Twins are on FIRE!!!

[Destructor D]

I just figured it out and the Twins are 29-7 since June 8th. They were 25-33 going nowhere, but are now 54-40... this is one of the greatest turnarounds I can ever remember in baseball. They are now in the thick of the wild card race, just 4 games behind the suddenly struggling White Sox. My question is will the Twinkies keep winning at an extremely high percentage... I think they will be extremely tough at home, but will lose some games vs. solid competition on the road... they play at Cleveland and at the White Sox for the next 6 games. If they go 4-2 and 2-1 against the White Sox, I think they will be in the race until the end. They have series at the Yankees & Red Sox in September, but this team has absolutely shocked me!

Liriano and Santana are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the AL, Radke has been very effective lately, but Silva and Baker leave a lot to be desired.

I think they will start losing a lot with their 3 to 5 pitchers when facing decent competition and won't make it, but they are making one heck of a story.

I would love to hear other people's comments about the Twins...

 

[alb]

I know what you mean. I've been contemplating a good size futures bet on these dudes. I just took 66/1 Champs and 33/1 AL winners.....I am sure this will be 20 points less in the next week.

 

[IE]

BP gives twins a 10% chance of making playoffs at this point....

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Jul 20 08:02:19 PDT 2006

Average wins by position in AL East: 98.6 93.5 87.1 72.1 65.0
AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Red Sox 57 36 .571 95.4 66.6 45.19242 16.38466 61.57708
Yankees 55 37 .599 95.6 66.4 48.22742 15.27583 63.50324
Blue Jays 52 42 .567 88.2 73.8 6.57947 5.28259 11.86205
Orioles 44 53 .457 71.1 90.9 .00070 .00060 .00130
Devil Rays 39 56 .433 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central: 102.0 95.1 87.8 77.8 57.3
AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Tigers 63 31 .583 101.0 61.0 75.98583 15.91774 91.90357
White Sox 58 35 .564 95.4 66.6 21.66135 38.72691 60.38826
Twins 53 40 .534 88.3 73.7 2.34447 8.26820 10.61267
Indians 42 52 .550 78.1 83.9 .00835 .06888 .07723
Royals 32 62 .409 57.4 104.6 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by position in AL west: 87.7 83.3 79.7 74.9
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Athletics 50 45 .489 81.3 80.7 18.97909 .01932 18.99841
Rangers 49 46 .552 84.5 77.5 44.27112 .02762 44.29874
Angels 48 46 .543 83.1 78.9 32.31281 .02608 32.33889
Mariners 45 50 .499 76.7 85.3 4.43698 .00158 4.43856

Average wins by AL Wild Card: 96.4

Average wins by position in NL East: 95.1 82.6 77.7 73.5 68.5
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 56 38 .543 95.0 67.0 96.93737 1.48927 98.42664
Braves 45 50 .498 80.7 81.3 2.30925 13.00590 15.31516
Phillies 43 50 .452 75.5 86.5 .33865 2.03124 2.36989
Marlins 42 51 .471 76.0 86.0 .39544 2.47708 2.87252
Nationals 40 56 .441 70.1 91.9 .01929 .09292 .11221

Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.6 84.5 80.0 75.6 69.0 62.3
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 53 41 .482 87.6 74.4 59.71596 13.52770 73.24366
Reds 50 45 .492 84.9 77.1 31.48814 18.68027 50.16841
Astros 46 49 .457 78.1 83.9 3.97869 3.75860 7.73729
Brewers 46 50 .463 78.5 83.5 4.77045 4.25809 9.02854
Cubs 36 57 .441 68.5 93.5 .04529 .03537 .08067
Pirates 34 62 .425 63.4 98.6 .00147 .00029 .00176

Average wins by position in NL West: 88.5 84.6 81.9 79.1 75.5
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Padres 50 44 .513 85.3 76.7 42.77600 10.49519 53.27119
Giants 48 47 .488 81.6 80.4 15.96965 8.43632 24.40598
Diamondbacks 47 47 .484 81.0 81.0 13.82876 7.02709 20.85585
Dodgers 47 48 .509 82.1 79.9 18.46522 9.42363 27.88885
Rockies 45 49 .497 79.7 82.3 8.96036 5.26104 14.22140

Average wins by NL Wild Card: 86.7




As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.

