Washington Nationals -143
Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (+105)
Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Giants Under 8 (-120)
New York Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Under 9 (-115)
Boston Red Sox -1? (-120)
Houston Astros -1? (-150)
Baltimore Orioles/Los Angeles Angels Under 9 (+105)
Texas Rangers/New York Mets Over 9 (-125)
Colorado Rockies/Cleveland Indians Under 8 (-110)
1 unit bet pays 256
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
Detroit Pittsburgh 7:05 Boyd (Kuhl - Both these mediocre starters been decent of late, Boyd even avg 3.16 runs allowed his last 6 road starts...but just when ya decide to trust guys like this to keep their low ERA despite high WHIP, etc, they then....so taking the over, but not surprised if go under...like Pit (at home and team and fans energized, trust Kuhl more than Boyd and Det bullpen) but not this price.
Miami Washington 7:05 Worley (Cole - when these pitchers faced each other Aug 2, I wrote this: "Worley just can't be trusted to be anything decent, esp vs bats like WA have, but Marlins bats pretty decent of late too, bullpens still not sparkling, Cole has not been good in the Majors or the Minors, and so taking the over and Miami dog"...well, Worley shut down WA for the 7 innings he was in there! But had only 3 SO and an unsustainable number of ground outs. I sure don't see that happening again, these WA bats now seen his limited self... Cole was pretty rotten, but I expect him to improve more than Worley regresses, but he helps us to a nice line to bet - so taking WA and over. That WA bullpen has improved with new pieces.
Yankees Toronto 7:07 Sabathia (Happ - CC had an excellent start here June, but I trust Happ and his consistency of late more (2 ER or less in 7 of Happ's last 10 starts, 3 ER or less in 9 of 10!), plus, Toronto are 7-1 in Happ?s last 8 starts against Yanks, and Yanks are 3-10 in the last 13 trips to Toronto. Toronto having a real disappointing season, but beating rival Yanks (who need wins to get postseason play) will make them feel much better, and thier bats are better of late...So I'm taking Toro...thinking under too, considering good chance CC be good here again..
Colorado Cleveland 7:10 Marquez (Kluber - Marquez off 5 QS in a row, almost nobody better in that same stretch except, yes, Kluber (and batters are just .187 against Klubot at home this season). With Cleve bats cooled off a bit and never seen Marquez, and CO's bats usually swoon when hitting the road this late in season, I am on that under for sure...the CO dog does look tasty!
Texas N.Y. Mets 7:10 Cashner (Flexen - Cashner still keeping that wide gap between his ERA and xFIP, getting lots of double plays and such to limit damage. He's off a season with a 5 ERA, but wanted to sign only a 1 year deal with Rangers as he gambled that he could pitch like he's been pitching, then get a big bump in pay or traded to real contender. Now vs Mets, good chance he can keep it going today. Flexen has some skills and upside, he's at home finally, we might see some of that tonight, but he's one of those many minor leaguers who's been rushed into the majors. And this is the Mets after all, so I am on Texas and, considering both these rotten bullpens, the over
San Diego Cinci 7:10 Perdomo (Romano - SD is 1-7 in Perdomo road starts, and he is not even getting it done at home lately either...Romano is a work in progress, but is mixing up his pitches better. I can see why Cinci a fave here, but I don't like the price...maybe Cinci -1.5 if I think those bats will stay hot
Boston Tampa Bay 7:10 Sale (Pruitt - Sale off his worst start in this Cy Young campaign of his, I sure don't see him having two of those in a row...Boston is 10-3 in his last 13 starts...Pruitt has some good stuff, but not gotten it together yet, and not a good idea to be trying for that vs this Boston team on a roll. Even if he brings his A game (has a tidy 3.91 FIP), the bullpen will lose the game (but considering TB has gotten runs vs Sale last few times they've seen him, I can see that TB 1st 5 inning +0.5 dog bet)....I am on Bos -1.5 yet again...and that under, TB 2nd only to Brewers for most unders since All Star break, 15-6-2, but Bosox have .646 OPS in 4 games this stadium this season, even better last season - all those RH bats sure feel at home here.
