tuesday ncaa (florida state/virginia)........

[gman2]

florida state/virginia under 144.5

gonna ride this totals wave out while i can and see if i can hit a 7th. i think this sets up nicely for a game in the 130s. one caveat: this is the first time i think ive ever bet a virginia game under the total. normally theyve made me good money playing em over the number in the right spot. but i think an under play makes sense here.

*virginia coming off an emotional win on saturday vs tech (billet 3 in the final 0:02) and now traveling down south.

*both teams sub-69% from the line (fsu 68%, uva 66%)

*first meeting this season was on pace to be a dead under until it went into overtime 65-65 after regulation

*this series has a history of being high scoring in charlottesville but very low scoring in tallahassee. last five at fsu have seen totals of 132, 125, 135, 135, and 127. nothing really close to the number on this game.

*save for the carolina game, fsu has been very solid defensively at home vs the conference. (just 66 ppg, and that includes gms with wake,tech, and carolina)

can be a dangerous proposition betting virginia under sometimes because their defense isnt the best. but series history and the initial meeting this season tells me that fsu is gonna make virginia play at their pace and grind it out.

 

[Howie's Hot]

nice analysis Gman...gonna look hard at it myself

GL
How

 

[Valuist]

Beware of ACC unders. It seems like the ACC officials call a foul if a player breathes on another player.

 

[the_allt]

Good luck Gman!!

 

[lowell]

think you have the right side.virginia has played well starting with duke game.hopefully they will try to pound it inside to brown.i may even play va getting points.gillian is good coach and they will try and keep pickett from having big night.if they do this, game could be really close.

 

[mansa_musa]

Just to echo, Valuist. The ACC refs love to blow the whistle. I have had 3 totals lose in the last week in games where at least 2 fouls were called per minute w over 10 min left in the game. Way before the usual foul shot parade that happens in most games. I have decided to go over or nothing w ACC games. GL2U tonight though!

 

[Kdogg21]

Good write up gman!! good luck to you, im leaning towards the points w/ Virgina as well, but they seem streaky at times.....

 

[gman2]

i know exactly where you guys are coming from re: the acc refs and their quick whistle. there have been a LOT of games where teams have 13 or 14 teams fouls in a single half. thats why ill never play wake forest or duke or carolina under the total. because those teams are GREAT free throw shooting teams and if they get in the bonus, its almost money in the bank. but even if fsu and virginia get to the line a lot, neither is proficient at the stripe. but as you guys alluded to, i guess if you get enough FT chances, eventually they add up.

lowell: from what ive heard, gillen was gone as soon as the season began. heard hes unlikely to return. he should be getting way more out of that team. theyve got talent, but a lot of internal issues every year. its a shame that jenifer got kicked off the team, because that kid can really play and would have helped them a lot

 

[ego74]

Good luck GMAN, although i think the cavs plus the points is a stronger play

 

[lowell]

heard matt dougherty from unc might go there.but what a huge buyout for university.didn't he just get big extension.about acc refs-i wish they would just let them play.i go the unc and duke message boards a bit and it was so funny-unc fans complain about refs every game.they even thought refs missed alot of fouls in md game.well unc shot 50 free throws to 30 for md.

 

[vinnie]

Do I hear 7 in a row

Bring it on

I'm going to ride the hot hand here

 

[gman2]

lowell:

perhaps carolina fans might consider their defense being the problem- not the refs. acc refs havent been "bad" (in my opinion), its that theyre calling the game too close. no excuse for that in what is a run-n-gun league. its not called that way in the pac-10. that wake/cincy game on sunday was a good example. i know cincy is more physical than most teams, but for wake to be in the bonus with 14:00 to go in the 2h....it gave cincy ZERO shot of winning, because they couldnt play their game and wake had a steady march to the free throw line all afternoon. as far as doherty goes- thats interesting. ive always been a big fan of his. not sure why. just like his style. he deserves another big time job

 

[vinnie]

I will be waiting for number 8 with bells on

 

[Needawin]

Good job Gman! Thanks for the tip. I coattailed you on this one. After only 54 in the first. I thought we had a good chance. Thanks for your insight.

 

[Sun Tzu]

memo to Gman : play unders, avoid Butler

 

[ab's]

nice job!

 

[gman2]

memo to Gman : play unders, avoid Butler

wise words sagacious one.
i dont plan on playing the bulldogs........until the horizon tourney santa clara has been a nemesis of mine as well this season. theyre a shit team but when i fade em, they rain 3s. let me know if you have a lean in the texas tech game tomorrow