Two early plays
- Thread starter TheShrimp
- Start date
Adding:
KC SU +140
Minn +4.5 -110
Sea +7 -105
Buff +3 +105
Det +8.5 -110
Jax +3.5 -110
Arz +7.5 -120
Sea o41 -110 (.5 unit)
KC SU +140
Minn +4.5 -110
Sea +7 -105
Buff +3 +105
Det +8.5 -110
Jax +3.5 -110
Arz +7.5 -120
Sea o41 -110 (.5 unit)
i see where you are goin`...
i see where you are goin`...
and i`m not talkin` about dogs....there are a couple there that,even though they are anti-public,anti- consensus,you have to scratch your head on......
my boxing buddy-are you doing any capping,or strictly going anti-public.....?...... best of luck on all but 2.
i see where you are goin`...
and i`m not talkin` about dogs....there are a couple there that,even though they are anti-public,anti- consensus,you have to scratch your head on......
my boxing buddy-are you doing any capping,or strictly going anti-public.....?...... best of luck on all but 2.
Let me tell you about one game, and this is kind of how I look at these things.
First of all. Detroit went 2-14 last year. Miami went 11-5 and were a playoff team. That fact alone means, to me, that this line is going to be inflated more than the teams on the field dictate that it should be.
Detroit had some decent defensive efforts and made a couple of strong acquisitions, including Todd Lyght and Corey Harris. With Porcher and Pritchett on that side of the ball, they have some experience and talent. That side of the ball is going to be ready to play. And they're going up against a dinged up Dolphins oline that hasn't played together at all.
Everyone is sold on Ricky W. and for some reason people love Fiedler, but I'm not hyped up on them, and Jay doesn't have much to throw to except Gadsen.
Detroit picked up Hakim, and they still have the talented, if sometime injured, Stewart carrying the ball (4.8 ypc last year). I think this team is looking much improved and that 8.5 is from last year, not this year.
Special teams are close to a wash with these guys.
So whereas there might be a personnel and coaching advantage to Miami, it just boils down to whether I think its as great as 8.5, which really boils down to whether I think its as great as the public does which is kind of where the 8.5 comes from anyway.
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Anyway, there's a look at one game.
Here's a few things:
The thing is, a bet is really almost always "anti-public" for me. I tend to think a line has two components, the on-field matchup and the the public sentiment. Look at the SB last year. The rams might have been a legitimate 10 pt favorite over the pats, with a 4 point public sentiment thrown in. I don't think that you get such "sentiment" swings in the regular season, but maybe Miami is a legitimate 6.5 pt fave with a 2 point swing thrown in.
Anyway, that's how I look at it. So I'm not just going anti-public but capping with a heavy dose of anti-public thrown in.
For the last few years, I've had MUCH better second halves of the season than first halves. I don't know if its just the fall of the dice or if there's something to it. If I feel like I'm seeing things in November, I'll start doubling up.
I don't always play this many dogs. I like boys, bucs and pack, but I don't like laying lumber in week one. I might add cowboys depending on the health of Boselli (I don't care if Carr is injured).
I also don't always play this many games, but I've been looking at some of these games for 1.5 weeks, not just since Sunday. If I play more than 5 games, I won't play them for my full amount.
Thanks for the comments.
First of all. Detroit went 2-14 last year. Miami went 11-5 and were a playoff team. That fact alone means, to me, that this line is going to be inflated more than the teams on the field dictate that it should be.
Detroit had some decent defensive efforts and made a couple of strong acquisitions, including Todd Lyght and Corey Harris. With Porcher and Pritchett on that side of the ball, they have some experience and talent. That side of the ball is going to be ready to play. And they're going up against a dinged up Dolphins oline that hasn't played together at all.
Everyone is sold on Ricky W. and for some reason people love Fiedler, but I'm not hyped up on them, and Jay doesn't have much to throw to except Gadsen.
Detroit picked up Hakim, and they still have the talented, if sometime injured, Stewart carrying the ball (4.8 ypc last year). I think this team is looking much improved and that 8.5 is from last year, not this year.
Special teams are close to a wash with these guys.
So whereas there might be a personnel and coaching advantage to Miami, it just boils down to whether I think its as great as 8.5, which really boils down to whether I think its as great as the public does which is kind of where the 8.5 comes from anyway.
--------
Anyway, there's a look at one game.
Here's a few things:
The thing is, a bet is really almost always "anti-public" for me. I tend to think a line has two components, the on-field matchup and the the public sentiment. Look at the SB last year. The rams might have been a legitimate 10 pt favorite over the pats, with a 4 point public sentiment thrown in. I don't think that you get such "sentiment" swings in the regular season, but maybe Miami is a legitimate 6.5 pt fave with a 2 point swing thrown in.
Anyway, that's how I look at it. So I'm not just going anti-public but capping with a heavy dose of anti-public thrown in.
For the last few years, I've had MUCH better second halves of the season than first halves. I don't know if its just the fall of the dice or if there's something to it. If I feel like I'm seeing things in November, I'll start doubling up.
