Tuesday's wagering tips

[Lumi]

Tuesday's wagering tips

Under the radar

On a staff that features National League wins leader Adam Wainwright and former Cy Young Award winners Chris Carpenter and John Smoltz, the most effective pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals has been Joel Piniero.

The right-hander may not have as many wins as Wainwright or Carpenter, or the the pedigree of Smoltz, but the Cardinals win when he pitches. Dating to July 3, St. Louis has won the last 10 games started by Piniero, who goes against Milwaukee as a -200 favorite.

Line change

The Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers will be without starting right guard Darnell Stapleton this season. Stapleton was placed on IR with a left knee injury.

Part of an offensive line that has received its share of criticism over the last couple of years, Stapleton will be replaced by Trai Essex, who played in seven games last season. The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs at Carolina on Thursday and 5.5-point home favorites vs. Tennessee in the NFL season opener Sept. 10.

Life of Brian

With the Toronto Blue Jays playing a doubleheader at Texas, lefthander Brian Tallet, who was bumped to the bullpen over a month ago, will make a spot start. Since late June, Tallet has been the opposite of a human victory cigar. He has appeared in 13 games - the first four as a starter and the last nine as a reliever - and the Blue Jays have lost 12 of them. Toronto is a +150 underdog with Tallet.

Cardinal sins

When the Arizona Cardinals take the field for Thursday's preseason finale at Denver, you might see the starters longer than usual. That's because coach Ken Whisenhunt said he is disappointed with what he has seen so far.

Under new defensive coordinator Bill Davis, the starters surrendered 357 yards, four touchdowns and a field goal without forcing a punt in the first half of a 44-37 loss to Green Bay on Saturday.

There is no line on the Arizona-Denver game. The Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites with a total of 47 vs. San Francisco in their season opener Sept. 13.

Hottie alert

On Tuesday night at Louis Armstrong Stadium, Serbian siren Ana Ivanovic will take on Ukraine's Kateryna Bondarenko in a highly watchable first-round match at the U.S. Open. The 6-foot Ivanovic is among the best-looking players on the WTA Tour and Bondarenko, while not as fetching as her older sister, has a look as well.

The tennis might be pretty good, too. Ivanovic is -225 but should beware against Bondarenko, who has a tourney win to her credit and is a mere +165.

Notable quotable

"It?s like my mother says ? too many roosters in the henhouse, so to speak. Two coordinators and both passionate about what they do and passionate about how they want to call plays."

-- Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson, reacting to rookie coach Todd Haley's firing of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey less than two weeks before the start of the season. Haley was the offensive coordinator for the NFC champion Arizona Cardinals last year.

 

[Teddy KGB]

Thanks for always posting all of the info you post. Makes the day MUCH easier finding info on games rather then sorting thru all the posts when you are short on time. Keep up the good work!

 

[Lumi]

Thank you for the kind words Teddy :toast:

 

[Teddy KGB]

I usually tail away when it comes to bases but with the info you have been posting I actually have been capping my own games and winning (hope I dont jinx it!) so keep it up

:reo: <-- oh noes where did my oreo cookie smiley go

 

[Lumi]

Tuesday's best MLB bets

Tuesday's best MLB bets

Tuesday's best MLB bets

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (+120, 9)

If new Halo Scott Kazmir is depressed about leaving the Tampa Bay Rays, he?s doing a great job concealing his gloom.

The one-time franchise pitcher for the Rays considers the Angels to be a permanent player in the postseason and hopes to stay with the West Coast team for as long as possible.

You can?t blame his excitement. Los Angeles is the unquestioned top dog in the AL West, even with a big year from the Rangers.

Manager Mike Sciosia is hoping that Kazmir can bring some stability to his club?s shaky pitching rotation.

Kazmir doesn?t start until Wednesday, but Ervin Santana hasn?t been a slouch lately. The fireballer has pitched four straight quality starts and the Angels have won seven of his last nine starts.

Grabbing the Angels as a road favorite has been a good strategy this season. Los Angeles is 18-6 in its last 24 games as road chalk.

Pick: Angels

New York Mets at Colorado Rockies (-220, 9.5)

It?s funny how quickly things can change in baseball. Last week there was talk the Rockies might be able to steal the NL West from the slumping Dodgers. But after dropping two of three to L.A. and then getting swept by the Giants, Colorado is just trying to win a game.

Oddsmakers know how desperate the Rockies will be Tuesday. Jim Tracy?s boys need to beat teams like the Mets if they?re going to nab the wild card.

New York is 5-16 in its last 21 games against a lefty starter and 0-7 in the last seven road dates versus a southpaw starting pitcher.

Pick: Rockies -1.5

 

[Lumi]

Best over bets since the All-Star break

Best over bets since the All-Star break

Best over bets since the All-Star break

During the first half of the baseball season, over players took a beating.

Only a handful of teams consistently played above the total. There were about 10 teams playing at an even rate, while virtually half the league was falling below the total on a regular basis.

Since the All-Star break, however, that has changed. A couple of teams have had offensive surges and are topping the total more consistently than they were in the first half.

The team at the top of the list is still the same, though.

Let's take a look at the top five "over" teams since the All-Star break.

Oakland Athletics

This is a bit of a surprise, given that they dumped Matt Holliday on the St. Louis Cardinals. Getting rid of Jason Giambi's dormant bat may have been a plus.

