UFC 83 - April 19th Montreal, Quebec, Canada

kickserv

kickserv

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layinwood......odds as of Monday night at 5dimes:


Rich Franklin -360
Travis Lutter +300


and as expected odds have gone way down on GSP since they came out 2.5 months ago......will probably pay 1 cent by fight time:mj07:
 
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rawli007

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layinwood said:
What's the line on the Franklin fight. I think he takes Lutter in this one. You can say what you want but Rich has dominated in most of his fights. yeah he lost to Anderson Silva but I don't count it against him. Anderson(in my opinion) is fighting as well as anyone ever has at any weight. Rich should be able to pound on Lutter without a problem.
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layinwood, u r absolutely right that Franklin has a good chance to win the fight.. but with respect to the line, i feel like Lutter is the better play... i got him at +300..

Anderson Silva is incredible in every sense of the word, but Franklin has already said that a third fight with Silva just wouldnt be too interesting for the fans (and he is right). So.. what does Franklin really have to look forward to??

i know Travis Lutter's game is almost purely ground-oriented, but Lutter is a guy who is smart enough to play to his strengths.. if he can put Franklin on the ground, Franklin could very well be submitted. If Lutter cant put Rich on the ground, then he is probably in trouble...
 
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BUCSnotYUCKS

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layinwood said:
What's the line on the Franklin fight. I think he takes Lutter in this one. You can say what you want but Rich has dominated in most of his fights. yeah he lost to Anderson Silva but I don't count it against him. Anderson(in my opinion) is fighting as well as anyone ever has at any weight. Rich should be able to pound on Lutter without a problem.
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Pretty much sums it up for me.

Franklin isn't a younger guy who isn't experienced, nor doesn't know how to bounce back from a fight.

Lutter isn't even a top 10 middleweight, IMO. He's so 1 dimentional.
 
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rawli007 said:
layinwood, u r absolutely right that Franklin has a good chance to win the fight.. but with respect to the line, i feel like Lutter is the better play... i got him at +300..

Anderson Silva is incredible in every sense of the word, but Franklin has already said that a third fight with Silva just wouldnt be too interesting for the fans (and he is right). So.. what does Franklin really have to look forward to??

i know Travis Lutter's game is almost purely ground-oriented, but Lutter is a guy who is smart enough to play to his strengths.. if he can put Franklin on the ground, Franklin could very well be submitted. If Lutter cant put Rich on the ground, then he is probably in trouble...
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If Lutter was facing a pure striker, or a guy who's not as well versed in submissions(Silva). Some people might not know it, but Silva is a former Chute Boxing guy(Rua boys, Wandy, Gonzaga, Thiago Silva,etc..) These guys are primarily strikers, while they might have some success on the ground, they much rather stand up and exchange punches.

Lutter looked "over good" if that's a such thing, against Silva. I don't think anyone who knows Anderson Silva and has watched him closely and watched that fight, was too worried when Lutter was on top. Those punches he was throwin looked like bitch slaps LOL
 
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BUCSnotYUCKS said:
Pretty much sums it up for me.

Franklin isn't a younger guy who isn't experienced, nor doesn't know how to bounce back from a fight.

Lutter isn't even a top 10 middleweight, IMO. He's so 1 dimentional.
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These arent just normal losses, though.. how can it be easy for anyone to bounce back from not just a loss, but facial reconstructive surgery... Franklin had to have multiple pieces of metal put in his nose after his first loss to Anderson... and Lutter, though one dimensional, has shown that he has the takedown skills to take a fight to the ground.

if i were just picking a winner at even odds i would go with Franklin, but under the circumstances im loving Lutter at 3 to 1.
 
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BUCSnotYUCKS said:
If Lutter was facing a pure striker, or a guy who's not as well versed in submissions(Silva). Some people might not know it, but Silva is a former Chute Boxing guy(Rua boys, Wandy, Gonzaga, Thiago Silva,etc..) These guys are primarily strikers, while they might have some success on the ground, they much rather stand up and exchange punches.

Lutter looked "over good" if that's a such thing, against Silva. I don't think anyone who knows Anderson Silva and has watched him closely and watched that fight, was too worried when Lutter was on top. Those punches he was throwin looked like bitch slaps LOL
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I agree, Silva was never in danger against Lutter, but in all fairness, Lutter did better than Franklin did both times.. AND Lutter looked like a cancer patient stepping into the ring against Silva... he was clearly drained from overcutting and still not making weight...

Also, u have to give Lutter credit for fighting to his strengths against Silva.. he put Anderson on the ground which is what he wanted to do. Franklin, on the other hand, decided to get his ass beaten TWICE in a striking match with Silva.
 
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layinwood

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Wait a second guys, THE ONLY reason Silva had issues in the Lutter fight was because he just had surgery on his knees and could barely walk. People that saw him after the fight said he looked like a cripled old man trying to walk. that explains why Lutter took him down at will. then he still couldn't beat him.

