08:15 PM [904] STL CARDINALS -1.5 +100 ( J NIESE -L / J GARCIA -L )
09:40 PM [905] TOTAL o10-115 (ATL BRAVES vrs ARI DBACKS) ( R WHALEN/BRADLEY)
07:05 PM [912] TOR BLUE JAYS -142 ( T SKAGGS -L / R DICKEY -R )
07:10 PM [913] TOTAL o7.5 -110 (BOS RED SOX vrs TB RAYS) ( C BUCHHOLZ/ARCHER)
08:10 PM [915] TOTAL o9.5 -110 (DET TIGERS vrs MIN TWINS) ( A SANCHEZ/ K GIBSON)
07:05 PM [922] TOTAL u8-110 (HOU ASTROS vrs PIT PIRATES) ( J MUSGROVE/ I NOVA)
07:10 PM [926] CIN REDS +104 ( D HOLLAND -L / D STRAILY -R )
08:10 PM [930] CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 +110 ( J THOMPSON -R / C RODON -L )
1 unit bet pays 188 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-140, -31.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
In his last start, Lopez was electric in an 8-2 victory over the Braves on Thursday night at Turner Field. It started with Lopez's fastball, which was clocked as high as 98 mph. He ended up with 11 strikeouts in seven innings....Lopez looked absolutely dominant at times on Thursday. Needing 101 pitches -- 73 strikes -- the righty was ahead in the count in most situations and kept the Braves swinging at shadows for most of the seven innings he threw. Lopez has an impressive Minor League pedigree and will likely be a popular pickup off the waiver wire this week.
I wanted to await some confirmation before stepping in here this morning, and with Kevin Pillar being activated and projected back into the starting lineup after going 6-7 in two rehab starts, I can go against the early markets and put #912 Toronto (7:05 Eastern) into play, the Pinny opener of -160 now down to as low as -135 (-140 is the value point).
Pillar?s return is not just a major defensive boost, but it moves the resurgent Melvin Upton?s bat over to a corner OF spot, after he produced three HRs and drove in six runs over the last five games. The Blue Jays don?t just bring the better offense and better defense, but also so much more energy ? the Angels have gone almost a full month without winning a road game (0-10, at -39 runs, since winning in Kansas City on July 26), and in a 3-14 overall slide they have been held to two runs or less eight times.
Tyler Skaggs exploded on to the scene by not allowing a run in his first two starts after being called up, but that adrenaline has worn off and the scouting reports are now out there ? it has been an 0-2/9.88 across his last three outings in which he has allowed 30 base-runners in only 13.2 frames, including three home runs. While Skaggs does have some upside his MLB career has now topped 200 innings, at a 9-13/4.78 performance level, and the combination of that, his current form, and the lethargic team behind him does not warrant the kind of market support the Angels received this morning.
Chris Archer - 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. His velocity i still comfortably over 95 mph, and it's helping with his results, though don't get too excited - this was the Padres after all and the Rays are about to head into a gauntlet against AL Beast teams. If you can still trade, I'd be selling Archer ASAP.
Yordano Ventura - 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. And Ventura keeps rolling despite my giant warnings signs. Nothing like getting a .250 BABIP when you allow 5.9% soft contact in a start...Seriously guys, this is a bad bet to make.
Under is 16-6 in BOS last 22 road games.
Holland will be coming off the disabled list and making his first start since June 20. He made three starts on rehab assignment, allowing five runs in 10 innings. He is 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA in Interleague Play.
Dan Straily -Since the break, he is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA in seven starts that have all been won by Cincinnati.
Ivan Nova and Dan Straily have both pitched pretty well of late, but home runs keep both from consistently excelling. Well, that's not entirely true. Straily has a 2.61 ERA in the past month despite a 1.7 HR/9, but Nova has a 4.55 ERA in that same span, likely due to his 1.6 HR/9. The Astros' offense has been better in the second half, but they still strike out a good bit, and Nova is at home, so I could see giving him a shot...
...but Straily gets the Rangers and Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a good spot for a home run issue.
Jon Gray - 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. This was against the Nationals in Coors, which equals a bench spot. Next up are the Brewers, so feel free to ride him once again. By the way, is the #CoorsLivesMatter movement donezo now? Since the height of it, Gray has allowed 4 ER in each of his last three starts and I'm sure people are jumping ship completely instead of understanding my point of holding him, but starting him sporadically. Only one of those starts (@PHIL) was one I'd actually throw him out there for, and there's still value to be had y'all.
The stupid thing about Coors Field is... well, everything if you're a pitcher. Jon Gray has some decent home starts this year, but by and large it has been problematic (5.11 ERA). Thankfully, he's back on the road Tuesday, and I'd be willing to take a shot on him at Milwaukee. His three best game scores have all come on the road (78, 72, and 70). The Brewers have the highest strikeout rate and ninth-worst OPS against righties this year.
In the Sights, NFL?
Let?s go to the NFL and take a lead for Friday, with #258 Tampa Bay/Cleveland Over (8:00 Eastern), a setting in which each offense is under-valued. They are pricing the game tied as the second lowest Total on this week?s board, and that does not compute. So time to go to market now, since there are a few 41?s that can be found for a good shopper, and value exists up to 43.
