Ugly plays

[JEFF]

These are some fugly-ass plays, but I like em nonetheless...

tease: NYJ +12.5, Denver -1.5, 4*
NYG +3.5, 3*
Balt over 33, 3*

maybe back later with one or two more, still looking at a few things.

ytd 39-30, +24.6*

 

[gardenweasel]

curious

curious

about the dolphins over play......i know the under is low and a big public lean...but,rationally,i have trouble making the case for the over.....i see a battle of field goals...the raven`s offensive line will struggle protecting wright,who isn`t real accurate to begin with...

griese is starting,i think,isn`t he?

g.l.

 

[GM]

Two good defences though...could be some defensive scoring. I haven't bet it yet, but always figured 33 to be too low a total for any NFL game. If anything doesn't go according to script, you've got an Over.

Since '98, in all games where the total was 35? or lower:

87 Overs, 73 Unders, 2 Pushes. Avg. Points scored = 37.8

So far this year, 5 Overs, 1 Under on games in this range.

Good luck Jeff.

 

[gardenweasel]

good points,gm

good points,gm

and stats are great...but you also have to factor current circumstances into the equation...like poor and inexperienced qb`ing...teams that like to run and teams that stop the run....

you are right...these teams could score defensively....anything can happen....

if fiedler were starting,i wouldn`t touch this one(can`t believe i just said that )....whatever....it could go either way...

g.l. to you both...

 

[GM]

And U2 gardenweasel...

But I guess my point is...factors like this are going to exist in any game where the total is 33. Just to get a # this low, you've got to have a couple of pretty inept offences and good defences.

I saw a game a few years back...Bears vs someone...I forget who. But the total ended up going off at 31?, the lowest I've ever seen. And I believe there were something like 48 pts scored that day. You never know.

 

[gardenweasel]

excellent points,g

excellent points,g

i live in b`more,so i`ll be forced to watch this one....maybe not flashy,but it should be a dogfight...g.l.

jeff...sorry for hijacking your thread.....g.l.

 

[GM]

Stuck watching Balt/Mia...ouch...

Stuck watching Balt/Mia...ouch...

Time to get a dish maybe?

Good luck to you both today.

 

[theGibber1]

best of luck Jeff!

 

[game on!]

Good work GM and weasel. Allways look forward to your thoughts. I agree with you both on this game. Which of course makes no sense at all. LOL

Think that game maybe been Tampa and Chicago GM?

That sounds right too about the score. A shootout

This qb Wright of the ravens he any good?

GL 2 u 2

game on!

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

gl today

 

[JEFF]

Hey fellas, thanks for the well wishes and sorry it took me so long to respond.

The reason I took the over is because of the way they match up. Both teams will be seling out to stop the run all game, which will leave chances in the passing game. Theer could also very well be a defensive or ST touchdown. 33 is such a low number i't will only take one good quarter to give you a good shot at it. I could get screwed for getting cute here on this one, but I felt like it was one of those where you go against the prevailing wisdom.

Then again, it ain't looking too hoot right now.
:shrug:

 

[JEFF]

looking like a crappy day...

looking like a crappy day...

Bungals 2h +3.5, 4*

Bengals are dominating this game and controlling the ball. I think they're going to win.

 

[JEFF]

Jets +6.5, 3*
Broncs -8, 3*
Buccs -3.5, 3*

 

[JEFF]

Two more halftimes I like a lot...don't like to post a million plays...

GB/TB over 20, 3*
Denver pick, 3*

TB is going to abandon the run and throw the ball around. This is desperation time. Favre and Gb will get into the endzone at least once.

SD is getting dominated and should quit. Hopefully they'll bring sorry ass Drew Brees in there. Even if Denver gets conservative they'll keep running the ball succesfully down the field. Not sure if SD is going to score in this game.

 

[JEFF]

Dallas +5, 3*

Contrarian play. I'll side with the man here. Might want to fade me though, bad day so far at 4-5, -2.4*.

 

[GM]

Good luck Jeff.

Rough day here too...out-thought myself a bit today I think. So many dogs covered and of course, which dogs am I on? All the wrong ones. Arizona, Giants, Detroit, etc. :banghead: Brilliant. 1:00 was brutal; got some back @ 4:00.

I do think the Boys are a decent play tonight though. Hopefully them + SF get me back to even (no, not chasing).

Cheers.