Record: 22-8 +2638
Alright, let's see if I can do this without completely losing my ass like last time. A couple to start with and a couple leans that may be plays later...
Boston ML 270/200 - First things first, Boston is a terrible road team. I would probably be going bigger on this game if that weren't the case. Having said that, the numbers certainly favor the BoSox in this one. Schilling has been pitching well this year and he has good numbers against the O's the last few years (4-1 3.10 ERA with a .237 BAA). The O's have a pretty good lineup but, then again, they just got shut down by a minor league pitcher yesterday so I guess I shouldn't worry about that too much.
Cabrera is a guy I've never been real impressed with. People seem to love the guy because he throws hard and, at times, can pitch very well. While this may be true, the guy has absolutely no control whatsoever. Although Cabrera has a very respectable 4.25 ERA at Camden he has a 6.55 ERA in April and is 1-6 with a 9.27 ERA against the Sox. Like I said, the numbers seem to favor Boston in this one. Unfortunately, they have a tendency to not show up when they're on the road, so I can't make this a bigger play.
Braves ML 387.50/250 - I'm making this a bigger play than the Sox game. Not because of the way Hudson is pitching, in fact I think he's due for a bad outing, but because the Braves are just crushing the ball and think they will get to Olsen. Hudson is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.56 against the Fish in his career. There are a few guys that hit him well (Ramirez, Cabrera) but for the most part he has good numbers against them.
Olsen has only pitched against the Braves 4 times but the numbers aren't good. 1-2 with a 9.88 ERA in 14 2/3 innings. He's also walked 8 guys in those 14 2/3 innings. Olsen is another guy who doesn't have great control and one of my favorite things to do is to bet against pitchers that don't throw strikes. They create jams for themselves and are always working in "hitter's counts." Both Cabrera and Olsen are those types of pitcher.
Leans - I love fading Seattle and tonight may be a good night to go against them. Although Blanton didn't pitch well against them in his first start this year, he has great career numbers against them. Also, Washburn on the road is nowhere near as good as he is at home. Swisher is one of the few good A's hitters and he'll be out of the lineup, which is definitely a hit. May take this one later, still debating it.
Angels -1.5 - This should be a laugher. Lackey is pitching his ass off this year and Edwin Jackson is... Edwin Jackson. Of course, he did somehow manage to shut down the Indians the last time he pitched. The ML is currently -230 and there's just no way I'm laying that kind of juice. The RL is -115, which is a decent line considering the Halos have a huge advantage in this one. Their bullpen is completely wiped out from yesterday's game and the Weaver debacle, but if they get out to a big lead early it shouldn't matter.
Good luck all...
Alright, let's see if I can do this without completely losing my ass like last time. A couple to start with and a couple leans that may be plays later...
Boston ML 270/200 - First things first, Boston is a terrible road team. I would probably be going bigger on this game if that weren't the case. Having said that, the numbers certainly favor the BoSox in this one. Schilling has been pitching well this year and he has good numbers against the O's the last few years (4-1 3.10 ERA with a .237 BAA). The O's have a pretty good lineup but, then again, they just got shut down by a minor league pitcher yesterday so I guess I shouldn't worry about that too much.
Cabrera is a guy I've never been real impressed with. People seem to love the guy because he throws hard and, at times, can pitch very well. While this may be true, the guy has absolutely no control whatsoever. Although Cabrera has a very respectable 4.25 ERA at Camden he has a 6.55 ERA in April and is 1-6 with a 9.27 ERA against the Sox. Like I said, the numbers seem to favor Boston in this one. Unfortunately, they have a tendency to not show up when they're on the road, so I can't make this a bigger play.
Braves ML 387.50/250 - I'm making this a bigger play than the Sox game. Not because of the way Hudson is pitching, in fact I think he's due for a bad outing, but because the Braves are just crushing the ball and think they will get to Olsen. Hudson is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.56 against the Fish in his career. There are a few guys that hit him well (Ramirez, Cabrera) but for the most part he has good numbers against them.
Olsen has only pitched against the Braves 4 times but the numbers aren't good. 1-2 with a 9.88 ERA in 14 2/3 innings. He's also walked 8 guys in those 14 2/3 innings. Olsen is another guy who doesn't have great control and one of my favorite things to do is to bet against pitchers that don't throw strikes. They create jams for themselves and are always working in "hitter's counts." Both Cabrera and Olsen are those types of pitcher.
Leans - I love fading Seattle and tonight may be a good night to go against them. Although Blanton didn't pitch well against them in his first start this year, he has great career numbers against them. Also, Washburn on the road is nowhere near as good as he is at home. Swisher is one of the few good A's hitters and he'll be out of the lineup, which is definitely a hit. May take this one later, still debating it.
Angels -1.5 - This should be a laugher. Lackey is pitching his ass off this year and Edwin Jackson is... Edwin Jackson. Of course, he did somehow manage to shut down the Indians the last time he pitched. The ML is currently -230 and there's just no way I'm laying that kind of juice. The RL is -115, which is a decent line considering the Halos have a huge advantage in this one. Their bullpen is completely wiped out from yesterday's game and the Weaver debacle, but if they get out to a big lead early it shouldn't matter.
Good luck all...
