Tuesday May 22nd 2007
yesterday: 5-1 +5.35
May: 123-90 +31.77
ml 69-34 +20.26
rl 8-10 -2.09
totals 29-29 +0.45
parlays 17-17 +13.15
system sides now 64-37 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
phil 57% (-131)even
Cin 62 (-159)even
mets 57 (-122)+2
Stl 55 (-123)-1
Ariz 58 (-138)even
Sd 67 (-165)+4 RL 50 (+140)+8
mil 56 (-109)+3
Sf 52 (+111)+4 +1.5 68 (-150)+8
laa 57 (-120)+2
Nyy 67 (-165)+4 RL 52 (+119)+6
tor 54 (+100)+4
Tb 60 (-115)+6
min 62 (-176)-2
clev 60 (-158)-2
Cws 60 (-138)+2
system totals
cubs@Sd un6.5 69% (+105)+20
I needed that, yesterday; it's a lot more enjoyable when you win; 4-0 on the moneyline, for me; miracle parlay on the Reds an Pistons; phew! Thank-you, Pistons!
System sides went a perfect 8-0 yesterday, bringing May's mark to 176-107 (62.2% winners). Bagged another 70, yesterday, but it was a barn-burner (Reds?thank-you!). 70+ now 18-2 for May (90% winners). Best I've got today is the two 67's.
Today's board looked promising to me, on first glance. After 'capping the games, though, I don't know if I want to go to heavy on anything. A couple of 67's on board (67's 5-3 for May after going 6-2 for April) but the -165 price tags leave just a little value. D'Rays are almost a system play; hard to say how Washburn bounces back after a bad outting.
Only 1 system total?tough to play a 6.5; Hill has been human, his past 2, and Padres hitting lefties (.781 OPS) better than they hit righties (.670 OPS); Padres OPS at home only .652; Cubs OPS vs righties .766, but that will go down playing at Petco, not to mention facing this year's early NL Cy Young favorite.
I wish the Chisox were cheaper; smokin' the ball the past couple, and now have Thome back. Same on the Indians; Injuns prefer righties and Perez has really thrown well his past few; Royals also winning some, lately.
Santana vs Loe is a total mismatch (have Santana currently rated a fairly low (for Santana) 85; Loe's current rating is 71?he'll need bullpen help, too. Rangers simply scoring too much, right now, to play on Santana here; Twins need Mauer back in the worst way. Probably a Twins win, here, but the 62% I came up with is on the generous side, if anything. No value on Santana.
Giants might have a shot, if Lincecum can keep up his great work. Still?I hate to go against Oswalt. System call is under the 7 at 62%. Means there's some value at the current +100. 7 is touchy. The umpire should be Jim Wolf, who's been an excellent under-ump this year, but pretty even in years past. Might try a piece.
Gonna look into a few more things and maybe take some chances.
Need the Ducks to beat the Wings to give me a nice series pay-out; I don't know about playing the Ducks at -160, though.
Will post what's played.
GL
yesterday: 5-1 +5.35
May: 123-90 +31.77
ml 69-34 +20.26
rl 8-10 -2.09
totals 29-29 +0.45
parlays 17-17 +13.15
system sides now 64-37 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
phil 57% (-131)even
Cin 62 (-159)even
mets 57 (-122)+2
Stl 55 (-123)-1
Ariz 58 (-138)even
Sd 67 (-165)+4 RL 50 (+140)+8
mil 56 (-109)+3
Sf 52 (+111)+4 +1.5 68 (-150)+8
laa 57 (-120)+2
Nyy 67 (-165)+4 RL 52 (+119)+6
tor 54 (+100)+4
Tb 60 (-115)+6
min 62 (-176)-2
clev 60 (-158)-2
Cws 60 (-138)+2
system totals
cubs@Sd un6.5 69% (+105)+20
I needed that, yesterday; it's a lot more enjoyable when you win; 4-0 on the moneyline, for me; miracle parlay on the Reds an Pistons; phew! Thank-you, Pistons!
System sides went a perfect 8-0 yesterday, bringing May's mark to 176-107 (62.2% winners). Bagged another 70, yesterday, but it was a barn-burner (Reds?thank-you!). 70+ now 18-2 for May (90% winners). Best I've got today is the two 67's.
Today's board looked promising to me, on first glance. After 'capping the games, though, I don't know if I want to go to heavy on anything. A couple of 67's on board (67's 5-3 for May after going 6-2 for April) but the -165 price tags leave just a little value. D'Rays are almost a system play; hard to say how Washburn bounces back after a bad outting.
Only 1 system total?tough to play a 6.5; Hill has been human, his past 2, and Padres hitting lefties (.781 OPS) better than they hit righties (.670 OPS); Padres OPS at home only .652; Cubs OPS vs righties .766, but that will go down playing at Petco, not to mention facing this year's early NL Cy Young favorite.
I wish the Chisox were cheaper; smokin' the ball the past couple, and now have Thome back. Same on the Indians; Injuns prefer righties and Perez has really thrown well his past few; Royals also winning some, lately.
Santana vs Loe is a total mismatch (have Santana currently rated a fairly low (for Santana) 85; Loe's current rating is 71?he'll need bullpen help, too. Rangers simply scoring too much, right now, to play on Santana here; Twins need Mauer back in the worst way. Probably a Twins win, here, but the 62% I came up with is on the generous side, if anything. No value on Santana.
Giants might have a shot, if Lincecum can keep up his great work. Still?I hate to go against Oswalt. System call is under the 7 at 62%. Means there's some value at the current +100. 7 is touchy. The umpire should be Jim Wolf, who's been an excellent under-ump this year, but pretty even in years past. Might try a piece.
Gonna look into a few more things and maybe take some chances.
Need the Ducks to beat the Wings to give me a nice series pay-out; I don't know about playing the Ducks at -160, though.
Will post what's played.
GL
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