Tuesday September 11th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday September 11th 2007

yesterday: 7-7 +1.69
September: 74-69 +13.65
ml 30-24 +9.14
rl 1-4 -7.67
totals 30-14 +12.27
parlays & IFs 13-27 -0.09
system picks 1-2 yesterday; 18-17 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-0 yesterday; 24-10 in September (70.6%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Phil 55% (-131)-2
mil 63 (-150)+3
Fla 53 (-123)-3 (Mitre)
Fla 61 (Seddon-Bacsik)
Mets 67 (-155)+6 RL 51 (+135)+8
stl 57 (+104)+7
cubs 57 (-115)+3 (Marquis)
cubs 61 (Marmol-Backe)
sd 62 (-145)+2
Sf 58 (-128)+1
laa 52 (-165)-11 Balt 48 (+157)+9
Bost 65 (-212)-3 RL 50 (-105)-2
(2)Det 64 (-150)+4
Tor 51 (+113)+4
min 58 (-115)+4
clev 60 (-151)-1
Seat 71 (-159)+9 RL 57 (+123)+12
(1)Det 57 (-160)-5

system totals

col@Phil ov11 75% (-125)+19 --ump DiMuro is even
atl@Mets un9.5 65 (-108)+13 --ump Winters is even
cubs@Hou ov9 71 (-115)+17 --ump N/A
sd@Lad un7.5 74 (-125)+18 --ump N/A
(2)tex@Det un10.5 65 (+108)+16 --ump N/A
clev@Cws ov9.5 66 (-111)+13 --ump Drake is even


What did I say about fading the Jays? Any plays I make on T.O. from now until the end of the season are going to be small and probably very stupid. Also had a nice lead by the Rockies blown by a slipshod bullpen. On the brighter side of Monday, nice hits on the Mets and the under?Wagner actually didn't screw me this time?and the Nationals?and maybe the A's?sure better hold this freakin' lead (did?done?goal). Totals continue to smoke for me (I should be pounding them, apparently).

System picks are the Mets and the Mariners. Both look to be viable options for Tuesday. System picks are due for a sweep so I think that 2-0 is quite possible. I've also been sucked into playing the Brewers?that was before their embarassment on Monday, the Cubs and the Padres (c'mon Jake?don't make me look and feel stupid). On the Philly game over, which looks best to me (get an 11 if you can?MUCH better option than an 11.5). I'll likely try the other totals; with system totals coming in at over 70% for the month I'd feel stupid not to.

Be back later.
I'll post plays then.
Total fluke hitting
That Ravens +10.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Share it fairly but don't take a slice of my pie.

Share it fairly but don't take a slice of my pie.

PLAYS

system picks

Mets -155 4.65/3
Mariners -159 4.77/3

other picks

brewers -150 3/2
cardinals +104 1/1.04
cubs -115 1.15/1
cubs (-115) 1.5/1.3 (action)
padres -145 2.9/2
(2)Tigers -150 1.5/1
twins -115 1.15/1

totals

col@Phil ov11 -125 2.5/2
cubs over4.5 -130 0.91/0.7
sd@Lad un7.5 -125 1/0.8
clev@Cws ov9.5 -111 1.11/1
oak@Seat ov9.5 -109 0.76/0.7
Mariners over5 -125 1/0.8

2-teamer
--Mets ml
--Mariners ml
+162
0.76/1.24

2-teamer
--Red Sox ml
--indians over5
+147
0.65/0.95

2-teamer
--(2)Tigers ml
--(1)Tigers ml
+166
0.75/1.25

11-team IF bet
1.atl-Mets un9.5 0.6/0.5
2.Mariners -1.5 0.5/0.6
3.cubs 0.57/0.5
4.clev-Cws ov9.5 0.57/0.5
5.padres 0.9/0.6
6.cardinals 1.1/1
7.(2)Tigers 1.55/1
8.twins 1/0.8
9.col-Phil ov11 1/0.8
10.Blue Jays 1/1.05
11.Orioles 1/1.5
0.6 to win max.8.85

15-team IF bet
1.cubs-Hou ov9.5 0.84/0.8
2.Mets -1.5 0.6/0.81
3.Mariners -1.5 0.5/0.6
4.col-Phil ov11 1/0.8
5.brewers 1.32/0.8
6.cardinals 1.1/1
7.Orioles 0.8/1.2
8.indians over5 1.45/1
9.padres 1.5/1
10.(2)Tigers 1.55/1
11.twins 1.5/1.2
12.Giants 2.7/2
13.Red Sox -1.5 2.3/2
14.Blue Jays 2/2.1
15.(1)rangers 2/2.9
0.84 to win max.19.21