Lutter is ok but that fight made people think he is better than he is.
 
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Lutter is a good value bet. Rich is a much better all around fighter but Lutter is far superior in one aspect, grappling. Sometimes that's all it takes.

Good luck all.
 
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weepaul/raw:

Agree that in MMA wagering it is almost all about the odds, and the Franklin fight is no different. Odds are good on Lutter. But as stated earlier, let us make sure Lutter makes weight first! And with that being said, I think Franklin wins, but odds aren't that great. Have to consider the odds before ya wager on any MMA fight. The record means nothing, it is all about if ya made money or not. Many UFC's I have had a losing record but plus money:00hour But as I said, I think Franklin gets it done, I'll probably put him in a parlay or two:SIB Also agree with others on the board, think this will be a good UFC for doggies:SIB Big odds = Big payday:SIB


and weepaul/1837.........make sure ya boo Serra for me (still pissed that you guys are going...so jealous...so jealous!)


http://mmajunkie.com/news/4143/serra-not-afraid-to-play-villains-role.mma
 
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adding a wager.....so it looks like this now:


MMA Record (since UFC 58)
--------------------------------------

Prop Bet 13-5
Fighter vs. Fighter 56-46
Parlays 24-24

+75.74 Joe Rogans:00hour


Parlay #1
------------------
GSP
Bocek

odds =$5.87 *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay #2
----------------
GSP
Starnes

odds =$4.17 *1 Joe Rogan


St. Pierre wins inside distance $1.35 *4.5 Joe Rogans
 
BUCSnotYUCKS

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I don't think disreguarding the odds has anything to do with just looking at someone's record.

However, there are usually 3-4 fights per UFC event that I can gurantee just purely based on matchups.
 
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kickserv said:
weepaul/raw:

Agree that in MMA wagering it is almost all about the odds, and the Franklin fight is no different. Odds are good on Lutter. But as stated earlier, let us make sure Lutter makes weight first! And with that being said, I think Franklin wins, but odds aren't that great. Have to consider the odds before ya wager on any MMA fight. The record means nothing, it is all about if ya made money or not. Many UFC's I have had a losing record but plus money:00hour But as I said, I think Franklin gets it done, I'll probably put him in a parlay or two:SIB Also agree with others on the board, think this will be a good UFC for doggies:SIB Big odds = Big payday:SIB
Click to expand...

This is what it comes down to.. makin the money.. in a sport so unpredictable these underdogs can be very profitable... with little risk.

And until i get a piece of my bankroll into 5 dimes im unable to make MMA parlays. So for this event im loving the big dogs. although i may miss completely, one win will put me in the green. :eek: :brows: :grins: :shade:
 
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The best time to do big parlays are during the TUF show finale. I've made huge off of them. If you follow the show, and then see the matchups for the finale show, there are so many easy winners.

Maybe it's just me, but I just like taking a few picks that I'm confident in and feel like there's no risk LOL. But I can definately see why you'd go with odds. No brainer.
 
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muhr said:
I have small bets on Starnes +276 and Lutter +331.

I'm hoping Clementi isn't too much of a favorite, I think he's close to a lock.
Click to expand...

I'm going to have to downgrade my confidence in Clementi. I made the above comment without the benefit of seeing Stout's recent fight with Per.

It appears Stout has improved his wrestling and grappling considerably, both skills of which I thought Clementi would have a large advantage in. I still think Clementi has the advantage there, as Per isn't on the same level as him, but not as much as before.

Another line I'll be looking at is Cain Velasquez vs. Brad Morris. Cain only has 2 fights, only 1 of them of which I?ve seen, but he is big and has an impressive wrestling background. He's dynamic, has a high workrate and everyone who's familiar with him raves about his abilities, particularly his wrestling and athleticism. He trains alongside Koscheck and Fitch at AKA, both of whom are also very complementary. I've only seen him take a single punch, so his durability is a question mark, but he's said to take a good strike in sparring without difficulty.

I've only seen a Brad Morris highlite clip, and based on that, Cain's unrelenting wrestling would pose and big problem for him.

Perhaps somewhat of a blind bet, but I don't think this is a similar case of Houston Alexander type hype. Houston's background is as a radio DJ, whereas Cain's hype is as a legitimate college athlete.

One more I'll be looking at his Hironaka over Goulet.
 
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Im excited to see the Cain Velasquez line myself.. his wrestling is top notch and he has made the transition to MMA look easy so far. I think the UFC wants to get him off to a good start with a win.:SIB
 
kickserv

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good info muhr......thanks......now 5dimes usually lightning fast with lines on the prelims, should be out by Wed I'd hope. All over Jason Day I tell ya:0corn
 
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