I don't always play this many dogs. I like boys, bucs and pack, but I don't like laying lumber in week one. I might add cowboys depending on the health of Boselli (I don't care if Carr is injured).
I also don't always play this many games, but I've been looking at some of these games for 1.5 weeks, not just since Sunday. If I play more than 5 games, I won't play them for my full amount.
Thanks for the comments.
Did a Teaser
Did a Teaser
I did a teaser before I saw your picks.
6 point teaser
Minnesota + 10 1/2
Detroit +14 1/2
Too many points (nice 1/2s) for two games that the teams could easily win outright.
Preseason record
7-4-0 straight
2-0-0 teasers
Did a Teaser
I did a teaser before I saw your picks.
6 point teaser
Minnesota + 10 1/2
Detroit +14 1/2
Too many points (nice 1/2s) for two games that the teams could easily win outright.
Preseason record
7-4-0 straight
2-0-0 teasers
Can't argue with too much you've said there Shrimp. I was just curious when I first saw it if you just play dogs blindly, but obviously you don't. I'm a dog player too, but even I don't usually take that many.
You make some good points on Detroit. I don't feel they were anywhere near as bad last year as their 2-14 record appears. If you only look at "2-14", you miss out on the fact they were IN a lot of games, but just had a penchant for gagging and coming up short. I don't know how improved they will be, but I consider last year's squad to be more of about a 5-11 calibre team.
We saw this a couple years ago when San Diego went 1-15. They lost a TON of close games, and the next year went 5-11 without really improving a whole lot, in reality. We may see the same thing from the Lions this year.
One last footnote....I'd advise everyone to be VERY careful if you are considering taking any favorite of 7 or more this week. We just don't know what we are dealing with at this point in the year. At the end of the year we will look back at these Week 1 lines and probably laugh and wonder how Team X could have ever been favored by 7+ over Team Y.
You make some good points on Detroit. I don't feel they were anywhere near as bad last year as their 2-14 record appears. If you only look at "2-14", you miss out on the fact they were IN a lot of games, but just had a penchant for gagging and coming up short. I don't know how improved they will be, but I consider last year's squad to be more of about a 5-11 calibre team.
We saw this a couple years ago when San Diego went 1-15. They lost a TON of close games, and the next year went 5-11 without really improving a whole lot, in reality. We may see the same thing from the Lions this year.
One last footnote....I'd advise everyone to be VERY careful if you are considering taking any favorite of 7 or more this week. We just don't know what we are dealing with at this point in the year. At the end of the year we will look back at these Week 1 lines and probably laugh and wonder how Team X could have ever been favored by 7+ over Team Y.
i kow i`m beatin` a dead horse,but
i kow i`m beatin` a dead horse,but
the game that has me BUFFALOED is BUFFALO.....i know bledsoe is there.....so does everybody else apparently...but the bills offensive line is a shambles...the jets get jason ferguson back at nose tackle and john abraham back at end...add to that rookie pass rusher bryan thomas from uab(tore up camp).....their db`s are bigger and more physical this year....josh reed should take a while to jell with bledsoe(and offset that with the jets getting santana moss back)...i just think the jets are to well balanced for a mediocre bill team....everybody has ignored the fact that this team`s o`line and d` line are sad...i know the pre-season isn`t considered by many,but,the jets looked like the cohesive veteran team they are....and they are probably the best road team in football over the last 5 years(including vs buffalo)......and the jets follow with new england and at miami so if they lose here,0-3 is not out of the question...i have to admit i had this game circled when buffalo got bledsoe.....and the line opened at jets-1(if the jets hadn`t had such an impressive pre-season,i probably would be getting points)......i guess i should be happy that so many contrarians like the bills....i understand the first game of the season is the great equalizer....i am an anti-public guy myself,but sometimes ,i think you have to read between the lines....i still think bledsoe is the same guy who couldn`t get it done with the talent brady did get it done with.....also,bledsoe went down 8 times in roughly 1.5 quarters of play in pre-season....the bills have 3 new offensive line starters playing 4 new positions....they were flagged numerous times in pre-season......it will be awhile before they get comfortable and jell(if they do).......i did a lot of work on this game...now i`ve got a small middle to go along with my strong side on the jets.......i could be wrong.....i hope not.... ...g.l.
i kow i`m beatin` a dead horse,but
the game that has me BUFFALOED is BUFFALO.....i know bledsoe is there.....so does everybody else apparently...but the bills offensive line is a shambles...the jets get jason ferguson back at nose tackle and john abraham back at end...add to that rookie pass rusher bryan thomas from uab(tore up camp).....their db`s are bigger and more physical this year....josh reed should take a while to jell with bledsoe(and offset that with the jets getting santana moss back)...i just think the jets are to well balanced for a mediocre bill team....everybody has ignored the fact that this team`s o`line and d` line are sad...i know the pre-season isn`t considered by many,but,the jets looked like the cohesive veteran team they are....and they are probably the best road team in football over the last 5 years(including vs buffalo)......and the jets follow with new england and at miami so if they lose here,0-3 is not out of the question...i have to admit i had this game circled when buffalo got bledsoe.....and the line opened at jets-1(if the jets hadn`t had such an impressive pre-season,i probably would be getting points)......i guess i should be happy that so many contrarians like the bills....i understand the first game of the season is the great equalizer....i am an anti-public guy myself,but sometimes ,i think you have to read between the lines....i still think bledsoe is the same guy who couldn`t get it done with the talent brady did get it done with.....also,bledsoe went down 8 times in roughly 1.5 quarters of play in pre-season....the bills have 3 new offensive line starters playing 4 new positions....they were flagged numerous times in pre-season......it will be awhile before they get comfortable and jell(if they do).......i did a lot of work on this game...now i`ve got a small middle to go along with my strong side on the jets.......i could be wrong.....i hope not....
