Tuesdays Plays

[Happy Hippo]

38-34-2 overall
Spreads: 25-23-1
O/Us: 13-11-1
1-3 last night


All right I really need to get back on track after struggling for a few days - looking for a big night tonight - here's what I'm going with for starters...


1) Sonics ? Kings OVER 211

This should be a fun one to watch. The Sonics are the worst defensive team in
the league, allowing 108.4 ppg on the road. They are 3rd in the league in 3
point attempts and 3rd in 3 pointers made, while the Kings are one of the worst
teams in the league at defending 3 pointers (28th in the league). The King &
Sonics are 9-0 O/U in their last 9 in Sacramento. They are 5-0 O/U in their
last 5 meetings and have averaged 222.8 ppg, and some of these games were in
the playoffs where teams traditionally play better defense.

2) Raptors ? Knicks OVER 210

The Knicks and Raptors have losing records because of their inability to play
defense. They are both ranked only above the Sonics in points allowed/game.
The Raptors give up 102.1 ppg on the road and the Knicks give up 103.1 ppg at
home. In their last 10 games, the Raptors have averaged 5.5 points over the
average of what their opponents give up per game/home or road (depending on
where they played). In their last 10, the Knicks have averaged 7.6 points over
what their opponents give up per game/home or road. The Raptors are 29th in the
league in fg% against and the Knicks are 25th in the league in fg% against,
meaning they both play awful transition D and give up easy baskets inside.
Neither of these teams is playoff bound and it?s a lot more fun to shoot than
to play defense.

3) Pacers ? Grizzlies UNDER 180
The Pacers are 1-4-1 O/U in their last 6 played and 1-3 O/U in their last 4 away
games. They are 4-10 O/U vs western conf teams on the road.

The Grizz are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 home games. They are 4-7 O/U at home vs
eastern conf teams and 10-22 O/U home, emphasizing their defensive mentality.

Last 3 meetings: 0-3 O/U
Grizz #1 Defense at home
Grizz #28 Offense at home
Pacers #6 Defense on the road
Pacers #25 Offense on the road

4) Heat ? Wolves UNDER 198

This line is inflated because of the recent scoring averages of these teams.
The Heat have been scoring well on their opponents lately, but most of the
teams they have been playing have been very young, which dictates a faster
pace. The Wolves have actually been scoring less than their opponents allow ?
they have just been playing poor defensive teams. The Wolves are 22nd in the
league in fg attempts/game and the Heat are 19th in the league in fg
attempts/game. Neither of these teams shoot well from the 3 point arch. Both
of these teams have a good field goal percentage because they take a lot of
inside shots. However, both of them are also some of the best inside defensive
teams in the league (Heat 6th in league on the road, Wolves 7th in league at
home) and there should be plenty of blocked shots. They both like to score the
ball inside, but they are both going to have a hard time doing it.

Last 5 meetings average score: 179.2 ppg


5) Sonics +10.5

The Kings have been playing very well at home lately, but they are returning
from a tough road trip. The Sonics have had 3 days off so they are well rested
and adjusted. The Sonics will have an advantage from the 3 point line as I
pointed out above. They are also 6th in the league in offensive rebounds and
the Kings are 28th in the league in offensive rebounds allowed so the Sonics
should get some extra points off the glass. The Kings have been beating
opponents by big margins at home recently, and the line is reflecting this ? but
I think the sharpshooting Sonics can keep up.

ALSO LEANING TOWARDS:

PACERS +5
WOLVES +4.5
HORNETS +3
ROCKETS +12
BOBCATS -2
SUNS -5.5

I'LL BE BACK LATER IF I CAN GATHER GOOD INFO ABOUT THESE GAMES

GOOD LUCK

 

[Happy Hippo]

This line seems to be moving, so I'll post this play now...

6) Wizards -4

The Wizards have been strong at home recently, only losing 4 of their last 20. They have outscored opponents by an average of 9.35 ppg in their last 20 home games. The Wizards are 3-0 SU & ATS vs the Nets in their last 3 games in Washington, outscoring them by avg of 23.7 ppg. The Nets are not a good road team - in their last 7 road games vs opponents with winning records they have only managed 80 points ppg and have lost by an average of 13.3 ppg. I don?t think 80 points will be enough to cover this spread.

