Under looking even better for NE Buff

JustFootball

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Sep 24, 2004
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As most here know, rain and snow are not the biggest threats to the passing (or kicking) game. It's wind. Tonight's forecast in Buffalo has been trending down and the latest indicates a real issue--

?Forecast is getting even windier for tomorrow night,? said Patriots beat writer Chris Mason. ?Up to 25-35 mph with gusts over 40.?

Given, these guys are pros so it's not like they have no ability to manage shorter passes etc. But a few things jump out at me--drives will be more grinding (fewer big passing plays), field goals won't be attempted unless they are chippies, and I kinda like NE a little more if Buff has to lean on their running game.

Anyway, my main takeaway is that I think the under (already a lean 41) will only come down as we get closer to game and that there is decent value in under for the game. I am playing it 2x my normal bet (for me, 3x or 4x are really big bets for me--I don't do any 10x bets).

:0008
 

freelancc

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Aug 18, 2002
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As most here know, rain and snow are not the biggest threats to the passing (or kicking) game. It's wind. Tonight's forecast in Buffalo has been trending down and the latest indicates a real issue--

?Forecast is getting even windier for tomorrow night,? said Patriots beat writer Chris Mason. ?Up to 25-35 mph with gusts over 40.?

Given, these guys are pros so it's not like they have no ability to manage shorter passes etc. But a few things jump out at me--drives will be more grinding (fewer big passing plays), field goals won't be attempted unless they are chippies, and I kinda like NE a little more if Buff has to lean on their running game.

Anyway, my main takeaway is that I think the under (already a lean 41) will only come down as we get closer to game and that there is decent value in under for the game. I am playing it 2x my normal bet (for me, 3x or 4x are really big bets for me--I don't do any 10x bets).

:0008

thanks for sharing...:0008
 

Old School

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Mar 19, 2006
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As most here know, rain and snow are not the biggest threats to the passing (or kicking) game. It's wind. Tonight's forecast in Buffalo has been trending down and the latest indicates a real issue--

?Forecast is getting even windier for tomorrow night,? said Patriots beat writer Chris Mason. ?Up to 25-35 mph with gusts over 40.?

Given, these guys are pros so it's not like they have no ability to manage shorter passes etc. But a few things jump out at me--drives will be more grinding (fewer big passing plays), field goals won't be attempted unless they are chippies, and I kinda like NE a little more if Buff has to lean on their running game.

Anyway, my main takeaway is that I think the under (already a lean 41) will only come down as we get closer to game and that there is decent value in under for the game. I am playing it 2x my normal bet (for me, 3x or 4x are really big bets for me--I don't do any 10x bets).

:0008

total holding steady at 41 for now...

latest from the weather channels

http://nflweather.com/en/game/2021/week-13/patriots-at-bills

8:00 pm
36?
Partly Cloudy/Wind
13%
W 27 mph


9:00 pm
35?
Partly Cloudy/Wind
14%
W 26 mph


10:00 pm
34?
Partly Cloudy/Wind
5%
W 23 mph


11:00 pm
33?
Partly Cloudy/Wind
2%
W 22 mph

wind chill in the teens
 

Statman02

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Jan 29, 2000
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With this number dropping like a rock, I wonder why more people don't consider going over........all I see is people saying there is still value on the under......what happened to contrarianism ?
 

UMRebel

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Mar 14, 2001
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With this number dropping like a rock, I wonder why more people don't consider going over........all I see is people saying there is still value on the under......what happened to contrarianism ?

Contrarian is for public picks. This is weather related. Wind is the biggest factor!
 
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