tuesday ncaa......

gman2

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xavier (+6.5) over cincinnati

kicking myself for not grabbing the overnight 7 at pinnacle, but dont think it will matter anyway. im a big huggins fan and i still feel like this is his best team since the kenyon martin-led bearcats. but just cannot lay points in the crosstown shootout. with xavier losing some winnable gms lately, this becomes an enormous game for them. aside from beating their in-city rival, a win here can salvage their season and help their rpi. muskateers are really a desperate team. cincy also comes in with something to prove, as they very rarely have lost two straight under huggins. but just cannot go against xavier at home. they have been a great home team over the years (48-5 at cintas) and theyre not gonna let cincy come in there and piss on em.

some additional reading on this game:
http://www.enquirer.com/today/sports.html
http://covers.com/includes/articles.aspx?theArt=18428&tid=29&t=2

this particular article is interesting, especially the "can XU thrive again as the underdog" paragraph:
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/02/03/spt_spthoop1cstory.html

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adding: illinois (-3) over indiana

this line makes no sense. indiana hasnt lost at home in the conference and has a better big 10 record than illinois. ilini havent won a true road game since beating temple in late november. playing the illini simply based on the stupidity of the line. and since ive inexplicably hit 8 of my last 9 chalk plays, im sure this will find a way to win somehow. as an aside, i think illinois is the better team anyway. but the wacked out line convinced me to play em.
 
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ezpickin

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Like your pick...cincy is a very popular pick on all the boards today...too much emphasis on them "bouncing back" from charlotte loss...I think if you are patient you may still get the 7...gl
 

Valuist

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I'm not sure what I'm going to do on this one. I think BOTH teams are overrated. Cincinnati is a bully; they destroy overmatched teams but if they get punched in the face they can't take it. I'd be tempted to take XU but I don't like the fact they are coming off a loss to a regional and conference foe (Dayton). If Cincy wins big, I think they will be a good go-against next week. If XU loses big, I think they stay as a go-against the rest of the season.
 

loophole

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like the fact that cincy's best perimeter defender is probably not at full speed.
 

Irish

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I'm on the other way. Richmond ran XU and it hurt them in their shooting. I think Cincy can do the same. Xaiver is tough as nails at home.
GL
Irish
 

Lebowski

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Xavier is 4-14 against the number and only 2-7 (ats) at home. Cincy has the revenge factor with last years home loss to Xavier.

too tough imo

gl
 

gman2

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valuist:

interesting perspective, and youre right- cincy is a typical bully. when they outclass you, the beat the shit out of you and bury you. but if you punch em back in the mouth, theyre beatable. thats why i think xavier has so much success in this rivalry. muskateers match their physical play. they cant always match the cincy depth, but they dont back down from the bearcats. i just think a win here salvages the xavier season, and this series has seen a lot of upsets.
 

Valuist

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Gman-

I'd like to play Xavier but they really miss West and Chalmers has been a bit of a disappointment. I agree that XU could salvage their season here, that's why I won't bet UC. But I have a hard time backing a team that's been terrible ATS due largely to their reputation of past seasons. The total looks to be in line w/what I expected also. But like I said earlier, a bad effort from Xavier and they will quit on the season.
 

spang

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im a big huggins fan and i still feel like this is his best team since the kenyon martin-led bearcats.

C'mon man... everybody knows that Huggins best team was the '86 Zips !!! ;) ;)
 

Kdogg21

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sorry gman but im on opposite ends tonight...seems like most of the public is on Cincy, but kind of scares me, but im with the Hooisers as well tonight. The Illini have a tough time playing at Indiana all the time, and their defense on the road hasn't played the greatest as of late. I dont know if its just the team is so young or they get themselves in a hole early and can't dig themselves out. Good luck to you tonight bud
 

bearcat

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Cincinnati

Cincinnati

Gman-

I'm new to posting, but have followed you and a number of the other cappers on this site for several years and always value your input.

Unfortunately, I must disagree with you on this game. I know this is a big rivalry, but Xavier is just not that good this year! They were blown out by GW and lost to a Dayton squad that UC embarassed. Xavier is playing their 2nd consecutive rivalry game and I just don't think they have it in them. I would be very surprised if the Bearcats win by less than 10 tonight. GL.
 

gman2

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bearcat:

nothing wrong with seeing it the other way. i dont, however, see a blowout. cincy could very well win by 10-12. but i dont think this game has any chance to get out of hand. enjoy the gm.

lets eat:

gave back some of my football profits in ncaa hoops in early/mid-january. absolutely hate nba, yet am doing well in it. love college hoops, yet donated some money a few weeks in january. love playing dogs, but cant get any consistency with em. hate playing chalks, but absolutely cant miss on those lately. go figure, lol. :confused:

enjoy the games boys
 

ezpickin

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congrats...the line did bump back up to 7 as predicted...who cares? Didnt need it! Keep it going...
 

gman2

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adding this one:

florida 2h (-3)

kentucky is not a 2h team. all their road games follow the same script. get out to a big lead in the 1h, have a smaller lead at halftime and then fade in the final 5:00. i dont think florida will ever be out of this one, even if kentucky pushes the lead back out toward 10
 

gecko

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Great call on Xavier ML! :)

Gotta admit, the Musketeers had that deer in the headlights look in the 2H when Cincy went on their big run, making all those turnovers. But they showed alot pulling thru with the "W" at home.
 
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