PLAY: WIZARDS -4

 

[Happy Hippo]

All Right Hornets - time to WIN

All Right Hornets - time to WIN

7) Hornets +3

The Hornets have been struggling, losing their last 8 games and not even managing to cover a spread. However, their last 7 opponents were all playoff bound teams with winning records, so they have been challenged. They finally managed to score some points in their last game (94) so they have regained their offensive confidence. Their problem recently has been their defense - they have given up 101 ppg in their last 5, compared to their average of 93.8 ppg. Most of these points by opponents have come in the first quarter - the Hornets have been giving up 29 points in the first Q in their last 5 games.

The Hornets are 3rd in the league at handling the ball and the Clipps are 30th in the league at forcing turnovers, so the Clippers should not have many fast break points. The Hornets are 7th in the league at forcing turnovers and the Clipps are average at handling the ball and probably a little below average on b-b games. The Hornets allow their opponents only 76.5 possessions/game which is 4th in the league. The Hornets are 8-3 ATS on 2 days rest and 3-0 ATS on 2 days rest when facing opponents on 0 days rest.

The Clippers are coming off an emotional win. Even though they were favored last night over the Rockets, they haven?t won in Houston since 2002 and it was a close game despite all the Rockets injuries. I don?t think they will play with as much emotion tonight as the Hornets will (they REALLY want to win one in New Orleans). The Hornets may be a bit flustered by their 16 point second half at the beginning of March vs the Clippers, but the Hornets also beat the Clippers earlier this year when the Clippers were on a back-back. Statistically, it would be an anomaly for a team as ?good? as the Hornets (according to their record & statistics) to lose 9 games in a row.

HORNETS +3

 

[Happy Hippo]

Rock'et Texas Style

Rock'et Texas Style

8) Rockets +12

The league average in points scored/game right now is 193.6. When the total in a game is significantly below this average and the underdog is favored to lose by double digits, I like to play on the underdog. In the last 20 games that have been played by any teams where the total score was below the league average, the underdog has lost by an average of 7.35 ppg. The double digit dog is 15-9 (62.5%) ATS since the All Star Break when the total offered is less than the league average. The rationale is that if the game is going to be so low scoring, then there is a better chance that the score will be close.

The Mavs are also just returning from a road trip, and with multiple injuries (Harris, Howard, Griffin, Van Horn), the Rockets should catch a small break. Underdog teams that are defensive always have a better chance to cover the spread, and the Rockets are one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Rockets play well on b-b games, winning 3 of their last 5, and they have played better on the road all year. The Rockets-Mavericks game total is 178, so I will play on the double digit dog - the Rockets.

 

[Happy Hippo]

P.S. this same trend could be applied to the Warriors-Spurs game today, but the Spurs have shown to be surprisingly resilient to this trend

just FYI

 

[Happy Hippo]

Just can't help myself today...

Just can't help myself today...

9) Wolves +4.5
The Heat have locked their playoff spot and (as coach Riley said) are just looking to come together as a team before the playoffs. It is fairly evident that the Heat don?t care about winning big anymore, since they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10, even though they only lost one game. They are not handling the ball well and in their last 5 games they are averaging 2.3 more turnovers/game than their average. In their last 10 away games, they are 8-2 SU, but were still outscored by their opponents by an average of 1.3 ppg. In their last 20 away games, the Heat are an impressive 13-7, but they only beat one team with a winning record. The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as the favorite.

The Wolves don?t have a winning record, but they do have more talent than their record reflects. The Wolves have been playing well at home, with a 4-1 SU & ATS record in their last 5, beating 3 teams with winning records. The Wolves are an impressive 18-5 ATS record in their last 23 when home dogs. They really don?t have much chance to make the playoffs, but I?m sure that Garnett & company don?t like to lose, anyway.

The Heat haven?t won in Minnesota (too cold I guess) since 2000. They have been outscored in their last 5 meetings in Minnesota by 12.8 ppg. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Minny.