The various components for the Buccaneers were part of why an Over ticket was put ?In the Sights?? against Jacksonville on Saturday, and even despite an ugly first quarter from Jameis Winston the offense rolled to 28 first downs, with a pair of missed FGs by Roberto Aguayo preventing more production. In the first game in front of the home fans with Dirk Koetter as HC look for some early offensive aggressiveness, and plenty of success, against a Cleveland defensive front that may be the NFL?s worst, and I don?t mind Mike Glennon or Ryan Griffin for the latter stages.
I also expect to see a lot of aggressiveness from the Cleveland offense, which attacked well early against Atlanta last week, Robert Griffin capping a pair of drives with TD passes. But that was without Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman on the field, and for the first time in camp the Browns are practicing with all hands on deck. In analyzing the Cleveland 2016 prospects here last week that upside was noted, and how about this from two-time Pro Bowl CB Joe Haden, after going up against Gordon, Coleman and Terrell Pryor in practice ? ?That?s a really, really solid receiving corps. You know, each one of them running under 4.3 can take you vertical. Those are really, really good deep threats. Teams don?t have two players like that, and we have three of them. So just being able to challenge people vertically, not being able to put an extra safety in the box because you need to have two safeties deep to make sure the corners don?t get beat, I think that just stretches out the field for us in ways that we haven?t had before.?
I expect the losing team to put at least 20 points on the board in this one, which sets up solid value at the price point.
In the Sights, Tuesday MLB?
I wanted to await some confirmation before stepping in here this morning, and with Kevin Pillar being activated and projected back into the starting lineup after going 6-7 in two rehab starts, I can go against the early markets and put #912 Toronto (7:05 Eastern) into play, the Pinny opener of -160 now down to as low as -135 (-140 is the value point).
Pillar?s return is not just a major defensive boost, but it moves the resurgent Melvin Upton?s bat over to a corner OF spot, after he produced three HRs and drove in six runs over the last five games. The Blue Jays don?t just bring the better offense and better defense, but also so much more energy ? the Angels have gone almost a full month without winning a road game (0-10, at -39 runs, since winning in Kansas City on July 26), and in a 3-14 overall slide they have been held to two runs or less eight times.
Angels vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -145
This looks like a good spot to back the Toronto Blue Jays as they host the Los Angeles Angels for the opener of a three-game set Tuesday night.
The Angels are a miserable 3-14 in their last 17 overall and they hand the ball to the struggling left-hander Tyler Skaggs (1-2, 5.19 ERA). Skaggs has conceded 15 runs on 25 hits while covering only 13 2/3 innings over his last three turns, and he's allowed opponents a .302 batting average through five starts on the season.
R.A. Dickey (8-13, 4.51) takes the ball for Toronto. Dickey tossed five innings of one-run ball in the Bronx his last time out and I think he'll come up with another solid outing tonight.
The Blue Jays are back home following a 3-3 road trip. They're 21-10 in their last 31 home games following a road trip of seven or more days and 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. I like them to bounce back from Sunday's 3-2 loss at Cleveland.
Tyler Skaggs exploded on to the scene by not allowing a run in his first two starts after being called up, but that adrenaline has worn off and the scouting reports are now out there ? it has been an 0-2/9.88 across his last three outings in which he has allowed 30 base-runners in only 13.2 frames, including three home runs. While Skaggs does have some upside his MLB career has now topped 200 innings, at a 9-13/4.78 performance level, and the combination of that, his current form, and the lethargic team behind him does not warrant the kind of market support the Angels received this morning.
Tyler Skaggs - 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. And now we have to fully jump ship. He threw 82 pitches in those 10 outs and his command just isn't there anymore. It makes me worried even when he does figure it out again, since that floor is pretty dang low - his stuff relies heavily on great command. Yes you can certainly drop Skaggs.
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. San Francisco has great pitching depth and is 5-1-1 under the total on the road. Ace Madison Bumgarner (12-7, 2.25 ERA) goes here and the under is 5-2 when he starts on the road. The Dodgers are 17-8 under the total in NL West division play. Kenta Maeda (12-7, 3.29 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or less in five of the last seven starts. Maeda threw six innings of two-run ball, striking out nine while allowing just three hits and a walk en route to a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. He shut down the Giants in his only other start against them this season (1.29 ERA), plus 5-2 under the total at home. And the Under is 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers.
Madison Bumgarner dominates the NL West which isn't surprising, but it might be a little shocking to realize that he does his best work against the Dodgers. They are the only team in the division that has been consistently solid throughout Bumgarner's career, but that hasn't stopped him from a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 5.0 K:BB ratio in 150 2/3 innings against them.
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. San Francisco has great pitching depth and is 5-1-1 under the total on the road. Ace Madison Bumgarner (12-7, 2.25 ERA) goes here and the under is 5-2 when he starts on the road. The Dodgers are 17-8 under the total in NL West division play. Kenta Maeda (12-7, 3.29 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or less in five of the last seven starts. Maeda threw six innings of two-run ball, striking out nine while allowing just three hits and a walk en route to a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. He shut down the Giants in his only other start against them this season (1.29 ERA), plus 5-2 under the total at home. And the Under is 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers.
L.A. Angels +126 over TORONTO
Tyler Skaggs is now 21 months past his Tommy John surgery. Skaggs has made just five starts this season and his numbers are not pretty (5.19 ERA). However, he does have 27 K?s in 26 innings along with 95 MPH heat with life. He also had a terrific Triple-A rehab stint (39 IP, 53/8 K/BB, 1.60 ERA). He?s getting stronger. Skaggs is a strike thrower with a lot of promise. He does bring risk but not any more than his mound opponent here. Furthermore, the Blue Jays continue to struggle to score runs.
