Tuesday Winnaz

JEFF

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1.WAS/SEA first half over 90, 3 units

Seattle wrapping up a 5 game roadie in which the first halves have gone over the total in 3 of 4, and over 90 every time --> 93 vs. HOU, 92 vs. N.O., 96 vs. Orlando, 93 vs. Miami. While they tend to play low-scoring, defensive games at home, Sonics 5-1 O/U vs. first half line on the road this season.

Theyve had a few days off but I don't see the defensive intensity being really high at the end of this trip.

Washington a far better shooting team at home than on the road, where they struggle to put points up. 3-1 O/U FH at home, including 98 vs. BOS and 89 apiece vs CLE and LAL.
 

JEFF

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PORT/HOU 1st Half under 90, 2 units

Gonna ride this one on Portland til it lets up. Theyve gone under in the 1H 5 straight times and 5 of 5 on the road, where they are averaging 40.9 and allowing 38.7 in first halves.

Houston has gone under 90 in 3 of 5 games.
 

JEFF

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thanks bud

thanks bud

Ind/Cle over 181, 3 units

7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

Cle has given up 96.6 ppg om the road. Indy is shooting almost 50% and scoring almost 99 ppg at home. They should break 100 here, and if that happens we'll only need 80-something out of CLE (84.4 ppg).


LAC/MIA over 177, 1 unit

Only one unit cuz this looks too easy. Miami a low-scoring, defensive team, but LAC give up plenty of points and scores around 100 every night it seems.
 
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JEFF

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From the Miami Herald:

From the Miami Herald:

Miami +1.5, 4 units :eek:

LAC looks good at first look, but look deeper...

Miami is pissed about a tough loss against Seattle in which they shot just four FTs. They have played once in the past week, so theyve had plenty of time to stew.

LAC, meantime, is coming off a big win over Orland. They are also on the last leg of an almost week-long road trip. Can you say letdown? Plus, Miami is desperate for a win here. They should have no problem getting off FG attempts, as they are second best in the NBA in giveaways, whileLAC is worst in turnovers forced.

I'll wait til the morning to play this as I believe the line may move in my favor.



From the Miami Herald:

It has only been five games, but thoughts of last year's 5-23 start are already creeping into the heads of Heat players.

''If we don't play well, you start to think about what happened last year,'' shooting guard Eddie Jones said. 'Last year, we kept saying, `Oh, it's early.' We were saying 'It's early' in January.

``I think the time is right now for us to get our stuff together.''

Said point guard Anthony Carter: ``In the back of our minds, it's got to be there. We don't want to start off like we did last year.

``Last year, it was miserable.''

To avoid a similarly miserable experience, the Heat is looking at its 1-4 start as a desperate situation. There won't be any more delay tactics or excuses about an unfamiliar team taking time to jell. This year's approach is to analyze and repair any faults -- immediately.

The problem is, it's taking slightly longer than coach Pat Riley anticipated.

''It's the same things,'' Riley said of his team's mistakes in its four losses. ``It's effort plays, it's not getting to shooters, it's breaking down in the halfcourt defensively, it's making a crucial mistake offensively, not hitting the open man. It has nothing to do with the system as much as it does with individual focus and concentration.

``Why does a team keep making the same mistakes? It's because they lose their focus, they lose their concentration, they lose their commitment to those two things. You gotta get it. Otherwise it's going to be very painful, the result.''

With Saturday's loss to Seattle the Heat's only game in a six-day period, Riley has ample opportunity to hammer home his points. But the coach doesn't want his team to be discouraged by its start, either.

Riley said he's actually encouraged by his team's play, and the fact it has kept games close against quality competition. Miami's five opponents this season were a combined 23-8 entering Sunday's games.

''First of all, we've played, I think, very well,'' Riley said. ``The last two heartbreakers at home are going down to the last seconds. That's where we are. Our margin of error is so small that the residual effects of mistakes and blown opportunities from the second quarter or third quarter or defensive lapses hurt us at the end. So we've got to make everything perfect going down the stretch.''

While no one on the team is downplaying the importance of an immediate recovery, there remains an overwhelming confidence among players that it can happen.

''It's not frustrating at all because we know what we have to do to win ball games,'' rookie forward Caron Butler said. 'It would be frustrating if it were so out of reach and we were so out of touch with what's going on that you're just like, `OK, we're going to have a losing season.' But it's not like that here.''

For now, then, this year's Heat team would prefer not to compare itself to last year's squad, but find contrasts.

Jones says this year's unit is getting better looks at the basket, even if the collective 41.9 shooting percentage doesn't support the claim.

''We're getting good shots,'' Jones said. ``But last year, we didn't even run the play. We wouldn't even run the things we were supposed to get into. We would throw the ball right to the other team.''

Riley believes last year's group, which included Rod Strickland, Kendall Gill, Chris Gatling and Jim Jackson, was doomed from the start.

''We brought a team in last year, we thought that team could win,'' Riley said. ``We never meshed. We brought all those disparate individuals, players from different backgrounds, different psychologies, different games all together and thought it was going to mesh. It never meshed.

``This team's different than that.''

This team apparently has more mesh potential. It just doesn't have much time to prove it.

''We're not a bad team, we've just lost a couple games,'' Riley said. ``But they have to understand, really understand, why they're not winning.''


*edited --> got one and a half points
 
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pt1gard

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hey jef

hey jef

great call in Mavs under fh last nite, I took it hard on 1q call ... I might ride your houston 1h, but they are such scatter gunners, it might be harder to defend and port might be somewhat down after controlling fh and getting blasted in 3rd ... also the heat game caught my eye ... Im just snake bit lately and really gun shy ... gl, tho ... your bets look solid

gregg:D
 

JEFF

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Adding
Miami +6.5 2nd half, 3 units

Also posting this in halftime thread. Miami simply needs to hold on to win to cover this. I'm reluctant to play it cuz Ive got a good bit already on Miami +1.5.

BUT they win this game IMO. LAC is in the last half of the last game of week roadie. Miami, well, just look at the reasons I posted earlier why they should win this.
 

JEFF

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3-3, -4.6
Fawked over big time by the Heat. Looked great in 1H, then got trampled in the 2nd half. 31 points in a whole half? Pathetic.

One would be wise to fade my 4* plays and play the lower ones.

Again, I am differing my plays by a bit on the 1,2,3,4, but it is no where near that ratio --> more of a way of rating my strongest plays. Just an FYI.

Back at it later I guess.:shrug:


Overall:27-27,-13.2

1*: 9-3
2*:10-11
3*:5-3
4*:1-4

Sides:10-11
Totals:3-2
Halftimes:8-7
ML Dogs:0-2
First Halves:4-1

May be time to start playing strictly FH's and totals. Sides have been a tough call thus far.
 
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