Tuesday September 18th 2007
yesterday: 6-3 +5.68
September: 115-108 +12.66
ml 49-41 +3.34
rl 4-6 -3.88
totals 38-22 +11.55
parlays & IFs 24-39 +1.65
system picks 2-1 yesterday; 26-28 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-0 yesterday; 40-18 in September (69%)
system picks
team win% (line)value indicator
mets 59% (-154)-2
fla 51 (+132)+7
cin 52 (+132)+8
mil 65 (-160)+3 RL 50 (-102)-1
phil 65 (-155)+4 RL 50 (+102)even
(2)Col 52 (-109)-1
Ariz 54 (-149)-6
Sd 58 (-145)-2
Tor 76 (-115)+22 RL 62 (+169)+24
Nyy 70 (-242)-1 RL 56 (-117)+2
det 55 (-115)+1
Kc 55 (-140)-4
tex 55 (+116)+8
Oak 59 (-135)+1
Laa 66 (-252)-6 RL 51 (-119)-4
(1)lad 51 (+107)+2
system totals
mil@Hou ov9.5 66% (+106)+17 --Diaz a total under-ump the past couple of seasons; kills this one
(2)lad@Col ov11 68 (-112)+15 --ump N/A
sf@Ariz ov9 69 (-107)+17 --Cousins is an accepteble OVER-ump
pit@Sd un7.5 81 (-115)+27 --Eddings is a great UNDER-ump
cws@Kc un9 65 (+100)+15 --ump Guccione is even
seat@Oak ov9.5 66 (-116)+12 --ump Wendelstedt is even
Figured I'd get this up before hopping in the shower. Not like anybody else is crazy enough to be awake at this hour. Yesterday was acceptable?Brewers win really helped me?but both the Tigers and D'Backs had reliable relievers kill some decent sized leads otherwise I would have been looking at clearing 10 units. One lousy system total was all that showed yesterday and I was crazy enough not to play it?system totals are totally on fire this month?this is a bonus from my system that I really wasn't expecting but will certainly key on for next season, and perhaps for that book that I was dreaming about writing. Probably wait until the off-season at this point in time; looking to do some damage over the last 12 games or so in '07.
Blue Jays are the only system pick today but, boy, is that one highly regarded. Burnett is throwing the ball as well as anyone is baseball?I've got him currently rated up near Jake Peavy territory. Can you imagine the line on a game with Lester at Petco facing Peavy?...we'd be looking at around -150, no doubt, and the Jays own a much greater home-field advantage than the Padres AND they hit lefties much better. Bosox can hit well against righties (OPS .807), but the Jays are a little more potent than that facing lefties (OPS .864 is now the highest in MLB?1 point higher than Brewers). Throw in the fact that the Jays are 17-5 at home to lefties (.773) and I think we've got a strong case for backing the Jays today. It doesn't hurt that the Jays hit .348 last 10 vs L (Burres,Rogers). Also doesn't hurt with them taking the series opener, in shutout fashion. Plays on the Jays are a little scary to me, right now, as I watch most of their games and they have not been playing great ball over the past couple of weeks, but I have been waiting for several days for a juicy line for this matchup and have been given it, so I must take advantage. Jays struggle at all at the plate, which is always a possibility for them, and this game plays under. I also like the Red Sox team total under 4.5 at even money. Burnett is the showcase for this matchup, along with the Jays facing a lefty. This is one of the better lines that I've seen all season.
Other sides I'm looking at include the Marlins, Reds, Brewers, Phillies when it opens, Tigers, Rangers and Dodgers in game #1. Marlins have a shot, doing their best work vs lefties, being on fire at the plate, and facing a soft Reyes here. Zambrano has poor numbers against the Reds, Harang will give his boys a definate shot, and I'm giving the Reds a small edge at the dish for this one. Brewers just looks to be a mismatch at SP and the Brew-Crew look to be making a decent final push to make the playoffs?they need this one bad and are very likely to take it. Phillies, if it's Kip Wells, will look real strong; line yesterday was a gift but it should be higher today; Hamels will be coming off the DL but this wasn't a very serious injury so he should be in decent form?he was looking great before going down; Cards were able to hit lefties about a month ago but now they're having trouble hitting anybody (did get 11, though, yesterday, didn't they?); I'll like it v.Wellemeyer, also, but would prefer Wells as the Phillies have toyed with him before...the way they're hitting I think they should do fine v.Wellemeyer. Tiger forks may have just cost themselves the playoffs with Zumaya's crappy inning which cost me a sweep of system picks; I still like them, here, with Verlander facing Westbrook, but I'll attack it small. Rangers the edge with the sticks and I prefer Millwood to Silva in that matchup. Dodgers Billingsley is really looking sharp the second half; he has poor numbers against the Rockies, including a rough game at Coors in July and a mediocre game at home vs in August; he DOES, however, own a 1.64 era over his past 5 starts since last facing the Rockies?the Dodgers, and Chad, are 4-1 over those starts; Francis has 3 quality starts against the Dodgers this season so maybe the under is worth a look, though the system call is 52% over the 9.5, partly due to this being Coors and partly due to expected output by both clubs' sticks (Dodgers OPS vs L about 40 points higher than vs R); Dodgers are 13-7 on the road to L (.650).
Totals I'll have to consider further. Nothing stands out, save that Petco under (Eddings makes it rock), but system totals are treating me great for September so I'd be best to consider some action there.
Looking for a solid Tuesday.