Toronto?s offense is not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .235 over their past 40 games and just .240 over their past 20 games, which is third last in the AL over that span. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .155 batting average (in 103 AB?s) will be in the lineup tonight. That?s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher playing once every five days and taking up a roster spot, Mark Shapiro figured sending Cy Young candidate, Aaron Sanchez to the minors to ride buses for 10 days would be a good idea. Shapiro was an idiot in Cleveland and he?s an even bigger idiot now. Dickey has started 13 games at the Rogers Center this season and Toronto has won two of them. Dickey has lost at home this season to Philadelphia (7-0), San Diego (8-4) the White Sox (10-0) and Tampa Bay twice (6-3 & 7-5) among others. Dickey personally has two wins over his last 14 home starts and while the Blue Jays are always dangerous in their own barn, they almost always lose when Dickey pitches at home. In other words, when R.A. pitches at the Rogers Center, Toronto?s chances of losing are far greater than winning.
CINCINNATI +102 over Texas
Cincinnati?s 18-9 defeat yesterday to the Dodgers sticks out like a sore thumb, which makes them unplayable in the minds of many. Lost in the defeat is the fact that the Reds scored nine times. Cincinnati has scored nine runs or more in three of its last four games and they also have the second best record in the NL since the All-Star break.
Dan Straily has struggled against lefties for years, a weakness that has prevented him from sticking as a viable mid-rotation starter until this season. That issue has not been cleared up during his mini-breakout this year. Straily is still struggling versus lefties but Texas is a heavy right-handed lineup with just two batters (Mitch Moreland and Nomar Mozara) hitting left. Straily?s stats (2.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and skills show life when he faces RH bats, which comes into play here. Regardless, this wager has nothing to do with backing Straily and everything to do with fading Derek Holland. Holland makes James Shields look like Clayton Kershaw.
Derek Holland pitches today ONLY because the Rangers are paying him 7.4M this season. He?s made just 14 starts this year, which turns out to be $528,000 per start. There is no way they are going to pay him that type of money to sit. They would rather lose a game than do that. After a knee sidelined Holland in 2014, a bum shoulder sidelined him last year. Shoulder inflammation did him in this time. When he pitched this year, he was either bad or terrible 90% of the time (via dominant start/disaster start split %). Bad health and skill inconsistency cements the risk in his profile. Holland?s swing and miss rate this year is 6%. His 36%/42% groundball/fly-ball split isn?t likely to play well at this park. Holland now comes off the DL to make his first appearance in over two months. In his last three appearances, Holland was tagged for 18 hits and 13 runs in 13 innings. Four of those 18 hits left the yard. If the Texas Rangers win here, a distinct possibility indeed, so be it. However, you would be hard pressed to find a pitcher in the past decade that is less deserving to be road chalk than Derek Holland.
MIAMI -114 over Kansas City
We are going to wait to pull the trigger here. We absolutely expect this line to move significantly, as the market loads up on the Royals. Therefore, expect it to be close to a pick-em later in the day and that?s is when we will step in. No bets right now but we?ll update it to an official wager later on.
Ahhhh, the Royals. Remember them? Don?t look now but K.C. is just four games out of a Wild Card spot with a lot of baseball still to be played. They are also the hottest team in baseball with nine wins in their past 10 games. Now Andrew Cashner is favored over Yordano Ventura? Ventura has experienced more growth in his skills from April to August than any other starter in MLB. After a horrible April and May due to control issues, Ventura's skills were impactful in June: 7.8 K?s/9, 1.9 BB?s/9, 53% grounders. In July and August, Ventura has stepped it up even more. He threw 68% first-pitch strikes in his past two starts. He has a 3.08/3.47 ERA/xERA over his last six starts with 33 K?s in 38 innings over that span. Ventura is also throwing an average of 97 MPH on the gun. Ventura?s swing and miss rate in his last two starts was elite at 15%. The Royals are extremely popular and now that they?re on fire in late August, they have even more market appeal, especially against Andrew Cashner, a starter with rather ugly numbers. Kansas City is not going unnoticed. Why then, did the odds makers open the Royals up as the dog here? That raises red flags for us and it should for you too.
Andrew Cashner saw his ERA jump from 2.55 in 2014 to 4.34 in 2015, but just as things weren?t as rosy as they seemed in 2014, they weren?t quite as bad as they appeared in 2015. Now he finds himself in August with a 4.92 ERA. Do the underlying metrics offer reason for hope? Cashner?s 2015 strikeout rate uptick has faded, and a subpar swing and miss rate suggests additional shrinkage. Fewer swings and misses on his change-up (2014/2015/2016: 16%/12.2%/4.6%) and reduced usage of his slider, down 11% from 2015, have been key factors. After struggling with the slider early in the year, Cashner has reportedly found a new grip that has paid dividends. Small sample size caveats apply, but Cashner was elite at one point. He throws 94 MPH on the gun and he also has a heavy groundball lean of 54% since joining the Marlins (47% before). Cashner could provide sneaky value down the stretch and this line screams out that Kansas City is very likely the sucker dog play of the day.
