Tuesday

[Smitty]

Happy New Year Madjackers!

i think i've had a profitable new years day maybe once or twice in the last ten years, so feel free to fade away.

Outback Bowl

i was so close to taking a hard pass on this game, and i really should. i mean, how the hell is iowa going to score? but how can i lay 7 points with a mississippi state that might not score 7 points? and the under looks likely, but i think every bowl game this year when the under looked solid ended up going over. but then i saw one thing that made me make a small play on this game.

iowa (+7) 1 unit. joe moorhead (who clearly is coaching at the wrong school) is in his first year as head coach. first year head coaches have a pretty bad record in bowl games. so i'll assume iowa is going to find a way to score 20 points and keep this close. most likely off some nick fitzgerald turnovers.

if it comes down to the kickers... weird stat on recinos from iowa... he is 4-8 from 30-39 yards, but 6-6 from 40-49 yards. so iowa may be better off if they stay outside the 25-yard line.

 

[IX_Bender]

IM playing 1st score FG/S (non TD) in this game.


This will be the last bowl game to play this one on. Got it at +190.

Didn't feel it was worthy of starting a thread for that one play. Anybody who reads Smitty stuff should tag along, as he plays just about every game on the board!

GL and HNY erry1

Always enjoy your write-ups , keep em coming.

 

[Smitty]

IM playing 1st score FG/S (non TD) in this game.

good bet!

GL, sir.

 

[Four Corners]

IM playing 1st score FG/S (non TD) in this game.


This will be the last bowl game to play this one on. Got it at +190.

Didn't feel it was worthy of starting a thread for that one play. Anybody who reads Smitty stuff should tag along, as he plays just about every game on the board!

GL and HNY erry1

Always enjoy your write-ups , keep em coming.

Nice hit!!

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

i've made my 7-layer dip, which will be pretty much all i'll eat the rest of the day. time to get back to work...

UCF (+7.5) 2 units
UCF (ML) 1 unit to win 2.5. ok, for anyone who remembers how much i loved UCF last year against auburn... no, i don't love them today as much. mostly because of the backup qb and josh heupel. but i still think they'll be able to score, and lsu is offensively challenged. but, holy shit, ucf's defense is bad, especially against the run.

even with the redshirt freshman qb making his second start, i think ucf is going to be able to score enough to keep this close. and i wouldn't be at all surprised with another win. but we also have the first-year coach factor working against us. and i don't think heupel is anywhere near the coach scott frost is.

over (58) 2 units. this one may be too easy, but both teams should be able to put up some points today.

 

[Smitty]

Citrus Bowl

Citrus Bowl

ok, i outlined some of my reasoning on this one a week ago in another thread, and i'm running short on time, so i'm going to try to keep this short and simple.

kentucky (+4.5) 4 units
uk (ML) 2 units to win 3.4
under (48) 3 units
uk 1Q (+.5) 2 units
uk 1H (+3) 2 units. counting on a typical uk ugly win. they shouldn't have too much trouble dragging penn state into that type of game. no surprise, the difference needs to be benny snell. he didn't decide to play this game to put up a half-hearted effort. he's going to have to be huge, since uk can't throw the ball with any consistency.

ok, and kentucky has a little revenge motivation for james franklin. in his last year at vandy, vandy was inside the uk 15, up 9 with less than a minute left. and vandy scored with a trick play. total lack of class. ok, sure, no player on uk's roster that day is still playing (unless they are on the 6-year plan), and i wouldn't be surprised if their entire coaching staff has turned over since then. BUT THE TRUSTEES REMEMBER!!

revenge is a dish best served cold.

oh, and yeah... i had money on UK that day. they were covering up until that bullshit play.

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

another game i should pass on. BUT IT'S THE ROSE BOWL. and i'm weak.

washington (+6.5) 2 units
washington (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2
under (55) 2 units. ohio st was pretty mediocre (once you factor in how talented they are) all year, before destroying michigan and ripping their heart out. are they going to be fired up for this game? do they care enough about their millionaire coach who is quitting again to send him out with a win? i'm putting my faith in chris petersen and a pretty solid husky defense. dwayne haskins has looked good in stretches, but he's been inconsistent. i saw the other day that some draft genius has him as the #1 qb and i laughed. but, you know, he's tall with a strong arm. so... NUMBER ONE, BABY!

one thing i like is that the rose bowl still has a grass field. that'll help slow down ohio st just enough.

 

[Smitty]

Sugar Bowl

Sugar Bowl

georgia (-11.5) 2 units
over (59.5) 3 units. obviously the big question is georgia's motivation. so just a small play there. if their defense isn't focused, texas will be able to put up a few points. and georgia will score today. they average 6 yards/carry, and texas hasn't seen a power running team like this.

 

[lowell]

Thans for your work.

 

[ejthree]

Happy New Year and nice work as always...Hold"em dice... Looks like a good start...Kentucky seems motivated ...:0074

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Smitty happy new year buddy. I agree with you today finally we?re on the same page.

 

[Smitty]

Thans for your work.

i'm happy when it helps, less so when my plays suck.

 

[Smitty]

Happy New Year and nice work as always...Hold"em dice... Looks like a good start...Kentucky seems motivated ...:0074

happy new year! thank you. long ways to go, but i hit everything that's in the books already. nice to get off to a good start.

 

[Smitty]

Smitty happy new year buddy. I agree with you today finally we?re on the same page.

happy new year to you, too! nice, that's what i like to hear!

 

[Smitty]

Citrus Bowl Part II

Citrus Bowl Part II

because i don't have enough on this game already...

uk 2H (+4.5) 3 units. as expected, uk easily dragged penn st into exactly the kind of game they like. huge dumb mistake by franklin early with the fake punt. genius call against a team with no offense.

2H under (21) 2 units. ok, now i'm just getting greedy. every way i look at it, this is a dumb play. but i've been drinking mimosas all day (hey, the leftover champagne ain't gonna drink itself) and i've talked myself into it.

DEFENSE!! CLAP CLAP!! DEFENSE!! CLAP CLAP!!