Tuesday September 4th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday September 4th 2007

yesterday: 3-10 -8.45
September: 22-28 -4.8
ml 8-7 +1.61
rl 1-3 -6.52
totals 9-5 +1.1
parlays & IFs 4-13 -0.99
system picks 0-1 yesterday; 5-7 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-3 Monday; 7-5 in September

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Wash 63% (-117)+9
mets 67 (-140)+8 RL 53 (+111)+5
phil 55 (Lohse-Carlyle)
Mil 62 (-150)+2
lad 58 (-130)+1
Stl 68 (-160)+6 RL 53 (+121)+7
Col 51 (+103)+1
sd 62 (-125)+6
Nyy 68 (-240)-3 RL 54 (-118)-1
Det 67 (-183)+2 RL 52 (+112)+4
Bost 64 (-142)+5
Tb 72 (-150)+12 RL 57 (+139)+15
Tex 56 (-155)-5
clev 56 (-130)-1
Laa 68 (-182)+3 RL 53 (+115)+6

system totals

sd@Ariz un8.5 65% (+103)+15 --Cuzzi is a good UNDER-ump
seat@Nyy un10.5 69 (-102)+18 --Gibson is an over-ump; kills this one
tor@Bost un8.5 65 (+103)+15 --ump DeMuth is even
oak@Laa un9 65 (-111)+12 --ump Wolf even in years past but is 9-17 this season with a K% over 64 (very high)


Slept in until about 6. When I checked the scores, one-by-one, I was astonished to see that I hit basically NOTHING!!! Freakin' joke Tuesday. At least I got nice hits on both the Argos (CFL) and Texas Tech (CFB) to save my dropping too much on the day. Fvck these past 2 days on baseball. I'm pissed. I'll be looking to work over the man as best I can on Tuesday.

Nationals, Mets, Cards and D'Rays are system picks for Tuesday. Willis is a joke this year and the Nats OPS vs L is about 70 points higher than vs R, not too mention a damn fine Hill taking the hill for the home squad, looking to rebound from a rare bad performance. Mets offense looks like it's really enjoying hitting at Great American and now face the weak link in the Reds rotation (excluding Dumatrait) with a pretty fine pitcher on the mound for them; Reds still a hot-hitting team, by 7-day and 10-day numbers, but they looked shameful at the plate yesterday vs a righty and now must face a solid lefty and their OPS vs L is about 80 points lower than vs R; play looks real strong. In St.Louis, the Cards get the edge at SP, bullpen, and at the plate; Monday's result will keep the play small(er) for me but I think that the home squad has a good chance to rebound here. The past 6 games or so has seen O's Guthrie with really only one strong performance while D'Rays Kazmir has had 5 beauties mixed in over his past 7 games; offenses fairly even on the season, but D'Rays 7-day and 10-day offensive numbers are superior to the O's numbers; this one and the Mets will be my largest plays for Tuesday.

Padres are almost a system pick, for this Young-Davis rematch, and I'll likely try a piece of the Padres like I did (oops) in the prior matchup; Padres on a bit of a roll currently. Also some value with the Bosox but neither Beckett nor Halladay appears to be in top form currently so I'm not sure what to do with this match, if anything. A few other sides with negligable value; I'm currently looking at the Dodgers and the Brewers.

Totals started September out so bloody strong that I'm stunned by BOTH of the Coors and Miller Park games going over?maybe I shouldn't be too stunned?both are hitter's ballparks so a lot of unders go there to die. Today, if I'm crazy enough to try any totals, my bets will be smaller. All four listed seem reasonable but nothing really grabs me like they did yesterday (grabbed me in the wrong spot, though).

Really looking to net a plus for Tuesday.
This is the first time I've lost for 2 straight days since the first half of August.
I don't like it.
Will be smiling tomorrow. I can feel it.

