Turn-it-around Tuesday

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so far... played these on the early game on another thread, posting here to make it easy on TIGER to add up my winning day!
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Milw +125
OVER 11 -105
 

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Went 1-1 on the day game... got the DOG in though, so I'm still PLUS! With two young pitchers going, and the wind blowing out, I thought the OVER was the safer play, but it turns out this QUEVEDO the CUBS traded to the BREW CREW has got really good stuff, and apparently is now SHOWING it! This makes three straight great games after a disastrous debut for MILW... keep your eye on him. CRUZ did well too for CUBBIES, and apparently the ZONE was wide as there were a ton of K's in this game, on both sides.

Well, on to the evening games.

Baltimore at TAMPA BAY

IF the D RAYS aren't playing MINNY, I can't play em! WILSON gave up 7 ER, 7 hits, & 7 walks
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in just under 7 innings, after having pitched well in his previous four, TBAY winning all four. The last game may have been nerves, as he was facing CLEMENS in YANKEE STADIUM. Wilson however is just 3-5 with a 7.15 ERA at home. MERCEDES is very up and down as he's gone 3-2 in his last five with an ERA of 6.10. On the road, BALT is 6-8 in his starts, and he has a 4.94 ERA. BALT is playing well right now actually, taking two of three from Boston at FENWAY, and they are hitting well, batting .294 vs RH over the last 10 games. I like BALT here as a slight favorite. They came up as a play on my dog system, but the money moved the line. I think the money is right on, as TBAY is only 1-9 in GAME 1 after a win, and I see them going to 1-10 in that spot tonite! A weird side note... MERCEDES has had quality starts every other start in his last six, and tonite he's due for another. I'll take the surprisingly hot O's to win tonite at the small price.

BALT -110

Stl at CINCY

Totally passing this game... doesn't matter. Don't know how STL will react, and the REDS acted like they won the WORLD SERIES last nite. Too much emotion going on... side note: HERMANSON is 1-8 lifetime with an ERA of around 5.67 vs Cincy. Game looks to be an OVER play if anything...

PASS
 

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San Fran at MONTREAL

My DOG system has MONT as a play, so I pass on the side right away. SF looks very good here since they are 9-1 in last ten meetings, 8-2 on the road, and MONTREAL can't seem to hit a RH at home lately. BUT, I'll still pass. PAVONO was great last year before hurting his elbow, but STILL looked hurt in his first start back getting shelled by the DODGERS for 8 runs in 3 innings. I don't see him turning it around just yet, and with BARRY and the boys in town, it may be another long nite for him. ORTIZ tends to give up more runs on the road, about 4.5 a game, and I think SAN FRAN will hit this kid hard. Soo... despite not having the UMP info, I'm taking this game OVER. Most of the trends show UNDER, I realize that, but I think SF comes out firing tonite, and MONT gets at least 4-5 for a change.

OVER 9 EVEN
 

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Houston at PHILA

Two teams battling for playoffs... look for lots of OFFENSE in this one, as 16 or last 19 meetings have gone OVER the number!

OVER 9 -115

LA at FLORIDA

LA is in a funk, fighting among themselves and basically self destructing. FLORIDA is a big moneymaker at home, +1580 so far based on $100 unit. I don't see LA heading out on the road and turning it around here.

FLA -125

Arizona at PITT

DOG SYSTEM has PITT... I have to pass.

Colorado at NY METS

Two teams who hit lefties well square off and whereas this would normally be a pitcher's duel, I see a high scoring game here. Was leaning to play COLO, but with a few starters out for them, I'll just take the OVER. HAMPTON's road starts have gone OVER 9 out of 11, and although LIETER is normally an UNDER play, mainly due to no support, METS got warm in LA and I see it continueing tonite... taking the OVER 7.5!

OVER 7.5 -120
 

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San Diego at ATLANTA

BEST BET of the nite for me... I've said many times that ATL is terrible at home value wise vs RH starters. They trail ONLY CINCY at -2270 based on $100/unit. SAN DIEGO has played much better on the road than at home all year, and we have JARVIS going for the PADRES, though he's not great, he's been pitching better of late going 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA. ATL gives BURKETT, NO SUPPORT, hence his 9-16 O/U mark. JARVIS on the contrary is 17-7 O/U, so that washes.... I say take the good road team, vs bad home team at a nice price~!