Hottest pitcher: Ivan Nova, Pirates (9-6, 4.83 ERA)
Nova's overall numbers certainly aren't impressive, but he is unbeaten in three outings since coming aboard with the Pirates in a trade from the New York Yankees. He is 4-0 with a 4.41 ERA in three August starts, allowing eight runs with no walks and 12 strikeouts over 16 1/3 innings as a member of the Bucs. The Pirates have been victorious in all three of his outings, too. The Astros have been red hot lately, so this will be a huge test. However, while Houston is 25-10 in their past 35 interleague games, they are just 4-9 in their past 13 against right-handed starting pitchers.
Coldest pitcher: Sean Manaea, Athletics (4-8, 4.73 ERA)
The rookie for the Athletics has won just one of his past nine starts, although he has chopped more than a run from his overall ERA since July 5. Still, he is facing a red-hot Indians team which is 7-1 in their past eight road outings against a team with a losing record and 13-3 in their past 16 against American League West foes. The Tribe has built their first-place standing in the American League Central Division on the backs of the dregs of the league, winning 28 of their past 37 against teams with an overall losing record, including a 1-0 pitcher's duel win in Monday's series opener. The A's have lost four straight against the Indians.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (7-0 past six, 13-3 past 16)
Another day, another under for the A's, who continue to struggle scoring runs. They dropped the series opener against Carlos Carrasco and the Indians by a 1-0 count. Carrasco had been struggling allowing the long ball, but that wasn't a problem over eight scoreless innings with four hits and no walks allowed Monday while punching out nine A's. The Oakland lineup consists of a majority of players who came up from Triple-A Nashville. During their 1-8 run the Athletics are averaging just 3.1 runs per game, and if you take out a nine-run outburst in a win Aug. 19, they are averaging 2.4 runs in the eight losses.
Biggest OVER run: Braves (6-0 past six, 10-1 past 11 and 5-0 past five road games)
The offense has been flowing for the Braves lately, and their pitching staff continues to get punched around. That makes for plenty of 'over' results. In their past six games the Atlanta pitching staff is allowing 8.5 runs per game, taking care of the over on their own in four of the six outings. The over is also 20-6 in Arizona's past 26 games at home, 36-14-1 in their past 51 overall and 9-1-1 in Archie Bradley's past 11 home starts. All signs point to another high-scoring game just like Monday's wild series opener which saw Arizona eek out a 9-8 walk-off winner.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Giants
The Dodgers head home to Chavez Ravine looking to turn aside the rival Giants. Hopefully for L.A. they didn't leave all of their offense in Cincinnati, as they thrashed the Reds 19-8 while smashing seven home runs. Runs should be significantly harder to come by with Madison Bumgarner on the bump for San Francisco. The Giants are 5-12 over their past 17 road games, and 2-6 in their past eight outings. They just haven't been very Giant-like lately, including just 2-5 over their past seven outings by Madison Bumgarner. The Dodgers have won 29 of their past 41 at home, and they're 5-2 in Kenta Maeda's past seven starts against a team with a winning overall record. The Giants have lost six of their past seven in L.A., and they're 0-4 in MadBum's past four outings against the Dodgers.
Betcha didn?t know: CC Sabathia has had a ton of success against the Mariners over his career, and the Bronx Bombers generally fare very well when Carsten Charles is on the bump. The Yankees are a perfect 5-0 in Sabathia's past five starts at Safeco Field, and they're 11-2 in his past 13 starts overall against the M's. The Yankees have won eight of their past nine in Seattle, and the Yankees have won nine of their past 13 against the Mariners. New York has won 14 of their past 19 against American League West foes. The Mariners are 3-7 in Taijuan Walker's past 10 outings, including 2-5 in his past seven against teams with an overall winning mark.
In the Sights, NFL?
Let?s go to the NFL and take a lead for Friday, with #258 Tampa Bay/Cleveland Over (8:00 Eastern), a setting in which each offense is under-valued. They are pricing the game tied as the second lowest Total on this week?s board, and that does not compute. So time to go to market now, since there are a few 41?s that can be found for a good shopper, and value exists up to 43.
The various components for the Buccaneers were part of why an Over ticket was put ?In the Sights?? against Jacksonville on Saturday, and even despite an ugly first quarter from Jameis Winston the offense rolled to 28 first downs, with a pair of missed FGs by Roberto Aguayo preventing more production. In the first game in front of the home fans with Dirk Koetter as HC look for some early offensive aggressiveness, and plenty of success, against a Cleveland defensive front that may be the NFL?s worst, and I don?t mind Mike Glennon or Ryan Griffin for the latter stages.
I also expect to see a lot of aggressiveness from the Cleveland offense, which attacked well early against Atlanta last week, Robert Griffin capping a pair of drives with TD passes. But that was without Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman on the field, and for the first time in camp the Browns are practicing with all hands on deck. In analyzing the Cleveland 2016 prospects here last week that upside was noted, and how about this from two-time Pro Bowl CB Joe Haden, after going up against Gordon, Coleman and Terrell Pryor in practice ? ?That?s a really, really solid receiving corps. You know, each one of them running under 4.3 can take you vertical. Those are really, really good deep threats. Teams don?t have two players like that, and we have three of them. So just being able to challenge people vertically, not being able to put an extra safety in the box because you need to have two safeties deep to make sure the corners don?t get beat, I think that just stretches out the field for us in ways that we haven?t had before.?
