Two Props for MNF

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superbook

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Jerome Bettis -5.5 rushing yards -140 (vs Edgerrin James)

I don't like to play a lot of chalk on props but this one seems worth it.

Colts are #27 in run D and I think PIT will run a lot tonite to try to keep Manning off the field.

The Bus is prime time on MNF: he has run for 100+ in 8 of his 10 Monday night games.

James has been struggling and he averaged under 3 ypc in each of the past 2 games, including only 43 yards last Sunday vs BAL.

Plus I think Bettis will get many more carries than James since Manning will be focused on trying to take advantage of PIT's weak secondary.

Tommy Maddox Under 18 pass completions -105

Last week's start vs the Bungles was only Maddox's second NFL start since 1992. Maddox connected on 16 of 25 including eight to Burress.

Colts D is #2 in the league against the pass and they are #1 in terms of the lowest number of pass completions allowed. And with PIT focused on running the ball to eat up the clock, I don't think Maddox will get that many pass attempts and IND D will hold him under 18 complete.


gl
 
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1837

1837

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Somewhere South of Quebec and North of Boston...
My big prop today would be:

Steelers -0.5 sack -125 over Indianapolis Intertops (4 units)

17 sacks for the steelers while Indy just managed 10 this season. Steelers at home, pump up, let's say 4-5 sacks for the Steelers tonight and 2-3 for the colts? ;)
 
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superbook

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johnnnyonthespot --

I personally wouldn't take Over 5.

Over 5 means Six.

Seems like that is at the high end of 1837's guesstimates.

I'd feel a lot more comfortable with Over 4.

But not at -200.

- Jon
 
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loophole

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about that bettis rushing prop - isn't bettis still nursing a sore knee? if so, likely to see a lot of zeroue tonight?
 
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bosco

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Hey Guys,

was just looking at some stats and here are some stats from the first five games:

Bettis- 70 rushes for 293 yards
James-120 rushes for 428 yards

Its hard to compare apples to apples on this one, but just thought I'd throw this out.

GL
 
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superbook

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Oct. 18: Over the last two games, Bettis has carried the ball 40 times for 193 yards and three touchdowns and this week he will be working against the 27th-ranked Indianapolis run defense (137.0 yards a game). With the Colts' pass defense much improved and quarterback Tommy Maddox, who threw two interceptions last week, getting the start again, look for Bettis to get 20-plus carries and use his combination of size and power to wear down the Indianapolis front seven on his way to a big day. (The War Room)


Bettis has been increasing number of carries each game since the start of the season:

By game (carries/yards): 8/35, 10/41, 14/24, 19/84, 21/109


While The Edge's numbers have been going in the opposite direction:

Oct. 17: The running game is an area of concern for the Colts. After generating 243 yards the first two games, the James-led attack has been in a steady retreat - 88 yards at Houston, 87 versus Cincinnati, 60 in last Sunday's win over Baltimore. Don't point to James' surgically repaired left knee. The problem has been inconsistent play by the offensive line. It's hard to imagine things improving dramatically Monday in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have had trouble stopping the pass but are limiting opposing offenses to 96 rushing yards per game. The offensive line needs to be more explosive off the ball. It's getting very little push off the line of scrimmage and allowing too much penetration. (Mike Chappell/TSN)
 
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