Phila Atlanta 7:35 Eflin (Teheran - Elfin been real poor his last 3 starts, back in April - he had mild elbow inflammation (MRI showed no ligament damage), he sported a 4.72 ERA in six starts in AAA, going 0-4 with 40:12 K:BB in 45, and last start for Iron Pigs not good, and Phillies not won any of his last 7 - tho that vs much stronger teams than ATL - he has pitched real well vs ATL this and last season (at home, 0.56 WHIP over 16 innings)..... Teheran had one of his rare awful outings other week at Phila, tho he's had some command problems and too many HR of late anyway (now with 27 HR, tied for most allowed in MLB), But ATL is on that strong 'series sweep revenge scenario for the home team' angle today and Teheran actually been decent in 4 of his last 5 outings at home....so I'm thinking ATL and Teheran will scratch out a close win here, but Phillies take to the field after a day to digest the death of their beloved Butch, as Darren Daulton's death from brain cancer announced Sunday night, team might very well play hard to win one for Dutch, having a day to work off the heavy heart..Dutch was active in Phillies sports scene after retirement and I'm sure many current Phillies players have watched the video tributes and outpouring of emotion to Dutch....so now I'm thinking Phillies!
Milwaukee Minne 8:10 Garza (Mejia - Mejia having solid rookie year, keeps his team in games, and is 4-0 as a stopper after a team loss. He's not going very deep of late (command issues, and Milk is good vs lefties), but Garza not going deep himself either (has 4.77 xFIP). Garza good in 1st start off DL for calf strain, showed no signs of it bothering him...Twins are at home, need wins to get on track worst than Milk, I'm liking under first 5 innings and Twins pull out a close victory mebbe.
Houston White Sox 8:10 Keuchel (Holland - Keuchel's had 3 mediocre starts since missing all that time with his injured neck. He still not his old self, his sinker especially needs to shake the rust out, and CWS a good team to work that out on!...Holland off a real good start vs Toronto, but I'm not going let that rare event fool me into thinking something foolish. Actually, Holland has the lowest ERA among the CWS starters - 5.27!..not surprising, CWS have allowed 6 runs per games over their last 27... I'm on Houston -1.5...and considering Houston bullpen of late, and Keuchel rust, I'm on the over too...Springer might be back
St. Louis Kansas City 8:15 Wacha (Vargas - Wacha under is 5-0-1 last 6 and Vargas under is 3-0 last 3. With this HP ump and his generous strike zone (a whopping 1.08 K boost!) definitely under the 5 innings, as these bullpens...and it usually goes under when these teams meet, tho all those RH STL bats going up against Vargas gives me some pause...you'd think KC at home needing wins with pull out a bullpen win, but I just dunno...
Dodgers Arizona 9:40 Maeda (Godley - see special Dodgers statement posted below....
Seattle Oakland 10:05 Miranda (Graveman - Mariners have won 14 of last 17 trips to O.coC, and ya think big bat Alonso, just traded to Seattle, will have a good night vs former team...Miranda "6.51 ERA and nine HRs in his last five outings" (tho his HR problem no where as bad a deal here vs this team) and Graveman with some real DH rust, but he is sharper at home...so thinking over and Mariners.
Baltimore Angels 10:07 Hellickson (Bridwell - Hellickson I think keep it strong again with his new team as this is the Angels, who are #24 in runs scored...Bridwell, his under is 5-1-1 last 7 starts....So liking that under
Cubs San Francisco 10:15 Quintana (Blach - against these bats Quintana should bounce back and have a nice start here as bad start involved 2 rain delays, and he always takes advantage of weaker teams, Blach been good of late, lots of unders, so thinking Cubs and under.
