- Apr 4, 2002
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MINNESOTA TWINS +165 - This one is strictly a VALUE play, as surprisingly, very little separates these starting pitchers statistically. Yes, Mussina finished at 17-8 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.08 ratio. However, Santana was not exactly chopped liver, as he ended up 12-3, and he actually had a lower ERA than Mussina at 3.07 with a comparable 1.10 ratio! Most impressively, the Twins as a team were 13-5, 72.2% in all Santana starts, meaning that he almost always pitches well enough to give his team a chance. At this price, that is all that we could ask for. Looking beyond the starting pitching, the Twins appear to have a considerable edge in the bullpen, where the Yankees set-up men have had trouble all season getting to the closer Rivera. On the other hand, Minnesota finished 4th in the American League with a group pen ERA of 3.84. The only obvious advantage we see for the Yankees here is offensively, but even that edge may be neutralized if Santana can maintain his current form that has seen him allow 3 earned runs or less in an amazing 9 of his last 10 starts. The fact that the southpaw has never started vs. the Yanks should also work to his advantage. Finally, I am very well aware that Mussina has a lifetime record of 20-2 vs. Minnesota. However, that stat must be taken with a grain of salt, as the Twins did not have a very good team for many seasons until finally emerging in the last 2 years. During this time, Mussina has a more ?human? 4.23 ERA in 4 starts against the Twins.