I expect the losing team to put at least 20 points on the board in this one, which sets up solid value at the price point.
09:40 PM [905] TOTAL o10-115 (ATL BRAVES vrs ARI DBACKS) ( R WHALEN/BRADLEY)
07:05 PM [912] TOR BLUE JAYS -142 ( T SKAGGS -L / R DICKEY -R )
07:10 PM [913] TOTAL o7.5 -110 (BOS RED SOX vrs TB RAYS) ( C BUCHHOLZ/ARCHER)
08:10 PM [915] TOTAL o9.5 -110 (DET TIGERS vrs MIN TWINS) ( A SANCHEZ/ K GIBSON)
07:05 PM [922] TOTAL u8-110 (HOU ASTROS vrs PIT PIRATES) ( J MUSGROVE/ I NOVA)
07:10 PM [926] CIN REDS +104 ( D HOLLAND -L / D STRAILY -R )
08:10 PM [930] CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 +110 ( J THOMPSON -R / C RODON -L )
1 unit bet pays 188 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-140, -31.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
In his last start, Lopez was electric in an 8-2 victory over the Braves on Thursday night at Turner Field. It started with Lopez's fastball, which was clocked as high as 98 mph. He ended up with 11 strikeouts in seven innings....Lopez looked absolutely dominant at times on Thursday. Needing 101 pitches -- 73 strikes -- the righty was ahead in the count in most situations and kept the Braves swinging at shadows for most of the seven innings he threw. Lopez has an impressive Minor League pedigree and will likely be a popular pickup off the waiver wire this week.
I wanted to await some confirmation before stepping in here this morning, and with Kevin Pillar being activated and projected back into the starting lineup after going 6-7 in two rehab starts, I can go against the early markets and put #912 Toronto (7:05 Eastern) into play, the Pinny opener of -160 now down to as low as -135 (-140 is the value point).
Pillar?s return is not just a major defensive boost, but it moves the resurgent Melvin Upton?s bat over to a corner OF spot, after he produced three HRs and drove in six runs over the last five games. The Blue Jays don?t just bring the better offense and better defense, but also so much more energy ? the Angels have gone almost a full month without winning a road game (0-10, at -39 runs, since winning in Kansas City on July 26), and in a 3-14 overall slide they have been held to two runs or less eight times.
Tyler Skaggs exploded on to the scene by not allowing a run in his first two starts after being called up, but that adrenaline has worn off and the scouting reports are now out there ? it has been an 0-2/9.88 across his last three outings in which he has allowed 30 base-runners in only 13.2 frames, including three home runs. While Skaggs does have some upside his MLB career has now topped 200 innings, at a 9-13/4.78 performance level, and the combination of that, his current form, and the lethargic team behind him does not warrant the kind of market support the Angels received this morning.
Chris Archer - 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. His velocity i still comfortably over 95 mph, and it's helping with his results, though don't get too excited - this was the Padres after all and the Rays are about to head into a gauntlet against AL Beast teams. If you can still trade, I'd be selling Archer ASAP.
Yordano Ventura - 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. And Ventura keeps rolling despite my giant warnings signs. Nothing like getting a .250 BABIP when you allow 5.9% soft contact in a start...Seriously guys, this is a bad bet to make.
Under is 16-6 in BOS last 22 road games.
Holland will be coming off the disabled list and making his first start since June 20. He made three starts on rehab assignment, allowing five runs in 10 innings. He is 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA in Interleague Play.
Dan Straily -Since the break, he is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA in seven starts that have all been won by Cincinnati.
Ivan Nova and Dan Straily have both pitched pretty well of late, but home runs keep both from consistently excelling. Well, that's not entirely true. Straily has a 2.61 ERA in the past month despite a 1.7 HR/9, but Nova has a 4.55 ERA in that same span, likely due to his 1.6 HR/9. The Astros' offense has been better in the second half, but they still strike out a good bit, and Nova is at home, so I could see giving him a shot...
...but Straily gets the Rangers and Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a good spot for a home run issue.
Jon Gray - 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. This was against the Nationals in Coors, which equals a bench spot. Next up are the Brewers, so feel free to ride him once again. By the way, is the #CoorsLivesMatter movement donezo now? Since the height of it, Gray has allowed 4 ER in each of his last three starts and I'm sure people are jumping ship completely instead of understanding my point of holding him, but starting him sporadically. Only one of those starts (@PHIL) was one I'd actually throw him out there for, and there's still value to be had y'all.
The stupid thing about Coors Field is... well, everything if you're a pitcher. Jon Gray has some decent home starts this year, but by and large it has been problematic (5.11 ERA). Thankfully, he's back on the road Tuesday, and I'd be willing to take a shot on him at Milwaukee. His three best game scores have all come on the road (78, 72, and 70). The Brewers have the highest strikeout rate and ninth-worst OPS against righties this year.
In the Sights, NFL?
Let?s go to the NFL and take a lead for Friday, with #258 Tampa Bay/Cleveland Over (8:00 Eastern), a setting in which each offense is under-valued. They are pricing the game tied as the second lowest Total on this week?s board, and that does not compute. So time to go to market now, since there are a few 41?s that can be found for a good shopper, and value exists up to 43.