15-team IF bet
1.Red Sox -1.5 0.8/0.7
2.indians -1.5 0.5/0.5
3.cardinals 0.55/0.5
4.Mariners -1.5 0.5/0.6
5.Mets -1.5 0.6/0.81
6.Blue Jays 1/1.05
7.brewers 1.65/1
8.padres 1.5/1
9.Orioles 1/1.5
10.cubs 2.3/2
11.(2)Tigers 3.1/2
12.Giants 1.35/1
13.twins 2.5/2
14.rockies over5.5 3.15/3
15.(1)Tigers -1.5 2.6/3.12
0.8 to win max.20.78

10-team IF bet
1.(2)tex-Det un10.5 0.8/0.85
2.atl-Mets un9.5 0.55/0.5
3.clev-Cws ov9.5 0.57/0.5
4.cubs-Hou ov9.5 0.84/0.8
5.sd-Lad un7.5 1/0.8
6.col-Phil ov11 0.75/0.6
7.Mariners over5 1/0.8
8.brewers over5 0.84/0.7
9.cardinals over5.5 0.8/0.7
10.nationals over5 0.84/0.8
0.8 to win max.7.05

13-team IF bet
1.Blue Jays 0.8/0.84
2.col-Phil ov11 0.62/0.5
3.Mariners -1.5 0.5/0.6
4.Mets -1.5 0.6/0.81
5.(2)Tigers 1.55/1
6.brewers 1.65/1
7.padres 1.5/1
8.cubs 2.3/2
9.Red Sox -1.5 2.3/2
10.cardinals 3.3/3
11.Giants 2.7/2
12.twins 2.5/2
13.indians 4.65/3
0.8 to win max.19.75


Evidently I really like today's board. Or at least I like the fact that I've had horshoes
up my arse for the past couple of days?might as well ride it while it's cresting. Really like the 2 system picks so I'm hoping to pick up more than 7 units if they hit, setting me up good on my IFs if (IF) they can win by two and/or (M's) score at least 5. You can probably make more sense of my picks by looking at them then by anything that I can add at this point in time as I could use some shut-eye.

I'm looking at something like 7 games at 60% or higher for Wednesday. Three of those should be high 60's or 70's (Phillies if Kendrick-Dessens (or is he hurt?), Reds (Arroyo-Maroth?sorry, Mikey?you is fade material), and Tigers (Verlander-Volquez)). Phillies would be -150 or -160 for that matchup, I figure, so it might end up being a system pick. Tigers will be priced to the moon (Alice), but if the Tigers manage to sweep today's doubleheader then I'll make them a system pick at -185 or better (65% break-even point). Reds may end up being the best value; as long as they don't get utterly destroyed today I'll likely make them a system pick in the -140 to -150 range.

Not counting these on my stats but I'm in for a few series plays.
10th-12th I took the Brewers (lost #1) and the Mets (won #1).
For 11th-13th I threw away half-a-frankie on the Jays and also took the Cubs, larger.

That's the word from here.
I think I've drunk my final beer.
Some tunes and headphones and bed is near.
A final puff my heart endear.

(best I could do on such short notice)

May we all win a-plenty.
GL


When I first me you
didn't realize
I can't forget you
or your surprise

:weed:

 

[Drew]

Would love your opinions on the following team totals:

Cincy o 5....can decide between this and the over for the game. Mulder wasn't sharp in his first game, and now he goes to the Great American Smallpark?

Mil o 5...This Bullington kid for pirates first outting was horrid.

Col 0 5...thinking on the overall total on this game as well. Eaton has been bad, and Morales not great.

Cle o 5...Danks had a decent last outting, but 4 of last 5 outtings before that were awful

As you can see, all team totals, with exception of Cincy I am looking at involve the visiting team. I like that better because I'm assured (provided no rain shortened games) of getting all 27 outs for my team, as opposed to possible 24 outs for home team.

Love to hear your thoughts.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

sorry, Drew, I'm just seeing this now for the first time (circa 1 am eastern).

Hope you played 'em all 'cause it looks like they all came in.
You didn't need any help on those calls.
The last 3 I would have encouraged you on, being unsure whether Mulder would have anything or not (apparently not).

Nobody the kind of help that I'M providing if there's going to be more days like this.

Got my ass kicked.
Going to try to rebound Wednesday.