Tuesday May 29th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday May 29th 2007

yesterday: 3-4 -0.24
May: 162-132 +28.51
ml 93-57 +18.08
rl 8-11 -2.79
totals 43-36 +5.5
parlays 18-28 +7.72
system picks now 73-42 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Phil 56% (-138)-2
lad 67 (-156)+6 RL 52 (+101)+2
Pitt 52 (-137)-6 sd 48 (+129)+4
Mets 63 (-149)+3
atl 55 (+101)+5
Hou 53 (-130)-4
Cubs 60 (-136)+2
Col 55 (+101)+5
nyy 54 (-158)-8 Tor 46 (+150)+6 Tor +1.5 62 (-110)+9
Bost 72 (-166)+9 RL 58 (+112)+10
det 71 (-166)+8 RL 58 (-109)+5
balt 56 (-121)+1
cws 51 (+116)+4
Laa 59 (-147)-1
Oak 51 (-145)-9 tex 49 (+137)+6

system totals

lad@Wash un8 68% (-110)+15
sf@Mets un8 80 (-110)+27
cws@Min un9 66 (-110)+13 --Gibson a bit of an OVER-ump; kills the play


Crap?things were looking so good yesterday?flippin' Tigers pen cost me almost 5 units, killing a plus day. 3-3 on the moneyline?0-1 on totals.

System sides went a dismal 5-7 yesterday, now 226-153 for May (59.6% winners).
Bagged another 2 70's yesterday; 70%+ now 20-3 for May (86.9% winners).
Also hit a 68 yesterday, but key losses on a 67 and a 66 hurt.
System totals either 1-2 or 0-3 yesterday, depending on the A's final.

Today's board will be a bit of a challenge.
Got a couple of 70's on board, and it's hard to argue with how they've been performing (as mentioned, 20-3 for May).
Dodgers also a system pick, and I'll likely try it at this fairly decent price (anything under -160 sounds fair).
Mets, Cubs, Rockies, and White Sox I need to consider further.
Not many worthwhile totals today, but the Giants-Mets game could very well go under (system surely likes it?with an 80% call on the under!).

Frustrated by my late-month results. The end of April sucked, also.

Be back in a bit to post plays and anything else I find interesting.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Note: I originally had the Tigers at 74%.

Their loss yesterday pissed me off so much that I dropped this number to 71%.

(Tigers bullpen just SUCKS these days)

Still, Tigers OPS vs lefties at a solid .833.
Fossum had been garbage.

D'Rays OPS vs righties at .728.

Clear edge to Tigers sticks, here.

Big edge to the starter.
Hopefully the bullpens don't decide this one (BOTH stink, right now).

Freakin' Tigers shoulda had more off of Jackson, yesteday.

I'll eat my mouse if they lose this one.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Milwaukee

at Milwaukee

Smoltz has been hotter than shit, lately.

I have him rated at a whopping 88 for this start (Peavy current MLB high of 93, for his next start).

This is the highest I've had Smoltz rated all season.
He is flippin' hot!

Good numbers vs Brewers, too.
3-0, 2.45 in 3 starts and some relief appearances.
1-0, 3.75 in 12 IP at Miller Park (2 HR allowed, 16 K).

Brewers OPS vs R .759.

Sheets 7-3, 4.83 vs Braves in 10 starts.

Braves OPS vs R .773.

Sheets had been pretty solid lately, too (have his rating currently at 83).

Under is a possibility, especially with Chipper Jones doubtful.
Jones doubtful makes me like the Braves a bit less, but they've got a great shot, here, with Smoltzy going.

Hard not to try Smoltz at this price.
Brewers in a bit of a funk.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Gl today X

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Padres are tempting.
I'd be interested to hear what others think.

Wells has been solid his past 2 starts.
Gorzelanny lucky to survive his last 2 shaky outtings.

Padres OPS vs L .780
Pirates OPS vs L .680

Quite an edge to Padres sticks.

Pirates a decent edge pitching (81 to 75), and also their solid home-field advantage gives them the 52% I posted.

Without the home-field it would have been Padres 51%.

Padres might be worth a shot.
I've already got a Padres series play, as I'm SURE they'll win tomorrow (Young-Maholm) and I like their chances Thursday (Maddux-Chacon).

A win here and my series call is in the bag.

Don't know if I should risk more on Boomer.

:shrug:

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Geez...I see Ray's on the over at Shea...I haven't played it yet, but I'm a likely under player.

Guess he figures Mets will get to Lincecum, or that the G-Men will start hitting lefties again (OPS vs L currently at .721; finished April at .822...a serious drop-off vs lefties this month).

Anyway...I have other fish to fry, here...

I'm thinking about a Jays play, mostly as a Yankees fade, here.

