Tuesday July 31st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday July 31st 2007

yesterday: 0-1 -2.36
July: 136-125 +10.54
ml 75-58 +1.77
rl 9-5 +7.31
totals 28-32 -6.36
parlays 24-30 +7.82
system picks still 36-23 in July (61%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals still 44-42 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

cin 52% (Livingston-Chico)
col 51 (-104)even
stl 58 (-107)+6
Atl 64 (-160)+2
Mil 52 (+104)+2
Cubs 52 (-125)-4
ariz 64 (-114)+10
Lad 63 (-164)even
Nyy 78 (-201)+11 RL 64 (-105)+12
Bost 56 (-143)-3
Clev 73 (-214)+4 RL 58 (-105)+6
tor 57 (-114)+3
Min 51 (-148)-9 kc 49 (+140)+7
laa 55 (-130)-2
det 59 (-102)+8

system totals

mets@Mil ov9 73% (-111)+20 --ump N/A
cws@Nyy ov10.5 72 (+100)+22 --ump N/A
balt@Bost un8.5 75 (-115)+21 --ump N/A
laa@Seat un8.5 66 (-105)+14 --ump Danley is even
NOTE: super-under Eddings umping Wed (Weaver-Hernandez); will be a system total at an 8
det@Oak un8 67 (-125)+11 --ump Everitt is schizophrenic; even in '04, under in '05, over in '06, and a slight under-lean in '07 (U is 12-7; high K %); calling him even for purposes here


Lost another one that looked in the bag (Jays). What can you do?

Webb's mediocre numbers vs the Padres don't concern me much; he was given a penalty, just the same, and I've still got a monster number for the D'Backs Tuesday. Other key plays for me will be the Yankees to feast on Contreras and the O's-Sox game to stay down. Likin' the Tigers a little tomorrow (today); more so after the W Monday. Others will get consideration; a few likely see my money.

Another month in the books.
Rejoice!

 

[IE]

beauty of a play tomorrow night with lowry and penny..

7.5 is correct # in all eyes....but one of these starters is going to get lit up////leaning penny in that situation...more than lowry.

if we get + money will be one of my biggest plays on the over...keep an eye out on the line extp.

when starters throw quality starts and win/win back to back but k ratio goes down.....be careful

such is case with lowry...AND penny...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Dodgers prefer both lefties AND hitting at home, so maybe they can get to Lowry. Giants bats have been better lately, too.

-112 on the over 7.5.

I dunno...tough call.
Lowry hasn't allowed a homer over his last 6 starts and was solid vs the Braves last time out; Dodgers did just beat on him pretty hard, though, on July 15th. Penny's era last 2 starts was 4.38, so I've lowered my rating for him after his past 2, and I've reduced it slightly due to the abdominal pull, but I'm still left with an above-average rating for this start.

I sort of see what you mean by the K/BB ratio dropping; something that I look at when rating pitchers but not an angle I've really considered in any constructive way.

This has not been my month for totals.

I thought that the Angels-M's might bust the total tonight as both SP's had been roughed up by the opponent before. 2-0 there...glad I saved my coin.

Mussina-Contreras, to me, looks like the best over shot Tuesday. As consistently brutal as Jose has been, I figure that it is quite a longshot that he tosses a good game. Could happen, but I think that any other club either releases the guy or sends him down (or on the DL) the way he's going.

No brews...guess it's coffee and the pipe.
12:30...one bar was closed and the other was semi-closed...wouldn't let me in. I gotta change freakin' neighbourhoods; living WAY to close to Jane-Finch; those that know Toronto will probably understand my desire to move.
It's coming soon.
By next spring if I can get my act together.

Thanks for the headsup, IE, even if I (likely) choose to opt out.

P.S.
If you're leaning towards Penny taking the worst of it then maybe you should give the Giants a go at +156. Tempted, myself, after considering your post here. I don't know if my call of Dodgers 63% is giving Penny enough of a penalty for his little baserunning miscue (aren't these fvckers supposed to be in shape?).

