2 units cleveland state (+15.5) over st.bonaventure
there are two keys ive found for betting st.bonaventure and cleveland state over the last few years.
the teams that give st.bonaventure major problems are the teams that are very physical and play sound defense (which limits the bonnies 3-pt shooting and run-you-into-the-ground tempo). csu has been really pathetic offensively this year- but they find ways to stay in games because rollie has them playing solid defense. sometimes, watching their gms is equivalent to watching paint dry- because on offense, csu is a nightmare, but on defense- they really get after it and play aggressive. not the most aesthetically pleasing games, but the vikings normally give their bettors their moneys worth (a full 40:00 effort, save for their brutal 2h effort vs detroit at home last saturday)
the teams that give csu problems are also sound defensive teams, but for different reasons. not because csu cant match the physical play of their opponent (which is the bonnies weakness) but csu has problems with sound defensive teams, because- well, they just dont have a ton of scorers. burge is emerging as their go to guy as he looks a lot more comfortable in the offense after transferring into the program. and niakate can score a little, but really thats all theyve got. when csu goes up against lock-down defenses, they are in a world of trouble.
fortunately for csu, st bonny provides a game where:
1) csu will probably out-physical sbu enough to control the tempo and not let the bonnies get a ton of 3's and play at a breakneck tempo.
2) the bonnies matador defense will provide csu with a reasonable chance to stay with 9-12 points the whole game.
i could be dead wrong here. csu is a hard team to figure out, because their scoring comes and goes from game to game. but i do think csu hangs inside the big number because i dont think the bonnies will have the game played at their pace. massimino is an idiot if he tries to run with sbu. i think he knows he stands a reasonable chance to stay in the game if the vikings play at the csu pace (game in the 60's) but could get blown out if played at the sbu pace (game in the 80's)
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2 units lsu (+1) over florida
basically, i feel like the line tells me the play here. tigers are 1-4 in the sec. gators are en fuego right now. but line is basically a pick 'em to +1/-1 in some places. not only is florida a heavy public choice here- but its worth noting that the gators have been really dodging bullets on the road this year. needed overtime to beat a lame florida state team. losing outright to a pathetic west virginia team. and trailing at the half of the rest of their road games. while i guess its a "glass half full/half empty" kind of thing (gators having strong 2nd halves after trailing going in), i just dont think you can keep trailing at the half and expecting to "turn it on and win" in the 2h on the road in the sec. you can only dodge so many bullets. gators clawing out wins late in these gms, but i dont think they survive tonight. #4 should go down. line really beggin for gator action. but tigers should get another big home win.
gl
there are two keys ive found for betting st.bonaventure and cleveland state over the last few years.
the teams that give st.bonaventure major problems are the teams that are very physical and play sound defense (which limits the bonnies 3-pt shooting and run-you-into-the-ground tempo). csu has been really pathetic offensively this year- but they find ways to stay in games because rollie has them playing solid defense. sometimes, watching their gms is equivalent to watching paint dry- because on offense, csu is a nightmare, but on defense- they really get after it and play aggressive. not the most aesthetically pleasing games, but the vikings normally give their bettors their moneys worth (a full 40:00 effort, save for their brutal 2h effort vs detroit at home last saturday)
the teams that give csu problems are also sound defensive teams, but for different reasons. not because csu cant match the physical play of their opponent (which is the bonnies weakness) but csu has problems with sound defensive teams, because- well, they just dont have a ton of scorers. burge is emerging as their go to guy as he looks a lot more comfortable in the offense after transferring into the program. and niakate can score a little, but really thats all theyve got. when csu goes up against lock-down defenses, they are in a world of trouble.
fortunately for csu, st bonny provides a game where:
1) csu will probably out-physical sbu enough to control the tempo and not let the bonnies get a ton of 3's and play at a breakneck tempo.
2) the bonnies matador defense will provide csu with a reasonable chance to stay with 9-12 points the whole game.
i could be dead wrong here. csu is a hard team to figure out, because their scoring comes and goes from game to game. but i do think csu hangs inside the big number because i dont think the bonnies will have the game played at their pace. massimino is an idiot if he tries to run with sbu. i think he knows he stands a reasonable chance to stay in the game if the vikings play at the csu pace (game in the 60's) but could get blown out if played at the sbu pace (game in the 80's)
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2 units lsu (+1) over florida
basically, i feel like the line tells me the play here. tigers are 1-4 in the sec. gators are en fuego right now. but line is basically a pick 'em to +1/-1 in some places. not only is florida a heavy public choice here- but its worth noting that the gators have been really dodging bullets on the road this year. needed overtime to beat a lame florida state team. losing outright to a pathetic west virginia team. and trailing at the half of the rest of their road games. while i guess its a "glass half full/half empty" kind of thing (gators having strong 2nd halves after trailing going in), i just dont think you can keep trailing at the half and expecting to "turn it on and win" in the 2h on the road in the sec. you can only dodge so many bullets. gators clawing out wins late in these gms, but i dont think they survive tonight. #4 should go down. line really beggin for gator action. but tigers should get another big home win.
gl