...g.l.
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I don't put much weight on this, but Bills always play Jets tough. They always seem to beat 'em when they have a "weaker" squad, and when they don't the games are close.
Wait and see how many catches Riemersma has this year. I bet he catches 65-70 balls this year. Bledsoe's gonna love him. I can see Peerless price having a break out year.
The Bills were one team that I had slated for improvement this year. They had some good defensive efforts (that late season collapase against SF on Sunday night excluded), and I thought they had a lot of elements in place to make a run at 8-8 this year.
And what's Vinny? That guy is just as likely to throw 4 picks as he is to throw 4 td's.
I think you'll see a good game, decided either way by a field goal or less.
Anyway, GL on all your picks.
TheShrimp
Also, adding
Dallas -8.5 (.5 unit) Boselli's doubtful, and even if he plays, its with some shoulder guard or something, and soreness.
Wait and see how many catches Riemersma has this year. I bet he catches 65-70 balls this year. Bledsoe's gonna love him. I can see Peerless price having a break out year.
The Bills were one team that I had slated for improvement this year. They had some good defensive efforts (that late season collapase against SF on Sunday night excluded), and I thought they had a lot of elements in place to make a run at 8-8 this year.
And what's Vinny? That guy is just as likely to throw 4 picks as he is to throw 4 td's.
I think you'll see a good game, decided either way by a field goal or less.
Anyway, GL on all your picks.
TheShrimp
Also, adding
Dallas -8.5 (.5 unit) Boselli's doubtful, and even if he plays, its with some shoulder guard or something, and soreness.
Carolina +2. (+1.)
New England +2.5 (+1)
Dallas -8.5 (.5 unit) (-.55)
KC SU +140 (+1.4)
Minn +4.5 -110 (+1)
Sea +7 -105 (-1.05)
Buff +3 +105 (-1)
Det +8.5 -110 (-1.1)
Jax +3.5 -110 (+1)
Arz +7.5 -120 (-1.2)
Sea o41 -110 (.5 unit) (+.5)
Up 4.9. Down 4.9
Dead even going into tonights game.
The jets game is frustrating because you go into overtime with the points and basically 1 out of 5 things that can happen don't hurt you (tie, fg by dog, fg by fave, td by dog).
However, because of that KC win, its going to be a long time before I can complain about my luck.
Won jags and minny by a hook. Lost ZONA by the same.
Miami was much better than I thought they'd be. I suppose that Cowboys play was a bad add-on. I really thought we'd see a 21-7 affair or something there. Probably not wise to be making plays with so many unknowns, but that's also why I kept it at half a unit.
Impressed with Vick yesterday (who wasn't?). Maybe this is his break-out year because anyone that guy is such an athlete. Already thinking Falcons for next week. Like the Giants, too. I've seen 13. If 14 comes out at SIA, I'm probably on it.
I need the pats tonight to start the season ahead.
Edited after MNF. ----------------------
+1 unit for week. I'll take it. 6-5.
1-0 totals.
4-5 ATS
1-0 ML bets.
New England +2.5 (+1)
Dallas -8.5 (.5 unit) (-.55)
KC SU +140 (+1.4)
Minn +4.5 -110 (+1)
Sea +7 -105 (-1.05)
Buff +3 +105 (-1)
Det +8.5 -110 (-1.1)
Jax +3.5 -110 (+1)
Arz +7.5 -120 (-1.2)
Sea o41 -110 (.5 unit) (+.5)
Up 4.9. Down 4.9
Dead even going into tonights game.
The jets game is frustrating because you go into overtime with the points and basically 1 out of 5 things that can happen don't hurt you (tie, fg by dog, fg by fave, td by dog).
However, because of that KC win, its going to be a long time before I can complain about my luck.
Won jags and minny by a hook. Lost ZONA by the same.
Miami was much better than I thought they'd be. I suppose that Cowboys play was a bad add-on. I really thought we'd see a 21-7 affair or something there. Probably not wise to be making plays with so many unknowns, but that's also why I kept it at half a unit.
Impressed with Vick yesterday (who wasn't?). Maybe this is his break-out year because anyone that guy is such an athlete. Already thinking Falcons for next week. Like the Giants, too. I've seen 13. If 14 comes out at SIA, I'm probably on it.
I need the pats tonight to start the season ahead.
Edited after MNF. ----------------------
+1 unit for week. I'll take it. 6-5.
1-0 totals.
4-5 ATS
1-0 ML bets.
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