Will post all plays. Go Mets!...D'Rays!
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

marlins un4 -105 (-8)Hill is a very underrated pitcher but he's coming off of a rare bad outting; ballpark is a true pitcher's park; trying the moneyline--probably enough for me
--have Nats at +1

mets ov5.5 +100 (+9)considering yesterday's production, against the much (much-MUCH) better Harang, the Mets should topple this figure today; Reds pen is pretty bad and will likely work the last 2 or even 3 innings vs the Mets today; (WAY) on the moneyline but this one might sneak it's way into my repetoire
Reds un5 -150 (-9)Perez has good numbers vs the Reds and their work vs lefties is pretty poor; too pricey, when compared to the moneyline, certainly

pitt un4.5 -125 (-9)can't touch this after Monday's result
Cards ov5 -125 (+7)Morris has actually looked very good in 2 of his past 3 starts so expecting a 6 may be be asking for too much; I still like the Cards to take this one, whatever the score

D'Backs un4 +100 (-11)Young DID shut the D'Backs down for the first 4 or 5 in their last meeting, before allowing a Grand Slam in the 6th, if I remember (the inning) correctly; this isn't Petco so no gaurantees here; ump Cuzzi has been a good under-ump for years, now, so this one might be worth a taste...I expect the line to get more expensive as we approach gametime so get it overnight if you want it
--have Padres at -2

mariners un4.5 -140 (-12)Wang 5-0, 2.78 era in 5 vs M's, including 1 beauty vs in '07; M's OPS vs R about 50 points lower than vs L (PLUS, their 10-day BA vs L was .322 while vs R it was only .253); Wang coming off an outstanding performance and was great in the start prior to that one; kinda pricey for a team total and I wish it was a 5
--have Yanks +3, which is extremely low for them; Ramirez tossed one beauty against the Yanks this season (at home) and chucked a beauty against the Yanks last season at Yankee Stadium; his work has been extremely poor, though, since coming off the DL; Yanks OPS vs L about 100 points lower than vs R, but their 10-day figures have them hitting .322 vs L and only .229 vs R
-----Yanks may viciously take this one, but it's risky at current prices considering the way the Yanks are stinking things up on this homestand

jays un4 -105 (-11)Beckett has good numbers vs the Jays and their work vs righties is one, big, huge, stinking joke (OPS near .720, which is pretty pathetic considering their home park, AND their .804 OPS vs R last season); Beckett not in great form, lately, so this one is risky
--have Bosox at -2; Halladay has poor numbers vs

orioles un4.5 -145 (-9)Kazmir having a phenomenal 2nd half to the season; I think I'll stick with the moneyline, considering the comparable prices
--have TBay at +4; Guthrie has poor numbers vs

kc-Tex note: Buckner was pretty good down in triple-A so he might make a game of it with Millwood, who's been pretty good lately; considering the under 10 as ump Emmel (though "even") has had a pretty healthy K% over the past few years (over 63 in '05 and '07 and 62.98 in '06); Rangers bats being tamed by Greinke and vs righties in general their OPS is about 50 points lower than it is vs L; system call is only 55% under the 10 but I may bite the bullet and let system numbers kiss my ass for this one

indians ov5 +100 (+7)considering they just got 5 off of Santana and friends I imagine that they can topple this figure vs Slowey, who was mediocre in the Bigs during his earlier go round this year; looks a tad better than the moneyline
--have Twins at 0; they prefer righties

a's un4 -115 (-12)Weaver has been brilliant for 2 straight and 3 of his past 4; A's prefer lefties; might be worth a shot
--have Angels at +1; they prefer lefties, too, though DiNardo has been good in 2 of his past 3


That's them.
A few look worthwhile.
I was 8-0 on totals to start the month, but Monday I went a ghastly 1-5...can only improve, I guess

I've been awake long enough...
...time for some piece of mind.

:weed:


We follow the dreamer through the purple hazy cloud
So he can control our sense of time
We thought we were lost, but
No matter how we tried
Everyone was in peace of mind.

We felt the sensations tripped inside our brain
Finding complete contentment there
And all the tensions that hurt us in the past
Just seemed to vanish in thin air.

Set in the cosmos is a single sonic sound
That is vibrating constantly
And if we could get it
And hold on to the note
We would see our minds were free.

(Judas Priest, Dreamer Deceiver, Sad Wings of Destiny, 1976)


:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

if anybody knows why that philly-braves game is down then please let me know

although I don't know if I'd touch--Phillies may not like this Turner trip, from the early looks

still would like to know who's pitching

Will play over a 9, if it's Lohse-Carlyle

 

[Cash Man]

my info says Lohse-Hudson, ex if that helps ya. I would stay away from philly too in this situation. Although the lines are now down at my book, so dunno:com:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I fully expect Dontrelle Willis to have a great game tomorrow.

Reading over my post...everytime that I badmouth a starting pitcher, lately, he goes out and tosses a beauty.

Reds' Belisle is another candidate, though I wasn't too harsh on him (saved it until now...guy really DOES stink).

