TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS +160 - I am going out on a limb with what I feel is a nice Value Pop tonight. First of all, the key numbers for tonight's starting pitchers are not that much different. Lohse is 2-3 with a 4.46 ERA and an excellent 1.12 ratio, and he is coming off of a Quality Start at Boston where he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 6.1 innings. Brazelton has no record, but he pitched well in his lone start this year, allowing 3 runs and 6 hits in 5.2 innings. His 4.76 ERA and 1.24 ratio are both comparable to Lohse's numbers. It should be noted that Brazelton did get a couple of starts in September of last year, holding the mighty Yankees to 2 runs in 7 innings in one of those outings. Turning our attention to the offenses, you may be amazed to know that the Devils Rays as a team are hitting .306 vs. right-handed pitching at home this season! In fact, their overall home scoring average of 5.22 runs per game is higher than Minnesota's road average of 5.05 runs per contest. The Twins are hitting a modest .256 vs. right-handers on the road. Finally, while the Twins have one of the best bullpens in the American League, the Tampa Bay bullpen has also performed admirably, as they have lowered their pen ERA to a respectable 3.96. While the Twins certainly deserve to be favored in here, I am not convinced that they should be favored by THIS much, so I will go for the gold here at an inflated price.