The various components for the Buccaneers were part of why an Over ticket was put ?In the Sights?? against Jacksonville on Saturday, and even despite an ugly first quarter from Jameis Winston the offense rolled to 28 first downs, with a pair of missed FGs by Roberto Aguayo preventing more production. In the first game in front of the home fans with Dirk Koetter as HC look for some early offensive aggressiveness, and plenty of success, against a Cleveland defensive front that may be the NFL?s worst, and I don?t mind Mike Glennon or Ryan Griffin for the latter stages.
I also expect to see a lot of aggressiveness from the Cleveland offense, which attacked well early against Atlanta last week, Robert Griffin capping a pair of drives with TD passes. But that was without Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman on the field, and for the first time in camp the Browns are practicing with all hands on deck. In analyzing the Cleveland 2016 prospects here last week that upside was noted, and how about this from two-time Pro Bowl CB Joe Haden, after going up against Gordon, Coleman and Terrell Pryor in practice ? ?That?s a really, really solid receiving corps. You know, each one of them running under 4.3 can take you vertical. Those are really, really good deep threats. Teams don?t have two players like that, and we have three of them. So just being able to challenge people vertically, not being able to put an extra safety in the box because you need to have two safeties deep to make sure the corners don?t get beat, I think that just stretches out the field for us in ways that we haven?t had before.?
I expect the losing team to put at least 20 points on the board in this one, which sets up solid value at the price point.
In the Sights, Tuesday MLB?
I wanted to await some confirmation before stepping in here this morning, and with Kevin Pillar being activated and projected back into the starting lineup after going 6-7 in two rehab starts, I can go against the early markets and put #912 Toronto (7:05 Eastern) into play, the Pinny opener of -160 now down to as low as -135 (-140 is the value point).
Pillar?s return is not just a major defensive boost, but it moves the resurgent Melvin Upton?s bat over to a corner OF spot, after he produced three HRs and drove in six runs over the last five games. The Blue Jays don?t just bring the better offense and better defense, but also so much more energy ? the Angels have gone almost a full month without winning a road game (0-10, at -39 runs, since winning in Kansas City on July 26), and in a 3-14 overall slide they have been held to two runs or less eight times.
Angels vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -145
This looks like a good spot to back the Toronto Blue Jays as they host the Los Angeles Angels for the opener of a three-game set Tuesday night.
The Angels are a miserable 3-14 in their last 17 overall and they hand the ball to the struggling left-hander Tyler Skaggs (1-2, 5.19 ERA). Skaggs has conceded 15 runs on 25 hits while covering only 13 2/3 innings over his last three turns, and he's allowed opponents a .302 batting average through five starts on the season.
R.A. Dickey (8-13, 4.51) takes the ball for Toronto. Dickey tossed five innings of one-run ball in the Bronx his last time out and I think he'll come up with another solid outing tonight.
The Blue Jays are back home following a 3-3 road trip. They're 21-10 in their last 31 home games following a road trip of seven or more days and 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. I like them to bounce back from Sunday's 3-2 loss at Cleveland.
Tyler Skaggs exploded on to the scene by not allowing a run in his first two starts after being called up, but that adrenaline has worn off and the scouting reports are now out there ? it has been an 0-2/9.88 across his last three outings in which he has allowed 30 base-runners in only 13.2 frames, including three home runs. While Skaggs does have some upside his MLB career has now topped 200 innings, at a 9-13/4.78 performance level, and the combination of that, his current form, and the lethargic team behind him does not warrant the kind of market support the Angels received this morning.
Tyler Skaggs - 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. And now we have to fully jump ship. He threw 82 pitches in those 10 outs and his command just isn't there anymore. It makes me worried even when he does figure it out again, since that floor is pretty dang low - his stuff relies heavily on great command. Yes you can certainly drop Skaggs.
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. San Francisco has great pitching depth and is 5-1-1 under the total on the road. Ace Madison Bumgarner (12-7, 2.25 ERA) goes here and the under is 5-2 when he starts on the road. The Dodgers are 17-8 under the total in NL West division play. Kenta Maeda (12-7, 3.29 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or less in five of the last seven starts. Maeda threw six innings of two-run ball, striking out nine while allowing just three hits and a walk en route to a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. He shut down the Giants in his only other start against them this season (1.29 ERA), plus 5-2 under the total at home. And the Under is 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers.
Madison Bumgarner dominates the NL West which isn't surprising, but it might be a little shocking to realize that he does his best work against the Dodgers. They are the only team in the division that has been consistently solid throughout Bumgarner's career, but that hasn't stopped him from a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 5.0 K:BB ratio in 150 2/3 innings against them.
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. San Francisco has great pitching depth and is 5-1-1 under the total on the road. Ace Madison Bumgarner (12-7, 2.25 ERA) goes here and the under is 5-2 when he starts on the road. The Dodgers are 17-8 under the total in NL West division play. Kenta Maeda (12-7, 3.29 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or less in five of the last seven starts. Maeda threw six innings of two-run ball, striking out nine while allowing just three hits and a walk en route to a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. He shut down the Giants in his only other start against them this season (1.29 ERA), plus 5-2 under the total at home. And the Under is 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers.
L.A. Angels +126 over TORONTO
Tyler Skaggs is now 21 months past his Tommy John surgery. Skaggs has made just five starts this season and his numbers are not pretty (5.19 ERA). However, he does have 27 K?s in 26 innings along with 95 MPH heat with life. He also had a terrific Triple-A rehab stint (39 IP, 53/8 K/BB, 1.60 ERA). He?s getting stronger. Skaggs is a strike thrower with a lot of promise. He does bring risk but not any more than his mound opponent here. Furthermore, the Blue Jays continue to struggle to score runs.
