TUESDAY MADNESS

[phoenix566]

1-0 yesterday +2.00 units

Overall:

35-21 +37.60

I like the Cubbies in the afternoon game. A little more juice than I like to lay, but I gotta go with the better (and home) team and better pitcher here. Cubs are streaky, Lose 8, Win 8, lose 3, win 3. I think they should at least set up the Mets for the potential sweep with Lieber on the mound today.

Cubs -45 2*

I am considering Randercity's hedge of playing Mets on the run line. The way these teams play a lot of very tight games, I think there is a strong enough chance to hit here. Appier has the potential to keep the Mets in this game. If he's hurting though, don't count on Mets BP for this. I will look more into this before playing the hedge. For the record, I'll just go with the above pick.

I feel another busy day at work so I probably will not be back until early evening with night selections. GLTA this afternoon.

 

[phoenix566]

Early leans... Atl, Mil, Cin (woof, woof), SF, NYY O

 

[phoenix566]

Going with the hedge play:

5* Cubs -58
5* NYM +1.5 -55
(-275 or 290 to win 1000)

Eliminated Milw from early leans (Rigdon ??, Anderson can be solid - don't see value on either side, might as well flip a coin). Back with more later.

GLTA

 

[phoenix566]

For tonight:

2* Atl -54
(Burkett has been pitching pretty solidly and Atlanta has 1st place dead in their sights. A lot of juice to lay, but I like Atlanta's chances to give a repeat performance of last night)

2* WS -05
(The sox are hot and Minny's not. Biddle seems to be getting into the groove lately. Also, a good friend of mine who's opinion I value is playing the sox big tonight)

2* Cle -02
(They let last nights game slip away. Always a danger when playing against the Yanks, however I think they got a solid enough effort from Nagy to capture this one.)

2* Cle/NYY O10- -20
(Part of a hedge with above play. Magic number is 5 for Cleveland to get at least push. Question is can they score at least 5 runs off mini elDuque and pen. I think they can.)

2* Cinn +26
(My DOD - dog of day. I think this is a good position for Cin. They play better ball on the road, got a good starter in Reitsma, a few bats back and a day to rest yesterday. Also, this is a game STL shouldn't lose, so I am going to go against that grain.)

(* I'll caveat this pick with the fact that of all teams I find STL one of the hardest to handicap. Just can't resist Reitsma v. Benes at this price.)

2* SF -05
(I know this is going against Brown, however I can't pass up Estes at home at this price. Take away the pitchers and you have two teams heading in opposite directions.

1* Tor/Bal O9
(Not much to back this one up. Just a gut feeling)

1* Ana E
(I am taking someone's action here. Also a play against Helling, although he has been pitching better lately)

1* Mon +76
(Too much of Joe Q. Public on Florida. Playing Montreal simply to be contrarian here)

That's all for now. GLTA in whatever you play tonight.