Will post picks.
GL
yesterday: 6-3 +5.68
September: 115-108 +12.66
ml 49-41 +3.34
rl 4-6 -3.88
totals 38-22 +11.55
parlays & IFs 24-39 +1.65
system picks 2-1 yesterday; 26-28 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-0 yesterday; 40-18 in September (69%)
system picks
team win% (line)value indicator
mets 59% (-154)-2
fla 51 (+132)+7
cin 52 (+132)+8
mil 65 (-160)+3 RL 50 (-102)-1
phil 65 (-155)+4 RL 50 (+102)even
(2)Col 52 (-109)-1
Ariz 54 (-149)-6
Sd 58 (-145)-2
Tor 76 (-115)+22 RL 62 (+169)+24
Nyy 70 (-242)-1 RL 56 (-117)+2
det 55 (-115)+1
Kc 55 (-140)-4
tex 55 (+116)+8
Oak 59 (-135)+1
Laa 66 (-252)-6 RL 51 (-119)-4
(1)lad 51 (+107)+2
system totals
mil@Hou ov9.5 66% (+106)+17 --Diaz a total under-ump the past couple of seasons; kills this one
(2)lad@Col ov11 68 (-112)+15 --ump N/A
sf@Ariz ov9 69 (-107)+17 --Cousins is an accepteble OVER-ump
pit@Sd un7.5 81 (-115)+27 --Eddings is a great UNDER-ump
cws@Kc un9 65 (+100)+15 --ump Guccione is even
seat@Oak ov9.5 66 (-116)+12 --ump Wendelstedt is even
Figured I'd get this up before hopping in the shower. Not like anybody else is crazy enough to be awake at this hour. Yesterday was acceptable?Brewers win really helped me?but both the Tigers and D'Backs had reliable relievers kill some decent sized leads otherwise I would have been looking at clearing 10 units. One lousy system total was all that showed yesterday and I was crazy enough not to play it?system totals are totally on fire this month?this is a bonus from my system that I really wasn't expecting but will certainly key on for next season, and perhaps for that book that I was dreaming about writing. Probably wait until the off-season at this point in time; looking to do some damage over the last 12 games or so in '07.
Blue Jays are the only system pick today but, boy, is that one highly regarded. Burnett is throwing the ball as well as anyone is baseball?I've got him currently rated up near Jake Peavy territory. Can you imagine the line on a game with Lester at Petco facing Peavy?...we'd be looking at around -150, no doubt, and the Jays own a much greater home-field advantage than the Padres AND they hit lefties much better. Bosox can hit well against righties (OPS .807), but the Jays are a little more potent than that facing lefties (OPS .864 is now the highest in MLB?1 point higher than Brewers). Throw in the fact that the Jays are 17-5 at home to lefties (.773) and I think we've got a strong case for backing the Jays today. It doesn't hurt that the Jays hit .348 last 10 vs L (Burres,Rogers). Also doesn't hurt with them taking the series opener, in shutout fashion. Plays on the Jays are a little scary to me, right now, as I watch most of their games and they have not been playing great ball over the past couple of weeks, but I have been waiting for several days for a juicy line for this matchup and have been given it, so I must take advantage. Jays struggle at all at the plate, which is always a possibility for them, and this game plays under. I also like the Red Sox team total under 4.5 at even money. Burnett is the showcase for this matchup, along with the Jays facing a lefty. This is one of the better lines that I've seen all season.
Other sides I'm looking at include the Marlins, Reds, Brewers, Phillies when it opens, Tigers, Rangers and Dodgers in game #1. Marlins have a shot, doing their best work vs lefties, being on fire at the plate, and facing a soft Reyes here. Zambrano has poor numbers against the Reds, Harang will give his boys a definate shot, and I'm giving the Reds a small edge at the dish for this one. Brewers just looks to be a mismatch at SP and the Brew-Crew look to be making a decent final push to make the playoffs?they need this one bad and are very likely to take it. Phillies, if it's Kip Wells, will look real strong; line yesterday was a gift but it should be higher today; Hamels will be coming off the DL but this wasn't a very serious injury so he should be in decent form?he was looking great before going down; Cards were able to hit lefties about a month ago but now they're having trouble hitting anybody (did get 11, though, yesterday, didn't they?); I'll like it v.Wellemeyer, also, but would prefer Wells as the Phillies have toyed with him before...the way they're hitting I think they should do fine v.Wellemeyer. Tiger forks may have just cost themselves the playoffs with Zumaya's crappy inning which cost me a sweep of system picks; I still like them, here, with Verlander facing Westbrook, but I'll attack it small. Rangers the edge with the sticks and I prefer Millwood to Silva in that matchup. Dodgers Billingsley is really looking sharp the second half; he has poor numbers against the Rockies, including a rough game at Coors in July and a mediocre game at home vs in August; he DOES, however, own a 1.64 era over his past 5 starts since last facing the Rockies?the Dodgers, and Chad, are 4-1 over those starts; Francis has 3 quality starts against the Dodgers this season so maybe the under is worth a look, though the system call is 52% over the 9.5, partly due to this being Coors and partly due to expected output by both clubs' sticks (Dodgers OPS vs L about 40 points higher than vs R); Dodgers are 13-7 on the road to L (.650).
Totals I'll have to consider further. Nothing stands out, save that Petco under (Eddings makes it rock), but system totals are treating me great for September so I'd be best to consider some action there.
Looking for a solid Tuesday.
Will post picks.
GL
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