 

[Destructor D]

Thanks IE. I'll probably cut and paste this page. His predictions seem fairly solid, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.

I also find it interesting the Yankees are still expected win the AL East and Boston has a good shot at a wild card spot.

 

[Destructor D]

Twins are now 31-8 since June 8th. Going to keep updating this page until they start to fade. Just 3 games out of a wild card.

 

[Its Gravy]

sticking it in the Wsox ass
lmao
Go Twinkies !!!!!

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

this is one of the greatest turnarounds I can ever remember in baseball.

astros were 21 - 35 last year after 56 games

then went 38-12 the next 50. pretty similar story.

they have the 2nd best young arm in baseball in liriano. he should have been starting from the beginning this year. its silly that he wasn't. they tried to baby him along and put them in a hole to start the season. shows how dispensible torri hunter is.

nice young team. don't think they catch either team this year, but it wouldn't shock me if they did.

gl

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Twins are now 31-8 since June 8th. Going to keep updating this page until they start to fade. Just 3 games out of a wild card.

been saying this in my threads the last month now....
don't know why people didn't notice this before....or the Atlanta Braves resurgance the last month as well....?

:shrug: :com:

 

[walleyek]

10% chance of making the playoffs? Naw. I see their chance at 50%. To catch Detroit, maybe 30% -- but they should outlast the White Sox and very well could beat out NYY or Boston. This Twins team will not go away. Their manager's too good, their starters AND relievers are too good and now they've been getting surprise contributions from guys like Punto, Tyner, and Bartlett. No need for a mediocre Torii Hunter or the oft-injured Shannon Stewart -- the nucleus is there to continue the charge into the playoffs. Any future wager on this team is money well spent.

 

[Destructor D]

32-8 since June 8th equals an .800 winning percentage.

Sorry Dodger Blue, but this turnaround wasn't expected at all by the Twins. The Disastros were expected to be really good last year. Just my thoughts.

 

[Chadman]

Local flavor here. I can go either way on this team. The impressive thing about them is the continuing power shown by Cuddyer and Morneau, who seemingly worked through their mental issues and when given the chance to do the job, have done it. Joe Mauer is simply the best hitter in the league, in my opinion. His home run last night was the kind of hit that legends are made from. Of course, Cuddy and Morneau had gone yard earlier. Punto is a very stabilizing influence on guys for being so young. Hunter is going to be important down the stretch as his defense will make a big difference. The kids are playing the game the right way - the hitters, I mean - going the other way, moving runners, clutch big hits. The top 3 pitchers are unmatched in baseball, and probably will be the rest of the way. There are other options on the staff and in the minors if Silva cannot right himself. He has been better the last few starts. Baker seems to be better than when he went down. The bullpen is terrific.

All that being said, you cannot expect the team to continue this pace forever, especially with so many kids in the mix. It simply does not happen. Catching the Tigers is not going to happen, IMO, but the wild card is without a doubt in play. With their pitching alone, I think they have to be in that mix to the end.

But when you look at who they are fighting, they have to be prepared to make a relatively big move in the next week. Package 2-3 of their interchangeable young parts to get a nice starter, would be my suggestion. You get a reliable starter to throw in at #4 and away you go. The Sox are evidently going to get Soriano, but hitting is not their current problem. I hope the Twins get a good starter, get (and keep) Hunter back in the lineup every day down the stretch, and see what happens.

I think they definitely can win the wildcard, but it will be tough without a dependable outing from the #4 OR #5 slot each trip through the rotation.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Local flavor here. I can go either way on this team. The impressive thing about them is the continuing power shown by Cuddyer and Morneau, who seemingly worked through their mental issues and when given the chance to do the job, have done it. Joe Mauer is simply the best hitter in the league, in my opinion. His home run last night was the kind of hit that legends are made from. Of course, Cuddy and Morneau had gone yard earlier. Punto is a very stabilizing influence on guys for being so young. Hunter is going to be important down the stretch as his defense will make a big difference. The kids are playing the game the right way - the hitters, I mean - going the other way, moving runners, clutch big hits. The top 3 pitchers are unmatched in baseball, and probably will be the rest of the way. There are other options on the staff and in the minors if Silva cannot right himself. He has been better the last few starts. Baker seems to be better than when he went down. The bullpen is terrific.