Toronto?s offense is not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .235 over their past 40 games and just .240 over their past 20 games, which is third last in the AL over that span. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .155 batting average (in 103 AB?s) will be in the lineup tonight. That?s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher playing once every five days and taking up a roster spot, Mark Shapiro figured sending Cy Young candidate, Aaron Sanchez to the minors to ride buses for 10 days would be a good idea. Shapiro was an idiot in Cleveland and he?s an even bigger idiot now. Dickey has started 13 games at the Rogers Center this season and Toronto has won two of them. Dickey has lost at home this season to Philadelphia (7-0), San Diego (8-4) the White Sox (10-0) and Tampa Bay twice (6-3 & 7-5) among others. Dickey personally has two wins over his last 14 home starts and while the Blue Jays are always dangerous in their own barn, they almost always lose when Dickey pitches at home. In other words, when R.A. pitches at the Rogers Center, Toronto?s chances of losing are far greater than winning.
CINCINNATI +102 over Texas
Cincinnati?s 18-9 defeat yesterday to the Dodgers sticks out like a sore thumb, which makes them unplayable in the minds of many. Lost in the defeat is the fact that the Reds scored nine times. Cincinnati has scored nine runs or more in three of its last four games and they also have the second best record in the NL since the All-Star break.
Dan Straily has struggled against lefties for years, a weakness that has prevented him from sticking as a viable mid-rotation starter until this season. That issue has not been cleared up during his mini-breakout this year. Straily is still struggling versus lefties but Texas is a heavy right-handed lineup with just two batters (Mitch Moreland and Nomar Mozara) hitting left. Straily?s stats (2.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and skills show life when he faces RH bats, which comes into play here. Regardless, this wager has nothing to do with backing Straily and everything to do with fading Derek Holland. Holland makes James Shields look like Clayton Kershaw.
Derek Holland pitches today ONLY because the Rangers are paying him 7.4M this season. He?s made just 14 starts this year, which turns out to be $528,000 per start. There is no way they are going to pay him that type of money to sit. They would rather lose a game than do that. After a knee sidelined Holland in 2014, a bum shoulder sidelined him last year. Shoulder inflammation did him in this time. When he pitched this year, he was either bad or terrible 90% of the time (via dominant start/disaster start split %). Bad health and skill inconsistency cements the risk in his profile. Holland?s swing and miss rate this year is 6%. His 36%/42% groundball/fly-ball split isn?t likely to play well at this park. Holland now comes off the DL to make his first appearance in over two months. In his last three appearances, Holland was tagged for 18 hits and 13 runs in 13 innings. Four of those 18 hits left the yard. If the Texas Rangers win here, a distinct possibility indeed, so be it. However, you would be hard pressed to find a pitcher in the past decade that is less deserving to be road chalk than Derek Holland.
MIAMI -114 over Kansas City
We are going to wait to pull the trigger here. We absolutely expect this line to move significantly, as the market loads up on the Royals. Therefore, expect it to be close to a pick-em later in the day and that?s is when we will step in. No bets right now but we?ll update it to an official wager later on.
Ahhhh, the Royals. Remember them? Don?t look now but K.C. is just four games out of a Wild Card spot with a lot of baseball still to be played. They are also the hottest team in baseball with nine wins in their past 10 games. Now Andrew Cashner is favored over Yordano Ventura? Ventura has experienced more growth in his skills from April to August than any other starter in MLB. After a horrible April and May due to control issues, Ventura's skills were impactful in June: 7.8 K?s/9, 1.9 BB?s/9, 53% grounders. In July and August, Ventura has stepped it up even more. He threw 68% first-pitch strikes in his past two starts. He has a 3.08/3.47 ERA/xERA over his last six starts with 33 K?s in 38 innings over that span. Ventura is also throwing an average of 97 MPH on the gun. Ventura?s swing and miss rate in his last two starts was elite at 15%. The Royals are extremely popular and now that they?re on fire in late August, they have even more market appeal, especially against Andrew Cashner, a starter with rather ugly numbers. Kansas City is not going unnoticed. Why then, did the odds makers open the Royals up as the dog here? That raises red flags for us and it should for you too.
Andrew Cashner saw his ERA jump from 2.55 in 2014 to 4.34 in 2015, but just as things weren?t as rosy as they seemed in 2014, they weren?t quite as bad as they appeared in 2015. Now he finds himself in August with a 4.92 ERA. Do the underlying metrics offer reason for hope? Cashner?s 2015 strikeout rate uptick has faded, and a subpar swing and miss rate suggests additional shrinkage. Fewer swings and misses on his change-up (2014/2015/2016: 16%/12.2%/4.6%) and reduced usage of his slider, down 11% from 2015, have been key factors. After struggling with the slider early in the year, Cashner has reportedly found a new grip that has paid dividends. Small sample size caveats apply, but Cashner was elite at one point. He throws 94 MPH on the gun and he also has a heavy groundball lean of 54% since joining the Marlins (47% before). Cashner could provide sneaky value down the stretch and this line screams out that Kansas City is very likely the sucker dog play of the day.