Got the Nats for 2 units and the Mets for 4 so it's time to get back to to some better extrapolations.

I am not cursed.:com:
It just seems that way at times.:nono:

might as well do something useful while I'm here...no arguments (TRUST me) but just some ROI numbers:

system picks
---------------------
(Nats,mets,Cards,D'Rays)
-----------------------

Nats 63% (-117)+9

-117 is 85.5 cents on the dollar
63 x 0.855 = 53.8...
37 x -1......= -37
---------------------------------
....................16.8%

Not too bad. Nats winning yesterday cost me but makes this one look stronger. Nats not too bad vs lefties (13-11 at home to L). Other than last game Hill has been superb.


predicted score: Nationals 4 marlins 3

-------------------------------------------------------------------

mets 67% (-138)+9

-138 is 72.5 cents otd
67 x 0.725 = 48.6
33 x -1......= -33
------------------------------
..................15.6%

Slightly less than the Nats ROI but a greater probability. Perez has done good work vs Reds in past. Belisle is not impressive. Reds only 20-30 vs lefties this season, including 9-13 at home. One of two plays I'll really need to hit Tuesday to have a good day. High priority. 67% call seems reasonable, on some further consideration. Really like this one. Damn...just checked who the umpire will be--Randy Marsh...his K% has been under 62 for 4 of the past 5 years, including this year, and one concern when backing Perez is the base on balls--other than that Perez usually looks to be dynamite; an ump with a smaller zone may give Oliver some trouble. I still like the play but will probably stop where I am, which is risking 5 and change to pick up 4. Always a damn caveat there; you just have to find it. Still like the play as Belise has not had what I would call a "good" start for a few months now; he was "decent" in his last. enough on this one


predicted score: mets 7 Reds 4

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Cardinals 68% (-160)+6

-160 is 62.5 cents otd
68 x 0.625 = 42.5
32 x -1......= -32
----------------------------------
..................10.5%

Lower but still worthwhile, I think.
Cards have the edge at SP, a larger edge at the plate, and for kickers they have a much better bullpen. Yesterday's score is a turn-off, but Kip Wells has reverted back to his early-season dogshit form over the past 3 starts while Snell is just a better starter than Wells will ever be, period. Kinda pricey so I'm trying for 1.5 units only. Cards have gotten themselves into the playoff race and I think that they'll be desperate to get a W on Tuesday after looking so horrible Monday. As for Monday, it's interesting to note that the Cards are only 17-27 in games #1 of a series--their worst mark in any game--while the Pirates are 23-21 in games #1 of a series, which is their BEST mark for any game (these numbers may not even include Monday, making them skewed more toward comprehension of Cards loss Monday). Games #2 is the Pirates worst at 15-28 while the Cards are better, but only 20-24 in games #2 (3rd and 4th is Cards best). Pitt hitting .249 last 10 vs R likely won't include the Wellsmashing; the Cards last 10 vs R at .285 likely doesn't include the Snelloss. Also likely missing Monday's work, but still noteworthy, has the Cards 7-day OPS at .775 with the Pirates 7-day at .663. I'm not high on Pineiro so I can't pummel this one (Joel's 3-game era was 4.80 (team 2-1), though he's 3.71 on the year). Morris has not had a good season but has a 2.45 era over his past 3 starts (team is 2-1). didn't I say something about sticking to ROI numbers?...moving on...


predicted score: Cardinals 6 pirates 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Devil Rays 72% (-148)+12

-148 is 67.6 cents otd
72 x 0.676 = 48.7
28 x -1......= -28
---------------------------------
....................20.7%

Rock-solid. Guthrie may be a concern but he's tossed a couple of bad games in a row. Kazmir rocked by these O's in hist last (T'Bay still won 8-6 vs Guthrie in Baltimore) but he's been phenomenal over the past few months and I think he's due for another beauty; I think he's the type of pitcher that can learn from the recent encounter and improve his approach. D'Rays are 5-1 vs the Orioles over the past 6, after dropping 9 of the first 10 encounters this year. Orioles one of the few teams with a bullpen (incl.5.46 era) actually WORSE than that of the D'Rays (era 5.13) and I'm also seeing 3-game BP era's of 4.66 for Tampa and a whopping 13.24 for the O's.
As for the offensive numbers, I see:
Orioles last 10 vs L hitting .265 (.238 vs R)
D'Rays last 10 hitting .304 vs R (.307 vs L)
Orioles 7-day OPS a healthy .812
D'Rays 7-day OPS a lofty .908 and they've scored the most runs of any team in MLB during that time (a full 7 runs more than 2nd place Phillies).
This will be the other of the 2 games that I really could use to have a smashing good time on Tuesday. 72% call may be a point or two high, if anything, but Guthrie has done poor work vs the D'Rays in his career and I look for the smoldering D'Rays sticks to get plenty enough for Scotty here.