Since June 7th, the Dodgers are 44-7 (3 losses in June, 3 losses in July, 1 in August). A bettor risking $100 on them each game would have won $1,652.
They've closed at -200 or higher 26 times in this span.
Recent form: WWWWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWLWWWW -- LAD have failed to cover the -1.5 line in 4 of last 9 wins, but only in 1 of last 5 (i.e. - the 6 games this current road trip LAD covered the -1.5 runs in 5 of 6. At ATL and Mets).
81.25% of Dodgers road victories have covered the 1.5 runs (26 of 32) this season.
72.3% of Dodgers home victories have covered the 1.5 runs (34 of 47) this season.
Dodgers are racking up the wins at an insane rate now, they will end this season as one of the top 5 winningest regular season teams ever in over 100 years of MLB history...Bettors for years will say "Remember those 2017 Dodgers winning nearly every game last few months of the season, boy, don't you wish there was a cash machine like that today"!
You have to be some kind of crazy to think you can pick the few days this or last few months they lose - just look at this recent form: WWWWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWLWWWW -- you smart enough to go against that and think you can pick the exact rare losing day here and there? .. Just bet the winner Dodgers nearly every game and don't spend more than a minute handicapping it.
I glanced at the matchup today for a 60 seconds and I see LAD are vulnerable (going against an excellent starting pitcher and a divisional opponent who'd love to make a statement and is capable of it). So I'm laying off my daily LAD bet (which, in the long run, is a stupid thing to do) - but I'm sure not crazy enough to take AZ. Besides, in most of Dodgers last 7 losses they were over -200 faves. When they lose, it's typically not the -130 games like today's, where everyone sees there's a chance they might actually lose.
but do like the under here, with these pitchers
-----------
edit - I don't list pitchers 'cause I'm lazy, but my book does automatically for totals, so the TX bet is dropped (but I do like the over with Griffin anyway) and parlay now pays only 127 if it wins....
also in the news, Murphy out for Nats, and Ozuna out for Marlins.
Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (+105)
Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Giants Under 8 (-120)
New York Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Under 9 (-115)
Boston Red Sox -1? (-120)
Houston Astros -1? (-150)
Baltimore Orioles/Los Angeles Angels Under 9 (+105)
Texas Rangers/New York Mets Over 9 (-125)
Colorado Rockies/Cleveland Indians Under 8 (-110)
1 unit bet pays 256
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
Detroit Pittsburgh 7:05 Boyd (Kuhl - Both these mediocre starters been decent of late, Boyd even avg 3.16 runs allowed his last 6 road starts...but just when ya decide to trust guys like this to keep their low ERA despite high WHIP, etc, they then....so taking the over, but not surprised if go under...like Pit (at home and team and fans energized, trust Kuhl more than Boyd and Det bullpen) but not this price.
Miami Washington 7:05 Worley (Cole - when these pitchers faced each other Aug 2, I wrote this: "Worley just can't be trusted to be anything decent, esp vs bats like WA have, but Marlins bats pretty decent of late too, bullpens still not sparkling, Cole has not been good in the Majors or the Minors, and so taking the over and Miami dog"...well, Worley shut down WA for the 7 innings he was in there! But had only 3 SO and an unsustainable number of ground outs. I sure don't see that happening again, these WA bats now seen his limited self... Cole was pretty rotten, but I expect him to improve more than Worley regresses, but he helps us to a nice line to bet - so taking WA and over. That WA bullpen has improved with new pieces.
Yankees Toronto 7:07 Sabathia (Happ - CC had an excellent start here June, but I trust Happ and his consistency of late more (2 ER or less in 7 of Happ's last 10 starts, 3 ER or less in 9 of 10!), plus, Toronto are 7-1 in Happ?s last 8 starts against Yanks, and Yanks are 3-10 in the last 13 trips to Toronto. Toronto having a real disappointing season, but beating rival Yanks (who need wins to get postseason play) will make them feel much better, and thier bats are better of late...So I'm taking Toro...thinking under too, considering good chance CC be good here again..