Hopin' to end the month strong.
Was planning to only risk what I was up for the month, but I'm already beyond that. Anything else I try had better look golden.

Jeez...I can Carry On (CSN&Y...need to hear it now...one sec...1...alright...now where was I?...)

Nevermind.

Rejoice...rejoice...we have no choice
but to carry on.
(CSN&Y)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

chit...with yesterday's 1-4 system sides have dropped to 59.5% winners for July (for ALL games).

I was hoping to stay above 60%.

Need an 11-4 on Tuesday to get it up and over that figure.

Could happen.
Went 11-3 on the 27th.
Went 12-3 on the 24th.

System's only picked 2 dogs today (Brewers & Tigers), so I'll need a load of faves to win to pull it off.

Also hoping to keep system totals over .500.
Still be a far cry from June's .655,
or even May's .598.

My bottom line is what matters most.

:00hour SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

rockies ov4.5 -105 (+5)
Pirates un4 -120 (-11)
mets ov4.5 -115 (+6)
Padres un3.5 -130 (-20)
Nyy ov6 +105 (+23)I don't usually get these this high
o's un4 -145 (-12)
Bosox un4.5 -125 (-9)
rangers un4 -135 (-10)
Indians ov5.5 +105 (+8)
jays ov5 -135 (+8)
kc ov4.5 -115 (+6)
M's un4 -130 (-8)
A's un4 -130 (-11)

Yanks over is clearly the best-looking over. Hoppy.
Padres under isn't worth it considering the cheaper moneyline.
Can Carmona keep it up? Hard to say how the Rangers will respond to losing Texeira.
KC didn't score much against Baker but will get a better chance to produce here, methinks, off of a very unimpressive Silva.
A few of these look promising but most look better on the moneyline (Cards, D'Backs and Tigers; for me, at least).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

d'backs -114 2.28/2
Yankees -1.5 -105 2.62/2.5

other picks

cardinals -107 0.75/0.7
Braves -160 1.6/1
Indians -1.5 -105 0.84/0.8
blue jays -114 0.57/0.5
tigers -102 2.04/2

totals

mets@Mil ov9 -111 0.78/0.7
cws@Nyy ov10.5 +100 0.75/0.75
Yankees over 6 +105 0.8/0.84
balt@Bost un8.5 -115 2.87/2.5

2-teamer (70's pack)
--Yankees ml
--Indians ml
+118
1.69/2

2-teamer (64 pack)
--Braves ml
--d'backs ml
+205
0.48/1

9-team IF bet
1.Yankees -1.5 0.72/0.6
2.Indians -1.5 0.57/0.5
3.o's@Bosox un8.5 0.6/0.5
4.Braves 0.8/0.5
5.d'backs 0.75/0.6
6.tigers 1.1/1
7.jays 1.25/1
8.cards 1.15/1
9.rockies 0.7/0.63
0.72 to win max.6.33

8-team IF bet
1.Yankees over 6 0.5/0.52
2.rockies over 4.5 0.52/0.5
3.tigers over 4 0.5/0.5
4.Bosox under 4.5 0.75/0.6
5.rangers under 4 0.67/0.5
6.Pirates under 4 0.6/0.5
7.royals over 4.5 0.8/0.7
8.jays over 5 0.82/0.62
0.5 to win max.4.44


I can't think of too many reasons why the Yankees should lose today; covering the 1.5 should be no problem, so I'm not sure why the line has stayed put; if the Yankees don't score at least 6 here I'll be stunned. D'Backs, the Fenway game under and the Tigers are also high priorities for me today; everything else is secondary but I think I'm on the right side for the majority, which is what I'll need to finish July on a winning note. Yanks somehow lose this game and I will humbly sacrifice my July to the BBBetting Gods.

