEAKE -R/J MCDONALD -R]
Jul 19 MLB [959] WASHINGTON NATIONALS -145 [J ZIMMERMN -R/J HAPP -L]
Jul 19 MLB [963] MILWAUKEE BREWERS -119 [Y GALLARDO -R/B ENRIGHT -R]
Jul 19 MLB [965] LOS ANGELES DODGERS +132 [R DE LA RO -R/M BUMGARNR -L]
Jul 19 MLB [967] SEATTLE MARINERS +109 [M PINEDA -R/B CECIL -L]
Jul 19 MLB [977] CHICAGO WHITE SOX -113 [J PEAVY -R/D DUFFY -L]
Risking 50 USD To Win 2606.54 USD
Ticket#: 224691

These will all be straight bet as well. Just cant pull trigger on Reds but I think it will get over the total..
 

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Speaking of the heat in Chicago, Wednesday's forcast is calling for temps near 98 with stiff SW 12-24 mph wind, which would be blowing out at Wrigley. I wonder what they will set the total at :shrug:
 
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