Colorado Cleveland 7:10 Marquez (Kluber - Marquez off 5 QS in a row, almost nobody better in that same stretch except, yes, Kluber (and batters are just .187 against Klubot at home this season). With Cleve bats cooled off a bit and never seen Marquez, and CO's bats usually swoon when hitting the road this late in season, I am on that under for sure...the CO dog does look tasty!
Texas N.Y. Mets 7:10 Cashner (Flexen - Cashner still keeping that wide gap between his ERA and xFIP, getting lots of double plays and such to limit damage. He's off a season with a 5 ERA, but wanted to sign only a 1 year deal with Rangers as he gambled that he could pitch like he's been pitching, then get a big bump in pay or traded to real contender. Now vs Mets, good chance he can keep it going today. Flexen has some skills and upside, he's at home finally, we might see some of that tonight, but he's one of those many minor leaguers who's been rushed into the majors. And this is the Mets after all, so I am on Texas and, considering both these rotten bullpens, the over
San Diego Cinci 7:10 Perdomo (Romano - SD is 1-7 in Perdomo road starts, and he is not even getting it done at home lately either...Romano is a work in progress, but is mixing up his pitches better. I can see why Cinci a fave here, but I don't like the price...maybe Cinci -1.5 if I think those bats will stay hot
Boston Tampa Bay 7:10 Sale (Pruitt - Sale off his worst start in this Cy Young campaign of his, I sure don't see him having two of those in a row...Boston is 10-3 in his last 13 starts...Pruitt has some good stuff, but not gotten it together yet, and not a good idea to be trying for that vs this Boston team on a roll. Even if he brings his A game (has a tidy 3.91 FIP), the bullpen will lose the game (but considering TB has gotten runs vs Sale last few times they've seen him, I can see that TB 1st 5 inning +0.5 dog bet)....I am on Bos -1.5 yet again...and that under, TB 2nd only to Brewers for most unders since All Star break, 15-6-2, but Bosox have .646 OPS in 4 games this stadium this season, even better last season - all those RH bats sure feel at home here.
Phila Atlanta 7:35 Eflin (Teheran - Elfin been real poor his last 3 starts, back in April - he had mild elbow inflammation (MRI showed no ligament damage), he sported a 4.72 ERA in six starts in AAA, going 0-4 with 40:12 K:BB in 45, and last start for Iron Pigs not good, and Phillies not won any of his last 7 - tho that vs much stronger teams than ATL - he has pitched real well vs ATL this and last season (at home, 0.56 WHIP over 16 innings)..... Teheran had one of his rare awful outings other week at Phila, tho he's had some command problems and too many HR of late anyway (now with 27 HR, tied for most allowed in MLB), But ATL is on that strong 'series sweep revenge scenario for the home team' angle today and Teheran actually been decent in 4 of his last 5 outings at home....so I'm thinking ATL and Teheran will scratch out a close win here, but Phillies take to the field after a day to digest the death of their beloved Butch, as Darren Daulton's death from brain cancer announced Sunday night, team might very well play hard to win one for Dutch, having a day to work off the heavy heart..Dutch was active in Phillies sports scene after retirement and I'm sure many current Phillies players have watched the video tributes and outpouring of emotion to Dutch....so now I'm thinking Phillies!
Milwaukee Minne 8:10 Garza (Mejia - Mejia having solid rookie year, keeps his team in games, and is 4-0 as a stopper after a team loss. He's not going very deep of late (command issues, and Milk is good vs lefties), but Garza not going deep himself either (has 4.77 xFIP). Garza good in 1st start off DL for calf strain, showed no signs of it bothering him...Twins are at home, need wins to get on track worst than Milk, I'm liking under first 5 innings and Twins pull out a close victory mebbe.