predicted score: Devil Rays 6 orioles 3



Totally out to lunch the last time I posted a predicted score (had Yanks to beat Hammel Sunday). I can't let superstition interfere with this preoccupation so I must pray the light lifts me up.
Before I pine away.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm halfway through 'capping Wednesday's games and I just got distracted by a thought, despite a killer Spiritual Beggar's tune perpetuating my cognitive bliss.

to the point

I originally got a 'cap of 51% for the INDIANS in their latest game at the Metrodome (think it was 51...maybe 52).
ANYWAY...I thought to myself that there is NO WAY that Santana is going to lose to Cleveland again this year, so I modified it to make it a TWINS call, think it was only 51%.
Worse than that, I put money on the game despite there being no value on the line (minus 120something) at my MODIFIED call.

Was a mistake on both moves.

I dunno...further reflection...I have to be allowed to modify the numbers I get as I see fit. I'm sure there have been other times when a flip has worked out. AND, I've got to be allowed to play on games that don't neccesarily show value by the system numbers...otherwise I'm putting too much faith in something that has had mixed results, so far in '07. I think I'm doing better, overall, than I would have done if I just stuck with system picks and totals. I think. Maybe not, actually.

Who freakin' cares? I'm up for the 2007 baseball season, pretty well, so I'm not going to fvck around and change my approach now. Can think about modifying whatever in the offseason (if I have time...we'll have the NFL for half of the "off"-season). I've just gotten my ass kicked for 2 straight days now so I'm a bit mystified. Will happen from time to time so hopefully the worst of it is over. Enough. Who freakin' cares?

sorry for wasting your time with this
in other words

:mj11:


just so this blurb isn't totally useless
like i said
i've capped Wednesday (well, NL so far, minus the last game)

Looking at large calls on the Brewers (Gallardo-Albers, though watch out for Fat Alber(t)s as he's tossed 2 straight nice ones), the Cards (MULDER-Armas) and the Rockies (Jimenez-Correia). Maybe the under in that last one, if we get a 10, as Correia has been pretty hot as a starter and Jimenez has been great, for most of his starts. All 3 of these will likely be expensive. Up to -150 and each and every one (3) would be a system pick. Other NL calls much lower, but I'd take a shot at the Nationals (Redding-Mitre) as Sergio has gone to the dogs and Redding is a pretty solid go; got a base call of 59% for that one...might consider making it a 60 if the Nats take a second straight in this series tonight...a system pick at -110 if the Nats win tonight, then (63% break-even).
Mets-Reds over if we get a 9 (dream()(Maine-Shearn())).
Philly-Atlanta under if we get a 9 (Kendrick-Hudson?).
All I've got so far.
Going to 'cap that last NL game then do the AL; gotta consider Peavy pitching on 3 days rest for that game with 'Zona...otherwise it's Cassel (vs Livan Hernandez). I think I'll consider playing Peavy from here on out until the end of the season. Guy wants the playoffs bad and I think that the Padres would have a shot against the Mets if Young gets back in to form...Maddux would make a fine #3 to compliment the studs. I almost put some coin on the Padres to win the NL but wasn't thrilled with the +450 (I think it was--down now) being offered.

Enough rambling.
I can go on about this stuff forever.

Gonna do a second bowl while I do the AL.
Tunes are running out, too...taken me nearly an hour just to do the NL...and however long it took to type this mess.

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:00x11 :00x32 :00x11

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

PLAYS

system picks

Nationals -117 2.34/2
mets -138 5.52/4
Cardinals -160 2.4/1.5
Devil Rays -148 5.92/4

other picks

Brewers -145 1.16/0.8
dodgers -127 2.54/2
padres -123 2.46/2

totals

mets over5.5 +100 0.5/0.5
phillies over5.5 +100 0.7/0.7
sd@Ariz un8.5 +108 1/1.08
D'Backs under4 +100 0.5/0.5
kc@Tex un10 -115 0.69/0.6
indians over5 +100 0.7/0.7

2-teamer (Home Central Contender Rebounders (trying saying that 5 times fast)
--Brewers ml
--Cardinals ml
+167
0.6/1