All that being said, you cannot expect the team to continue this pace forever, especially with so many kids in the mix. It simply does not happen. Catching the Tigers is not going to happen, IMO, but the wild card is without a doubt in play. With their pitching alone, I think they have to be in that mix to the end.

But when you look at who they are fighting, they have to be prepared to make a relatively big move in the next week. Package 2-3 of their interchangeable young parts to get a nice starter, would be my suggestion. You get a reliable starter to throw in at #4 and away you go. The Sox are evidently going to get Soriano, but hitting is not their current problem. I hope the Twins get a good starter, get (and keep) Hunter back in the lineup every day down the stretch, and see what happens.

I think they definitely can win the wildcard, but it will be tough without a dependable outing from the #4 OR #5 slot each trip through the rotation.

chadman, awesome insight into the offense as it's nice to get a local perspective on this team...

...having been handicapping MLB for 5 years now, there's usually 2 teams that go on 2nd half streaks and leave everyone behind in their dust....last year it was the Astros and the A-team, and man, let me tell you it's so easy to cap those games based on w/l numbers like the TWINS have put up in their last 40 games...and that's when you double down on those teams which made me a killing last year.....

I've been following the Twins pitching staff closely, and you knew they were going to be ready to take out the chi-sox in this series....even if they lose 2 of 3, Minny will get up for every game that they play here on and down the stretch.....I can't say that about the current chi-sox team.

I can't see this Twins team going on more than a 2 game losing streak for the rest of the season due to their pitching....and in regards to the 4-5 combo of baker and silva....i think good pitching is infectious....and they've caught a touch of it...Silva and Baker don't have to be lights out....all they have to do is keep the score close or tied until about the 6th inning when Minny's hitters should take out any bullpen relievers they face....

I'm thankful to have a team like this to bet on...kind of like the Tigers winning this year and betting against them when they were REALLY bad 2-3 years ago....

 

[Chadman]

I just want to mention a couple of things about the 1-2 punch of Santana and Liriano, for what it is worth. I have some nagging reservations about both of them, despite how obviously good they are. Santana has shown a couple of chinks in the armour over the past few outings, in my opinion. I honestly think he may be feeling a little "slighted" by all the attention Liriano is getting nationally - and locally. He had a rough outing last time out, walking 4, 3 in the 5th inning alone, and was embarrassed by that to a degree. Where he goes from there is up for debate, I ASSUME he will be better than that next time out - tonight. He should leave nothing on the table against the hated Sox, at least, but if there is something messing with his head, it might show up sooner than later. With Liriano, he has shown a propensity to throw a lot of pitches from time to time, and is still not battle-tested in a big-series kind of way. The kid is virtually unhittable, but sometimes just seems to get a little lost for short stretches.

This is probably more worried than I need to be (Minnesota fans have conditioned themselves for the worst, as you can imagine), but with the higher odds these guys are going to bring from here on out, I wouldn't make them an automatic winner every time out, necessarily. That being said, I will take them - especially Santana - in any game from a rooting perspective, every time out. Can't wait to see tonights game, and Johan on the hill.

I'd love to see him knock AJ down his first time up...lol. :box2:

 

[Destructor D]

Twins win again... only 1 game back and already won the series vs. the White Sox.

Updated Record 33-8 their last 41 games... UNREAL!

 

[vyrus858]

yup, and they added a nice chunk to my account tonight as well...they are reminding me of the Patriots right now..bunch of small names, with 2 studs in Liriano/Santana (Brady and Dillon) and bunch of small name guys who give it their best day in and day out...im taking them right now to win the division, and a couple units to win the Series...no NL team could match the Twinkies in a 7 game series, when they have to face Santana twice

 

[Chadman]

The true test...what do you have for us today, Carlos?!? Bartlett played a fantastic game last night, some nice plays at short. These kids just keep getting it done.