SD +165 ** P.O.D.**
 

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adding these for 8:05 EST...

NYY at TEXAS

Can't back HERNANDEZ first start back, and won't go against YANKS either. DAVIS has yet to go over six runs in any start yet this year, and his only start last year vs YANKS he got TORE UP BIG TIME! HERNANDEZ will more than likely be on a low pitch count, so I doubt if he sees more than six either... sooo we go to the PENS and that's where I see trouble for UNDER players. TEX BP blew up last nite, and can be expected to do the same. With uncertainty of HERNANDEZ being effective, I'm taking the OVER! MARTINEZ is out for YANKS, but I don't see them slowing down much anyway.

OVER 10.5 -105

Chicago WS at KANSAS CITY

Gotta go with the BYRD here as he is pitching great right now... nice low price makes it twice as nice!! KC all the way!

KC -120

Toronto at MINNY

MINNY is a go-against team til they can turn is around. TORONTO is a strong play on the road vs RH starters at +1015 based on $100/unit. RADKE may not be 100% either which would be the only basis for playing MINNESOTA here. My DOG SYSTEM has TOR as a play, and at +150, I can't find an argument!

TORONTO +150
 

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Detroit at SEATTLE

This line is whacked, I don't care HOW GOOD SEA is, WEAVER has too good of stuff to be a 2-1 dog to anyone. With DET winning last nite, I'm not ready to back them straight up, by I'll gladly take the +1.5 EVEN money as I have this game going UNDER. BARRETT is an UNDER ump all the way. BUT, he also tends to favor the HOME TEAM too strongly, so I say fine, let em win 3-2 or 4-3. In games with totals from 9-10.5, BARRETT is 3-12 UNDER~
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In other words, his games RARELY SEE double digits. So... you got two good pitchers, an Under Ump behind the plate, I think the batters better be ready to swing at anything close!

DET +1.5 EVEN
UNDER 9 -120


Boston at ANAHEIM

I've posted before that SCHOENWEIS is so effective at home, partly due to the fact he's a ground ball pitcher, and the grounds crew helps him greatly by letting the grass grow and softening up the plate area to cut down on hard bounces. NOW we got him going up against CONE, who has kept his games UNDER most of the time also. ADD in HP UMP Guccione who is 8-11 O/U, but 3-8 O/U when the line is 9 or 9.5, and I see another UNDER game in the makings. ANA struggled vs CASTILLO last nite, and CONE is very similar, so I'm not ready to back the HALOS here, and with SCOTT 5-1 in last six at home, I'm not rocking that boat either. I'll just take the UNDER and watch.

UNDER 9 -110

Cleveland at OAKLAND

I was all set to play EVERY WEST coast game UNDER tonite, and then I dug a little deeper. CLE has been shut down in their last four games, scoring only 7 runs over that span, but have faced EXCELLENT pitching in ANA and OAK. THOME had been gone due to a death in his family but was back last nite. There's a strong wind blowing OUT TO RIGHT 15-20 mph according to my sources, and we have an OVER UMP in Andrew FLETCHER who stands at 14-8 O/U, but is 8-4 OVER when the total is 9 - 10. OAKLAND has a tremendous O/U record as a team at home, which stands to reason based on their great starting pitching. BUT we have TWO RH starters tonite, a TON OF BIG LH bats in both lineups hitting with the WIND, and an UMP that averages 12 RUNS a game. Hmmmmm BOTH LIDLE and WOODARD have been posting UNDERS on a consistent basis, but I think that ends tonite in this game. I look for a shootout! CLE is way too good of a hitting team to stay down this long, and I look for them to come out firing. I also thinl OAKLAND will continue to get their share of runs and I see this game going 8-6, 9-7 either way.

OVER 10 -105
 

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In regards to the OAK game, the OVER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings, with the ONLY UNDER being the 9-0 SHUTOUT last nite on a line of 9.5. It's also 9-3-1* in the past 14 games between these two slugging teams, with 10 games in DOUBLE DIGITS!

*The one push was 6-5 on a line of 11.
 
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