Hottest pitcher: Ivan Nova, Pirates (9-6, 4.83 ERA)
Nova's overall numbers certainly aren't impressive, but he is unbeaten in three outings since coming aboard with the Pirates in a trade from the New York Yankees. He is 4-0 with a 4.41 ERA in three August starts, allowing eight runs with no walks and 12 strikeouts over 16 1/3 innings as a member of the Bucs. The Pirates have been victorious in all three of his outings, too. The Astros have been red hot lately, so this will be a huge test. However, while Houston is 25-10 in their past 35 interleague games, they are just 4-9 in their past 13 against right-handed starting pitchers.
Coldest pitcher: Sean Manaea, Athletics (4-8, 4.73 ERA)
The rookie for the Athletics has won just one of his past nine starts, although he has chopped more than a run from his overall ERA since July 5. Still, he is facing a red-hot Indians team which is 7-1 in their past eight road outings against a team with a losing record and 13-3 in their past 16 against American League West foes. The Tribe has built their first-place standing in the American League Central Division on the backs of the dregs of the league, winning 28 of their past 37 against teams with an overall losing record, including a 1-0 pitcher's duel win in Monday's series opener. The A's have lost four straight against the Indians.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (7-0 past six, 13-3 past 16)
Another day, another under for the A's, who continue to struggle scoring runs. They dropped the series opener against Carlos Carrasco and the Indians by a 1-0 count. Carrasco had been struggling allowing the long ball, but that wasn't a problem over eight scoreless innings with four hits and no walks allowed Monday while punching out nine A's. The Oakland lineup consists of a majority of players who came up from Triple-A Nashville. During their 1-8 run the Athletics are averaging just 3.1 runs per game, and if you take out a nine-run outburst in a win Aug. 19, they are averaging 2.4 runs in the eight losses.
Biggest OVER run: Braves (6-0 past six, 10-1 past 11 and 5-0 past five road games)
The offense has been flowing for the Braves lately, and their pitching staff continues to get punched around. That makes for plenty of 'over' results. In their past six games the Atlanta pitching staff is allowing 8.5 runs per game, taking care of the over on their own in four of the six outings. The over is also 20-6 in Arizona's past 26 games at home, 36-14-1 in their past 51 overall and 9-1-1 in Archie Bradley's past 11 home starts. All signs point to another high-scoring game just like Monday's wild series opener which saw Arizona eek out a 9-8 walk-off winner.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Giants
The Dodgers head home to Chavez Ravine looking to turn aside the rival Giants. Hopefully for L.A. they didn't leave all of their offense in Cincinnati, as they thrashed the Reds 19-8 while smashing seven home runs. Runs should be significantly harder to come by with Madison Bumgarner on the bump for San Francisco. The Giants are 5-12 over their past 17 road games, and 2-6 in their past eight outings. They just haven't been very Giant-like lately, including just 2-5 over their past seven outings by Madison Bumgarner. The Dodgers have won 29 of their past 41 at home, and they're 5-2 in Kenta Maeda's past seven starts against a team with a winning overall record. The Giants have lost six of their past seven in L.A., and they're 0-4 in MadBum's past four outings against the Dodgers.
Betcha didn?t know: CC Sabathia has had a ton of success against the Mariners over his career, and the Bronx Bombers generally fare very well when Carsten Charles is on the bump. The Yankees are a perfect 5-0 in Sabathia's past five starts at Safeco Field, and they're 11-2 in his past 13 starts overall against the M's. The Yankees have won eight of their past nine in Seattle, and the Yankees have won nine of their past 13 against the Mariners. New York has won 14 of their past 19 against American League West foes. The Mariners are 3-7 in Taijuan Walker's past 10 outings, including 2-5 in his past seven against teams with an overall winning mark.
In the Sights, NFL?
Let?s go to the NFL and take a lead for Friday, with #258 Tampa Bay/Cleveland Over (8:00 Eastern), a setting in which each offense is under-valued. They are pricing the game tied as the second lowest Total on this week?s board, and that does not compute. So time to go to market now, since there are a few 41?s that can be found for a good shopper, and value exists up to 43.
The various components for the Buccaneers were part of why an Over ticket was put ?In the Sights?? against Jacksonville on Saturday, and even despite an ugly first quarter from Jameis Winston the offense rolled to 28 first downs, with a pair of missed FGs by Roberto Aguayo preventing more production. In the first game in front of the home fans with Dirk Koetter as HC look for some early offensive aggressiveness, and plenty of success, against a Cleveland defensive front that may be the NFL?s worst, and I don?t mind Mike Glennon or Ryan Griffin for the latter stages.
I also expect to see a lot of aggressiveness from the Cleveland offense, which attacked well early against Atlanta last week, Robert Griffin capping a pair of drives with TD passes. But that was without Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman on the field, and for the first time in camp the Browns are practicing with all hands on deck. In analyzing the Cleveland 2016 prospects here last week that upside was noted, and how about this from two-time Pro Bowl CB Joe Haden, after going up against Gordon, Coleman and Terrell Pryor in practice ? ?That?s a really, really solid receiving corps. You know, each one of them running under 4.3 can take you vertical. Those are really, really good deep threats. Teams don?t have two players like that, and we have three of them. So just being able to challenge people vertically, not being able to put an extra safety in the box because you need to have two safeties deep to make sure the corners don?t get beat, I think that just stretches out the field for us in ways that we haven?t had before.?
I expect the losing team to put at least 20 points on the board in this one, which sets up solid value at the price point.
