Tuesday plays and BEST BET(writeup)

[ndnfan]

Still doing some capping, but I've played 2 games so far including a very big play for me tonight:

CHICAGO CUBS -155 (4 units)(BEST BET)
TEXAS +150 (2 units)

In the Cubs-Pitt game tonight, plenty of reasons enough to pound them today:

Home Plate Ump STEVE RIPPLEY will help Bere out bigtime tonight. Rippley loves to call people out on strikes. Out of 88 Umpires, Steve Rippley ranks 3rd in strikeouts per nine innings averaging an enormous 15.17 K's per game. Bere on the year has 165 K's in 174 innings while Anderson of the Pirates has only struck out 85 in 185 innings pitched.

Jason Bere owns the Pirates, he is a career 3-0 vs them and this year in one start vs them, he pitched a gem giving up only one run.
Jimmy Anderson however has just been horrible this year for the Pirates. This guy has only won 4 times in his last 22 trips to the mound and Anderson, I feel, will have this going through his mind again and won't be able to concentrate on getting hitters out today.

CUBS vs lefties on the road this year are averaging a nice 5.1 runs per game while Pitt at home vs righties is only averaging a mere 3.8 runs per game.

In the Texas-Seattle game tonight, I feel Texas is a huge overlay tonight. Texas is starting Justin Duchsherer who is gonna be a great major league pitcher. Duchsherer has shown composure at every level. In AA he pitched 44 innings only walking 10 while striking out 56! In AAA, it was no different. In 50 innings pitched, he walked only 10 while striking out 52! In his only start this year, he got the win, pitching 6.2 innings only walking one while striking out 5. He gave up a couple of homers in that game, but was very composed.

Sele on the other hand has struggled of late. In his last 10 starts he is only 1-4 with a 4.93 era.

I feel Home Plate Ump Bruce Froemming who is known for a tight strikezone will actually help Duchsherer more than Sele tonight. Plus with Seattle possibly resting one or two starters tonight, I feel Texas is a nice play with Value tonight.

Good Luck in all your plays today.

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

Adding 1 more unit on Cubs -150

This is as high as I go on a play(5 units)

 

[yyz]

Nice write-up!

Using your logic in the Seattle/Texas game, it would seem to me that the under 10' +100 would be a decent wager.

You sold me!

 

[gsp]

ndn, I show Marques behind the plate in Pit. He has a large strike zone which should fav pitchers who like the outside of the plate. His record shows the Cubs 2-1 all on the road, Bere 1-0, Pit 2-4 having lost the last four that he was behind the plate but winning 2 out of three at home. Bere only gave up 1 run in the game he won while getting 6 runs behind him. Looks like he gets along just fine with Marques. If Anderson is a power pitcher he proably won't fare as well. Also the game is showing a weak lean toward the over. If runs are scored I would assume Bere does well and Anderson don't. Good luck

 

[ndnfan]

gsp.....I just double checked and you are right. Marquez is scheduled to be the Ump behind the plate. Rippley is scheduled for Wed. Thanks for pointing that out.

I do my Ump homework after the 1st game of the series goes off, and must have copied it down wrong.

I am stickin with my play though. Marquez has a large strikezone as well calling nearly 14 strikeouts per game. This coupled with the other factors in the game, still makes it a Best bet for me tonight.

Thanks and good luck.

 

[wigs]

cubs may be a play, although they made me bend over and grab my ankles last night, what a horrible L. as far as texas goes, i am a little apprehensive about backing Duchscherer. i watched his ML debut and was not that impressed with his stuff. i actually went back and found a post from that game. here it is:-------in case anyone reads this i thought i would pass along any information. not that i play these two teams much ( i actually hate playing them, more i play against) i watched this pitiful game (thankfully i had some "tobacco") and can offer some observations. dont know if either starter will even make additional starts in the bigs but nonetheless. duchscherer is crafty, nothing overpowering, topped out around 87. three pitch pitcher with huge 12-6 breaking curve ball. (12-6 means like on the hands of a clock...ball breaks down not right to left.) nothing to write home about, must rely on location and was able to get by on that today b/c home plate ump randazzo had a gigantic strike zone. -----

i remember how huge that zone was and if froemming is behind the plate it will hurt duchscherer also. it should be interesting to see seattle's lineups, i would imagine as playoff time approaches, especially after their recent sweep to oakland, you will see close to the regular lineup for them. texas might be the right price, but dont be fooled thinking duchscherer has tremendous stuff. he came over in a deal with boston for doug mirabelli(backup catcher) of course in one game anything can happen,so good luck.

 

[ndnfan]

Adding for 2 units each:

Arizona -170
Oakland -1.5 Runline -115