Tuesday's totals

[CrazyHorse]

Updated record: 17-11-1 +8.0 units
Went 1-2 yesterday but did win the 1.5 unit play on the LA over. So the profit/loss was 0.0(thinking of a line from "Animal House")

Today's picks:

PHI/ATL over 8.5 -120
COL/SD over 8.5 -120
SF/LA over 8.5 -120

Crossing my fingers that IE is on at least one of these. All plays are for one unit.
GL to all..

 

[Subagoto]

o/u on LA/SF is 9 now ranging from +100 to 115 from what I have seen.

 

[thisisbad]

Someone beat me to it, but I was coming in to ask about that.

I use two books usually.
Both have ATL/Phi at 9 +100
One has LA/SF at 9 even, other 8.5 -120
Both have Col at 8.5

How would the two at 9 instead of 8.5 affect your pick? I know this may seem like a small thing, but it's actually scared me off bets in the past, although i guess if i think it's going over 8.5, i'm still thinking push at worst.

Any comments?

 

[phoenix566]

I posted the following regarding the Minn/WS total yesterday:

Thanks for the info. I don't play online therefore am limited to 2 offices. The one that uses the 'street' line has 9, with 20c juice both ways (I rarely play totals with them). The dime line office and much 'sharper' IMO, is still using 9- U-30. I read this as they know something I don't know, and with Johnny Q all over the under, heres a good chance to load up on extra juice. Of course I could be paranoid, however I have saved myself from enough skinnings by respecting their line. I hope I am dead wrong about being scared here.

I don't know how applicable it is to these games, but the sharp office is using 8- O for all three. The street office has 9 for LA, and 8- for the others. My take is these swings are just the public moving the lines. I'll check again later to see if the sharp office is using different numbers

 

[CrazyHorse]

One of my books has all 3 at 8.5. My other book has the ATL over at 9 and the other 2 at 8.5. Usually if it is -120 to take the over and I can only get over 9 at +105 or +110 I will still play it. Unless it is one I think will just barely dip over the total and I am playing it for the value of knowing 9 wins, not pushes. But sometimes it's not worth it just for the value.

For example on saturday I was about to take the KC/CLE over at 10.5 (-120). Right as I went to place it the line changed to an even 11 but instead of +105 or something to take the over it was -115 so I decided not to play it. One and a half innings later the total went over. So personally I decide if its worth a play over 9 instead of 8.5 based on (1)if the value is there based on where the line was. To me if KC over is 10.5 and -120 then changes to over 11 at -115 is not a good value play for me. Now if over 11 was +110, I still probably have a play. Or (2)if I really feel strongly that it should go over by more than 2 runs, sometimes I prefer to get +105 over 9 instead of -125 over 8.5, etc. But it's very rare I feel THAT good about an over but there have been a few occasions. GL on your picks.

 

[phoenix566]

Great comments Crazy. I couldn't agree more. For what it is worth, when I REALLY LOVE an over, final score is usually 1-0 or 2-1