Jays can smoke lefties (OPS .856)
Yanks probably get to Marcum (Nyy OPS vs R .794).

I can't seem to call these 2 teams right, these days.
Jays I should know pretty well, but I'm on them when they lose and went against them yesterday and they won.

Yanks due to explode sometime soon.
I thought it would be yesterday.

Pretend my numbers are accurate...

Jays win 46% (+145)+5

ROI
------
46 x 1.45 = 66.7
54 x -1.....= -54
--------------------------
..............12.7%

------------------------------------------------------
Jays +1.5 62% (-115)+8
(for such a close call --54% to 46% --I figure there's a good chance for a one-run game)

-115 is 86.9 cents on the dollar

62 x .869 = 53.878
38 x -1.....= -38
-----------------------------
................15.878%

I actually get a better return on investment with the LOWER risk (38% as opposed to 54%).
Surprising.

I think there's some value on this runline.

Maybe I can actually call a Jays game right.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

tempted by the Orioles...smokin' last few.

tough to say what De La Rosa brings this time through.

Orioles .742 OPS vs lefties.

Royals .711 OPS vs righties.

Orioles have some momentum.

De La Rosa has been horrible in both of his last 2 home starts.

Guthrie making a decent starter.

Edge O's pen, too.

I'm sold.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at the Metrodome

at the Metrodome

Danks pitching well...3 straight W's, including one vs the Twins, at the Metrodome.
He's 1-1 vs them this year, throwing pretty good in both games.

Twins OPS vs lefties only .676; still hurting with Mauer out

Bonser with 3 straight W's also.
Nice work on the road his past 2 vs Milwaukee and Texas.
1-1, 4.68 at home.
0-1, 3.63 in 3 vs Chisox, including a no-decision Chisox win on May 8th (at home).

Chisox OPS vs righties only at .720 (was .841 last year).

Chisox sorta coming around, lately, but still too early to tell if they're contenders or pretenders.

Worth a shot, here, at current price, despite the loss in game #1 yesterday (was Santana, after all).

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hendrix-only-knows what Feierabend is going to have, here.
I've got him rated at a 75 for this start...needing more evidence to rank him properly.

Santana has done his best work at home (3-1, 2.33 era), but he's tough to back with so many shaky outtings under his belt.

M's are coming on strong these days, too.

Angels at 59% seems reasonable for this impossible call.

No value at current lines, not the way the M's have come to life.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Also impossible to say what DiNardo will have.
He's pitched well in relief, including a long 4.2 inning stretch in his last, at the Chisox (1 hit, no runs allowed).
Was crap as a starter for Boston, last year.

Rangers OPS vs L .768 (was .813 last year).

Wood has been dogshit this year, but he's 2-0, 2.19 era vs A's in 2 starts and 1 in relief.

A's OPS vs R .703. Lower at home.

Rangers number will be lower here, too.

System call is under the 9.5 at 63%.

No way I could play that.

Over if anything.

Was thinking about the Rangers (again), but I think I'll save my money.

Rangers playing shit ball, right now.

Tough call, this one (DiNardo X-factor).

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

the snake behind me hisses...what my damage could have been

the snake behind me hisses...what my damage could have been

PLAYS

system sides

dodgers -156 4.68/3
Bosox -166 6.64/4
tigers -166 6.64/4

other sides

padres +123 0.81/1
Mets -146 2.19/1.5
braves +103 0.73/0.76
Cubs -133 1.33/1
Blue Jays +1.5 -112 1.12/1
orioles -125 1/0.8
chisox +121 1/1.21

totals

sd@Pitt un9 -135 0.81/0.6
sf@Mets un8 -110 1.32/1.2
o's@Kc un9.5 -108 0.54/0.5
tex@A's ov9.5 +110 0.5/0.55

3-teamer
--dodgers ml
--Bosox ml
--tigers ml
+310
1/3.1


Heavy dose. I need at least 2 of 3 system picks to hit. Hopefully all 3 come in and I bag the parlay, too.
I'll take that with a 4-3 on my other sides, and at least a small plus on totals would be cool.
I'll take a plus any way I can get it?could use one BIG TIME.

Also have the Pistons to duplicate what the Spurs did yesterday; I think with Hughes (most likely) out that Chuancy Billups will get on track, here.

Give me a plus today?I need one bad.

GL

 

[Hucklebuck]

Really enjoy reading your threads. Keep up the good work.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks Hucklebuck,

I enjoy doing the posts, for the most part.
(Lots more fun when you're winning).

I want a plus so bad today I can taste it.

A losing night could be really BIG, with my card...
...c'mon BB Betting Gods...gimme a break!

I've done Wednesday...about time I checked out opening lines.

See you later.

:SIB