Tuesday

[Smitty]

Music City Bowl

lsu (-7.5) 3 units. for years, wagering on an sec team in a bowl game against notre dame has been easy money. and I don't see any reason that won't be the case this year. the injury to joe schmidt was a dagger in the heart of this nd team. and now they're giving a sophomore qb his first start against lsu? even a completely unmotivated lsu team should handle the fighting irish somewhat easily.

 

[Smitty]

Belk Bowl

Belk Bowl

Georgia (-7) 2 units. mostly an anti-louisville play. I simply don't think they're nearly as good as they were last year. the biggest question is, as usual, is georgia going to play hard? that question is keeping this to a 2-unit play. if the bulldogs are ready to play, they will dominate this game.

under (57.5) 2 units. I'm going to go ahead and call the final score... Georgia 38-7.

 

[ejthree]

Music City Bowl

lsu (-7.5) 3 units. for years, wagering on an sec team in a bowl game against notre dame has been easy money. and I don't see any reason that won't be the case this year. the injury to joe schmidt was a dagger in the heart of this nd team. and now they're giving a sophomore qb his first start against lsu? even a completely unmotivated lsu team should handle the fighting irish somewhat easily.

Makes all the sense to me Smitty but something seems to be in the air this bowl season on the sure thing...GL Sir...

 

[Smitty]

Makes all the sense to me Smitty but something seems to be in the air this bowl season on the sure thing...GL Sir...

oh, I never call any wager a sure thing. although the last few times nd played an sec team in a bcs game, I was as confident as any wager I'd ever made in my life. obviously this is a minor bowl, so there's no guarantee lsu will come to play. but the same argument could be made for nd. lsu ain't the only team disappointed to be in the music city bowl.

this was almost just a 2-unit play, strictly due to the question of lsu's motivation. and I HATE betting against backup qbs making their first start. teams almost always step up in that situation. and it's hard to believe zaire will be as much of a turnover machine as golson was. (speaking of which, golson is supposed to play. so we'll have a turnover prone qb trying to do too much when he's on the field. I like that.)

I can't emphasize enough how big the loss of schmidt was to nd. without him, they were 0-4 SU & ATS.

all that said, this is still nowhere near a sure thing. if this game is at all close in the 4th quarter, suddenly les miles becomes a factor. if that happens, lsu is fucked.

right now, I'm just happy Clemson stayed under the total after that first half. I feel like I really snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with that one. as far as the side in that game, I'm really curious wtf was up with that line movement. sometimes the big money that moves lines is not the smart money.

 

[GaDawg12]

Like em both gl to us:toast:

 

[GaDawg12]

Also like Fla and Tenn to roll:0074

 

[ejthree]

oh, I never call any wager a sure thing. although the last few times nd played an sec team in a bcs game, I was as confident as any wager I'd ever made in my life. obviously this is a minor bowl, so there's no guarantee lsu will come to play. but the same argument could be made for nd. lsu ain't the only team disappointed to be in the music city bowl.

this was almost just a 2-unit play, strictly due to the question of lsu's motivation. and I HATE betting against backup qbs making their first start. teams almost always step up in that situation. and it's hard to believe zaire will be as much of a turnover machine as golson was. (speaking of which, golson is supposed to play. so we'll have a turnover prone qb trying to do too much when he's on the field. I like that.)

I can't emphasize enough how big the loss of schmidt was to nd. without him, they were 0-4 SU & ATS.

all that said, this is still nowhere near a sure thing. if this game is at all close in the 4th quarter, suddenly les miles becomes a factor. if that happens, lsu is fucked.

right now, I'm just happy Clemson stayed under the total after that first half. I feel like I really snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with that one. as far as the side in that game, I'm really curious wtf was up with that line movement. sometimes the big money that moves lines is not the smart money.

Best of luck Smitty...ALWAYS enjoy yout write-ups...Tks for taking the time...:0074

 

[Smitty]

Like em both gl to us:toast:

amen to that, brother. :toast:

i'll work on the foster farms bowl (the what?) a little more tomorrow evening, but I might be taking a shot on Maryland to win that game. feels almost too easy, especially with montgomery out.

 

[Smitty]

Best of luck Smitty...ALWAYS enjoy yout write-ups...Tks for taking the time...:0074

thanks, ej. nice to know someone is reading. best of luck to you, too. :toast:

I've always said that the write-ups help me think through what I'm doing on a game. there have been times when I was posting a play and then realized I couldn't justify that bet once I started to try to write-up my reasoning. it's definitely saved me some money.

 

[yanno]

More people than you realize will be reading your writeups...probably you move a lot of money! :mj07:

Good luck and thanks for your efforts. :0008

 

[Smitty]

More people than you realize will be reading your writeups...probably you move a lot of money! :mj07:

Good luck and thanks for your efforts. :0008

you may be right... once word got out that I was on Clemson, all the smart money jumped on Oklahoma. now we know.

good luck to you, too. :toast:

 

[GaDawg12]

Im liking the damn turtles more and more I look at it too :scared

 

[Smitty]

Foster Farms Bowl

Foster Farms Bowl

first, as far as the music city bowl.... yet another reminder of why I know better than to bet against backup qbs making their first start.

ok, on to the... foster farms bowl? hang on, let me check this out.

wow, they're the real deal. check out all the varieties of corn dogs. even gluten free!http://www.fosterfarms.com/products/corndogs.asp

Maryland (+14) 2 units.
Maryland (ML) 1 unit to win 4.3. maybe this one is just too damn obvious, especially because Montgomery is out. but this year's Stanford team is nothing special and they can't be excited to play in the... foster farms bowl? Maryland should be fired up for this game. they haven't won a bowl game since 2010. edsall is a solid coach who should have the boys ready. I just see a big motivational edge here and a favorite that can struggle to score.

a few other factors...

throwing out the debacle at Wisconsin, Maryland was 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road this year.

Maryland has never lost the foster farms bowl.

randy edsall has never lost the foster farms bowl.

easy win for Maryland. :mj07:

 

[ejthree]

first, as far as the music city bowl.... yet another reminder of why I know better than to bet against backup qbs making their first start.

ok, on to the... foster farms bowl? hang on, let me check this out.

wow, they're the real deal. check out all the varieties of corn dogs. even gluten free!http://www.fosterfarms.com/products/corndogs.asp

Maryland (+14) 2 units.
Maryland (ML) 1 unit to win 4.3. maybe this one is just too damn obvious, especially because Montgomery is out. but this year's Stanford team is nothing special and they can't be excited to play in the... foster farms bowl? Maryland should be fired up for this game. they haven't won a bowl game since 2010. edsall is a solid coach who should have the boys ready. I just see a big motivational edge here and a favorite that can struggle to score.

a few other factors...

throwing out the debacle at Wisconsin, Maryland was 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road this year.

Maryland has never lost the foster farms bowl.

randy edsall has never lost the foster farms bowl.

easy win for Maryland. :mj07:

Like it and riding with you Smitty..BOL :0074

 

[Juji-gatame]

Like it and riding with you Smitty..BOL :0074

On it too. Need a lot of help:facepalm:

 

[Smitty]

On it too. Need a lot of help:facepalm:

like... somebody locking the doors to the Stanford locker room at halftime so they can't come back out on the field. although I think the Stanford band could hang with Maryland in the 2nd half.