Houston White Sox 8:10 Keuchel (Holland - Keuchel's had 3 mediocre starts since missing all that time with his injured neck. He still not his old self, his sinker especially needs to shake the rust out, and CWS a good team to work that out on!...Holland off a real good start vs Toronto, but I'm not going let that rare event fool me into thinking something foolish. Actually, Holland has the lowest ERA among the CWS starters - 5.27!..not surprising, CWS have allowed 6 runs per games over their last 27... I'm on Houston -1.5...and considering Houston bullpen of late, and Keuchel rust, I'm on the over too...Springer might be back
St. Louis Kansas City 8:15 Wacha (Vargas - Wacha under is 5-0-1 last 6 and Vargas under is 3-0 last 3. With this HP ump and his generous strike zone (a whopping 1.08 K boost!) definitely under the 5 innings, as these bullpens...and it usually goes under when these teams meet, tho all those RH STL bats going up against Vargas gives me some pause...you'd think KC at home needing wins with pull out a bullpen win, but I just dunno...
Dodgers Arizona 9:40 Maeda (Godley - see special Dodgers statement posted below....
Seattle Oakland 10:05 Miranda (Graveman - Mariners have won 14 of last 17 trips to O.coC, and ya think big bat Alonso, just traded to Seattle, will have a good night vs former team...Miranda "6.51 ERA and nine HRs in his last five outings" (tho his HR problem no where as bad a deal here vs this team) and Graveman with some real DH rust, but he is sharper at home...so thinking over and Mariners.
Baltimore Angels 10:07 Hellickson (Bridwell - Hellickson I think keep it strong again with his new team as this is the Angels, who are #24 in runs scored...Bridwell, his under is 5-1-1 last 7 starts....So liking that under
Cubs San Francisco 10:15 Quintana (Blach - against these bats Quintana should bounce back and have a nice start here as bad start involved 2 rain delays, and he always takes advantage of weaker teams, Blach been good of late, lots of unders, so thinking Cubs and under.
Since June 7th, the Dodgers are 44-7 (3 losses in June, 3 losses in July, 1 in August). A bettor risking $100 on them each game would have won $1,652.
They've closed at -200 or higher 26 times in this span.
Recent form: WWWWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWLWWWW -- LAD have failed to cover the -1.5 line in 4 of last 9 wins, but only in 1 of last 5 (i.e. - the 6 games this current road trip LAD covered the -1.5 runs in 5 of 6. At ATL and Mets).
81.25% of Dodgers road victories have covered the 1.5 runs (26 of 32) this season.
72.3% of Dodgers home victories have covered the 1.5 runs (34 of 47) this season.
Dodgers are racking up the wins at an insane rate now, they will end this season as one of the top 5 winningest regular season teams ever in over 100 years of MLB history...Bettors for years will say "Remember those 2017 Dodgers winning nearly every game last few months of the season, boy, don't you wish there was a cash machine like that today"!
You have to be some kind of crazy to think you can pick the few days this or last few months they lose - just look at this recent form: WWWWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWLWWWW -- you smart enough to go against that and think you can pick the exact rare losing day here and there? .. Just bet the winner Dodgers nearly every game and don't spend more than a minute handicapping it.
I glanced at the matchup today for a 60 seconds and I see LAD are vulnerable (going against an excellent starting pitcher and a divisional opponent who'd love to make a statement and is capable of it). So I'm laying off my daily LAD bet (which, in the long run, is a stupid thing to do) - but I'm sure not crazy enough to take AZ. Besides, in most of Dodgers last 7 losses they were over -200 faves. When they lose, it's typically not the -130 games like today's, where everyone sees there's a chance they might actually lose.
but do like the under here, with these pitchers
-----------
edit - I don't list pitchers 'cause I'm lazy, but my book does automatically for totals, so the TX bet is dropped (but I do like the over with Griffin anyway) and parlay now pays only 127 if it wins....
also in the news, Murphy out for Nats, and Ozuna out for Marlins.
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