The A's were well under the .500 mark at the break but are 24-18-1 over/under since, which is just under the 58 percent win rate bettors are looking for. As they repeatedly trot out inexperienced pitchers, this trend may continue.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins were nearly 10 games under .500 against the over at the break but are providing a return on investment in the second half with a 21-15-4 over record, a clip of 58 percent.

Most of Minnesota's rotation is on the disabled list and Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker have wilted under the heavy lifting. Jeff Manship debuted as a starter Tuesday, and September is certain to bring more call-ups.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins have avoided the under trend that has affected most teams, in part because their roster is filled with young players who are tough to project. Overall, they have the third-best over mark of 68-56-7 and have been in the top third of the league all season.

Since the break, Florida has taken off, clearing the total at a 25-15-1 over/under rate (62 percent). Already a bad fielding team, the Marlins had a stretch of nine consecutive overs paydays in August, fueled by a streak of 15 straight games with at least 10 hits.

It's hard to say whether the Marlins can maintain their pace. They are a tough team to decipher.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers can hit a little bit -they are 10th in homers (151) and runs (633). But their team ERA of 4.87 looks more like a field-goal percentage and ranks 27th in the league.

Since the break, the over is 25-14-1 in Milwaukee's games, a rate of nearly 64 percent, and has pushed their over record to second in the league. The Brewers have been very streaky, with four stretches of at least three over finishes in the second half.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have been atop the over standings virtually all season. With a 76-49-5 over/under record, they have been a solid 60 percent play to top the total for five months.

With their balance of speed and power, erratic rotation and sloppy bullpen, the Angels have been an awesome over play since the break, racking up a 29-14-1 over/under mark that includes 13 in a row in late July.

The addition of Scott Kazmir may be a mitigating factor, but he can only make six starts the rest of the way.

 

[Lumi]

Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking

John Danks (Chicago White Sox)

The southpaw appears intent on finishing strong, even if the White Sox don't.

While his team stumbled in August, Danks found a groove. In his last four starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP (walks + hits per inning). He has climbed to 14th in the American League in ERA, best among White Sox starters.

Danks has worked at least six innings in his last seven starts.

Dustin Nippert (Texas Rangers)

In five August starts, the right-hander was a bit inconsistent, allowing two runs or less in three starts but at least four runs in the other two. He has 16 walks in 25 2-3 innings during that span.

But one area where Nippert has been solid is keeping the score down. With the total ranging from 8 to 10 during those starts, every one of them has been under.

Bonus: The total has gone over in six of the last seven starts made by Kyle Davies of the Kansas City Royals.

Debuting

Carlos Carrasco (Cleveland Indians)

The 22-year-old righty from Venezuela, a key piece in the Cliff Lee trade, is making his major league debut after lighting up the Triple-A International League.

Carrasco began the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley in Philadelphia's system and was a pedestrian 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA, allowing 14 homers in 114 innings. But something clicked at Columbus, where he was 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA, surrendering just three homers in 42 1-3 innings while holding opposing batters to a .196 average.

Considered a top prospect, Carrasco was a midseason All-Star in the Single-A Florida State League in 2007 and the Double-A Eastern League in 2008.

Jeff Manship (Minnesota Twins)

The right-hander is making his first major league start after just five relief appearances totaling seven innings over the last 16 days. He began with two scoreless outings but has allowed a run in each of the last three.

It has been a rapid ascent for the Notre Dame alumnus, who began 2008 in the Single-A Florida State League, made the jump to Double-A and progressed again to Triple-A Rochester earlier this season.

Overall, he is 10-9 with a 3.86 ERA and just three homers allowed in 126 innings this season.

Slumping

Gio Gonzalez (Oakland Athletics)

The left-hander has been on a two-month roller coaster that is plunging downhill at the moment.

After Gonzalez began August with consecutive wins in which he did not give up a run and worked at least six innings, he has been all over the place. He last lost his last three outings, struggling with wildness and the long ball.

During that stretch, Gonzalez has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP. He has 18 strikeouts in 15 2-3 innings but also has surrendered four homers.

 

[Lumi]

Tuesday's biggest line movement

Tuesday's biggest line movement

Tuesday's biggest line movement
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (Opened: +115; Current: +140)

The movement can be tracked to Twins rookie Jeff Manship, who is making his first major league start after five relief appearances totaling seven innings. Manship wasn't in the major leagues a month ago.

The White Sox may have traded Jim Thome but have had an extra every-day outfielder since acquiring Alex Rios. Look for Carlos Quentin to assume Thome's DH role.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (Opened: -130; Current: -110)

There may be the thought that the Pirates are smarting a bit after dropping a doubleheader Monday. They have a chance to bounce back with Charlie Morton, who has been solid in his last two starts.

No. 3 hitter Jeey Votto is scheduled to get a day of rest for the Reds, who have won three in a row once since Memorial Day.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (Opened: -182; Current: -201)

The Diamondbacks have matched a season high with five straight wins, but the early money believes the run is over. The Dodgers dropped the opener of their last two series and bounced back to win the next two games in each set.

Los Angeles also figures to be energized by the acquisitions of Thome and former Diamondback Jon Garland, who may know a company secret or two.