As for the start of August, I could be looking at 7 games 'capped at over 60%. Cards (Looper-Armas) look real good as Looper has already thrown two beauties against the Pirates this season while Armas will try to lower that 6.93 era; out of the bullpen Armas has actually already lowered it from an 8.92 just a month ago; I still think that the Cards should certainly take this one; line might be higher than today's, not because Looper is better than Wainwright but because Armas probably won't get much respect from the linesmakers; up to -130 and I don't think I can pass. Reds will be at 60-61% if they win tonight (Arroyo-Lannan) so a line at -120 or better should have some value. Giants (Lincecum-Hendrickson) should be a 60 as well, and I predict a line of close to even money there; I'll like it more if the G-men at least make a game of it tonight. Tigers (Robertson-Braden) will have a monster edge at the plate in this lefty-lefty matchup, despite the fact that the A's do much better against lefties than righties; that fact, along with the Tigers being tops in MLB vs lefties and Robertson's struggles his past 2 starts make the over a decent proposition as well; Tigers will undoubtedly be favorites; I won't touch the side at over -120 unless the Tigers blow the A's away tonight, which is unlikely facing Haren (sure hope they at least win, though). Bosox (Gabbard-Trachsel) may have the highest call on the board; Gabbard looked great through 4 innings at Jacob's before having some kind of brain cramp in the 5th, where he all of the sudden couldn't throw strikes; I may look for a rebound performance from him tomorrow if we see a decent runline as the Bosox should have little trouble scoring against Trachsel. Yankees (Pettitte-Danks) will be just a low 60 as their OPS vs lefties is around 80 points lower than it is vs righties; won't be any value there. If the Royals win tonight then I might be so bold as to post a 60 for them tomorrow (Bannister-Bonser); Bannister has been solid all season and exceptional lately; Twins still don't look so hot, despite winning Monday?they did only bag 3 runs in the victory. All the other calls will be in the 50's, and nothing jumps out at me from them except maybe in the SP mismatch between Oliver Perez and Dave Bush?Brewers good work both at home and vs lefties is a concern, but if they have any sort of trouble with Glavine tonight then I'll be very tempted by the Mets tomorrow; Brewers bats have been in a funk for a few weeks now.

For totals, Rodriguez-Carlyle may be a system under at an 8.5; I might rethink that if they put up big numbers tonight as Wandy's road numbers are nowhere near as good as his home numbers and Buddy wasn't so hot last time out. Lincecum-Hendrickson will be a system under even at an 8; mostly due to Lincecum's great work and the Giants bad work at the plate; G-men put up 5 or more tonight and I'll totally pass on the total and just try the Giants. Towers-Hammel would be a system over at a 9.5 as Towers just sucks on the road and Hammel will likely have a short outting allowing the Jays a(nother) crack at the D'Rays brutal bullpen; Jays don't bag at least 5 tonight and I can't touch that over, which will likely be a 10 or 10.5 anyway. Hoping for no more than a 9 in Oakland, which will make that game a system over; Tigers are at +14 (re team totals) and I like them over 5 if we get such a lovely number. Trachsel-Gabbard would be a system over at a 9, but who's kidding who?likely a 10 for that one. Rheinecker-Byrd will be a system over at a 9.5, but my 'cap was for a Texeira-full Rangers?need to see how the Rangers produce tonight without that key bat; total is likely a 10 or 10.5 there too. Weaver-Hernandez will be a system under at an 8 as I'm going to give an under-bonus for Eddings behind home plate; I think that whatever line they open it at will quickly go higher as others realize that Eddings will be doing the game; if the Angels bats remain quiet at Safeco tonight then I'll be loving this one.

Maybe I should start saving my tomorrow's for tomorrow.
Not sure if anyone gives a hoot about tomorrow today.
Gets me a little more focused, at least, so what-they-hey.

I am outta here.
GL

 

[IE]

not bad..... only 21 runners lob so far going to the bottom of 9th:mj16: .....sorry for the bad advice there EXTRAPOLATER, should have kept it shut.......

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

yeah...I thought it was looking over about half-way through; Giants bullpen has been pretty solid for the past month...I need to reassess bullpens, now that it's month-end, and the Giants pen will get a serious increase in rating.

We'll get 'em tomorrow.