2-teamer (too pricey solo but a 67 and a 68)
--Tigers ml
--Angels ml
+133
0.64/0.86

2-teamer (for a piece of Injuns)
--indians ml
--Angels ml
+162
0.62/1

15-team IF bet
1.Tigers -1.5 0.5/0.53
2.indians -1.5 0.5/0.6
3.Nationals 0.62/0.5
4.sd-Ariz un8.5 0.62/0.62
5.jays-Bost un8.5 0.75/0.68
6.Brewers 0.93/0.62
7.Cardinals 1.02/0.6
8.mets 1.05/0.75
9.Devil Rays 0.77/0.5
10.dodgers 1.3/1
11.Angels -1.5 1/1.05
12.phillies over5.5 0.95/0.95
13.kc-Tex un10 1.15/1
14.seat-Nyy un10 1/1.1
15.sf-Col un10 1.2/1
0.5 to win max.11.5

15-team IF bet
1.blue jays 0.8/1
2.Devil Rays 0.77/0.5
3.Diamondbacks under4 0.5/0.5
4.kc-Tex un10 0.8/0.7
5.mets 0.7/0.5
6.Nationals 1/0.8
7.dodgers 1.3/1
8.Tigers -1.5 1/1.05
9.Angels -1.5 1/1.05
10.phillies over5.5 1.5/1.5
11.Cardinals 1.7/1
12.m's-Nyy un10 1/1.1
13.indians 2.7/2
14.Brewers -1.5 1.5/2.1
15.sf-Col un10 2.4/2
0.8 to win max.16.8

15-team IF bet
1.tor-Bost un8.5 0.89/0.81
2.mets 0.7/0.5
3.dodgers 0.65/0.5
4.phillies over5.5 0.8/0.8
5.indians over5 0.59/0.59
6.Devil Rays 0.93/0.6
7.padres 1.5/1.2
8.Cardinals 1.7/1
9.Nationals 2/1.6
10.Brewers 1.8/1.2
11.Angels -1.5 2/2.1
12.Tigers -1.5 2/2.1
13.seat-Nyy un10 2/2.2
14.sf-Col un10 1.8/1.5
15.royals 1.5/2.1
0.89 to win max.18.8

15-team IF bet
1.Angels -1.5 0.5/0.53
2.Devil Rays 0.77/0.5
3.Cardinals 1.02/0.6
4.mets 0.7/0.5
5.Nationals 1/0.8
6.padres 0.87/0.7
7.Brewers 1.5/1
8.Yankees -1.5 1.35/1
9.Tigers -1.5 1.5/1.58
10.dodgers 1.3/1
11.phillies over5.5 1.5/1.5
12.indians over5 2/2
13.blue jays 2.4/3
14.kc-Tex un10 1.61/1.4
15.sf-Col un10 1.8/1.5
0.5 to win max.17.6


Still not too cheery about this two-day downswing but I like quite a few plays today so I'm looking to rebound in a big way. Everything important I've already discussed. Brewers, Dodgers and Padres look to be decent plays so I'm giving them a shot; expecting a 2-1 on those puppies and I won't be satisfied with less than a 3-1 on system picks today; I could actually survive a 2-2, there, if it's the Mets and Devil Rays coming in. Jays-Bosox under looks worth a shot but my Jays play (on the IF) is really just a hope-and-a-prayer move; my boys are, somehow, only 5.5 games out of the wild card and better be playing like a desperate bunch of madmen; Halladay on the hill is, of course, the Jays best shot; mind you, I'll try Marcum over Schilling tomorrow if we see a decent price (+150 or better).

I've already commented on the NL games, save one (sorta). I'll try the Padres if Peavy is going otherwise the call will be Livan over Cassel. For the AL games, Tigers (Rogers v Floyd (or Garland)) will be the only really high call with everything else likely in the 50's. Under might be good in Minnesota (Carmona-Baker), while there's a whopping good chance for an over in Tampa (Liz-Sonnanstine; the latter, I believe, just caught the Yankees on a really bad day?was actually the first day of a really bad WEEK for the Yankees (not yet over?...fade, fade away?a Yankees play, it will not pay?)()). The over also seems possible at Ameriquest (Davies-Padilla), but when isn't that true?

Need some sleep. Can't sleep through the action like I did yesterday.
Yesterday was GOOD to miss, actually, but today I'm expecting to party.
Let's do this thing!

GL